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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #361
  • Edited 7:05am Jul 21, 2013 4:46am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Yeah, the order flow and tempting the masses onto the wrong side of the fence. This is what got me interested in the SFP originally. Although, as I am sure you know, Price Action such as a PB or BUEOB is the same manifestation of the bigger scheme, trapping people into a trade, hitting their SL and as you say, reversing their positions for the bigger scheme ahead. Just could never really put 100% faith in PA somehow. Probably because I really did not understand what the real deal behind the PA was. The SFP is really putting the pieces of...
Breakouts can still be pretty textbook style.

Remember most of the breakout traders who get burned by fake outs are the ones looking to get early on in the bandwagon. An initial entry triggered due to fear of missing the move or the greed/excitement of catching a slingshot at the source.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #362
  • Jul 21, 2013 9:24am Jul 21, 2013 9:24am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Breakouts can still be pretty textbook style.
Yes I agree, we see BO's working all the time. It's just how best we see the patterns..... isn't there a T-shirt yet "Contrarians bend your trend"

Fuck it's hot.....
  • #363
  • Jul 21, 2013 11:19am Jul 21, 2013 11:19am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Breakouts can still be pretty textbook style. Remember most of the breakout traders who get burned by fake outs are the ones looking to get early on in the bandwagon. An initial entry triggered due to fear of missing the move or the greed/excitement of catching a slingshot at the source. g.
I totally understand the mechanics or rather the mentality behind the breakout traders positions and this complicates matters even further as, people like Mike and J16 will take breakout trades. Yet, my thoughts on the breakout trades they take are not for the same reasoning that the majority of people take breakouts for.

I realize that the answer to this question is probably rather complicated but, if I could , I would like to ask Ghous as to the reasons he, prefers the SFP to the traditional PA methodology of trading.
Of course, I have my own opinion on this but, would like to hear Ghous'es personal opinion on this matter, if I may be so bold.

I think it could help a lot of people, including me.
  • #364
  • Jul 21, 2013 3:28pm Jul 21, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} I totally understand the mechanics or rather the mentality behind the breakout traders positions and this complicates matters even further as, people like Mike and J16 will take breakout trades. Yet, my thoughts on the breakout trades they take are not for the same reasoning that the majority of people take breakouts for. I realize that the answer to this question is probably rather complicated but, if I could , I would like to ask Ghous as to the reasons he, prefers the SFP to the traditional PA methodology of trading. Of course, I have...
I take that by saying "traditional PA methodology" you are referring to the James16 basic strategy of trading PA bars.

Well, trading fake outs makes me feel I am in more direct connection with order flow trading. Not that that's important but just this association and developing this liking for order flow stuff has got me closer to to trading the fake outs more than anything else.

There are some additional perks attached too such as better R:R and getting entries closer to the source (which comes close to the aggressive J16 strategy of playing PA bar retraces) but I hate to get into this traditional vs advanced methodology debate. I hate to sound like this fake out stuff is in some way better than the J16 basic material, or for that matter worse.

Its pointless because with trading the only thing that matters is your comfort zone. Its natural to want to feel your trading methodology / edge is superior to others' claims but the real truth is that because it works for you doesn't mean it has to work for every one.

Mike (mbqb11 from the j16 thread) has been in love with the very basics of the J16 material since...well...always and while he has added a few advanced systems to it, he primarily still trades those big outstanding pin bars and outside bars at sweet locations. Something newbies do for a couple of weeks before they get bored and get a move on. Does that mean Mike's using a bad strategy? Do you think an answer to this question, whatever it is, would make him flinch or make him give a damn? I don't think so.

There is no one size fits all here. We all explore our inner selves and eventually, over time settle with what we are comfortable with and "personally" believe is a true edge which we obviously then test and test again to make sure its not an illusion and truly exists. Whether you trade break outs or fake outs, traditional PA bars or unorthodox fake out bars, it really doesn't matter as long as it is what you are comfortable with and the edge is verified and tested.

The traditional J16 stuff is great for beginners and experts alike and should you choose to expand and diversify your knowledge / system as you go along, it provides for a great platform and a launch pad to begin researching in the various aspects of market dynamics. Fundamentals, order flow, you name it.

I trade fake outs today and I love them, but I will still give a good 90% credit to the James16 material and the knowledge acquired at the group for where I am today. Had it not been for that strong foundation those order flow threads, and the ability to connect the dots wouldn't have existed. I wouldn't have been here trading fake outs.

