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  • #1,101
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:34pm Jul 19, 2013 1:34pm
bought some VXX w $17.50 calls for next week expiry @ $0.13, shoulda waited to near close, they'll prolly drop some more...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,102
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:19pm Jul 19, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting Starry
{quote} calls are also very cheap .... if you dont mind sharing, how do you determine what price to buy at (if its below or above)?
look for areas where it has struggled in the past to fall or climb, on this occassion i was wrong but i knew it was risky as explained in the post, Gold an Silver were trading in opposite ways short term meaning i should of stayed out
  • #1,103
  • Jul 19, 2013 5:23pm Jul 19, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting The Fool
bought some VXX w $17.50 calls for next week expiry @ $0.13, shoulda waited to near close, they'll prolly drop some more...
yup, closed at $0.11, crap shoot anyway, I don't know why I persist in being contrarian, maybe it's a disease ....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,104
  • Edited 1:01am Jul 20, 2013 12:50am | Edited 1:01am
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/07/...o-weekend.html

Marc doesn't say if he still thinks e/u is headed for $1.20 by the end of the year. chuckle. not that I care...glad I don't trade fx anymore....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,105
  • Jul 20, 2013 1:13pm Jul 20, 2013 1:13pm
better...

http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/07/...hnical_20.html

"The US dollar generally consolidated, with a modest downside bias, over the past week. The risk is for more of the same in the week ahead. A relative light economic and political calendar during the summer in North America and Europe will make for thinner participation. At the same time, Bernanke has driven home the conditional nature of the Fed's willingness to scale back on its purchases of long-term assets."

"Given that the short-term speculative market is long dollars, there is some risk that the lower volatility phase coincides with a softer US dollar. If part of the dollar's Q2 gains were fueled by expectations of Fed 's tapering, then the less intensive convictions of it would be consistent with a softer bias in the dollar."



...heavyweight's earnings are mostly in, thin summertime markets, weaker USD, boosts commodities and equities, ... be ready to Pay The Limit, though....next phase Abenomics - Buy e/y.

Seems easy til it's not, which will be sooner than we think. Taper fears will return, omg Jackson Hole, another US debt ceiling broohaha coming in Sept, etc, etc... we have not had the market correction that is overdue and October is looking good for tricks & treats. Me stockin up on dry powder....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,106
  • Jul 20, 2013 7:45pm Jul 20, 2013 7:45pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/come-e...014919320.html

actually more earnings coming this week, anybody have any ideas for some options trades based on earnings expectations?

Monday

Earnings: McDonald's (MCD), Gannett, Halliburton, Hasbro, Netflix (NFLX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Canadian National Railway

Tuesday

Earnings: Apple (AAPL), AT&T (NYSE:T), Norfolk Southern, Dupont, Altria, Travelers, UPS (UPS), CIT Group, Illinois Tool Works, Lockheed Martin, Peabody Energy, Valero, Panera Bread, AK Steel, Wendy's (WEN), Domino's (ASXMP-AU), Nabors Industries, Discover Financial, Broadcom, Altera

Wednesday

Earnings: Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Eli Lilly, Ford (NYSE:F), Facebook (FB), Qualcomm, GlaxoSmithkline, Pepsico, General Dynamics, Nasdaq OMX, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Northrop Grumman, Cheesecake Factory, Baidu, Visa, Akamai, F5 Networks, Ethan Allen, Trip Advisor, Citrix Systems, Cabot Oil and Gas

Thursday

Earnings: General Motors (GM), Amazon.com (AMZN), Starbucks (SBUX), Diamond Offshore, Bristol-Myers, 3M (MMM), Biogen Idec, Boston Scientific, Colgate-Palmolive, TransCanada, Credit Suisse, Dow Chemical, International Paper, Hershey, Expedia, Newmont Mining, Cliffs Natural Resources, Pulte Group, Sirius XS Radio, Under Armour, Zynga (ZNGA), Tempur Sealy, Potash

Friday

Earnings: Total, Newell Rubbermaid, Stanley Black and Decker, Tyco, Weyerhaeuser (WY)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,107
  • Jul 20, 2013 8:06pm Jul 20, 2013 8:06pm
Quoting The Fool
anybody have any ideas for some options trades based on earnings expectations?
Boeing, maybe...

