Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 34 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #661
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:48am Jul 26, 2013 7:48am
Hi,
in attached file eur jpy (H4). I think that it will be great place to take short positions (arrow). We have fresh supply weekly level, 2 demand levels that were broken (chaniging the 4H trend). What do you think ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyh4.png Size: 43 KB
  • #662
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:02am Jul 26, 2013 8:02am
Quoting panoramia
The only problem with correlated pairs is that if you go long in one and short on the other one, I'd be risking 2%. I try to choose the one that has the better look, but sometimes I am on both. That's the only problem I see. If risking 3% then the problem is bigger, because if the correlation fails, then both will be losers. One more reason for me to keep a low profile risk! Alfonso {quote}

Just wanted to drop in and say that I greatly enjoyed the webinar and I will try to modify my charts to Alfonso´s TPL before posting.

A big thank you to Alfonso and to all other serious particpators.

The reason why I subscribed to THIS thread is the fact that Alfonso is mainly focused on 4H charts when applying the S/D teachings, I tried some lower TF´s but I can`t do them. So for me it is a great gift to see what Alfonso and the others are pointing out here.

Good trading to all.

Mike ( + better half )
Be like water.
  • #663
  • Edited 9:01am Jul 26, 2013 8:44am | Edited 9:01am
Hi Mike!

Thanks for popping in, you are most welcome! Hope we can create a nice group of swing traders helping each other. 10 or more eyes can seen more than 2. This is just the beginning, I have quite a few ideas more but need that we all contribute, we'll all profit from others.

Hope to see you around in the thread Mike!
Alfonso

Quoting msmarple
{quote} Just wanted to drop in and say that I greatly enjoyed the webinar and I will try to modify my charts to Alfonso´s TPL before posting. A big thank you to Alfonso and to all other serious particpators. The reason why I subscribed to THIS thread is the fact that Alfonso is mainly focused on 4H charts when applying the S/D teachings, I tried some lower TF´s but I can`t do them. So for me it is a great gift to see what Alfonso and the others are pointing out here. Good trading to all. Mike ( + better half )
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #664
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:28am Jul 26, 2013 9:28am
The AUDJPY short trade reached its target. It looks like it can drop further, but I am not greedy, it's Friday and I don't want to keep it during the weekend, so I am out at the target! Hope you also got part of it, it's been posted over here.

As I explained over here in a couple of posts, I am trading a couple of accounts, on one my emotions play with me and I tend to affect the results of my trades, on another one I just want to respect the TPs when I feel very safe.

I've attached a screenshot of a live account I am trading for a close friend on my VPS on a 1% risk, I wish it was mine because my live account (the master) is pretty small I am not boasting with this message. I just wanted to show you that I am trading live accounts, not demo accounts, and some of the trades use a decent amount of lots. It's just possible. I am on my way, little by little, but still not there, lot of things to solve inside my head! I need to go to Houston and have a nice brain surgeon

I trade live accounts, not demo accounts, demo only for metals and commodities. Supply and demand just works, we just need to stay focused and follow a very strict trading plan!

My best wishes for you all!
Alfonso

Quoting panoramia
The AUDJPY H1 short we planned 1 day ago is working fine. Already at BE now. Look at all the circles on H1, compressed demand all the way up, no fresh levels and price is bouncing from the D1 supply area. Since all levels are used-up, price has higher probabilities of going through them easily. There is room for a non-greedy target at previous H1/H4 demand area {image} Look at the H4 chart. There is a potential H4 speedbump supply that could be validated if price keeps on dropping, it's in purple because it's not yet valid {image} {quote}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 243 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #665
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:36am Jul 26, 2013 9:36am
Hi Alfonso,

I see you like to see if we are awake. Posted AUDJPY trade stats with GBPJPY chart....LOL
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #666
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:44am Jul 26, 2013 9:44am
Yes, but it's ok. On the MT's VPS I only show the GBPJPY because it's the most volatile pair of all, the one recommended for the copier I use. I just pasted the screenshot to show the terminal window with the trade, so that anybody can see that I trade live, well you can see on all my charts that I trade live except metals and commodities.

But I didn't realize that others might think it was not the right chart, the trade's was posted a couple of times in some posts, that's why I didn't post it again

Alfonso

Quoting Shabs19
Hi Alfonso, I see you like to see if we are awake. Posted AUDJPY trade stats with GBPJPY chart....LOL
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #667
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:52am Jul 26, 2013 9:52am
Hi,

I see in the WK USD Index, price touch fresh and original Demand. Is there any possibility of the dollar will rally?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdindexweekly.png Size: 43 KB


thanks.
rio

Quoting panoramia
Have you been wondering why the majors (eurusd, gbpusd, etc) have been rallying for the last days? Jasmine (larra) mentioned it a couple of posts back as well... Take a look at the Dollar Index chart on the D1 timeframe and you will see what I mean... If the $ index is bouncing from higher timeframe supply areas, the majors will be rallying If the $ index is violating D1 demand areas, the majors will be rallying and absorbing supply areasThat's why watching the dollar index is key to trading forex. $ index correlation with Forex is very imporant,...
from loser to be hero
  • #668
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:57am Jul 26, 2013 9:57am
Yes, it's a Weekly demand area, I have it on my charts as well. Euro and Gbp are approaching some supplies, so we could possibly have some shorts on the pound and euro, as well as other majors!