I don't like to compare the basics with the advanced as these are not two methods at the same level that you can compare. For me, one followed to and got linked with the other and its futile for me to weigh them against each other.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #365
  • Jul 21, 2013 4:07pm Jul 21, 2013 4:07pm
Hey Guys

GBPNOK
Isnt it a 3 touch breakout + retest? (However not a rounded retest) - if some of you did trade, would you tell me how?
Cheers,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #366
  • Jul 21, 2013 6:01pm Jul 21, 2013 6:01pm
Greetings to all, especially Pinbar for his initiative to open this thread, to Ghous, thanks for the time you spend explaining their knowledge of this style of trading that deserves attention for its solid foundation to continue learning from you.
I have look at this pair gbpusd WHCR three previous touches, I hope their opinions. excuse my English, because my native language is Spanish (Colombia) Thanks. Annex file
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  • #367
  • Edited Jul 22, 2013 12:29am Jul 21, 2013 10:35pm | Edited Jul 22, 2013 12:29am
Quoting cesar8
Greetings to all, especially Pinbar for his initiative to open this thread, to Ghous, thanks for the time you spend explaining their knowledge of this style of trading that deserves attention for its solid foundation to continue learning from you. I have look at this pair gbpusd WHCR three previous touches, I hope their opinions. excuse my English, because my native language is Spanish (Colombia) Thanks. Annex file {image}
Welcome Cesar

Note you are marking the lows of the bars with the zig zag indicator, not the Close.

those levels LCS from May 2012 do not seem to be respected by price so much in the recent movement of price.
I would certainly look at those levels as a PPZ but for the purpose of SFP, I would choose the current range of price HCR & LCS.
And, I would pay greater attention to the upper one as, the lower one has already had an SFP.

Check out the diagram showing the HCR LCS & HHR LLS
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  • #368
  • Jul 21, 2013 10:48pm Jul 21, 2013 10:48pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} I take that by saying "traditional PA methodology" you are referring to the James16 basic strategy of trading PA bars. Well, trading fake outs makes me feel I am in more direct connection with order flow trading. Not that that's important but just this association and developing this liking for order flow stuff has got me closer to to trading the fake outs more than anything else. There are some additional perks attached too such as better R:R and getting entries closer to the source (which comes close to the aggressive J16 strategy of...

Thanks for the input Ghous.
Indeed it is as you say, a comfort zone and basically a belief system that we have faith in, in the sense that, we can place the trade with a reasonable amount of conviction that it will reach our FTA and possible beyond.
As you say, it is futile to compare systems in terms of one being better than another and I am in total agreement that the PA taught in the J16 thread is the basis of the order flow. Yet, it was always hard for me to believe in the bars being the order flow, it seemed somehow incomprehensible, verging on mystical, when I first started learning PA.
The HCR -LCS and the SFP seem much easier to get a handle on, in terms of the order flow that is occurring around these levels.

Thanks again Ghous.
  • #369
  • Jul 22, 2013 3:11am Jul 22, 2013 3:11am
Quoting LamerTrader
Hey Guys GBPNOK Isnt it a 3 touch breakout + retest? (However not a rounded retest) - if some of you did trade, would you tell me how? Cheers, Stephen
Can you post a chart please Stephen, it helps avoid a lot of confusion.
  • #370
  • Jul 22, 2013 11:16am Jul 22, 2013 11:16am
Some people just can't call it a day until they have jerked themselves in and out of several trades that day.

There is a charm I feel that stands a class apart when it comes to waiting for a couple of these setups a month.

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Either choose to take all the iffy setups in between these and hope the markets are generous, or choose to always be in control every minute that you are in the market.

The market isn't your pet. Its not a loyal dog. Its not there at your service. Truth be told, these setups are extremely rare. Trading the markets may be a skill. A mechanical one too maybe. Making sure you can avoid the clutter and be able to choose the ripest of cherries is where trading inherits its artistic characteristics from.

I have always admired trading because at the very core of it, mastering it is a function of constantly striving to conquer your inner demons/emotions and become the strongest version of yourself. Success at trading is actually a manifestation of your success in life.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #371
  • Jul 22, 2013 8:20pm Jul 22, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting ghous
Some people just can't call it a day until they have jerked themselves in and out of several trades that day. There is a charm I feel that stands a class apart when it comes to waiting for a couple of these setups a month. {image} Either choose to take all the iffy setups in between these and hope the markets are generous, or choose to always be in control every minute that you are in the market. The market isn't your pet. Its not a loyal dog. Its not there at your service. Truth be told, these setups are extremely rare. Trading the markets may...

Indeed it appears to have the icing on the cake.

