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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #1,741
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:24am Jul 18, 2013 3:24am
ok mate, thanks
catch you later
  • #1,742
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:31am Jul 18, 2013 3:31am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Good morning PT, here are currency strength data - unfortunately in my calculation CHF played no role. {image}
No need to do analysis on CHF because it is very stable and that is why USDCHF is a perfect pair to gauge USD sentiment.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,743
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:35am Jul 18, 2013 3:35am
I was contemplating to write. Of cause and effect. How the Bulls have only half an hour to drive a price over 5201. And... this happened in seconds.

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The price should open above this level. Remains 25 minutes.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,744
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:03am Jul 18, 2013 4:03am
Unfortunately for me 1 pip below.

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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,745
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:11am Jul 18, 2013 4:11am
Quoting godim
Unfortunately for me 1 pip below. {image}
The scenario was simple. The cable is growing rapidly. The euro once him. While eur/gbp fall.
Now? Something must change.
For example, the cable will go over 5201. But whether this will provide "sufficient" support. Then? The cable stays for support in 5229, the euro is growing. While eur/gbp goes into UpSwing? Any such thoughts
And all this just for a pip, Markus!
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,746
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:36am Jul 18, 2013 4:36am
Yes. EUR is relatively highly correlated to CHF.



bout cable:


1st. Daily graph

Weekly index.


Based on the weekly we can see a movement into GBP weakness. Board weakness. Im trying to sell GBP as high as I can. Its 5270 to 5480, even 5650 and Ill still be a bear on Weekly. Both Indexes crossed on weekly which is relatively a nice direction play.



Daily index: The problem is that lower TFs are bullish. As seen on Daily, td it moved into a buying GBP motion. For me to play a weekly scenario is just what I want. I want strong GBP to sell into. Another problem is that USD moved into selling motion on daily. Which gives me another signal that we havent topped on GBPUSD just yet. So it seems..

Weekly scenario is atm still hard to play but worth a try.




2nd. 4H graph

On 4h index we can see that USD index came into a selling zone. Lots of movement around on eu, au, uj. So they are trying to find med term direction. The news this week changed the view a bit. USD weakness became real and we are still seeing some pressure. We just need a catalyst to see the real direction it seems.
GBP spike strenght. I still dont believe it. But needs to be carefull. It could become a serious rally into 5650 if they show legz... But as said, weekly should prevail in some sense. Selling ralliez.



30m just came into buying territorry and cable should test HH.


*All indexes are reversed. When greens are over reds-means longz are in place. And reversed.
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  • #1,747
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:47am Jul 18, 2013 4:47am
Quoting 21vs7
Yes. EUR is relatively highly correlated to CHF. bout cable: 1st. Daily graph Weekly index. Based on the weekly we can see a movement into GBP weakness. Board weakness. Im trying to sell GBP as high as I can. Its 5270 to 5480, even 5650 and Ill still be a bear on Weekly. Both Indexes crossed on weekly which is relatively a nice direction play. Daily index: The problem is that lower TFs are bullish. As seen on Daily, td it moved into a buying GBP motion. For me to play a weekly scenario is just what I want. I want strong GBP to sell into. Another...

Thanks for that. Very well explained.
My take from 50,000 feet is that we are entering a summer period of consolidation and there will probably not be much sustained action in either direction until the German elections and the September Fed rate statement. However, as usual the market will try to front run their perceived probable results of both events... more so the Fed rate statement by keeping a very close eye on US unemployment claims and NFP as well as their subset indicative data from the manufacturing and services PMIs. This will start later today with the US jobless claims number.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,748
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:03am Jul 18, 2013 5:03am
Quoting godim
{quote} The scenario was simple. The cable is growing rapidly. The euro once him. While eur/gbp fall. Now? Something must change. For example, the cable will go over 5201. But whether this will provide "sufficient" support. Then? The cable stays for support in 5229, the euro is growing. While eur/gbp goes into UpSwing? Any such thoughts And all this just for a pip, Markus!
eur/gbp Downward trend continues