Alfonso

Quoting rio cyrano
Hi, I see in the WK USD Index, price touch fresh and original Demand. Is there any possibility of the dollar will rally? {image} thanks. rio {quote}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #669
  • Jul 26, 2013 10:11am Jul 26, 2013 10:11am
Hi Sekbor,

I do have a short trade planned on that H4 supply area you mentioned, it looks like a nice spot to trade on H4, a big imbalance and R/R. I like the area a lot! You have a trade there? It's right at the D1 ascending trendline now.

Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
Hi, in attached file eur jpy (H4). I think that it will be great place to take short positions (arrow). We have fresh supply weekly level, 2 demand levels that were broken (chaniging the 4H trend). What do you think ? {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 143 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #670
  • Jul 26, 2013 10:46am Jul 26, 2013 10:46am
Hi Alfonso,

i have question, how we know when right time to out from transaction to take profit?
example, if we open transaction in H1 AUDUSD. they have 2 demand area (speedbump) in H1, and in H4 just 1 demand area. where i must place my TP?

H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.png Size: 58 KB

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh4.png Size: 65 KB


thank you.

Rio
from loser to be hero
  • #671
  • Jul 26, 2013 11:03am Jul 26, 2013 11:03am
Quoting panoramia
Yes, I agree with you Jasmine! $index was bearish, so the majors were rallying... The problem is that we'll always find a reason not to trade, that's why a solid set of rules will help us achieve our goals! That NZDUSD short didn't work, but others will work. The good thing is that we only need a 40% success ratio or less to be profitable if we close the trades at a minimum 3:1 risk/reward! Next one! Alfonso {quote}
Hi Alfonso
Thanks for the help on that chart. I had a few questions Alfonso?
1. I am looking at your D1 supply level for AUD/JPY and mine is a little different. could you please show me a snapshot where you painted your daily supply level for the AUD/JPY

2) The chart # 1 below is the AUD/USD and i have a speedbump supply level on the 1H chart. The trend was down and and the 1H trend is UP. When looking at the 1H chart and the trend is reversing: making higher highs and lower lows, can i rely on that 1H speedbump supply that i have painted? by the way that trade did not work as you can see on chart # 2? Why do you think this happened and was not a good LEVEL?

3) could you please take the latest snapshot of your D1 and Wk supply and demand spreedsheet and post it. I like you use it to see if my levels are the same as yours.

Really appreciate the help, Thankyou
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 31.png Size: 98 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd32.png Size: 98 KB
  • #672
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:36pm Jul 26, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting panoramia
Hi Sekbor, I do have a short trade planned on that H4 supply area you mentioned, it looks like a nice spot to trade on H4, a big imbalance and R/R. I like the area a lot! You have a trade there? It's right at the D1 ascending trendline now. Alfonso {quote} {image}
Hi Alfonso! I see your short on h4 speed bump. If price touch daily demand and come back after to your order your order will be valid?(in this case daily demand will be in control). (EURJPY h4) Thanks!
  • #673
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:57pm Jul 26, 2013 12:57pm
Yes Boby, if D1 demand is touched and price is coming from it, the speedbumps are not high probability and then I will cancel the trade. I will look for shorts at the extremes, original levels. That's the way I normally do!

Alfonso

Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Hi Alfonso! I see your short on h4 speed bump. If price touch daily demand and come back after to your order your order will be valid?(in this case daily demand will be in control). (EURJPY h4) Thanks!
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #674
  • Edited 2:14pm Jul 26, 2013 1:59pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting rio cyrano
Hi Alfonso, i have question, how we know when right time to out from transaction to take profit? example, if we open transaction in H1 AUDUSD. they have 2 demand area (speedbump) in H1, and in H4 just 1 demand area. where i must place my TP? H1 {image} H4 {image} thank you. Rio
Hello!

If you entered the correct level (supply/demand zone),you should look at the beginning (formation of that level) of that level (zone) and concentrate on:

-how far the price dropped from that level (before going in opposite direction,or startde trading sideways))
-look for the fresh levels nearby on lower/hihger timeframes( lets say you are trading on 1h,so look also on 15 min chart for any fresh levels.The point here is to combine fresh levels on 1h,15min and 30 min).When you see 2 or three factors matching,you have it.It works for me.

