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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #1,821
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:26pm Jul 18, 2013 3:26pm
Moody's changes outlook on US Aaa sovereign rating to stable from negative; rating affirmed

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moody...ble--PR_277667
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,822
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:31pm Jul 18, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting milam
Hi, my first post, hope is relevant. This a 4h TF and in less than 1 hour the last bar will be completed. I see a possible false break of the bearish trend line, if the last bar will close above the mentioned trend line the better, indicating to me that the bulls could be trapped twice, my entry is only below that bar. {image}
My short entry was not triggered and price broke, I will monitor this for a break pullback or for a false break out that is still possible in my opinion. PA will give me more clues.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #1,823
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:57pm Jul 18, 2013 5:57pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Moody's changes outlook on US Aaa sovereign rating to stable from negative; rating affirmed http://www.moodys.com/research/Moody...ble--PR_277667
How will this effect the major pairs in your opinion?
Find your Favourite Pattern
  • #1,824
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:05pm Jul 18, 2013 9:05pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The US city of Detroit, Michigan just filed for bankruptcy after their budget deficit swelled to unmanageable levels. This marks the largest US city bankruptcy in history RIP Detroit..
The biggest toilet in the US filed for bankruptcy? Shocking.
  • #1,825
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:14pm Jul 18, 2013 9:14pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} The biggest toilet in the US filed for bankruptcy? Shocking.
Cleveland holds that title.
  • #1,826
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:19pm Jul 18, 2013 9:19pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Cleveland holds that title.
I don't doubt Cleveland is bad. But just look at the crime rates...St. Louis (eastern mostly), Detroit and Flint are in the top for violent crime. And Detroit's self-absorbed, fiscally ignorant city government pushed it to the point of the state taking over.
  • #1,827
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:27pm Jul 18, 2013 9:27pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I don't doubt Cleveland is bad. But just look at the crime rates...St. Louis (eastern mostly), Detroit and Flint are in the top for violent crime. And Detroit's self-absorbed, fiscally ignorant city government pushed it to the point of the state taking over.
All very valid points. It'll be interesting to see how the bankruptcy plays out, especially regarding the unfunded pensions.
  • #1,828
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:55pm Jul 18, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting kaka_ht
Gold H4 update and NZD H1: {image} {image}
Good morning everyone!
This is my NZDH1 Update:
Regarding Gold:
Gold is moving in a range for a several recent day!It's so boring for me!And I still wait a movement breaking the strong supply area that trigger my pending buy stop at 1315 area!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,829
  • Jul 18, 2013 10:54pm Jul 18, 2013 10:54pm
I see a potential flag pattern in AU H4!We need to wait for closed H4 candle to confirm it!In Addtion it's totally agree with EW count in H4!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audh47-19-2013 10-42-24 AM.png Size: 26 KB
  • #1,830
  • Jul 19, 2013 12:51am Jul 19, 2013 12:51am
Quoting godim
I'll be gone a few days. I can not write and we will not invent new setups. We'll have fun again on Tuesday. Maybe.

Enjoy godim - i'm going now finally to my own holiday.
  • #1,831
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:09am Jul 19, 2013 1:09am
Good morning friends,

well Schickeria got his 314x, and I got it too with suspecting "unfinished business", because of the virgin POC from Wednesday.


What's next?


Let us look at the MMSMP's:


the monthly is open to 3299 (mean)

the weekly has good chance to get to 3310 (+2SD)

the daily may try to fill the 3035 (POC) to 327 area (+1SD), since this area needs volume fill

on 4h we are at +1SD, with +2SD @ 3173. 3138 is POC, and may, i this case, hard to overcome

on 1h we have surprisingly the same picture as on 4h, but 1h profile reveals, that the 3141 to 3080 area is in need of volume fill



Well, based on this:

price should first move down in 310-3080 region. After that, price is open to make new highs.



From EW point of view:


hard to say, but I lean to the bearish side with "the top is in"

or will be in, when the 3153 - 3168 area is reached


A movement below 3120 will support this view
  • #1,832
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:10am Jul 19, 2013 1:10am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Enjoy godim - i'm going now finally to my own holiday.
Good morning Schickeria,


enjoy the time - erhol Dich gut :-)
  • #1,833
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:15am Jul 19, 2013 1:15am
Quoting kaka_ht
I see a potential flag pattern in AU H4!We need to wait for closed H4 candle to confirm it!In Addtion it's totally agree with EW count in H4! {image}

don't expect major moves on Friday.
Market moves on greed and fear and fear being stronger sentiment.Always remind yourself.If there is no solid reason for price to go up on down trend then skip it.
Newton's law applies.
Object in motion will continue to be in motion unless acted upon by a force
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,834
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:20am Jul 19, 2013 1:20am
Levels and chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,835
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:27am Jul 19, 2013 1:27am
Quoting Davit
{quote} don't expect major moves on Friday. Market moves on greed and fear and fear being stronger sentiment.Always remind yourself.If there is no solid reason for price to go up on down trend then skip it. Newton's law applies. Object in motion will continue to be in motion unless acted upon by a force

