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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #2,401
  • Jul 26, 2013 4:44am Jul 26, 2013 4:44am
Quoting BoringIsGood
Morning, My euro count. Wave 5 has filled 61.8 of wave i & iii (185 pips). I'd need to see an hourly close below wave iii highest close @ 1.3250 before I'd entertain thoughts of this POS finally topping out. 100% wave 5 target @ 1.3350 is at risk until then. {image}

Hi Big,


yep, that is one scenario. But as I described in my prior posting, I would not be surprised to see a downswing stalled at around 3184 with a new HH after that (it would fib-better).


When we look at weekly or monthly, the last downswing from 34x does not look like an impulse. And even on daily, without looking at the squiggles, it looks more like an ABC. If that is an impulse, something does not fit: the wave 4 was not high retracing, nor was it long lasting. Rule of alternation would require a wave 2, which retraced deep and eventually lated somewhat longer. But we do miss such a wave 2
  • #2,402
  • Jul 26, 2013 4:45am Jul 26, 2013 4:45am
Quoting godim
For me it is normal to not "conflict" between the euro and cable. {image} {image}

Very nice
  • #2,403
  • Jul 26, 2013 4:46am Jul 26, 2013 4:46am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi "Wasserspringer", :-) welcome on board. Nice analysis - thank you for sharing
Thanks infinitus or shall I call you Sherlock?

Here is another one. Unfortunately when making a picture via MT4 my chart gets very compressed. With arrows it should be clearer...
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  • #2,404
  • Jul 26, 2013 4:48am Jul 26, 2013 4:48am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Big, yep, that is one scenario. But as I described in my prior posting, I would not be surprised to see a downswing stalled at around 3184 with a new HH after that (it would fib-better). When we look at weekly or monthly, the last downswing from 34x does not look like an impulse. And even on daily, without looking at the squiggles, it looks more like an ABC. If that is an impulse, something does not fit: the wave 4 was not high retracing, nor was it long lasting. Rule of alternation would require a wave 2, which retraced deep and eventually...
Hi Infinitus,

It's not even 5 am and I'm sitting in my office working on my first cup of java. Any chance you have a chart to help me reconcile your scenario?

I am starting to think a move into the mid 1.34's before reversing makes sense because it would inflict maximum pain on traders.
  • #2,405
  • Jul 26, 2013 4:53am Jul 26, 2013 4:53am
Quoting wssrsprngr
{quote} Thanks infinitus or shall I call you Sherlock? Here is another one. Unfortunately when making a picture via MT4 my chart gets very compressed. With arrows it should be clearer... {image}


hahaha, trained at pattern recognition :nerd:
  • #2,406
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:00am Jul 26, 2013 5:00am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Hi Infinitus, It's not even 5 am and I'm sitting in my office working on my first cup of java. Any chance you have a chart to help me reconcile your scenario? I am starting to think a move into the mid 1.34's before reversing makes sense because it would inflict maximum pain on traders.

here we go :-)
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  • #2,407
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:05am Jul 26, 2013 5:05am
Quoting godim
For me it is normal to not "conflict" between the euro and cable. {image} {image}
Speaking of conflict. Few explanations for
Circles of Conflict
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #2,408
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:20am Jul 26, 2013 5:20am
Quoting godim
{quote} Speaking of conflict. Few explanations for Circles of Conflict {image} {image}

Hi Godim,

do you have a lot of experience with the circles of conflict?

In my early days with Murrey Math I read a lot of contrary opinion about them. Do they work for you?
  • #2,409
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:31am Jul 26, 2013 5:31am
Didn't Forexcube yesterday went around 325x both long and short?

His strategy is paying out nicely so far
  • #2,410
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:35am Jul 26, 2013 5:35am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} here we go :-) {image}
I don't like your new count (only because it delays my party), but you're probably bang on with it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,411
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:36am Jul 26, 2013 5:36am
Lately I hate EURUSD - have lost the sync a bit.

Maybe I am too biased at the moment towards a declining EURUSD. This may be due to the fact, that I have fairly big shorts in SP500



Either the top for today is in, or we are in a small wave 4. This wave 4 then may be an ABC-flat, where we are now in impulsiv wave C (down). The new high today in this case was the end of the B-wave up.


3260 to 3245 in this case should offer long opportunity
  • #2,412
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:39am Jul 26, 2013 5:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I don't like your new count (only because it delays my party), but you're probably bang on with it.


This whole sharp move up does not fit into my party, too.

But the positive is:

we get eventually a once in a lifetime shorting opportunity

Last time at around 34x I missed the boat somewhat and spent my time with swimming behind the boat LOL
  • #2,413
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:42am Jul 26, 2013 5:42am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Godim, do you have a lot of experience with the circles of conflict? In my early days with Murrey Math I read a lot of contrary opinion about them. Do they work for you?
I have no experience. For me, this is the third template with quarter square of Gann.
Just put your count inside the square of Gann.
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #2,414
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:46am Jul 26, 2013 5:46am
Quoting godim
{quote} I have no experience. For me, this is the third template with quarter square of Gann. Just put your count inside the square of Gann. {image}

Niiiice :-)

Now I am waiting like a little child for the outcome. Can't wait to see it
  • #2,415
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:52am Jul 26, 2013 5:52am
Few comments about your scenario Infinitus:

1. Whether it occurs because of an extended wave iii (your scenario) or an extended wave v (my possible scenario), a move just above 1.3415 (the 100% fib expansion) is becoming more and more likely.

2. I won't assume the C wave has ended with a move below 1.3250. It will take a move below 1.3165 for me to believe that now.

3. If euro does move above 1.34, I'm afraid it will mess up what I was hoping to be a more clear scenario in cable, unless eur/gbp makes a sharp move above .87.

4. Lots of moving parts, I'll be keeping an open mind.
  • #2,416
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:58am Jul 26, 2013 5:58am
Quoting BoringIsGood
Few comments about your scenario Infinitus: 1. Whether it occurs because of an extended wave iii (your scenario) or an extended wave v (my possible scenario), a move just above 1.3415 (the 100% fib expansion) is becoming more and more likely. 2. I won't assume the C wave has ended with a move below 1.3250. It will take a move below 1.3165 for me to believe that now. 3. If euro does move above 1.34, I'm afraid it will mess up what I was hoping to be a more clear scenario in cable, unless eur/gbp makes a sharp...

ad point 1: completely agree

ad point 2: I think we have to work off a little wave 4 with a wave 5 then ending between 3306 to 3336; after that we can have 3183 - 316x

movement below 3238 will invalidate my scenario, and we likely will go straight away into the 3183-316x region
  • #2,417
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:59am Jul 26, 2013 5:59am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Niiiice :-) Now I am waiting like a little child for the outcome. Can't wait to see it
I now expect support. 3257?
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #2,418
  • Jul 26, 2013 6:00am Jul 26, 2013 6:00am
Maybe we're in the new impulse wave in EU H4 now?
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  • #2,419
  • Jul 26, 2013 6:04am Jul 26, 2013 6:04am
Quoting kaka_ht
Maybe we're in the new impulse wave in EU H4 now? {image} {image}

Hi Kaka,

understand what you mean. I had this count too. The drawback of this count is, that wave 4 and 1 are overlapping, but the wave structure seems to be more impulsive than ending diagonal (ABC) like.

Lara from elliottwaveforex.com has the same count, but right now I do not like it.


But anyway: we know, where for all three counts the limitations are

  • #2,420
  • Jul 26, 2013 6:06am Jul 26, 2013 6:06am
Quoting godim
{quote} I now expect support. 3257? {image} {image}

not bad so far with 3259 :-)
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