You now, it doesnt necessary mean that the price will stop at at the near fresh levels (bellow/above).If you see any fresh level that can be potential profit target,check what is going on on lower/higher timeframes at that level.

Here is the example (this trade i took few hours ago and it reached my TP)

You see that red horizontal line?That was my target and it was reached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold-h1-trading-point-of-kombiniranje-timeframes-in-risanje-rte.png Size: 59 KB
  • #675
  • Edited 4:28pm Jul 26, 2013 2:13pm | Edited 4:28pm
Next Monday 26th July I will be organizing another webinar on supply and demand.

Those who have not send me a private message with their emails and are interested in joining next webinar, please send me a private message and I will send you link to join it.

Date: 29th July Monday
Time: 2 PM CEST, right at NY Session Open

We'll be covering:
- Live trading analysis
- How to use trendlines to assess trend on your entry timeframe

Those who have already attended one of my webinars must have already received the invitation by email!
Have a great weekend!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #676
  • Edited 3:38pm Jul 26, 2013 3:20pm | Edited 3:38pm
I've created a 30 minutes video that explains in a very clear and straight forward manner how to combine the use of the automatic supply and demand indicator by Insanities Industries, and the rectangle extender indicator I've created.

Both indicators are available to download from the first post of my thread.

I will show you how the rectangle extender indicator will help you on your topdown analysis, you will no longer see the trees but the forest when you are in lower timeframes. At any moment in time you will know how close or far you are from Daily and Weekly supply and demand areas.

Why do we need to know that?
Because if we're too close to higher timeframe's supply in control, we don't want to buy on demand levels. If we are too close to D1 or Weekely demand, we don't want to buy. We can only know that if we know where we are at any moment, the rectangle extender indicator will help you.

It's a great tool that combined with the automatic supply and demand indicator, will help you become a better trader and be aware of where the institutions smart money is lurking to trade the markets.

Enjoy the video! I hope that you like the way this combination can do to improve your trading.

Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #677
  • Jul 26, 2013 4:27pm Jul 26, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting panoramia
Next Monday 26th July I will be organizing another webinar on supply and demand. Those who have not send me a private message with their emails and are interested in joining next webinar, please send me a private message and I will send you link to join it. Date: 26th July Monday Time: 2 PM CEST, right at NY Session Open We'll be covering: - Live trading analysis - How to use trendlines to assess trend on your entry timeframe Those who have already attended one of my webinars must have already received the invitation by email! Have a great weekend!...
The 29th perhaps? Look forward to it, thanks. Big thumbs up for all you efforts.
  • #678
  • Jul 27, 2013 4:40am Jul 27, 2013 4:40am
Hi Alfonso,

I'm really new to your system but I have try your method on MT4. There is one thing I still not clear much is about the Entry point of trade. So I will write what I understand and want you help to confirm is my knowledge is correct. That is can process via these steps:

1. Draw all SR lines of 3 timeframes (Ex: WK, D1, H4)
2. Go to WK to determine the curve High or Low (Ex: High)
3. Go to D1 to see the main trend is Low (or not), if OK then go to step 4
4. After determine the Low trend, go to H4 chart, put the Buy Limit order near the High of lowest H4 Demand Line.

And according to the system, you only open Limit Order, not any Instant or Stop order ?

Thank you for the knowledge and shares.

Looking for your reply.

Regards
No emotion
  • #679
  • Jul 27, 2013 5:16am Jul 27, 2013 5:16am
Quoting Sdprice
{quote} Hi Alfonso Thanks for the help on that chart. I had a few questions Alfonso? 1. I am looking at your D1 supply level for AUD/JPY and mine is a little different. could you please show me a snapshot where you painted your daily supply level for the AUD/JPY 2) The chart # 1 below is the AUD/USD and i have a speedbump supply level on the 1H chart. The trend was down and and the 1H trend is UP. When looking at the 1H chart and the trend is reversing: making higher highs and lower lows, can i rely on that 1H speedbump supply that i have painted?...
Hi,

As I look back at D1 of A/U on that day, I see it is in the UP trend, so when you try to find a short order on that level always risky. That is the reason why that level is easy to break
No emotion
  • #680
  • Jul 27, 2013 7:30am Jul 27, 2013 7:30am
Do you guys think its possible for a counter trend on the USD/CHF?

There is fresh demand on the daily (0.92374) which is just above an original demand area on the weekly (0.91347).

There is also an original and fresh demand area on the daily (which i call OG Fresh) at 0.89706 which is sitting at the bottom of that weekly demand.

The demand on the weekly is being respected, so is it possible it could go long?

NT
Keep your blades sharp!
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