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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #4,781
  • Jun 25, 2013 7:09pm Jun 25, 2013 7:09pm
I see what you mean: for trend trades, only take the purest PBs, in strong trend (also on H1, H4), wait for good (not weak) retracements (around 21 EMA if possible), wick clearly stuck out and with negative divergence, even if 2,3 trades total per week?
I've read the thread of course, Ryan's posts from J16 and his comments. Backtesting this strategy shows to be very profitable, but since I started to forward test it (on demo) I blew up few accounts already.
I've tried all kinds of TPs,TSL... time frames, so far the only ones that seem to work somehow for me are on H1, 4% risk (that's what I use everywhere and that's what I think it's
part of the problem on M5). Another issue I guess I have is that the market is mostly in a range at htfs and I jump into these trap trades (M5), desperate not to miss any signal. So, emotions might be the main cause that I'm not seeing constant green pips with this.
Anyway it's good that this thread reignited a little. I just love this strategy!
r u ready?
  • #4,782
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:24am Jun 26, 2013 2:24am
Ok, so tell me what is so wrong with 2-3 trades prer week? Trading is boooooringgggg, so it is time to get used to this.

2-3 winners/ week with nice acc is still a lot of money, and important thing is consistency. Not 100% gains one week and -50% the other week, but slow and steady profits. I know that every new trader wants to become millionaire in one month.


And last but not least. Track the time, i personally play only first 3 hours of London session and i close all trades before NY open. Sometimes it is easy to see how trend changes after maket open.


Every country wants something else for thier currency.
  • #4,783
  • Jun 26, 2013 5:43am Jun 26, 2013 5:43am
I agree that has to be boring and I know I gotta change. I trade the first 5 hrs of the London session.
Is it correct my criteria about the T trades?
Another thing is this: sometimes PBs have a little bigger body but in the best place to take, you don't take them, they were winners, one day you take one of this, it fails, you curse, lol. Then, others have a perfect shape, but a little bit in traffic or near the 50 SMA, or no div, same story...
Check this for example (EJ):
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I know not all suppose to be winners, but... you see what I'm saying?
r u ready?
  • #4,784
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:57pm Jun 30, 2013 5:57pm
Kablaaaam.
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  • #4,785
  • Jul 2, 2013 9:47am Jul 2, 2013 9:47am
Quoting Forex007
{quote} Why do you need an indi for a PB?! PB is a dead simple concept. Besides, the LOCATION of where PB is occurring is MUCH more important than the "characteristics" of PB itself. No indi can help you with that. Taking screenshots is a great idea (I use http://www.jingproject.com/), I do it all the time - you can then go back, after the event, and try to see all the conditions around your entry to see if you can spot some consistent factors which make an entry good or bad. As for the latter, I came up (by mistake ) with the following...

I thought the above is worth repeating for new ( and old) members alike. Test your decision making bar by bar from the right hand edge of the chart :-)
(Gets rid of that hindsight bias and injects a note of reality.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,786
  • Jul 13, 2013 5:35pm Jul 13, 2013 5:35pm
Quoting rtrs111
Yesterday I got 3 consecutive losses (M5, E/G) with this pattern, that keeps showing quite often: {image} Do you guys have any idea how to avoid these kind of failed bull flags?
Sorry to say, but bars that you have selected aren't good atall, jankone said many times that the pins must be long with short body.

Look his examples again and again and again.
:
  • #4,787
  • Jul 14, 2013 7:00am Jul 14, 2013 7:00am
I know what you mean, but I was playing these mostly because backtesting results with 1-1 R:R. Test it for yourself, even if trading smaller wicks, not too much stuck out, a little bigger bodies, will give you a higher than 60% winners. In fact other R:Rs will show also to be (very) profitable. Didn't happen though when I started trading them... due to higher transaction costs, position size and emotions. Last week I picked just the best PBs and got good results (15 pips TP now). Thx!
r u ready?
  • #4,788
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:07am Jul 17, 2013 1:07am
Some higher time frame action..
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  • #4,789
  • Jul 23, 2013 9:09am Jul 23, 2013 9:09am
Quoting stockEX
Yes its less hectic, you also don´t have to discard so many trades due to better TP areas.
Read some of your older posts. Excellent comment about trading times (15 minutes) and your post, above , about keeping at it through good and bad times since every trade cannot be a winner.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,790
  • Jul 23, 2013 10:50am Jul 23, 2013 10:50am
Yeah, this is what its all about.

Most people only look for win-loss ratios like it was the only aspect of trading.Its wierd, everybody here risks 2% per trade, some even risk less like 1% or 0,5%.But when the losers come they panic.That just makes no sense, if I would know that I win 8 out of 10 trades then why the hell limit my profits like that, you could risk 10% or more.