...the good thing about this weeks earnings on some of the stocks w/o weeklies is you could trade before/after earnings and have plenty time to pan out...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,108
  • Jul 20, 2013 8:29pm Jul 20, 2013 8:29pm
CAT, the expectations are probably low, maybe fade that with cheap calls

HPQ, earnings out Sunday, if result is a spike in the stock price Monday fade it with Aug 17 puts

GM, also might be a miss, Aug puts could pay
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,109
  • Jul 20, 2013 8:51pm Jul 20, 2013 8:51pm
Quoting The Fool
HPQ, earnings out Sunday, if result is a spike in the stock price Monday fade it with Aug 17 puts
ditto TXN, hell I see shorts everywhere I look in tech...except AMZN, I am singlehandedly keeping them afloat

I'd lean long on WY though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,110
  • Jul 20, 2013 9:13pm Jul 20, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ditto TXN, hell I see shorts everywhere I look in tech.......
speaking of tech, near the top of Friday's top options volume was Dell Aug $14 calls for $0.07...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,111
  • Jul 21, 2013 12:43am Jul 21, 2013 12:43am
wtf? chart of the day...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,112
  • Jul 21, 2013 6:25am Jul 21, 2013 6:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} speaking of tech, near the top of Friday's top options volume was Dell Aug $14 calls for $0.07...
Google had its earning out on last thursday, revenues were up as is there net income only slightly from 2012 Q2.
going forward it will be tougher as there acuquistion of motorola is losing money add to the fact how high will the markets climb before a pull back or a correction, i will be looking to take puts out short term and longer term on this stock, to me GOOGLE looks vunerable as did APPLE october last year
  • #1,113
  • Jul 21, 2013 11:04am Jul 21, 2013 11:04am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} to me GOOGLE looks vunerable as did APPLE october last year
lots of bubbles to be broken. GOOG $760 to $900+ in just 3-months, the retrace could be shorter. The options are too spendy, though, with $0.50 bid/ask spread, and the stock is too high to sell puts on a spread, need too much margin...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,114
  • Jul 21, 2013 11:34am Jul 21, 2013 11:34am
Abenomics in full effect to hurt Germany's exporters? Short the Germany etf EWG?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-...110035792.html

...hmm, EWG pos correlated to eur strength? seems weak euro would boost German exports no?

EWG has tradable options, trading near 52-week high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,115
  • Jul 22, 2013 1:52pm Jul 22, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting The Fool
bought some VXX w $17.50 calls for next week expiry @ $0.13, shoulda waited to near close, they'll prolly drop some more...
No market downside in sight, a really bad day now in the S&P is just break-even....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,116
  • Jul 22, 2013 7:51pm Jul 22, 2013 7:51pm
Anybody want to play Dell puts on the LBO volatility? Aug 12/14 strangle for $0.38? Or just go for broke on Aug $10 puts for $0.08?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,117
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:51pm Jul 23, 2013 8:51pm
just technical with low IV trade set up, both Goldman sachs and Citi are up against some strong resistance at there current levels so i'm taking a $51 put on Citigroup as its the cheaper of the two with more leverage should it work out.

At tomorrows opening i hope to get that option for 2c, it closed for 3c today

C Jul 2013 51.000 put (C130726P00051000)
-OPR
0.03 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.02(40.00%) 3:57PM EDT
  • #1,118
  • Jul 24, 2013 12:31pm Jul 24, 2013 12:31pm
eyes on Treasurys. Weak 5-yr auction today, 7-yr tomorrow. 10yr note @ 2.61 today, up 10bps. Stocks not liking it. Could we possibly put together 2 omg even 3 down days in US equities? Heavy POMO day tomorrow, $4.24-$5.25 bio. I wouldn't bet on it. For a weekly I might look to fade VXX if it carries higher tomorrow morning.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,119
  • Edited 3:49pm Jul 24, 2013 2:52pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting The Fool
Anybody want to play Dell puts on the LBO volatility? Aug 12/14 strangle for $0.38? Or just go for broke on Aug $10 puts for $0.08?
So D-Day has been pushed into early Aug. There is talk of $13.75 buy-out, or even $14.

Bought Aug $14 calls at $0.03.... if the deal goes thru and stock bids up to near the buy-out price, Aug 17 $14 puts should go to >$0.07. If not, I'm out some beer money.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mic...?siteid=yhoof2
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,120
  • Jul 24, 2013 6:55pm Jul 24, 2013 6:55pm
Quoting The Fool
Thursday Earnings: General Motors (GM), Amazon.com (AMZN), Starbucks (SBUX), Diamond Offshore, Bristol-Myers, 3M (MMM), Biogen Idec, Boston Scientific, Colgate-Palmolive, TransCanada, Credit Suisse, Dow Chemical, International Paper, Hershey, Expedia, Newmont Mining, Cliffs Natural Resources, Pulte Group, Sirius XS Radio, Under Armour, Zynga (ZNGA),...
Left to go this week. GM sitting right near the 52-week high. I like the Aug $33 or $34 puts.

SBUX: I like the green tea frappucinos, get a grande about once a week in the summer. But the options have $2.50 cuts, me no like....

POT has been beat down, the Aug $41 calls are just $0.30. I might watch to buy calls on a dip post earnings.

WY, too many mixed signals. WY has a trust structure to pay out a nice dividend - so it gets whacked when the int rates rise. But housing data has been strong. I'd expect WY share price to dip if rates keep rising, but I'd wait to short via puts after a post-earnings spike...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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