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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,481
  • Jul 21, 2013 10:05pm Jul 21, 2013 10:05pm
22 July 2013

EUR - D closed positive, 4hr on higher low flow. Approaching the highs from 16/17 July. Bias up but we can move lower from the highs.

GU - D closed positive. Approaching the highs from 3/4 July. Bias up but we can move lower from the resistance level.

EJ - D closed positive. The move above 132.50 on 22 May rejected strongly. Bias up but we can move lower from the resistance level.

EURAUD - D closed positive but could not break Thursdays high. Bias up but we can move lower from the resistance level.

AUD - D closed a shooting star but could not break Thursdays low. Bias down but we can move higher from the support level.
  • #6,482
  • Jul 22, 2013 8:29am Jul 22, 2013 8:29am
Our recent obsession with EURAUD continues.

Sold just above 1.4300 after the 1hr negative close shooting star rejecting the resistance level mentioned this morning. At the moment we are hovering around +40 with the stop at BE. TP just above W S1 1.4186. If we get there and not out at BE I'll post chart.
  • #6,483
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:48pm Jul 22, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting Vantage
Our recent obsession with EURAUD continues. Sold just above 1.4300 after the 1hr negative close shooting star rejecting the resistance level mentioned this morning. At the moment we are hovering around +40 with the stop at BE. TP just above W S1 1.4186. If we get there and not out at BE I'll post chart.

Mmmmh we saw the potential low from 19 July as a support level but placed our TP below at W S1 1.4186. We'll see if this is a costly error. Stop still at BE and we are sitting on +65 at the moment, of course that can change very quickly.
  • #6,484
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:48pm Jul 22, 2013 9:48pm
23 July 2013
EUR - D closed higher with an upper wick. 4hr higher low cycle, also showing an upper wick. Price action is not the same as 11 July when the Asian session gave us a big upper wick. Bias up with potential to move lower from the highs.

GU - D closed positive at a potential resistance area from 11 April 2013. Bias up.

EJ - D closed negative 3 bar reversal. 4hr lower high after divergence has played out. Can either be a dip in uptrend or start of reversal, no bias can go either way.

EURAUD - D closed negative, 3 bar reversal, the lows from 19 July holding. 4hr is ranging, 1hr flow still clearly down. Bias down with potential to move higher from support.

AUD - Positive D close, 4hr on higher high higher low but seems a struggle to go higher. Bias up with potential to move lower from the upper resistance level.
  • #6,485
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:53am Jul 23, 2013 12:53am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Mmmmh we saw the potential low from 19 July as a support level but placed our TP below at W S1 1.4186. We'll see if this is a costly error. Stop still at BE and we are sitting on +65 at the moment, of course that can change very quickly.
Gave it some more chances to go this morning, it didn't. Out at 1.4235 for +67, will post charts later.
  • #6,486
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:43am Jul 23, 2013 2:43am
Sold GU 1.5351, bought EURAUD 1.4259. Both had multiple 1hr candle stalls at potential support/resistance areas. Will post charts reasons etc later should they follow through.
  • #6,487
  • Jul 23, 2013 5:09am Jul 23, 2013 5:09am
Quoting Vantage
Sold GU 1.5351, bought EURAUD 1.4259. Both had multiple 1hr candle stalls at potential support/resistance areas. Will post charts reasons etc later should they follow through.
EURAUD 1hr a massive upper wick shooting star. Yes we are above the 8lwma still (so not entirely convincing as to move down) but with that 1hr candle will exit at BE and live with whatever happens.
  • #6,488
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:44am Jul 23, 2013 8:44am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Gave it some more chances to go this morning, it didn't. Out at 1.4235 for +67, will post charts later.

Chart from yesterdays trade held over night. +67.

Both today's trades were out at BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,489
  • Jul 23, 2013 10:04pm Jul 23, 2013 10:04pm
24 July 2013
Click on date for 4hr charts.

EUR - D closed positive above the 11 July high on another low range day, we are above our moving averages and RSI 50 level. 4hr upper wicks but flow higher high higher low. 1hr has made a lower high in Asian session probably on the AUD CPI news. Bias up but there are signs that the cracks are beginning to show and the move above the 11 July spike may yet be a fake.

