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Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

  • #61
  • Jul 20, 2013 1:49pm Jul 20, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting PipMeUp
Buy and Hold is the most used method in the world. Almost every grand-child has a saving account. This is investment not trading. There need no academic research of any kind to buy and hold. Just a quite big starting capital to have early in your life(1); which not everybody has. Also very few people talk about Daren Bufflet --a totally unknown guy who perhaps never existed-- and who purchased the wrong asset 30 years ago, lost all of his money and the money he borrowed(2) and never met a journalist in his life to tell his non-success story. There...
if every academia thinks like you this is the main reason why are were we are. ignoring empirical evidence and the escape goat is always the randomness. like in medicine the placebo. both rationalistic idiots .we are very smart people but you see if we cannot explain something that doesn't make us stupid... it's randomness ....it's the placebo you see?. if someone cured himself of cancer it's a placebo if someone made billions it's random. only the medical researchers are far worse than idiots with mathematic and economic background because they actually kill people with their stupidity. come to think of it again economists that get the nobel prise placing a derivative on people's feelings with zero connection to the real world are also killers but depends on the severity of the crash. how many people starved to death and how many people killed themselves that will be their victims.
nothing happens in this world by chance. nothing. it's just a process that we don't know enough yet.
  • #62
  • Edited 6:26am Jul 21, 2013 6:25am | Edited 6:26am
Writing that medical people are idiotic assassins is the most stupid, arrogant, unacceptable thing I could read so far. You clearly don't understand half of what you write. I hope you're in your teens. This may explain...

Scentific approach of empirical evidence is to reproduce them to validate them. Placebo has been studied and validated. Buffet's success has never been reproduced in decades.

Your discourse is the same as gamblers'. You put the most emphasis on the least probable event.

Quoting deltatrade
nothing happens in this world by chance. nothing. it's just a process that we don't know enough yet.
You are confusing unknow with random. Laplace's demon has a empirical evidences against it.

The fact his father was a brokerage manager has perhaps a little to do, no?
The fact he started his career paid (the equivalent as of today) $8500/mo perhaps helped...
The fact he started in the 50's at a time where the term unemployment wasn't in the dictionary yet perhaps helped...

Have you ever though that out of the thousands of "processes that we don't know enough yet" which made Buffet what he is today, his method is certainly one the least important factors in his success? (But the most discussed by the newspapers of course...)
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #63
  • Jul 21, 2013 9:40am Jul 21, 2013 9:40am
Quoting PipMeUp
Writing that medical people are idiotic assassins
oh yes they are.
  • #64
  • Jul 21, 2013 8:06pm Jul 21, 2013 8:06pm
Quoting deltatrade
@infinitus. it never stops to amaze how nobody in the academic world didn't do a backtest with value investing based on the books that cover the warren buffet method. could you please explain to me why people don't look at successful methods and explain/onfirm them and would rather use something else that doesn't work?

a) ignorance
b) complacency
c) laziness

Choose one.....


Yes, many methods in trading have never been validated, or validated with satisfying amount of data


Take for example Pivot-trading - do an extensive search on the Web to find some studies. It is hard to find some really good stuff about it.

I tried it once and came to the following conclusion:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post5722482
  • #65
  • Jul 21, 2013 8:07pm Jul 21, 2013 8:07pm
Quoting dkrock
Hi. I like your thread. Though I do not use the same terminology, I believe I practice some of the same traits. Rather than calling it a mean, I call it equilibrium. I have not read the boundless articles and references you posted, so if this point is covered somewhere, then I apologize in advance. In my practical application of equilibrium trading, I split deviation 1 and call it the apex. While it is rarely the actual top or bottom of a move, it is the right entry/exit for consistent profit.

I do call it oftentimes equilibrium, too.
  • #66
  • Jul 21, 2013 8:16pm Jul 21, 2013 8:16pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} a) ignorance b) complacency c) laziness Choose one..... Yes, many methods in trading have never been validated, or validated with satisfying amount of data Take for example Pivot-trading - do an extensive search on the Web to find some studies. It is hard to find some really good stuff about it. I tried it once and came to the following conclusion: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post5722482


Well, take also into consideration, that such studies may exist, but are not made public........
  • #67
  • Jul 21, 2013 8:24pm Jul 21, 2013 8:24pm
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} if every academia thinks like you this is the main reason why are were we are. ignoring empirical evidence and the escape goat is always the randomness. like in medicine the placebo. both rationalistic idiots .we are very smart people but you see if we cannot explain something that doesn't make us stupid... it's randomness ....it's the placebo you see?. if someone cured himself of cancer it's a placebo if someone made billions it's random. only the medical researchers are far worse than idiots with mathematic and economic background because...