If you have trouble trading then the best advice I can give is ,turn of your computer ,take a day off and use that day to think about what you really need to make profits.Do you really think you need 80% winners?

What if say you have only 20% winners 40% BE and 40% losers? Sounds horrible right?

But it really isn't. If you have an average R:R of 1:3 then you are making money with this win loss ratio.And R:R 1:3 trades are nothing out of the ordinary.What about an average R:R of 1:2 with 30% winners 40%BE and 30% losers? Think that would make you money?

What about R:R 1:3 with 50% winners 30% BE and 20% losers?

Demo this method see what you can do then think about what angle you need to change to make it work for you.
  • #4,791
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:54pm Jul 23, 2013 2:54pm
Actually with 80% winners, R:R 1-1 the most profit you would make with 60% risk, according to the Kelly formula
The answer to your last question would be a holy grail: SQN=8.4 - with 2% risk would multiply your initial account almost 17 times after just 100 trades.
I've been thinking about FTA trades and last weekend I've tested those with R:R 1-1 and didn't seem to make a difference in profit. But never tried though to leave the trade running to the next PPZ. I kind of ignored S/D zones, PA, fibos... since Jankone never mentioned those, just fixed R:Rs and also based on back testing. Ryan wrote once that he uses re-badged James16 stuff though but wasn't more specific.
I've also calculated a while ago, the expectancy and SQNs for various R:R combinations anf risks per trade. As you mentioned in your examples all these are very profitable on paper, the problem comes when you start to trade them. 4% risk will mess up your emotions too much, I switched to 2%. Haven't tried BE. I'm gonna post some charts maybe you guys can comment them. Thx.
r u ready?
  • #4,792
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:38pm Jul 23, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting rtrs111
Actually with 80% winners, R:R 1-1 the most profit you would make with 60% risk, according to the Kelly formula
More like the fastest way to ruin.Just because you have 80% winners does not mean a losing streak of 5-6 conscutive losses will never happen.

Quoting rtrs111
The answer to your last question would be a holy grail: SQN=8.4 - with 2% risk would multiply your initial account almost 17 times after just 100 trades. I've been thinking about FTA trades and last weekend I've tested those with R:R 1-1 and didn't seem to make a difference in profit. But never tried though to leave the trade running to the next PPZ. I kind of ignored S/D zones, PA, fibos... since Jankone never mentioned those, just fixed R:Rs and also based on back testing. Ryan wrote once that he uses re-badged James16 stuff though but wasn't...
Something about your post lets it look like you are trying to build a trading bot. This is a trend-following system, trading fixed R:R's and ignoring S/R areas is just the worst thing you can do with this.If you are trying to eliminate the discretionary component of this method you won't be successful with it.

Let me assure you that both Jankone and Ryan are well aware of its importance, this whole thread is an offshoot of the J16 thread.
  • #4,793
  • Jul 23, 2013 6:58pm Jul 23, 2013 6:58pm
I don't think someone could build a successful trading bot based on this method. It's just that I like mechanical systems, not too discretionary. It hasn't been too emphasized that we must use S/Rs and other J16 PA stuff, that's another reason I didn't consider it too much yet. I used just HTF trends so far.
r u ready?
  • #4,794
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:08pm Jul 23, 2013 8:08pm
2 examples from today (GU, M5), 1 didn't work, 2 gave me 15 pips:
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r u ready?
  • #4,795
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:13pm Jul 23, 2013 8:13pm
And another one from yesterday that failed (on EU) - comments are more than welcome:
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r u ready?
  • #4,796
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:42am Jul 24, 2013 9:42am
Quoting rtrs111
2 examples from today (GU, M5), 1 didn't work, 2 gave me 15 pips: {image}
Second one with div on S/R level, on top of the move is great. But first one on the middle of nowhere
Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
  • #4,797
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:57am Jul 24, 2013 9:57am
I was checking my trades with pinbars, win rate is 80%, but I always looking for divergence and for M5 my TP10, but normally I close after 3rd bar, and my average is 5pips per trade. So my risk reward is 2:1, which is really low.

This thread is bean here for a while. Is anybody making a good living of this method ???
Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
  • #4,798
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:09am Jul 24, 2013 10:09am
It didn't fail, it just behaved a little different then you wanted it to

Quoting monocor
{quote} Second one with div on S/R level, on top of the move is great. But first one on the middle of nowhere
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  • #4,799
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:11am Jul 24, 2013 10:11am
Quoting monocor
{quote} Second one with div on S/R level, on top of the move is great. But first one on the middle of nowhere
First one was not a strong retracement or near any S/D level, I took it because of the strength of the drop and based on backtesting - statistically this type of retracement makes money.
r u ready?
  • #4,800
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:20am Jul 24, 2013 10:20am
From my experience I am taking only pinbars with divergence, by the trend or countertenor, doesn't have matter, it gives me the edge.
Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
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