GU - D closed with what looks like a hanging man at the end of move up (click on date above see Candlesticker in useful links on blog, bearish patterns) failing to break the resistance level again (12 July 2012 low, bodies high 11, 12 Apr 2013). 4hr showing divergence and RSI has crossed lower, showing potential for lower high following divergence. Sells here short term until D turns.

EJ - D closed a doji after a negative close 3 bar reversal, obvious indecision. 4hr made a lower high (following divergence which did follow through lower for a scalp sell) and now possibly forming a higher low. Should this confirm then bias up back into D trend.

EURAUD - Massive reaction to AUD CPI news. In the bigger picture we are going sideways for the last week between 1.4170 and 1.4330. Whilst I think up no bias until after effects of the news are clear.

AUD - D closed positive at the 0.9300 resistance level. Also a massive reaction to the AUD news. I think down but no bias until the after effects of news are clear.
  • #6,490
  • Edited 11:42am Jul 24, 2013 2:52am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting Vantage
EURAUD - Massive reaction to AUD CPI news. In the bigger picture we are going sideways for the last week between 1.4170 and 1.4330. Whilst I think up no bias until after effects of the news are clear.
1hr positive close at 1.4280, cleared the immediate range. Did not generate a 3 bar reversal signal, whilst we closed higher than the previous 2 candle closes, both were green. Need 1 of 2 prior closes to be red for the indi to alert as a buy.

Both the V's were otherwise engaged, that's a quick 100 pip miss. No problem, just wanted to show.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,491
  • Jul 24, 2013 8:25am Jul 24, 2013 8:25am
Bought EURAUD after the 1hr hammer 1.4369. We have 20-30 pips to the high and will have this one on a tight leash. Will post charts if we pop up.
  • #6,492
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:05am Jul 24, 2013 9:05am
Quoting Vantage
Bought EURAUD after the 1hr hammer 1.4369. We have 20-30 pips to the high and will have this one on a tight leash. Will post charts if we pop up.

Got to +35 or so and moved stop to BE. Mrs V is not happy but we have had several rejects at this level over the past month and even a large stop could get hit. So its BE or we pop up.
  • #6,493
  • Edited 11:45am Jul 24, 2013 10:30am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Got to +35 or so and moved stop to BE. Mrs V is not happy but we have had several rejects at this level over the past month and even a large stop could get hit. So its BE or we pop up.
1hr hammer, higher low in uptrend. After a very strong run up after LO already for this US session trade an exit at W R1 is reasonable +62. Not even oak trees grow to the sky.

Happy with this considering this mornings missed entry to the bigger part of the move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,494
  • Jul 24, 2013 1:36pm Jul 24, 2013 1:36pm
Hello Dave. What's your opinion on this..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...urrencies.html

“Political rather than economic” factors tend to move markets now, Robert Savage, the chief strategist , said in a July 22 phone interview from New York. “This is a hard business whether you’re on a gut-checking basis or computer-model basis. Either way, no one’s making money easily.”



With the arising of EA's ans such, Is discretionary trading going to slid away ?
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,495
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:34pm Jul 24, 2013 9:34pm
Quoting money89
Hello Dave. What's your opinion on this.. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...urrencies.html “Political rather than economic” factors tend to move markets now, Robert Savage, the chief strategist , said in a July 22 phone interview from New York. “This is a hard business whether you’re on a gut-checking basis or computer-model basis. Either way, no one’s making money easily.” With the arising of EA's ans such, Is discretionary trading going to slid away ?
Is discretionary trading going to fall away? I doubt it.

Ignoring the adverts for the make millions in 6 weeks if you just pay us $300 for our proven EA (but strangely no proof provided). Whenever I see actual proven results from people that are running EA's live (Fxpro and Vantage FX are 2 examples) the results are nowhere near and whilst compares well to parking your money in a bank, are not really very good. Maybe there are good EA's out there I just don't know about them.

Ronald Raygun I seem to remember runs about 30ea's that he has written or picked up from forex factory but he is an exception. Most of the other prolific EA writers that I have seen have a couple they regard as having promise. Never bothered to follow up on whether that promise lived up to expectations.