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Yes. Becomes more interesting. Without UpSwing here. At least 8 hours.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,749
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:04am Jul 18, 2013 5:04am
Gold H4 update and NZD H1:
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  • #1,750
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:31am Jul 18, 2013 5:31am
if not for danger zone to sell it then?

mini sp500
GRAFIC M
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  • #1,751
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:16am Jul 18, 2013 6:16am
Quoting kaka_ht
Gold H4 update and NZD H1: {image} {image}
Hi Kaka,

Thanks for sharing your nice analysis. But do the outside reversal bars give you any concern that maybe the C wave ended yesterday?
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  • #1,752
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:35am Jul 18, 2013 6:35am
Quoting kaka_ht
Gold H4 update and NZD H1: {image} {image}

Hi Kaka,


nice counts and charts.

And take into consideration what BIG asked regarding the outside reversal bar

So question is:

may it be appropriate to enter already short with lower leverage and add later eventually, or wait for the wave 5 and miss the entire boat eventually
  • #1,753
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:35am Jul 18, 2013 6:35am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Hi Kaka, Thanks for sharing your nice analysis. But do the outside reversal bars give you any concern that maybe the C wave ended yesterday? {image}

well spotted :-)
  • #1,754
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:44am Jul 18, 2013 6:44am
Quoting godim
{quote} ... Something must change. For example, the cable will go over 5201. But whether this will provide "sufficient" support. Then? The cable stays for support in 5229, the euro is growing. While eur/gbp goes into UpSwing?Any such thoughts And all this just for a pip, Markus!
Some things happened and some do not. From my scenario. I think in time warned of continued DownTrend in eur/gbp.
Let us now prepare for possible events in an hour and a half.
First cable. Where will be important level?
Important level will be 5210 and I expect thereof support in the baseline scenario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 96 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,755
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:53am Jul 18, 2013 6:53am
Quoting godim
{quote} Some things happened and some do not. From my scenario. I think in time warned of continued DownTrend in eur/gbp. Let us now prepare for possible events in an hour and a half. First cable. Where will be important level? Important level will be 5210 and I expect thereof support in the baseline scenario. {image}
Euro. The euro finally need to get support from this line that walking all day today. This is the baseline scenario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,756
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:04am Jul 18, 2013 7:04am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Kaka, nice counts and charts. And take into consideration what BIG asked regarding the outside reversal bar So question is: may it be appropriate to enter already short with lower leverage and add later eventually, or wait for the wave 5 and miss the entire boat eventually
Hi infi!Thanks for your answer!
I don't short now because it's high risk,I wait for PA confimation!
My Gold plan is:
Put buy stop right above 1310(when PA break strong supply zone) and sell limit right below 1265(when PA break strong demand zone and if this my count is unvalid because wave 4 go into the wave 2's territory and the up wave C is really end)
  • #1,757
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:06am Jul 18, 2013 7:06am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Hi Kaka, Thanks for sharing your nice analysis. But do the outside reversal bars give you any concern that maybe the C wave ended yesterday? {image}
Hi Boring!
I don't think wave C ended yesterday untill PA really break down the strong demand area(at right below 1265 area)
  • #1,758
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:10am Jul 18, 2013 7:10am
Quoting kaka_ht
{quote} Hi Boring! I don't think wave C ended yesterday until PA really break down the strong demand area(at right below 1265 area)
Okey, thanks.
  • #1,759
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:16am Jul 18, 2013 7:16am
Hi, my first post, hope is relevant.

This a 4h TF and in less than 1 hour the last bar will be completed. I see a possible false break of the bearish trend line, if the last bar will close above the mentioned trend line the better, indicating to me that the bulls could be trapped twice, my entry is only below that bar.
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #1,760
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:17am Jul 18, 2013 7:17am
A little lyrical digression. You see, when you have drawn the angles of Gann's not hard to made ​​several development scenarios. Problem occurs only with the trigger, the start of the movement. In this connection Gann was engaged in astrology. When, according to the stars may occur this start. I do not do that, but you know that in FF there is a special thread for this. The problem is that there are more Astrologer than followers of Gann. One who is an expert on both, IMO, is Matei from Romania. To our regret, he explains things after they have happened.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
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