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My path to heaven or hell

  • #21
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:46am Jul 15, 2013 5:46am
Quoting Danny Maina
Hey Pemully, How is the progress for the first half of July? DAnny
I'm down from 21% to 16%. hope to end up at least 20% for this month.My system can do it. I'm the weak point. will update with T.E at end month.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #22
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:48am Jul 15, 2013 5:48am
Quoting Masterm1nd
MIXED REACTION WITH YOUR MOVE!!...
I feel the same too!
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #23
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:52am Jul 16, 2013 11:52am
guys,I have run out of margin again, this is tragic. 1:20 can't do it for me.Will have to probably look at fxcm which allows 1:200.

oanda restricts Kenyan clients to oanda Asia which sucks coz their UK branch has 1:50 leverage and commodities cfds which would have been great for diversification as my system can trade any instrument.
damn.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #24
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:01pm Jul 16, 2013 1:01pm
Welcome to Hell.
Chance favors the prepared
  • #25
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:36pm Jul 16, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting JohnW
Welcome to Hell.
not yet....will open new account in August since its usually a crappy month to trade coz of holidays.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #26
  • Jul 27, 2013 2:29am Jul 27, 2013 2:29am
I thought I should update since its almost month end.As you can see this month ended well.I
endured a drawdown of nearly 13% but I just kept on swinging when opportunities presented themselves and ended up on new equity highs.
I have decided to lower my leverage to 2.5% which is more realistic. I almost saw the grim reaper with his scythe when risking ¼ Kelly.I know I'm still a gunslinger with such a position size.
My trading is becoming more discretionary,about 70% of my trades are taken on my real time assessment of the market.I believe the brain is the most complex machine and will out do all mechanical systems,coz it can adapt to the market dynamics and evolve faster than any algorithms.

I have still much to learn,but its great to learn while my account is still growing. So far I have a seven month winning streak (including a previous account) I hope this is no gamblers luck.I believe if I sustain this momentum for at least 3yrs with minimal risk I could consider calling myself a pro trader.

There is still many peaks and valleys I have to pass through.

Yours riding the lightning,

Pemully
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #27
  • Jul 27, 2013 3:21am Jul 27, 2013 3:21am
I remember testing a version of this system on a simulator a year ago on the 5 minutes charts. The stats after 300 trades were 41%, 3.3:1 W/L.I tried trading the system live and I just imploded,I just couldn't follow the market well enough on lower timeframes.I considered the whole experiment a waste and that I had somehow curve fitted the results.
But after trying many other systems I came to realize that the markets were fractal. If it worked on 5 minutes it ought to work in H1.It turned out true.

With my current stats I do about 15 trades a month at about 50% win and 2 payoff ratio.This means I will be able to make 700% yearly risking 2.5% with a 1% chance of 40% drawdowns.I think that's a good compromise.

It looks ridiculous even though manual backtests showed eye popping results. I will believe it only when I achieve the results,and looking at my month to month results from January,it seems to match the backtest. I honestly don't know what to believe.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #28
  • Jul 27, 2013 3:59am Jul 27, 2013 3:59am
so far it looks very good - 65% !! damn
the system that you are using is something you took from here and is something you manage to achieve by taking parts and ideas from here and put them in something that fits you ?

im asking because so far i didnt see a good system on ff.com....dont get me wrong...many good ideas...but not a single good and well put/explain system

thanks in advance
bradu
  • #29
  • Jul 27, 2013 4:47am Jul 27, 2013 4:47am
Quoting bradu
so far it looks very good - 65% !! damn the system that you are using is something you took from here and is something you manage to achieve by taking parts and ideas from here and put them in something that fits you ? im asking because so far i didnt see a good system on ff.com....dont get me wrong...many good ideas...but not a single good and well put/explain system thanks in advance bradu
There is a lot profitable concepts in FF.I think by well explained system you mean totally mechanical, like buy when this indicator crosses this point etc. This kind of systems are nearly worthless. They are curve fitted and will fail or produce meager results that are not worth the effort.

All I needed to find was if the market trends and can this tendency be exploited.After comprehensively researching this proposition, I found it true and started to design a system to exploit this phenomenon.

