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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #421
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:06am Jul 25, 2013 10:06am
Quoting Helius
Simple bread and butter trade. 1st target is already hit. The rest is running for the second target. No risk anymore. Support turns into resistance {image}
Support turning into resistance. One of the first fundamentals you get taught at babypips. After all those years of trying to find a complex method of nailing the holy grail, it comes a full circle back to the hard core basics.

Nice trade Helius

g.
I believe . . .
  • #422
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:16am Jul 25, 2013 10:16am
Quoting LamerTrader
True, however I would love to know more about your numbers. I mean what is the min/max risk, and how do you manage it accordingly to the trade (I mean A+ - x%, B trade x*0,7% etc.) Cheers, Stephen
For what its worth,

I risk 2% per trade on most trades. Some times I will drop this down to 1.5% or 1% but never beyond 2%.

For the most part, its a dichotomy that I face. Either a setup is worth trading or its not. There may be some merit to allocating different risk percentages to different setups but for me the simplicity associated with categorizing the trade as either tradable or untradable works.

I am not sure what an A+ trade is and what a B- trade is. It takes me less then 10 minutes to scan through 60+ charts at the end of each day and I am not stopping for more than a few seconds on each chart. If a setup catches my eye during that period I know its in my radar. If it doesn't, its a pass anyways.

If its still unclear, it saves me the hassle of looking at a mediocre setup and wondering whether to allocate it a C+ or a C- and following that, whether to allocate 1% of my account to it or 2%.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #423
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:42am Jul 25, 2013 10:42am
Quoting ghous
There are stories strongly in favor of your bias. There are stories strongly against your bias. And then there are neutral stories. Price oscillating in sideways swings not majorly representing one direction very obviously over another can sometime yield some nice short term trades. Here's one I took today. {image} Just a nice decent swing point coupled with space. Notice we don't have any aspects and factors that make up a bigger badder story but we also don't have anything big going against it either. These can be good snacks to munch on while...
Out at BE.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #424
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:48am Jul 25, 2013 10:48am
waiting for these for daily trades. Just getting killed on lower time frames lately
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  • #425
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:51am Jul 25, 2013 10:51am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Out at BE. {image} g.
May I ask what made you to follow your trade reduce risk to BE and got taken out?
/I just love to learn trade mgm. /
Thanks!

Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #426
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:57am Jul 25, 2013 10:57am
Quoting kerinsp
waiting for these for daily trades. Just getting killed on lower time frames lately {image} {image} {image}
You know when you are trying to open this large door that's jammed because it hasn't been opened in a while. You push at it and it won't budge. And then you wait a bit, gather more people and launch together towards the door and push at it with all the force you have? Poor door, its still only a door. You crack it open or break it to pieces but you still get access to the room you were looking to get into.

All these scenarios remind me of this analogy

Enough said.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #427
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:11am Jul 25, 2013 11:11am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} May I ask what made you to follow your trade reduce risk to BE and got taken out? /I just love to learn trade mgm. / Thanks! Stephen
Once price started to make a move down, I was looking at a clear path to the blue area I highlighted. The action till then was exactly what I wanted to see. Price hurried into the HHR and got rejected literally within less than an hour.

But soon after we see price stall a bit and despite what looks like clear space, price seems to be hitting some invisible hurdles here. If this was true momentum price should have drooled down into the blue area. Because it was showing hesitation for no apparent reason, I had a reason to curtail my risk.

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hope this makes sense.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #428
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:50pm Jul 25, 2013 6:50pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Once price gave some indication that it was hesitant to go down, up was always going to be the easier path for price to follow. I mentioned earlier I liked that wick on the fake out bar {image} g.
Looking forward to seeing the wick being filled on this bar. Once again no real reason for the selling to come in (probably some options at 4.25 instinctively being protected). I would like my stop at the yellow dash drawn on the chart, but its a little too close to actually execute. Will have to manually sit this through.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #429
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:00pm Jul 25, 2013 8:00pm
This is some gap we have here.
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  • #430
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:02pm Jul 25, 2013 8:02pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Looking forward to seeing the wick being filled on this bar. Once again no real reason for the selling to come in (probably some options at 4.25 instinctively being protected). I would like my stop at the yellow dash drawn on the chart, but its a little too close to actually execute. Will have to manually sit this through. {image} g.
Another IPB in the making perhaps?
  • #431
  • Edited 9:01pm Jul 25, 2013 8:38pm | Edited 9:01pm
These are what I am looking at and learning to sit on my hands.