Search 100pipsaday at FF for his triple screen method or his D 20 50 method if you want to. Both have a trend definition from D chart then buy dips sell rallies from 1hr.
  • #6,496
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:59pm Jul 24, 2013 9:59pm
25 July 2013
EUR - D closed negative after London open move up, RSI is flat and we are above the 8lwma so nothing convincing yet for change in D trend. 4hr still on higher high higher low after giving a counter trend sell signal with RSI cross lower. 1hr made a lower high in US session yesterday and now on a higher low. Looks like dip in uptrend, bias up.

GU - D closed negative after the hanging man at the end of run and 4hr RSI divergence/cross lower for scalp sell. Now we have an evening star pattern but D RSI has not crossed lower and we are still above the 8lwma, so nothing convincing yet. 4hr looks like its made lower highs to me, 1hr on higher lows. Lots of conflicting information staying on bias up.

EJ - After the D doji, 4hr did indeed make a higher low to resume uptrend. D closed positive. 4hr back on higher high higher low. Bias up, can react lower from the resistance area 132.50.

EURAUD - D closed positive stalling at W R1/June highs. Obviously we can react lower from here but bias remains up.

AUD - D engulfing negative close from the 0.9300 resistance level that has been upper end of range for a couple of weeks now. Bias down.
  • #6,497
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:17am Jul 25, 2013 5:17am
Eur/Usd 15 Min Entry
]
Identified support level off 1 Hr and 15 min chart (1st level did not hold). (On 1 Hr %R price had dropped to oversold). At 2nd level got a nice 3 Bar Reversal which I took.

Will now move SL to BE, as price hanging up at Daily Pivot and Weekly Resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,498
  • Jul 25, 2013 7:15am Jul 25, 2013 7:15am
Quoting mt2
Eur/Usd 15 Min Entry ] Identified support level off 1 Hr and 15 min chart (1st level did not hold). (On 1 Hr %R price had dropped to oversold). At 2nd level got a nice 3 Bar Reversal which I took. Will now move SL to BE, as price hanging up at Daily Pivot and Weekly Resistance. {image}
I see your TP got hit, nice one.
  • #6,499
  • Jul 25, 2013 9:39pm Jul 25, 2013 9:39pm
26 July 2013
Click on date for 4hr charts + EJ 1hr.

EUR - UK morning news pushed EUR down to a previously identified support area, Mar/Apr lows. From there moved up in line with bias, continuing higher into the US close at the Dec '12 highs/W R2. 4hr on higher high, showing negative divergence. Asian session did not break the high which is not uncommon. Bias up.

GU - Similar story to EUR. Positive D close, 4hr made a higher high and showing negative divergence. We have a resistance area at 1.5400 where there is potential to fall, however bias up.

EJ - D closed negative, reacting to the identified resistance area 132.50 with divergence, followed through lower in Asian session. 4hr yesterday a horrible chart with numerous lower wicks. Worth noting from the 1hr chart, the candles that did follow through lower yesterday all had little/no lower wicks. Bias down.

EURAUD - Bias up did not follow through, moved lower from the mentioned W R1/June highs. Range bound trading continues (1.4450 - 1.4200) and we can go either way in the range.

AUD - Range bound trading continues for now the range has narrowed (0.9300 - 0.9120), we can go either way in the range.
  • #6,500
  • Jul 28, 2013 9:58pm Jul 28, 2013 9:58pm
29 July 2013
Click on date for D charts. Fri we considered selling EJ but for one reason or another blew it in US session. No trades taken.

EUR - D closed a doji after moves during the London and US morning sessions failed to break Thursdays high. 4hr showing negative divergence. Whilst a retracement lower would be no surprise viewing this as pause in uptrend until D gives some kind of confirmation (engulfing negative close, RSI cross, close below 8lwma).

GU - Very similar picture to EUR.

EJ - D closed negative, 4hr lower high lower low flow, bias down.

EURAUD - D closed negative but the move below Thursdays low was quickly rejected. D RSI flat and we are above the 8lwma. 4hr RSI flat, we can either be on a higher low or lower high depending on how we close. Whilst the uptrend has struggled at 1.4400 The Thur/Fri move lower has arguably been the weakest attempt lower. A 4hr negative close would be a sell signal but I suspect bias up.

AUD - A solid positive close on Thurs and the move about its high on Fri had little follow through. A 4hr negative close would be a sell signal. No bias still range bound and can go either way.
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