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The similarity system

  • #4,741
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:46am Jul 26, 2013 7:46am
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} How's it working out for you?
Hey MM!

This week has been one hell of an experiment, I can tell you. There is promise in some of this stuff.... it's putting in a methodology that works for my style that is where the effort is.

Having said that.. I have a rudimentary "method" for predicting Daily Direction (macro). But I have no way to reconcile this high level info with smaller tf to trade it (micro). And the sample size is too small yet to see if this is viable long term.

However, the demo account was sitting at $6000 up from $4800 as at the beginning of the day... all trades from some Similarity Principle technique. This is what is encouraging me to plough on.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,742
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:48am Jul 26, 2013 7:48am
someone said please share your secret with us: the next moment, the same person is crucifying you! That is the reason I won't allow anyone without a sound mind to post on my thread again! Forex-trading is not for the weak.
  • #4,743
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:50am Jul 26, 2013 7:50am
Quoting Eurusdd
someone said please share your secret with us: the next moment, the same person is crucifying you! That is the reason I won't allow anyone without a sound mind to post on my thread again! Forex-trading is not for the weak.



To lighten the mood here is a headline
Attached Image
  • #4,744
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:51am Jul 26, 2013 7:51am
Quoting shiva
{quote} To lighten the mood here is a headline {image}
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,745
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:01am Jul 26, 2013 8:01am
My experience is clear: 5 years of testing, experimenting and live-trading. I am busy with other things but 5 years is enough time to know a lot about this market! I give math lectures around the world too and I know that it is always good to allow people to understand a concept first before they apply it. You cannot just start applying a difficult concept without a deep understanding of what it says. You cannot be a pro within a week!

I don't have a problem with anyone who says the principle is not working for him/her. However, it is wrong to put a gun to my head and say - "give us the real-deal or else...". I am also not concerned if you decide to ignore the principle. You are just a bad/weak student or unable to digest complicated ideas.

Those I chose as buddies are - from my perspective - capable of understanding deep issues or stable!
  • #4,746
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:02am Jul 26, 2013 8:02am
Quoting shiva
Aha thanks MM, it can pinpoint the indicator? Or will it tell me its MT4 is the culprit? This I already know
Easier still is just go the MT4 directory and check the logs folder. Just delete the file and check again when a new one is created before it gets too large.
  • #4,747
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:07am Jul 26, 2013 8:07am
Quoting EaglePip
{quote} Easier still is just go the MT4 directory and check the logs folder. They are text files which list the indicators creating the log.
Yes, but he says the file size is too big to open in a text editor.

Shiva, try this: shut down MT4, delete log file for today, restart MT4, wait a few ticks, shut down again. This way the log file should be around 20-30 megs tops (been there seen that ) and you can open that.
Even if you fall on your face, you're still moving forward.
  • #4,748
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:10am Jul 26, 2013 8:10am
Quoting Eurusdd
My experience is clear: 5 years of testing, experimenting and live-trading. I am busy with other things but 5 years is enough time to know a lot about this market! I give math lectures around the world too and I know that it is always good to allow people to understand a concept first before they apply it. You cannot just start applying a difficult concept without a deep understanding of what it says. You cannot be a pro within a week! I don't have a problem with anyone who says the principle is not working for him/her. However, it is wrong to put...
Hi Eurusdd,

Some of us hear what you're saying loud and clear. And if you think some of us are worthy of deeper thought/ideas - we're very thankful. This thread has been quite rewarding in terms of ideas and perspectives. Any dissenting thought can be simply put to "it's not for me".

I hope we can draw a line in the sand so we can move on and develop what we have.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,749
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:27am Jul 26, 2013 8:27am
Thanks Eaglepip and Ralome, strangely the indicator has stopped doing this, it probably knows its being hunted and is biding its time
  • #4,750
  • Edited 1:00pm Jul 26, 2013 8:30am | Edited 1:00pm
Hey guys.

Well I have 10+ vouches so hopefully I'm ok but if there's any doubt here's a picture of me on holiday last year on Saturn. I was attending the intergalactic Mercedes owners club convention in that pic, i go every year, its such a groove. This clearly illustrates I have the grey matter to cope with these concepts!

