Plain Journal

Starting today I will make a trading journal using The Freebie System started by Dredding82. Since I still have problem to determine trend bias using multi timeframe, I will use Paulus approach to make it as mechanical as possible.

The original rules can be read from the thread, I will use this.

Entry Rules:
1. 123 formation
2. Fail/break on pivot (I use Camarilla Pivot)
3. Heiken Ashi color match with entry direction
4. The signal bar must be the first HA color change, closed on the right side of the pivot, max 7pip from pivot

Stop Loss: 3-4pips below/above previous swing considering the spread
Target: will be on the next pivot lines. Minimal Risk:Reward 1:1 and maximal 1:3
Risk: 2% of my account
Pairs: AU, EU, GU, UJ, will try to add some pairs ie EA & EJ if I can manage all of them at once
Timeframe: M5
Trading Time: Tokyo open-London close

Indicators:
1. OHLC bar
2. camarilla pivot
3. 3 level semafor
additional indicators: market line, candle clock, fifo alert to analyze the performance regarding HTF

To be analyzed from the journal result:
- is it better to wait for the big 3 from semafor to confirm direction?
- is it better to trade on London session only?
- is it better to follow H1 HA direction?

Currently taking long on UJ. Tokyo session. Semafor big 3 already appeared at the bottom. Price retest daily pivot. RR > 1:1. Not align with H1 HA which is red.

Update: SL, just like the earlier EJ. It is the problem when we are exposed to a currency. When the currency moves unexpectedly we could lose on more than a pair.

Currently taking short on GU. Tokyo session. Semafor big 3 already appear, price creating flow reject daily pivot. RR 1:3. Not align with H1 HA.
Update: SL. Big 3 moved to the higher bar.

Another long, this time on EJ. Tokyo session. Break daily pivot then retest. First HA green closed as bear bar. Direction align with HA H1 and semafor big 3. The issue is when the first green HA bar closed, there was a semafor dot above the signal bar. Should it consider as invalid signal?

Update: SL in 10 minutes!!! Pic before and after attached.

Tokyo session. Another entry: short on EU. Not align with HA H1. PA reject pivot and price already forming LH.

Update: SL hard times on Tokyo session today. Thinking about 2 days ago when Tokyo session gave 10% return from 4 trades with 2% risk for each trade.

Hmmm... yesterday was a tough day to trade using this approach. Today in Tokyo session I got SL from all my 4 trades.

I have some thought inside my head:
- I believe it is so true as Dredding82 said that we just can't trade without using trend, perhaps from higher timeframe.
- I suspect the volatility of the market as the cause. With that I think about using damiani volatmeter to avoid me from taking position on the very very very flat day. (Update: will try to use ATR comparison to identify market volatility, as introduced on Invictus thread. )
- I have a doubt about trading on Tokyo session. While people said to trade on London session, but lately the Tokyo session also has a good move.
- Perhaps the edge with price breakout a pivot then retest pivot is better than a rejection then waiting for confirmation edge.
- The signal bar, perhaps it should closed with bull/bear condition according to the direction of the trade.

Well too early to change anything. Will carry on with the original rules for a while.

London session, taking short on UJ. All trades from Tokyo session closed with SL. But the day is not over yet, actually the UK session is still early....
Update: TP hit.

GU, long position on London session, 15 minutes to New York open. Risky? Perhaps. Sometimes we got a reversal of direction when a market open. I rate this entry as a risky one.
Reason:

1. Close to market opening
2. The H1 HA showing downtrend.
3. This is a buying position to daily pivot line, while people look for buy above daily pivot and vice versa.
4. There are 2 high impact news after New York open.
5. ATR red telling us market getting quite at the moment
6. I have a HL but no HH yet.

Let's see...
Update: SL hit. But the main problem is I set the SL wrong!!! It should be below the prev swing low, somehow I set it above. If I set the SL right, then this entry would hit TP with 4% return.

US session. Long on UJ.
Cons:

1. not align with H1 HA
2. 15 minutes to US high impact news
3. ATR is low

Oh you might wonder when I saw those cons before taking position, why I still open the position. The reason is I want to collect more data about this methodology. As Paulus said on the thread, we should take every signal consistently so we have a confidence in the system.
Update: TP hit. Powered by US news?

This is EJ position form lastnite New York session. Hit SL.

EU, last position on New York session. Hit TP with 2% return.

So yesterday (July 25th), this is the result.

Tokyo session: UJ -2%, GU -2%, EJ -2%, EU -2%, total -8%
London session: UJ +2%, GU -2% (with perfect SL set would be +4%), total 6%
New York session: UJ +2%, EJ -2%, EU 2%, total 2%

By the end of the day I only got 0%. Hmmm look at that -8% on Tokyo session!!! Should I go strict to the original rule to trade only on London session? Without that Tokyo session I could get 8% yesterday. But for now I will still trade Tokyo session so I can collect more complete data. Later after having enough data then I will try to make a conclusion. Another reason: I am awake since Tokyo session, if it is tradeable (profitable) why shouldn't I trade on that session?

Tokyo session. EJ short. I missed this entry due busy modifying an indicator. Should be a profit one with 2% return. Look at the fibo with marking for SL, entry point and target 1x.

Tokyo session. UJ short.
Update: this is really ridiculous. Price twice hanging around my TP, it's just a matter of spread that keep the position open till now. Look at the chart around 2x line.
Update: TP, return 4%. Fiuhhh finally, after allday babysitting this position.

What a really really quite day today... EU still 20pips range... GU with 33pips range. London opened nearly an hour ago. I know today there is no high impact news listed on FF calendar. But.... come on! My pairs trapped somewhere in the middle of pivot lines, no edge to be expected soon.

London session. Long AU.
Update: SL.
Still babysitting the UJ from Tokyo session. Just 5minipips (plus spread) to the TP but price decided to move back. Well, committed to the rule I didn't close the position but waiting for it to either hit TP or SL. Arrrgggghhhhh what a slow day!

Look at what happened on EJ. I didn't take any of this signal. I missed the first one. The second and the third couldn't be taken since I still have UJ open from Tokyo session. I commit that I will not let myself too expose to a currency based on yesterday's experience. So I will only pick the first available signal between UJ and EJ.

Forget to upload this entry. Short AU on London session. Waiting for another retracement on another side of pivot line after SL earlier with opposite position.
Update: It needs a whole day for this edge to get TP hit with 6% return.

So this is yesterday (26.07.2013) result.

Tokyo session: UJ +4%, total 4% (if you want to count that EJ setup I missed it would add 2%)
London session: AU -2% + 6% total 4%
New York session: No signal

By the end of the day I got 8% return. Fiuh.... finally after a slow day, that's quite a "waiting for".

Notes: If you notice I have put some indicators below the chart. Well, I need it to take a note for later analysis whether any of the indicators work well to filter my entries. But for now I still stick to the rule, taking every setup I could find on the chart. Also I have changed the semafor indi. I use the default setting both for 3 level and 4 level. I don't think it matter so much about the difference of the period used, since they are used only to assist me finding the flow of the price with HH/HL or LH/LL approach. For a bonus, I like the "sun" displayed on my chart, feels like I'm looking at a garden I know that I can change the symbol as well if I want to keep using the 3 level indi. But hey, you can pick any as your favor!

Wrap up for the week.

22.07.2013 12 entries, return 2%
23.07.2013 13 entries, return 6%
24.07.2013 10 entries, return -10%
25.07.2013 9 entries, return -10%
26.07.2013 3 entries, return 8%

This week return 2%. Will not say it's a good one. But any positive figure is actually a good one, right?