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Attachments: HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread
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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #381
  • Jul 23, 2013 7:42am Jul 23, 2013 7:42am
Quoting Donkey
{quote} I think that is a reasonable scenario. I am keenly watching the HCR and associated high I have marked as this is an important area. If we have SFP in that area I would certainly think a run down to 132.8 is likely depending on if any space or traffic is created in the forming of the sfp. Couple of other formations I will be watching for will be another HCR in confluence with the current one or an SFP with a close below the current HCR (like your diagram). Either of these would show strength to the level. {image}

Thanks D

Just making sure I am not imagining this possible scenario.
  • #382
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:22am Jul 23, 2013 8:22am
Funny, with these HCR LCS levels, I often see an H1 Inside bar straddling the level before it takes off.
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  • #383
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:12am Jul 23, 2013 11:12am
Quoting Pinbar
Ghous & Donkey What is your opinion of the possibility of seeing an SFP on EJ at this level? I think, if we do see one at the 1.3400 it may give us a run to 1.3280 {image}
These are the scenarios that always get me nervous.

yes we may get a fake out there. But just looking at the very strong trend up and a rising consolidation pattern coupled with no real confluence at the swing high would make me very uneasy personally.

Remember that fake outs and wicks that turn out to be false can get filled in very quickly as price then simply finds them to be easier path to flow in to.

Like I said a fake out may well be expected here, but is it more likely to encourage some real bearish action or will price just be taking out some stops to clear the path out for fresh bullish order flow?

Judging from the information we have available (lack of confluence and a strong up trend along with not that strong and deep a swing high) I would be hesitant wanting to expect the former scenario.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #384
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:19am Jul 23, 2013 11:19am
Agree Ghous! Also I think the way price is approaching the level is not tempting.

When you want to go short the best thing that can happen is when prices rallies into the level. Why?
Because for the average retail trader it will look like price is strong and we are in an uptrend and he better buys into it because we will break the level - yiihaaa!


But more often than not, this is the way the big guys are trapping the small traders. They are pushing prices up fast but their only plan is to reverse, and sell to all the retails traders that are hoping for the uptrend and the break of a level.

No one gives a sh** if price moves slowly. But that is often how a break of a level will be approached!

One big odd enhancer therefore is: If you want to sell, look for big rallies into a level. (and vice versa)
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #385
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:41am Jul 23, 2013 11:41am
Quoting Helius
Agree Ghous! Also I think the way price is approaching the level is not tempting. When you want to go short the best thing that can happen is when prices rallies into the level. Why? Because for the average retail trader it will look like price is strong and we are in an uptrend and he better buys into it because we will break the level - yiihaaa! But more often than not, this is the way the big guys are trapping the small traders. They are pushing prices up fast but their only plan is to reverse, and sell to all the retails traders that are hoping...
Excellent point!

I missed mentioning that

g.
I believe . . .
  • #386
  • Jul 23, 2013 1:59pm Jul 23, 2013 1:59pm
anything on the radar? I can not see any FX pair even close to a decent swing point
  • #387
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:07pm Jul 23, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting kerinsp
anything on the radar? I can not see any FX pair even close to a decent swing point
Nothing except EUR/PLN for me. Still a few hours to the daily close so we may or may not have it.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #388
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:43pm Jul 23, 2013 2:43pm
USDCAD might be setting up some nice RR. Time will tell
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #389
  • Edited 8:11pm Jul 23, 2013 7:52pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Nothing except EUR/PLN for me. Still a few hours to the daily close so we may or may not have it. g.

Glad to hear that it is not only me who sees very little around at the moment.
It is probably in times like this that we get tempted into mediocre or even, bad setups.

Also, thanks for your take on EJ.
Yeah, the trickling back to level did have me concerned as it does not create space to move back through.

Thanks to Helius for his take on it also.

The only thing it really has going for it is the mid level of the weekly consolidation box which, is also the SP.
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  • #390
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:01pm Jul 23, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Nothing except EUR/PLN for me. Still a few hours to the daily close so we may or may not have it. g.

Looks like, it is the latter rather than the former.
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  • #391
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:27pm Jul 23, 2013 8:27pm
Quoting Donkey
Story on EURUSD...watching not trading....goes back to earlier post about missing entries when the close is above the highs of HCR bar. I will follow this chart with notes on how I consider trading these setups. This goes along with pins diagram as well. EDIT: f'd up original attachment. Basically today we had a PBTCA a daily HCR level and the highs of the HCR candles. The PBTCA candle was also a SFP candle. I'm biased long on this scenario. I think everything shows up on the attached explaining howa few ways to play today's setup. {image}
Quote this one worked out well. Today's low was within 2 pips of the daily HCR. Today's close gives confirmation that the level is now support.
This was the type of move I was looking for out of EURAUD that I entered last week, and have since closed at BE.
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  • #392
  • Jul 23, 2013 9:02pm Jul 23, 2013 9:02pm
Food for thought.

I am slowly leaning towards the way of thinking that Ghous described.

Look at GU, it has been running for weeks & made it to the FTA, STA and is now challenging the TTA.
Yeah, we may not find too many trades every month but, so what, if the runners run, we don't need to.
If we can stay in the market, with profit locked in and manage the trade, isn't that what it is all about?


