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No skill in trading! 107 replies

"The JUICE" - how do you separate skill from luck? 14 replies

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Need luck or skill for trading?

  • #181
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:37am Jul 18, 2013 7:37am
Quoting Ttop
{quote} If you don't have billions of $ to play with and an army of PhDs and rocket scientists in your trading room on million $ bonuses to make profits , what kind of an edge can you really have?
One that produces a positive return over time. I don't see how PHDs and rocket scientists would help, nor do I see the size of an account as having any bearing on an edge.

Are you profitable?
Anything can happen.
  • #182
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:26am Jul 18, 2013 8:26am
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} Everything in life requires luck.
Life is entirely in your own hands. Luck has nothing to do with what your life is.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #183
  • Jul 18, 2013 10:57am Jul 18, 2013 10:57am
Hey SC.

Great post to get the mental juices loose.

Luck = Opportunity taken as a result of being prepared as it arises / Winning in a game of chance (depends on way of thinking @Papillon9)
Bad Luck = Opportunity not taken as a result of NOT being prepares as it arises / Losing in a game of chance

Skill = Applied knowledge and expertise to do something well.

Is the market based on chance?

Currently, every country sets itself price-bands, however loose/tight, for the value of its own currency Vs that of others. It is not somethng commonly spoken about, but we can know this is so by the moves national banks and governments take to keep their currency from moving in a direction against its wishes/benefit (US and China or US and Bahamas may ring some bells in this regard).

From the above, it is implied that those who treat the FX market as a game of chance, may regard their winnings and losses as a result of their luck. But, for those who treat the FX market as the resultant of macro- and micro- processes causing real-time changes in the value of a currency; they understand the need to aqcuire knowledge and expertise that allows for better interpretation of data and aids in their decision making ability to take long/short positions, i.e. - they apply skill in their decision making.

Applying this to TF's, I am in agreement with @h96 (with a caveat): There is certainly less movement (noise) in the market in the longer TF and this can make it easier, for some, to trade. However, all TF's are related and knowledge of how they are related, and in some cases synchronised, can assist traders place trades in shorter TF's with equal proficiency to those working mainly in longer TF's.

So in answer to your question, it is skill and taken opportunities.

Walk in peace with love as your guide for no stronger way will one ever find.

Pipsi
  • #184
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:13pm Jul 18, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting Ttop
Whether you need luck or skill to profit from forex depends on whether you are gambling or investing. If you are gambling you need luck to win but if you are investing then you need skill to win. What is gambling? Acting in uncertain conditions does not mean that one is gambling. Uncertainty pervades our lives. Will you still be here tomorrow? Here are a few differences between gambling and investing: 1. If the odds of winning are not in your favour, you are gambling 2. Are the results random? Gambling results are based on pure chance. Investing...
Ttop that is just based on "your" experience/reality, and doesnt mean everyone else will go through the same one. There a plenty of people that make money and no you dont need alot of money to make make more of it in forex or futures markets. Thats my experience anyway....
  • #185
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:49pm Jul 18, 2013 3:49pm
1.5 years worth of trading, almost 5k trades total.

Luck?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-07-18_21-42.jpg Size: 50 KB
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #186
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:30pm Jul 18, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Life is entirely in your own hands. Luck has nothing to do with what your life is.
You only wish it was true.
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #187
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:33pm Jul 18, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting vox dei
1.5 years worth of trading, almost 5k trades total. Luck? {image}
Anything which is unpredictable in outcome involves luck. Let it be good or bad luck. So yes, your results are a combination of your skills AND luck. I bet your next 1,5 years will look quite differently.
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #188
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:36pm Jul 18, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting sandycarrot
need luck or skill ? I've read somewhere in the internet forum, but forgot exactly where? who said :: 1 ) if trading using big timeframe ( monthly / weekly / daily ) = requires luck to win 2 ) If trading using small time frame ( m1 / m5 / m15 / m30 )= need skill to win but there are also those who say that : 3) If trading using small time frame ( m1 / m5 / m15 / m30 ) = requires luck to win 4) if trading using big timeframe ( monthly / weekly / daily ) = need skill to win which one is correct ? all comment are welcome THX. S.C.
So your question is whether the bigger or smaller time-frames are more predictable. It changes. Depends on the perception of the trading participants.
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #189
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:25pm Jul 18, 2013 6:25pm
Quoting Yuri57
{quote} Anything which is unpredictable in outcome involves luck. Let it be good or bad luck. So yes, your results are a combination of your skills AND luck. I bet your next 1,5 years will look quite differently.
These results are not mine. They belong to a friend I know for some 20 years. Should have mentioned. Anyway, believe or not, there's hardly any luck in these results. If anything they show bad luck.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #190
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:33pm Jul 18, 2013 7:33pm
What an interesting discussion it is.

Now, first of all, let's agree on one thing, 'making money / getting pips is not the same as being skillful or smart'. Everyone can have a good day and making some money. Ask any new traders, mostly have felt this experience : 'getting some pips and somehow that makes them felt that they understand the market movement'. Ask them what happened next? Most blew their account so bad. Well, that's the market, ladies and gentlemen.