Attached Image


Daz
Keep smiling
  • #4,751
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:31am Jul 26, 2013 8:31am
Quoting Misterdaz
Hey guys. Well I have 10+ vouches so hopefully I'm ok but if there's any doubt here's a picture of me on holiday last year on Saturn. This clearly illustrates I have the grey matter to cope with these concepts! {image} Daz
Hmmm a swollen head!
  • #4,752
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:37am Jul 26, 2013 8:37am
Quoting shiva
{quote} Hmmm a swollen head!
Man, I have a hell of time trying to buy a hat!
Keep smiling
  • #4,753
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:38am Jul 26, 2013 8:38am
Quoting Misterdaz
Hey guys. Well I have 10+ vouches so hopefully I'm ok but if there's any doubt here's a picture of me on holiday last year on Saturn. This clearly illustrates I have the grey matter to cope with these concepts! {image} Daz
my is bigger than yours.
  • #4,754
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:42am Jul 26, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} my is bigger than yours.
Story of my life
Keep smiling
  • #4,755
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:44am Jul 26, 2013 8:44am
Quoting Misterdaz
{quote} Story of my life
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,756
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:13pm Jul 26, 2013 1:13pm
Ok....here is more ramblings from the class idiot. Please understand I'm not trying to teach you guys anything here but as I try to explain the stuff in my head I am helping myself rationalize things. Its an effective way to learn but "noisy" so sorry people

I think the current ZZ rules are sound. I will just use ZZT for easy reference. I think when most people see a ZZT the initial bias is to sell. I think this bias needs to be rethought. When I see a ZZT now, my bias is instead to buy.

Yes, buy. Since we can observe price goes to ZZT then ZZB and T and B and T and B......I evaluate every ZZT I see. We are bothering with repainting finding ways to see how strong the signal is because we know that value is not absolute and can hurt our shorts. It is for this reason I am long bias. I have flipped over the perspective of the the stuff we done around so instead of thinking how to spot a valid ZZT it become how to spot an invalid ZZT. No change in rules just definition and perspective.

We know what happens to ZZ that paint in BB. Chaos and DS,extra swing blah blah but price has to return to make a correct swing so to speak. Ema at BB and painted but stoch not at BB and what to expect. The established rules so to speak. Therefore price is usually inclined to validate a ZZ first before it has to turn. Would not make sense to want to follow in the validation direction first before I bother with the turn? Up till the time when the validation become strong then do i consider the reversal. Will this not make for more effective trading?? Kinda like killing two birds with one stone?

See,if I work from the bottom up say 15M till validation at that TF, I move 1TF up..if that ZZT at the 15M is true I would see the same thing on the 30M then I just simply return to the 15 for my short run. How am I sure its time for the turn?? Because ZZ tells me only one thing..a variable X and if X is indeed a top, that value will appear marked on all TFs no? If X is not a top it will not be marked on the higher TF 30M in this case since it requires that value to be X + Y instead. Assumption is on 15M say X is maybe 1.3000 and it brings the EMA out of the BB, on the 30M 1.3000 is still inside the BB so I'm biased long till such time I get a value that paints a proper ZZ on 30M and repeat the process not bothering with shorts till such time the a get a TF concurrence. There is therefore be no need for me to watch multiple TFs as I only progress when required.

This reasoning is assuming price moved steadily. It may fail if for example we have a spike up to say 1.3500 immediately putting the EMA out of the BB for both 15M and 30M but still within the BB on the 1H. Using my approach will not detect this and likely result in an early short. Therefore to counter, we take another step checking up another TF and if the top is false then we start the process again at that TF instead. This being so, there will still be no requirement to actively monitor multiple TFs since you need to make a reference or use when actively required.

You keep can going up in TFs but till what end?

There! Either I realized something new or that what everyone else is already doing or I'm completely wrong!!!
I want more brain power!
  • #4,757
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:23pm Jul 26, 2013 1:23pm
I had a question in a PM that I'll answer here because close to the same thing was asked here as well.

Eurusdd, if you read this and find it to be blatantly incorrect or too revealing, please delete it. I will not be offended.

Quote:"...It seems in fact we are trading a pivot point (a swing) at higher time frame and building position away from it at a lower timerframe : when we have a dissimilarity this is because we are making a little higher high of a higher timeframe swing."

This is a good question but you must first, understand that my answer is based on what I interpret DS zones to be. Perhaps not what Eurusdd intends...

Also, before I answer this I'm going to share some additional information:

Now that the general riffraff has been effectively banned from asking irrelevant questions I'm going to tell you some things you haven't though of that I hope will put the thread back on track. I can do so because there won't be any stupid questions as a result...I hope.

1. This method isn't about trying traditional tactics and indicators with the information presented...not exactly.


2. This is a shift in thinking that requires one to stop thinking about indicators as a signal. Instead think of what the represent...what data makes them behave in the fashion the behave.

3. There are other tools available that require additional training or effort to learn how to use that compliment what's going on here.

Ok, to answer the question asked above:

Dis-similarities as described by the indicator by themselves are nothing more than a visual representation of a range change. A range change means that an area of SR was taken out.