Would you call this one an A+ setup?
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  • #372
  • Jul 22, 2013 8:21pm Jul 22, 2013 8:21pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Welcome Cesar Note you are marking the lows of the bars with the zig zag indicator, not the Close. those levels LCS from May 2012 do not seem to be respected by price so much in the recent movement of price. I would certainly look at those levels as a PPZ but for the purpose of SFP, I would choose the current range of price HCR & LCS. And, I would pay greater attention to the upper one as, the lower one has already had an SFP. Check out the diagram showing the HCR LCS & HHR LLS {image} {image}

That is a brilliant digram pin. That jumps out at me is the SFP candle closed below the HCR you marked. To me that is a perfect example of using the HCR and SFP concept as confluence. The SFP candle in that diagram is a bearish signal, and the inability to close above the HCR is added confluence....high probability setup you have drawn up there.
  • #373
  • Edited 8:41pm Jul 22, 2013 8:31pm | Edited 8:41pm
Quoting Donkey
{quote} That is a brilliant digram pin. That jumps out at me is the SFP candle closed below the HCR you marked. To me that is a perfect example of using the HCR and SFP concept as confluence. The SFP candle in that diagram is a bearish signal, and the inability to close above the HCR is added confluence....high probability setup you have drawn up there.
Thanks D

Too bad we can't draw these setups on live charts. LOL
Yeah, the Confirmation of the level is always nice to see just before the close of the bar.

Yes, this is how I am trying to fit this story together.

I knew we were on the same page.

Maybe we will see the same phenomena on the EUR/PLN at that M-HCR.
  • #374
  • Edited 10:27pm Jul 22, 2013 10:08pm | Edited 10:27pm
Story on EURUSD...watching not trading....goes back to earlier post about missing entries when the close is above the highs of HCR bar. I will follow this chart with notes on how I consider trading these setups. This goes along with pins diagram as well.

EDIT: f'd up original attachment. Basically today we had a PBTCA a daily HCR level and the highs of the HCR candles. The PBTCA candle was also a SFP candle. I'm biased long on this scenario. I think everything shows up on the attached explaining howa few ways to play today's setup.
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  • #375
  • Jul 22, 2013 10:25pm Jul 22, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Welcome Cesar Note you are marking the lows of the bars with the zig zag indicator, not the Close. those levels LCS from May 2012 do not seem to be respected by price so much in the recent movement of price. I would certainly look at those levels as a PPZ but for the purpose of SFP, I would choose the current range of price HCR & LCS. And, I would pay greater attention to the upper one as, the lower one has already had an SFP. Check out the diagram showing the HCR LCS & HHR LLS {image} {image}
Thank pin bar for your clarification, I've corrected my LCS / HCR this gives me less entries to the market, but surely, more percentage of success.
Could you tell me where I can download the live market hours.
  • #376
  • Jul 22, 2013 11:17pm Jul 22, 2013 11:17pm
It is in the forum, search for p4 clock.
I would post it but as you can see from the charts, it has stopped working. All the times are wrong.
Also, I am outside and using my android tablet right now.
  • #377
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:46am Jul 23, 2013 3:46am
Ghous & Donkey

What is your opinion of the possibility of seeing an SFP on EJ at this level?

I think, if we do see one at the 1.3400 it may give us a run to 1.3280
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  • #378
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:52am Jul 23, 2013 3:52am
Quoting Donkey
Story on EURUSD...watching not trading....goes back to earlier post about missing entries when the close is above the highs of HCR bar. I will follow this chart with notes on how I consider trading these setups. This goes along with pins diagram as well. EDIT: f'd up original attachment. Basically today we had a PBTCA a daily HCR level and the highs of the HCR candles. The PBTCA candle was also a SFP candle. I'm biased long on this scenario. I think everything shows up on the attached explaining howa few ways to play today's setup. {image}
I kind of like this Dual level as, it seems to have been confirmed.
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  • #379
  • Jul 23, 2013 6:30am Jul 23, 2013 6:30am
Some interesting thought I recently came across regarding Moving averages.

So many people use system that tell them only to buy when price is above your MA and sell when price is below your MA. It's also used as a confirmation within other systems.

But what does your MA tell you?
The value of an MA, that is shown on your chart, tells you the exact value of your average price of previous trading history.

So buying abvove an MA means that you will only buy if prices are above average. Huh!? Yes, pretty stupid. It's like tracking the price of your most favorite car and then when finally prices seem to be very high you are going to the dealer to pay a huge price.

Again, it's very obvious that 95% of all traders fail because they don't think about what the charts are presenting them. What is common knowledge and presented in trading books wont make you a profitable trader. Everyone knows these books and the "rules". But everyone fails using that common knowledge!
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #380
  • Jul 23, 2013 7:01am Jul 23, 2013 7:01am
Quoting Pinbar
Ghous & Donkey What is your opinion of the possibility of seeing an SFP on EJ at this level? I think, if we do see one at the 1.3400 it may give us a run to 1.3280 {image}
I think that is a reasonable scenario. I am keenly watching the HCR and associated high I have marked as this is an important area. If we have SFP in that area I would certainly think a run down to 132.8 is likely depending on if any space or traffic is created in the forming of the sfp.

Couple of other formations I will be watching for will be another HCR in confluence with the current one or an SFP with a close below the current HCR (like your diagram). Either of these would show strength to the level.

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