For me what differs pro and the rest is the skill to manage their risk so that their profit can topple their loss, hence their trade is profitable. Winning is all about luck. We don't know where the market will make its moves. We can only make educated guesses. That's why, this business is more probability based / speculative than most business. Hence the need of above average skill to manage the risk so that we'llcome up as the winner in the end.

In brief, my conclusion is both luck and skill play important factor in trading. But since you can't actually work to increase your luck (at least, I don't know one. If you happened to know one, please tell me), just work on your skill. Both hard skill (ie. Trade opportunity spotting, trade planning, money management, etc.) And soft skill (mostly psychological stuffs).

Last, don't ask or questioning my trade result. I'm just proposing my opinion here, not asking your money to invest in me .
  • #191
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:25am Jul 19, 2013 8:25am
Quoting Yuri57
{quote} So your question is whether the bigger or smaller time-frames are more predictable. It changes. Depends on the perception of the trading participants.
There is NO way to predict future market moves, no matter what time frame you choose. If there was any such timeframe and prediction method then whoever discovered it would by now have all the money in the world.
  • #192
  • Jul 19, 2013 9:27am Jul 19, 2013 9:27am
I think you need volatility and something that filters the time.
  • #193
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:01am Jul 19, 2013 10:01am
Quoting utjuph
What an interesting discussion it is. Now, first of all, let's agree on one thing, 'making money / getting pips is not the same as being skillful or smart'. Everyone can have a good day and making some money. Ask any new traders, mostly have felt this experience : 'getting some pips and somehow that makes them felt that they understand the market movement'. Ask them what happened next? Most blew their account so bad. Well, that's the market, ladies and gentlemen. For me what differs pro and the rest is the skill to manage their risk so that their...
thats true, you could be the best trader in the world making insane gains still after 1000 trades but it only takes 1 massive fk up to undo ALL that progress. Think about that

the biggest risk a trader faces, is the trader them self. But in order to make a return you MUST first take a risk.
Time hides Nothing
  • #194
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:04am Jul 19, 2013 10:04am
Quoting Ttop
{quote} If you don't have billions of $ to play with and an army of PhDs and rocket scientists in your trading room on million $ bonuses to make profits , what kind of an edge can you really have?
One that exploits their behavior and weaknesses.
Time hides Nothing
  • #195
  • Jul 19, 2013 9:45pm Jul 19, 2013 9:45pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} thats true, you could be the best trader in the world making insane gains still after 1000 trades but it only takes 1 massive fk up to undo ALL that progress. Think about that the biggest risk a trader faces, is the trader them self. But in order to make a return you MUST first take a risk.
the biggest risk a trader faces, is the trader himself. But in order to make a return you MUST first take a risk.

I prefer that elaborated ,in detail
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #196
  • Jul 19, 2013 9:53pm Jul 19, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting utjuph
What an interesting discussion it is. Now, first of all, let's agree on one thing, 'making money / getting pips is not the same as being skillful or smart'. Everyone can have a good day and making some money. Ask any new traders, mostly have felt this experience : 'getting some pips and somehow that makes them felt that they understand the market movement'. Ask them what happened next? Most blew their account so bad. Well, that's the market, ladies and gentlemen. For me what differs pro and the rest is the skill to manage their risk so that their...

I agree on this ::

We don't know where the market will make its moves. We can only make educated guesses. That's why, this business is more probability based / speculative than most business. Hence the need of above average skill to manage the risk so that we'llcome up as the winner in the end.
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #197
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:33pm Jul 19, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting Ttop
{quote} There is NO way to predict future market moves, no matter what time frame you choose. If there was any such timeframe and prediction method then whoever discovered it would by now have all the money in the world.
I think our resident "Mofu" & his followers will disagree with you..

"this thing was textbook... we need to quite messing with some of this other crap,,, some of these we will know months/years ahead of time...."

http://kilombero-valleyfarms.org/images/Mofu_school.jpg
  • #198
  • Jul 19, 2013 11:03pm Jul 19, 2013 11:03pm
Quoting vox dei
1.5 years worth of trading, almost 5k trades total. Luck? {image}
No has nothing to do with luck. Yet to have that kind of return in one year of trading isn't impressive at all. Considering the fact he/she has made his/her stats private says a lot about the trader himself.
  • #199
  • Jul 19, 2013 11:10pm Jul 19, 2013 11:10pm
Quoting Master_kiwa
{quote} No has nothing to do with luck. Yet to have that kind of return in one year of trading isn't impressive at all. Considering the fact he/she has made his/her stats private says a lot about the trader himself.
As a scalper. I only focus on my "Pip-Drawdown".
yes,yes,yes
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #200
  • Jul 19, 2013 11:38pm Jul 19, 2013 11:38pm
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} I think our resident "Mofu" & his followers will disagree with you.. "this thing was textbook... we need to quite messing with some of this other crap,,, some of these we will know months/years ahead of time...." {image}
btw
where Mofu school ?
Africa ?
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
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