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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #2,501
  • Jul 26, 2013 11:45am Jul 26, 2013 11:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Most of us were not convinced of any upside when the Euro was at 1.2810, and look what happened.

Yes, that was a complete mess. I was lucky, because I covered my shorts around 283 or so, when I remember correctly. I waited then for a wave 4, or a further wave 2, but was absolutely stunned, when we popped 450 pips in a single day.

In the aftermath situation was clear: when we reached the bottom, big bullish divergences in play, the Comm speculators suddenly net long, and most important, sentiment data only showing 3% EUR bulls left - there was only one way: up
  • #2,502
  • Jul 26, 2013 11:57am Jul 26, 2013 11:57am
Quoting MeInGraySuit
{quote} I don't know who in the US that they survey to get those numbers, but whoever they are don't look at the whole debt that the US is in!!

As an American, I can confidently say never underestimate the stupidity of the American consumer.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,503
  • Jul 26, 2013 11:58am Jul 26, 2013 11:58am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yes, that was a complete mess. I was lucky, because I covered my shorts around 283 or so, when I remember correctly. I waited then for a wave 4, or a further wave 2, but was absolutely stunned, when we popped 450 pips in a single day. In the aftermath situation was clear: when we reached the bottom, big bullish divergences in play, the Comm speculators suddenly net long, and most important, sentiment data only showing 3% EUR bulls left - there was only one way: up



this was the real truth ...
  • #2,504
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:19pm Jul 26, 2013 12:19pm
in case you missed it:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6849600
  • #2,505
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:32pm Jul 26, 2013 12:32pm
HDA is talking about the 3080 level

Do you remember that area? It is the POC area of weekly and monthly (32 periods), namely 3088 and 3096


Hi chance, that those levels get tested again. And for sure, those levels need volume to be taken out


Quoting infinitus
in case you missed it: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6849600
  • #2,506
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:35pm Jul 26, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting infinitus
HDA is talking about the 3080 level Do you remember that area? It is the POC area of weekly and monthly (32 periods), namely 3088 and 3096 Hi chance, that those levels get tested again. And for sure, those levels need volume to be taken out {quote}

Makes sense to me, pound same.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,507
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:44pm Jul 26, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting infinitus
in case you missed it: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6849600
Good one.

That number says something. It's in your POC tables. It's in my major pivot list. It's burned into HDA's brain. t's a magic number.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,508
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:45pm Jul 26, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Good one. That number says something. It's in your POC tables. It's in my major pivot list. It's burned into HDA's brain. t's a magic number.

I have more:


serious EMA support is crossing there:
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  • #2,509
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:46pm Jul 26, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yes, that was a complete mess. I was lucky, because I covered my shorts around 283 or so, when I remember correctly. I waited then for a wave 4, or a further wave 2, but was absolutely stunned, when we popped 450 pips in a single day. In the aftermath situation was clear: when we reached the bottom, big bullish divergences in play, the Comm speculators suddenly net long, and most important, sentiment data only showing 3% EUR bulls left - there was only one way: up
Very true.
Amazing that when we are biased in a certain direction, our brain filters out important clues about how wrong we can be.
In fact the first thing I noticed "after" (not before) the pop was the bullish divergence. LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,510
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:48pm Jul 26, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I have more: serious EMA support is crossing there: {image}

look at monthly chart


the 3080 area is one of the biggest congestion areas ever
Attached Image
  • #2,511
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:49pm Jul 26, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I have more: serious EMA support is crossing there: {image}
Yep and it is also a level that Draghi is comfortable with.
In the last 6 ECB press conferences, he has tended to be dovish when price is above 1.30/1.32, hawkish when below and neutral when in the zone.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,512
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:50pm Jul 26, 2013 12:50pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} look at monthly chart the 3080 area is one of the biggest congestion areas ever {image}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,513
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:51pm Jul 26, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting morob
{quote} When above 1.325 intraday bias remains bullish
I see not to much change since morning...

:nerd:
  • #2,514
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:51pm Jul 26, 2013 12:51pm
From 11th July

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} 1.3070 (actually 1.3072) has been a key pivot for a very long time. Every time price has come to this area, it has hung around for a while. If it gets hung here again, I see sideways action until next week.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,515
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:53pm Jul 26, 2013 12:53pm
Same day from you

Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi guys, nice discussion you have going on here :-) Regarding the importance of 3070: on my MMSMP's I have the following POC's: Monthly (data of the last 32 months) 3096 weekly (last 32 weeks) 3088 daily (last 32 days) 3077 well, that is important enough, at least for me :-) above bullish, below bearish
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,516
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:53pm Jul 26, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Very true. Amazing that when we are biased in a certain direction, our brain filters out important clues about how wrong we can be. In fact the first thing I noticed "after" (not before) the pop was the bullish divergence. LOL

I noticed the divergence, but how many times have we seen, that a divergence lasted seemingly forever? So I still thought: one more pop to the downside


I think, when I have had a good entry in the 34x region, I I had all the shorts still in the 275 area, I would have had no SL at those positions.

The 450 pip move came completely unforeseen. OK, 100 or 200 pip in one day, but 450?
  • #2,517
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:57pm Jul 26, 2013 12:57pm
E/U

1H TF
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  • #2,518
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:58pm Jul 26, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting morob
{quote} I see not to much change since morning... :nerd:
No change at all.

Only a repeat of yesterday in SPX500 except that it went a little lower this time.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,519
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:59pm Jul 26, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Same day from you {quote}

Nice find :-)


I can remember me, trying short scalps and swings in that area at that day, but the zone was simply overrun, but price consolidated in that area over the next days
  • #2,520
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:04pm Jul 26, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I noticed the divergence, but how many times have we seen, that a divergence lasted seemingly forever? So I still thought: one more pop to the downside I think, when I have had a good entry in the 34x region, I I had all the shorts still in the 275 area, I would have had no SL at those positions. The 450 pip move came completely unforeseen. OK, 100 or 200 pip in one day, but 450?
True. It was major. But in all fairness, knowing that Benny was speaking after hours in low volume conditions should have been a huge caution sign. It's not the first time the Euro made very wild moves during low volume

Like every time there is a US holiday during the week, some idiot from Brussels or Frankfurt comes out and make ridiculous claims about how the Euro is saved.

The only difference this time is that it was Benny claiming how awful the US unemployment situation is.

So the US is doing well and Benny is saying it's in the dumps
and
The EZ is in an awful state and Draghi is saying all is well and it is pointless to be short the Euro.

and the above events always happen during low volume times.

It's almost enough to wake the dead conspiracy theorists from their graves.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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