This method is nothing new,infact it has existed in various forms from the beginning of the markets.The trick is to build a system totally compatible with you to exploit this tendency that has existed for centuries.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #30
  • Jul 27, 2013 5:08am Jul 27, 2013 5:08am
thanks for you answer
  • #31
  • Jul 29, 2013 1:39am Jul 29, 2013 1:39am
Quoting pemully
{quote} There is a lot profitable concepts in FF.I think by well explained system you mean totally mechanical, like buy when this indicator crosses this point etc. This kind of systems are nearly worthless. They are curve fitted and will fail or produce meager results that are not worth the effort. All I needed to find was if the market trends and can this tendency be exploited.After comprehensively researching this proposition, I found it true and started to design a system to exploit this phenomenon. This method is nothing new,infact it has existed...
Hello Pemully
The MA cross-overs do work, but of course not to all people and not at all times. If Bradu was in reference to you when he mentioned - 65% is quite scary. Lots of scary English words( wacha mchezo wewe!). Before deciding to burn the bridges, you might want to take some time to develop a new system. Well that's my opinion but am sure you will know what to do. As far as Brokers are concerned, there is a good number of Brokers that can give you 1:100. EasyForex, FXCM and Windsor should work out for a Kenyan.
Wish you luck men!

Danny
  • #32
  • Jul 29, 2013 2:48am Jul 29, 2013 2:48am
he he he.....I think it was +65%....actually its 60% now USD/INR rally has really hammered me.The strategy has two entries one for trending markets and the other for ranging markets.I place limit orders and walk away.What more could I ask from a trading method.Will consider moving to FXCM coz of metal cfds.I don't need much leverage anymore as I have revised the goals. Plus trade interceptor is just a wicked app and not available for Oanda.I am training myself to be able to trade on mobile coz of stealth at job.I had a journal back where I averaged 10+ per month strictly on mobile phone-though I deleted the explorer.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #33
  • Jul 29, 2013 3:00am Jul 29, 2013 3:00am
Quoting pemully
he he he.....I think it was +65%....actually its 60% now USD/INR rally has really hammered me.The strategy has two entries one for trending markets and the other for ranging markets.I place limit orders and walk away.What more could I ask from a trading method.Will consider moving to FXCM coz of metal cfds.I don't need much leverage anymore as I have revised the goals. Plus trade interceptor is just a wicked app and not available for Oanda.I am training myself to be able to trade on mobile coz of stealth at job.I had a journal back where I averaged...
Nice one.
Mobile trading. Just make sure you have at least 7 inches of screen size for that. And don't let your boss catch you trading during work hours.
  • #34
  • Jul 29, 2013 3:19am Jul 29, 2013 3:19am
Quoting Danny Maina
{quote} Nice one. Mobile trading. Just make sure you have at least 7 inches of screen size for that. And don't let your boss catch you trading during work hours.
I have a 4.3" Samsung. I am thinking of getting the 5.5 note.However I have a laptop always connected at home and sends me emailing alerts whenever a suitable level is about to be reached.I have mt4 remote or trade interceptor to confirm whether the setup is viable then set my limit orders. it seem crazy to know I'm beating guys with 10 screens and the best charting and fast internet.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #35
  • Jul 31, 2013 12:16pm Jul 31, 2013 12:16pm
tried to customize T.E and I lost all my previous data as stupid oanda allows only 30 days history. myfxbook strangely shows some two trades that are still open even after closing the trades months ago thus giving inaccurate stats.
so far I cancelled a euraud limit position which would have gained a mind numbing 20%! I would have been up 50%+ right now taking only 2.5% risk.This shows you the potential of my system.Only on April would I have been unable to make 20%+.

I am the only one who stands in the way,always finding ways of sabotaging my success. I guess this is where psychology starts to matter.Its my mind refusing to accept that the results I'm achieving are not just random.
Accepting that I might be successful is proving quite a task.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #36
  • Jul 31, 2013 12:51pm Jul 31, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting pemully
tried to customize T.E and I lost all my previous data as stupid oanda allows only 30 days history. k.
hi pemully,

I never used trade explorer so what I suggest might be wrong.
but because of your post I looked up other OANDA Live Trade explorers and they seem to go way back.

e.g. http://www.forexfactory.com/bgin2end#18


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot from 2013-07-31 14:48:13.png Size: 47 KB


maybe it is some other causes: if so you might want to delete the post in the Oanda thread to avoid that other people get the wrong impression.

Cheers

Ati
Money is important, Love is essential.
  • #37
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:13pm Jul 31, 2013 1:13pm
its true. check geominks journal.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #38
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:54pm Jul 31, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting pemully
its true. check geominks journal.
Yeah turns out its fxtrade on oanda. I use oanda mt4 acc with no issues.
  • #39
  • Aug 1, 2013 6:28am Aug 1, 2013 6:28am
Quoting TradingDrunk
{quote} Yeah turns out its fxtrade on oanda. I use oanda mt4 acc with no issues.
tanks TradingDrunk. So that's why some work and some not.
Money is important, Love is essential.
  • #40
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:43am Aug 7, 2013 9:43am
I'm getting hammered mercilessly down about 11%. Time to reduce position size to 1% while I lick my wounds.
I have started a new experiment with a second system and if it works I'll be in heaven.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
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