Yes, it does apply to multiple time frames but I'm still working that part out...however, again, for right now this isn't as important.

Back to statistics (and quants). Math is magical. It can tell you things you never dreamed of. There are tools out there that even a person that doesn't like math can use.

Rapidminer, Matlab and R are all software that can do much data crunching in a short period of time. You just have to know how to use them and how to tell it to look at the data you give it.

That said, you could probably come up with some of the indicator combinations that provide a high degree of accuracy for any given trading method. Great. Fine.

What's unique about what Eurusdd has presented here is the particular mix of indicators and settings that yield these results. You may not realize it but it literally takes hundreds of hours of CPU time to crunch all possible settings of just 2 indicators in relation to each other to find the best ones possible...AND THIS IS JUST FOR A SINGLE TRADING METHOD.

1. I can't imagine how many hours were necessary to crunch data to get these settings.

2. Coming up with the idea to incorporate fractal dimensional analysis, time delay and probability of price level effectiveness is not a concept the typical FF reader or new trader is 'just going to come up with' and say "Hey, I think I'll dedicate the next X thousand dollars to equipment and the next X thousand hours of my time to and see if it works.

3. Finding a set of indicators to represent even a proximally close estimate of the actual results without giving away the whole thing is a task all by itself.

The mechanics behind what this thread is about:

You can take data exported from MT4, shove it into one of the programs I mentioned and guess what comes out:

Quoting Eurusdd
...Then you need to make sure your 1min and 5min charts look VERY SIMILAR like the one below. {image} Do you see the cycle indicators on the 1min and 5min charts agreed? Since the indicators are set in such a way that they should agree >90% of the time, as soon as you spot a difference, like the case below, you are in for a high-probability trade!
and

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 14 KB


and

Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} The stochastic setup is very good.....This is what will happen. On rare occasions, there will be different readings, then after a while the two readings will be equal again! MARK THAT PRICE and get ready for a good trade! The more price continues away from that price, the faster it will return there..... Since they must AGREE more than 98% of the time, different readings at any given time means one stoch will have to catch up with the other.
and a whole bunch of others.

THAT is why I pay attention to what's on this thread.

What's important to those that don't have access to these tools or the resources to run them is the fact that the information presented here, while obfuscated for obvious reasons, is sufficient to discover at least a part of these statistical findings along with how they can be profited from.

I don't post very often and will continue to watch rather than post until I see something else that adds to the puzzle.

Don't bother trying to apply the same old tired methods to the information presented here...while they will probably work, that isn't what this information is for. Instead, try to figure out what the data is really saying about the relationship between price movements in the past and on different time frames to the indicators being used. This is the premise behind all of my posts.

YOU MUST LOOK AT THE DATA AND UNDERSTAND WHAT IT'S TELLING YOU ABOUT PRICE.

Statistical probabilities are why las vegas is one of the wealthiest locations on the globe. Find odds that are in your favor, have the internal fortitude to stick to a plan and you will make money.

All of the information isn't here yet.
  • #4,758
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:31pm Jul 26, 2013 1:31pm
Objective posts, contributions are so good. FxWrangler is a good example that there are still serious people around. ^^^^ I will take criticisms from him because he will be fair. Thank you!
  • #4,759
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:06pm Jul 26, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting vlady1974
Forecast for Fri 25th July DOWN DAY Open 1.32766 I believe that price will test a minimum of 1.3309, owing to a DS Zone started at 22:00GMT or basically start of new day Europe.... this makes it difficult to project. It implies strongly that ZZTOP on the 1H for the 24th July is unresolved. If during the Asian session and this early hours of the DS Zone, we post a swing high then we will have a down day. I will do 2 things: I will open a SHORT trade for the Daily Forecast even though the price will go higher. I will open a LONG TRADE with...
Forecast for Fri 25th July DOWN DAY Open 1.32766 CLOSE 1.32770 DIFF +0.00004 !
Outcome: Fail. The day was a "unchanged"

After 3 days: 2 correct 1 wrong

The Daily Forecast Short is still open and is in the money.
Other trades using 5M and 15M scalps = 681 or 68.1 pips
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,760
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:35pm Jul 26, 2013 7:35pm
Quoting FXWrangler
I had a question in a PM that I'll answer here because close to the same thing was asked here as well. Eurusdd, if you read this and find it to be blatantly incorrect or too revealing, please delete it. I will not be offended. Quote:"...It seems in fact we are trading a pivot point (a swing) at higher time frame and building position away from it at a lower timerframe : when we have a dissimilarity this is because we are making a little higher high of a higher timeframe swing." This is a good question but you must first, understand that my answer...
Let's get things moving!
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