Are you a fan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb?
  • #68
  • Jul 21, 2013 8:26pm Jul 21, 2013 8:26pm
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} if every academia thinks like you this is the main reason why are were we are. ignoring empirical evidence and the escape goat is always the randomness. like in medicine the placebo. both rationalistic idiots .we are very smart people but you see if we cannot explain something that doesn't make us stupid... it's randomness ....it's the placebo you see?. if someone cured himself of cancer it's a placebo if someone made billions it's random. only the medical researchers are far worse than idiots with mathematic and economic background because...

read about "confoundings"
  • #69
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:55pm Jul 23, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} read about "confoundings"
i'm not a fan of taleb . i believe that everything has a reson for existing even if we don't know the answer yet. i think i found the solution to the markets. the trading system has to be universal. if it's not universal it will not last long. price action is an example of a universal principle but for the most part on forums it is gut instinct aproach rather then a mechanical and scientifical one. so the basic ideea is that you have a system that works on all timeframes, on all instruments and works since the beggining of the stock market because that's the oldest. the turtles trading was not an universal and that's why it failed in the long run.
  • #70
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:37pm Jul 23, 2013 3:37pm
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} i'm not a fan of taleb . i believe that everything has a reson for existing even if we don't know the answer yet. i think i found the solution to the markets. the trading system has to be universal. if it's not universal it will not last long. price action is an example of a universal principle but for the most part on forums it is gut instinct aproach rather then a mechanical and scientifical one. so the basic ideea is that you have a system that works on all timeframes, on all instruments and works since the beggining of the stock market...

Do you like to describe your trading system, or is it proprietary? If so, I fully understand that.....
  • #71
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:54pm Jul 23, 2013 3:54pm
i have discovered new trading systems in technical analysis. one that uses only indicators one that uses candlesticks one that uses trendlines one that uses moving averages one that uses support resistance . they are all universals and original and non discretionary even though simple in concept. high winrate . at the moment i have some health issues but in the future i will have my trade explorer updated with a live account.
  • #72
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:23pm Jul 23, 2013 4:23pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting infinitus
{quote} a) ignorance b) complacency c) laziness Choose one..... Yes, many methods in trading have never been validated, or validated with satisfying amount of data Take for example Pivot-trading - do an extensive search on the Web to find some studies. It is hard to find some really good stuff about it. I tried it once and came to the following conclusion: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post5722482
To be honest one of the core fundamental principles...... regarding market speculation anyways.... is the fact that it's a numbers game. Always has & always will be. There literally 1000's of methods & systems of approach. 99% of them are crap. But the other handful of time tested traditional & proven methods can provide a winning edge....Now....That's only half what you really need.

The other 1/2 is understanding when & where to apply your method... Any system out there worth it's salt will have quantitative data available. It's then a matter of position sizing, money management & risk/reward ratios. Even a system as poor as 3 or 4 out of 10 can pad the old trading account.

Just my 2 cents on the subject....
  • #73
  • Jul 23, 2013 5:19pm Jul 23, 2013 5:19pm
infinuts

Great material ,thank you
  • #74
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:57pm Jul 23, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting deltatrade
i have discovered new trading systems in technical analysis. one that uses only indicators one that uses candlesticks one that uses trendlines one that uses moving averages one that uses support resistance . they are all universals and original and non discretionary even though simple in concept. high winrate . at the moment i have some health issues but in the future i will have my trade explorer updated with a live account.

Get well soon.....
  • #75
  • Jul 23, 2013 9:00pm Jul 23, 2013 9:00pm
Quoting eggs
{quote} To be honest one of the core fundamental principles...... regarding market speculation anyways.... is the fact that it's a numbers game. Always has & always will be. There literally 1000's of methods & systems of approach. 99% of them are crap. But the other handful of time tested traditional & proven methods can provide a winning edge....Now....That's only half what you really need. The other 1/2 is understanding when & where to apply your method... Any system out there worth it's salt will have quantitative data available. It's then a...


Agree - I do think, that you can make work any system. It all comes down to follow your rules and a proper money management.

But it may be worth the time and effort to find the better eggs
  • #76
  • Jul 23, 2013 9:18pm Jul 23, 2013 9:18pm
something about HFT

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ng-algo-action
  • #77
  • Aug 1, 2013 3:41pm Aug 1, 2013 3:41pm
Analysis about the Forex Trading Volume

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf r_qt1203f.pdf   126 KB | 1,351 downloads
  • #78
  • Aug 14, 2013 12:21pm Aug 14, 2013 12:21pm
Think this will be interested to many readers of this thread. Sorry no trading strategy described in this but interesting nonetheless

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=1773169
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #79
  • Aug 24, 2013 12:29am Aug 24, 2013 12:29am
Hi infinitus
Excellent thread and most important concepts I think only very few are aware of the mathematical world myself I am always interested in maths and quantitative techniques first of all I would like to tell that markets are not completely random nor completely efficient they are more or less same and different.Market is not perfect to be described by using a single concept or theory it is complexive fractal and hard to break the code,Technical concepts like EW etc gives some insight into price and fractal theory but without applied mathematics and logic they are useless
  • #80
  • Aug 24, 2013 1:57am Aug 24, 2013 1:57am
Quoting stt
Think this will be interested to many readers of this thread. Sorry no trading strategy described in this but interesting nonetheless http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=1773169
Very interesting paper! Thanks & excellent thread infinitus!
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