I would like to hear what Ghous thinks about these, including criticism which, is most important.

We already talked about EJ and Mike did a video on similar questions about it in the J16 thread so, I am just really observing what happens on that one.
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  • #432
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:53am Jul 26, 2013 12:53am
Quoting Pinbar
These are what I am looking at and learning to sit on my hands. I would like to hear what Ghous thinks about these, including criticism which, is most important. We already talked about EJ and Mike did a video on similar questions about it in the J16 thread so, I am just really observing what happens on that one. {image}
Looking good Steve,

I particularly like BA#

g.
I believe . . .
  • #433
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:02am Jul 26, 2013 1:02am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Another IPB in the making perhaps?
Not an IPB but a weak pin bar for sure.

G.
I believe . . .
  • #434
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:21am Jul 26, 2013 1:21am
Thank you guys for your valuable input! (Special Thanks for Ghous, Helius and Pinbar )
Have you ever guys (especially Ghous) wondered using 2 Day fakeout at a PPZ? I mean we got a minor Weekly or major Daily PPZ and there we see a 2 day fakeout where price first closes below but then on the next day it clearly closes above this level. As I have noticed lately at these "trades" we can have a nice shoot for 1:1 R/R or so. OR you guys only look for 2day pins (aka fakeouts) at major swing lows / swing highs.

Helius!
Thank you very much for your feedback. Hopefully during the weekend I can sit back a bit and I can start playing with forextester.

Thanks,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #435
  • Jul 26, 2013 4:32am Jul 26, 2013 4:32am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Looking good Steve, I particularly like BA# g.

Thanks Ghous

Sitting on my hands is tough.
  • #436
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:12am Jul 26, 2013 5:12am
Both DAX and USDJPY are at very interesting levels. Now we need to wait and see what price does and if it gives us a possible setup.

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Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #437
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:33am Jul 26, 2013 5:33am
Hmm, I am thinking perhaps, I could have entered the #BA at the open of the Daily Gap candle and played till it filled the gap.


Or is this just my mind trying to lure my hands from under my butt? LOL
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  • #438
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:57am Jul 26, 2013 7:57am
Quoting LamerTrader
Thank you guys for your valuable input! (Special Thanks for Ghous, Helius and Pinbar ) Have you ever guys (especially Ghous) wondered using 2 Day fakeout at a PPZ? I mean we got a minor Weekly or major Daily PPZ and there we see a 2 day fakeout where price first closes below but then on the next day it clearly closes above this level. As I have noticed lately at these "trades" we can have a nice shoot for 1:1 R/R or so. OR you guys only look for 2day pins (aka fakeouts) at major swing lows / swing highs. Helius! Thank you very much for your feedback....
Hey Stephen,

Normally I am looking for a single bar fake out only, but in rare circumstances, when the location is sound and there are other elemants of the bigger story supporting the case I may go for a double bar fake out. An example would be the USD/NOK trade I shared here at this thread a little earlier.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #439
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:58am Jul 26, 2013 7:58am
and here goes the DAX. We did not see a rounded retest yet, but an "immediate" retest after the break of the level.

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Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #440
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:05am Jul 26, 2013 8:05am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Thanks Ghous Sitting on my hands is tough.
Yes it can get tough. Specially if you can't take your eyes off the charts. if you can't walk away and let the markets do their thing. Not saying you're doing this Steve, but a lot of people who complain about getting bored between the big gaps is because they are coming off from a shorter time frame mentality and are used to being in on the action all the time.

And I have been there and done that.

Over time though I have started to actually appreciate and like the freedom that the higher time frames provide me with. I know I am still making money while doing anything that I want off the charts.

Yes this is not an advantage to a trader overly obsessed with charts but then you need your priorities sorted out. I have always believed that there actually do exist separate categories of traders. The high frequency and the low frequency traders. And no its not something that stems out entirely from the trading method. It has its roots deeper into the personality of the individual traders and the unique comfort zones.

When I started off God knows, I was scratching my head off during the potentially long waiting periods in between trades but some time down the road I have begun to like it...correction...love it. Its the virtue of patience that you exhibit during these dry periods that can ultimately determine your long term success and demarcate the thick line between a real trader and a wannabe trader.



g.
I believe . . .
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