After reading the thread, i found interesting that you have the same terminology as mine.
1. About price prediction, it is good to know which direction would the price head to, so you can control the trade. Let me share more about this, i define this as S/R structure (Support resistance structure), and of course only 2 outcome exist, either price does break out the S/R price or stay inside the S/R price. The fact is price will move/swing, it won't stop and stay at the same area for long time, as long as the area is appropriate in relation with time. So from here, you can work with your SL and TP to achieve a good reward to risk ratio. So you would gain in long run. One thing, there are 2 risk would destroy this structure, which are the spread and volatility with uncertain direction. So in order to have the optimal S/R structure, spread must be low, and area must be a appropriate distant. It is not necessary to have the defined structure as similar as support resistance.
2. There is no way to predict future price movement in smaller time frame. However, we can use the information from bigger time frame to determine the expected movement. Logically, trend and S/R are the valid information/signal from bigger time frame. Why? Because the trend can persist its direction for quite a long time after i did some trend analysis myself, and statistically data proves that there is an average x pips distant between beginning signal and ending of signal for y time. For S/R, which is almost similar scenario in number 1 above.
3. About probability and MM, of course we couldn't control the probability of one system. However, we could control RR (Reward to risk ratio). According to expectancy formula, i am not to show the formula here, you may have many variation/combination, as long as it is a positive expectancy, then the system works. To tell little about RR controlling, it is possible to produce various of good RR, from 1.0 to unlimited value, and of course it depend on market availability. Meaning to say, if you can build a model/structure, which it could produce several possible RR outcome, and let market to get it, then your system would make money because of the good expectancy. This idea is originally from S/R structure, and this can be done from deep studies.
4. About a system probability, i believe there is a high accurate system out there. I am still looking it. In my experience, and from the study of expectancy, the condition of a profitable system either is the system probability is suck with a good RR, or the system probability is good with a bad RR, or both are the perfect value. Although now i can make money due to my knowledge of controlled RR with a lousy system, but i am looking for a good system probability. Then it would be perfect for me.
Anyway, i think this is a good thread for me to look for, and help other as well.
Thanks.
1. About price prediction, it is good to know which direction would the price head to, so you can control the trade. Let me share more about this, i define this as S/R structure (Support resistance structure), and of course only 2 outcome exist, either price does break out the S/R price or stay inside the S/R price. The fact is price will move/swing, it won't stop and stay at the same area for long time, as long as the area is appropriate in relation with time. So from here, you can work with your SL and TP to achieve a good reward to risk ratio. So you would gain in long run. One thing, there are 2 risk would destroy this structure, which are the spread and volatility with uncertain direction. So in order to have the optimal S/R structure, spread must be low, and area must be a appropriate distant. It is not necessary to have the defined structure as similar as support resistance.
2. There is no way to predict future price movement in smaller time frame. However, we can use the information from bigger time frame to determine the expected movement. Logically, trend and S/R are the valid information/signal from bigger time frame. Why? Because the trend can persist its direction for quite a long time after i did some trend analysis myself, and statistically data proves that there is an average x pips distant between beginning signal and ending of signal for y time. For S/R, which is almost similar scenario in number 1 above.
3. About probability and MM, of course we couldn't control the probability of one system. However, we could control RR (Reward to risk ratio). According to expectancy formula, i am not to show the formula here, you may have many variation/combination, as long as it is a positive expectancy, then the system works. To tell little about RR controlling, it is possible to produce various of good RR, from 1.0 to unlimited value, and of course it depend on market availability. Meaning to say, if you can build a model/structure, which it could produce several possible RR outcome, and let market to get it, then your system would make money because of the good expectancy. This idea is originally from S/R structure, and this can be done from deep studies.
4. About a system probability, i believe there is a high accurate system out there. I am still looking it. In my experience, and from the study of expectancy, the condition of a profitable system either is the system probability is suck with a good RR, or the system probability is good with a bad RR, or both are the perfect value. Although now i can make money due to my knowledge of controlled RR with a lousy system, but i am looking for a good system probability. Then it would be perfect for me.
Anyway, i think this is a good thread for me to look for, and help other as well.
Thanks.
Now if what he typed above shouldn't be backed up with proof, then I don't know what should. Then again. Selling EA's sure does earn more money then trading. 