Jumping in and out of trades on lower tfs, exposes our capital to risk, we pay the spread numerous times and sit like a prisoner, in front of a computer screen biting our nails. Might as well have a job as, it is the same thing only, probably more stressful.

As Livermore said, "Sitting on our hands is the hardest part".
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  • #393
  • Jul 23, 2013 9:11pm Jul 23, 2013 9:11pm
This is how, I am trying to look at the market.

It is hard for sure, could be weeks or months, before price gets there and even then, it may or may not give us what we are looking for.
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  • #394
  • Edited 1:48am Jul 24, 2013 12:37am | Edited 1:48am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Looks like, it is the latter rather than the former. {image}
That was turning out to be a great fake out bar with that upper wick to it! Unfortunately it couldn't close as a fake out. Disappointing really.

Interesting to see what price will do next. Now that we have closed under the LLS, is it going to continue its way down, or are bullish orders still waiting for something.

THIS IS A HUGE LEVEL, fake out or no fake out this would make for a great case study. :nerd:

g.
I believe . . .
  • #395
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:11am Jul 24, 2013 2:11am
Quoting ghous
{quote} That was turning out to be a great fake out bar with that upper wick to it! Unfortunately it couldn't close as a fake out. Disappointing really. Interesting to see what price will do next. Now that we have closed under the LLS, is it going to continue its way down, or are bullish orders still waiting for something. THIS IS A HUGE LEVEL, fake out or no fake out this would make for a great case study. :nerd: g.
price has closed below the LLS by a just a few pips and visually when I am looking at my charts it seems to have closed very nearly on the LLS itself. I am hugely impressed with the location and the look we have on that...well a hard shot fake out bar.

Staring at this at 3 am in the middle of the night with an unplayable spread and dodgy close could not enable me to pull the trigger.

Now that I am looking at it, and as the more active sessions come into play (reducing the spread) and more importantly the fact that price has shown no real intent of staying true to that close below the LLS I am increasingly confident on this one.

Again I typically like to see everything in order but here a close perturbed by a few pips hasn't been able to dump the entire bigger story comprising of hundreds of thousands of pips and almost a year of trading action.

This was a no to begin with, but as things are unfolding and because of the wonderful attributes to this setup, I am actually in this one (with half the normal risk)

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #396
  • Jul 24, 2013 3:15am Jul 24, 2013 3:15am
Quoting ghous
{quote} price has closed below the LLS by a just a few pips and visually when I am looking at my charts it seems to have closed very nearly on the LLS itself. I am hugely impressed with the location and the look we have on that...well a hard shot fake out bar. Staring at this at 3 am in the middle of the night with an unplayable spread and dodgy close could not enable me to pull the trigger. Now that I am looking at it, and as the more active sessions come into play (reducing the spread) and more importantly the fact that price has shown no real...
Yes, despite the daily Close, I think this is a strong level &, possibly the M-HCR and consolidation just below the level, is still in play.

The Hourly seems to have some kind of story going on this level.
Just look at those pin highs.
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  • #397
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:23am Jul 24, 2013 5:23am
Hi

Please forgive me for asking a question before reading the entire thread first, if you have answered a similar question, and I have missed your answer, I apologise.

I am not new to trading but am new to your system and find it very interesting.

My question is regarding how you go about identifying and marking up your monthly, weekly and daily levels? In the pages I have read so far, you have described what you are looking for when price approaches these levels but I am still not totally clear on how you identify those levels in the first place.

Many thanks
Mike
  • #398
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:26am Jul 24, 2013 5:26am
just go through the thread. There are numerous of charts and explanations.

Welcome in the thread btw
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #399
  • Jul 24, 2013 8:28am Jul 24, 2013 8:28am
Quoting Trader4567
Hi Please forgive me for asking a question before reading the entire thread first, if you have answered a similar question, and I have missed your answer, I apologise. I am not new to trading but am new to your system and find it very interesting. My question is regarding how you go about identifying and marking up your monthly, weekly and daily levels? In the pages I have read so far, you have described what you are looking for when price approaches these levels but I am still not totally clear on how you identify those levels in the first place....
I can only suggest what Helius did. When the thread was only 15 pages long I started it all over again cause I was missing some pieces. I went through every post, VERY carefully, i took a screenshot of the more important posts, highlighted the valuable informations and saved them on my hard drive. Obviously it took some time, but it's worth it...

Cheers,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #400
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:05am Jul 24, 2013 10:05am
Putting too much emphasis on daily close might set you up for troubles...

How do you chose the closing time of your daily candles? NYSE closing time? Then you are neglecting London, the Aussies and the asian sessions.
Daily candles don't say anthing because every trader will have a completely different chart when it comes to daily candles. Therefore what might be a buy on one broker is a stand-aside on the other - or even a sell on the third broker.

Trader in New York use 65-minutes charts to get 6 equal candles during the New York session.

The only timeframes that will look 100% identical are 1H, 30min, 15min, 5 min, 1 min.. charts because start and stop periods will always have to be the same.

Just something you might consider when putting together your methodology. A daily candle close should always be just the last piece of a puzzle when it comes to entering a trade
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
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