Good morning Davit

In Elliott Wave, we say, that price is driven by social mood - greed and fear. We say, that social mood does not need an external trigger to change. Well, it can change on an external trigger, but that is no necessity. External triggers in FF, where price most of the time strongly reacts, are rate decisions.
  • #1,836
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:32am Jul 19, 2013 1:32am
Quoting kaka_ht
I see a potential flag pattern in AU H4!We need to wait for closed H4 candle to confirm it!In Addtion it's totally agree with EW count in H4! {image}

Hi Kaka,

I see it as follows.

The low on your chart was the end of a B-wave of an ABC-flat. The low was followed by the C-wave impulse.

After the C-wave impulse was finished, price has build a small impulse down.

This may be the continuation of downtrend, or only the A-wave of an ABC down.


We will see who is right shortly
  • #1,837
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:39am Jul 19, 2013 1:39am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Good morning Davit In Elliott Wave, we say, that price is driven by social mood - greed and fear. We say, that social mood does not need an external trigger to change. Well, it can change on an external trigger, but that is no necessity. External triggers in FF, where price most of the time strongly reacts, are rate decisions.

Hi friend.Nice thread.I am bored playing chess online...

Price or "force" lately has been Bernanke talking,unemployment numbers and some bigger fundies.
I do believe that Elliot wave should be looked within context of fundies.
https://ga-core.s3.amazonaws.com/pro...ew_500x313.png
Red dots are fundamentals to me and the tip price result.
This is how I see the markets top down.The motion from top to down could be anything EW ,Gartley,Double Tops,Flags etc.It does not matter to me how it gets to bottom but what effect the market are the dots.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,838
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:58am Jul 19, 2013 1:58am
Good Morning to all!

My Daily prognose EUR USD:

We don't have important news today - but it's crazy friday - be care!


Wednesday's high at 1.3179 is back in focus (while above 1.31356 4h candle close), following Thursday's EUR strength. Support at 1.3066 on Thursday kept the consolidation phase between 1.2992 and 1.3208 active, and the July 11 peak at 1.3208 would become vulnerable on a break above 1.3179. Thursday's bull-hammer candle suggests downside risk is limited to 1.3066, and the latter is protected by 1.3079.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish/Neutral

Today's resistance

1.3164
1.3179/4
1.3208
1.3261

Today's support

1.3115
1.3079
1.3066

From Elliott Wave view:

Yesterdays Low @ 1.3066 could be a impulsive wave with 1-2 count

Bids at 1.3080, 1.3050 and in better size from 1.3020 to 1.30
Sell stops sub-1.3050 and in good size below the big figure

Offers at 1.3160 (corporate) and from leveraged money 1.3180-1.32
Sizeable buy stops above 1.32 through 1.3220
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USD (-).png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USD (1).png Size: 33 KB
  • #1,839
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:00am Jul 19, 2013 2:00am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi friend.Nice thread.I am bored playing chess online... Price or "force" lately has been Bernanke talking,unemployment numbers and some bigger fundies. I do believe that Elliot wave should be looked within context of fundies. {image} Red dots are fundamentals to me and the tip price result. This is how I see the markets top down.The motion from top to down could be anything EW ,Gartley,Double Tops,Flags etc.It does not matter to me how it gets to bottom but what effect the market are the dots.


Hi Davit,

let me explain the view in EW:


when we can agree, that Elliott waves exist (if we can not, the following is meaningless):



market builds the Elliott Waves (EW)

5 waves for impulses

3 wave corrections and so on

the pattern are fractal, or fractal like



so when we assume, that all news and fundamentals build this waves, as you proposed, all the thousand and million news/fundamentals per day, per week, per year, have to be somewhat "orchestrated", to achieve the price moving in Elliott waves.

That would be much too deterministic.

Only other way around makes sense - it is foremost the social mood, that lets people act, or interpret news as bad or good.

You can see that often, especially lately with economic data. We have right now extremely high bullishness, despite the whole very negative economic data.

But people only see the positive side. When good is good, and bad is good.......



But someday, all of a sudden, this will change........
  • #1,840
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:04am Jul 19, 2013 2:04am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Good morning Schickeria, enjoy the time - erhol Dich gut :-)
Thanx!

Bin ich froh diese Scheiße nicht mehr traden müssen- grrr :-( Seitwärts ohne Richtung.
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