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  • #161
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:15am Jul 18, 2013 4:15am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} You have a lot to learn, you are exactly what brokers pray for, I wouldn't be surprised if you worked for a broker?
Broker shills wouldn't go around saying this is gambling.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #162
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:21am Jul 18, 2013 4:21am
Just because people fail does not prove something is impossible.

Trading is no different to any business, there are risks and there are rewards. The business that get the balance right make a lot of profit, but lot's of business get it wrong and fail. They usually blame the stuff out of their control but more often than not it is due to their own failings.

Markets are not random, if they were random they would jump around all over the place, you would not get trends and repeating patterns, markets are chaotic which is similar to random but with distinct differences. The weather is not totally random, it is chaotic and can be fairly accurately predicted, it is exactly the same.

There are lots of people that fail at trading, mainly because it is on the whole a self taught skill, also because of the negative rubbish pumped out best on nothing more than traders own bad experiences.

Facts are nearly half of traders have a sufficient win rate to be profitable but do not manage their trades correctly... it's a case of 'nearly, but no cigar'
tradewith60
  • #163
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:22am Jul 18, 2013 4:22am
Quoting Patience
{quote} Broker shills wouldn't go around saying this is gambling.
clearly I don't think he works for a broker, i was making a point about the self defeating negative attitude that prevails in forex and is mainly untrue.
tradewith60
  • #164
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:41am Jul 18, 2013 4:41am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} clearly I don't think he works for a broker, i was making a point about the self defeating negative attitude that prevails in forex and is mainly untrue.
Ttop's post did not come across as negative to me. More like realism.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #165
  • Edited 5:00am Jul 18, 2013 4:47am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting Patience
{quote} Ttop's post did not come across as negative to me. More like realism.
Of course you're entitled to your opinion, if you believe markets are random there is nothing wrong with that, I don't.

For me, and I suspect everyone in my skype room we know otherwise.

Maybe you should also check out Jay Norris if you're more inclined to believe a "pro" trader, see what he says about fractal geometry and chaos.


p.s I also never said his post was negative...
tradewith60
  • #166
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:04am Jul 18, 2013 5:04am
Quoting 60minuteman
Markets are not random, if they were random they would jump around all over the place, you would not get trends and repeating patterns, markets are chaotic which is similar to random but with distinct differences. The weather is not totally random, it is chaotic and can be fairly accurately predicted, it is exactly the same. There are lots of people that fail at trading, mainly because it is on the whole a self taught skill, also because of the negative rubbish pumped out best on nothing more than traders own bad experiences. Facts are nearly half...
I beg to differ, any random sequence will show repeated patterns and trends that can be explored on historical data. If you want some data to look random you miss these points but you will create artifical sequence that is not random.
And for the winners and losers, if you take 10000 traders that will work hard and aquire skills for trading you will show some of these traders with magnificent results some losers and some BE players thats just normal distribution. But I understand that every successul trade will contribute his success to some very specific atributes or actions he has done more then to luck and vice versa.
  • #167
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:15am Jul 18, 2013 5:15am
Quoting alter
{quote} I beg to differ, any random sequence will show repeated patterns and trends that can be explored on historical data. If you want some data to look random you miss these points but you will create artifical sequence that is not random. And for the winners and losers, if you take 10000 traders that will work hard and aquire skills for trading you will show some of these traders with magnificent results some losers and some BE players thats just normal distribution. But I understand that every successul trade will contribute his success to...
Again you're entitled to an opinion, and it's probably shared by the majority, and the majority lose.
tradewith60
  • #168
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:27am Jul 18, 2013 5:27am
Quoting Ttop
Whether you need luck or skill to profit from forex depends on whether you are gambling or investing. If you are gambling you need luck to win but if you are investing then you need skill to win.
Can you elaborate on that, because I´m not sure it´s true.
  • #169
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:49am Jul 18, 2013 5:49am
Quoting 60minuteman
Maybe you should also check out Jay Norris if you're more inclined to believe a "pro" trader, see what he says about fractal geometry and chaos.
I don't get bogged down in all that stuff. Either a trade is there or it isn't. I couldn't care less about fractal geometry and chaos.

Besides, you seem to know where the market is going. Do you not consider yourself a "pro" and worth listening to?
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #170
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:24am Jul 18, 2013 6:24am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} You have a lot to learn, you are exactly what brokers pray for, I wouldn't be surprised if you worked for a broker?
I cannot see how you construed my post to be favourable for any forex broker. Why am I exactly what brokers pray for? They would surely be praying for more victims? Sign up! Sign up! The new Klondike rush is here...trade forex! My post concluded that trading forex is gambling and therefore high risk, precisely the opposite of what brokers would pray for.

Please be assured that I am not employed by a broker or any other financial player and never have been.
  • #171
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:39am Jul 18, 2013 6:39am
Quoting Myo
{quote} Can you elaborate on that, because I´m not sure it´s true.
Good fortune (luck) is useful in everything we do so good luck in investing is very helpful. However, imo, investing requires that we find opportunities with good odds that will make profits over time (not on one spin of the roulette wheel). Finding these opportunities requires skill and work. And then of course comes the more important decision...when to sell? What is your opinion?
  • #172
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:46am Jul 18, 2013 6:46am
Quoting alter
{quote} I beg to differ, any random sequence will show repeated patterns and trends that can be explored on historical data. If you want some data to look random you miss these points but you will create artifical sequence that is not random. And for the winners and losers, if you take 10000 traders that will work hard and aquire skills for trading you will show some of these traders with magnificent results some losers and some BE players thats just normal distribution. But I understand that every successul trade will contribute his success to...
Of the 10000 traders 95% will fail, that is NOT the Normal Distribution. I warmly congratulate the 5% that remain successful over the long term (5 years and more), especially those that can earn enough trading forex so as to not need a day job.
  • #173
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:57am Jul 18, 2013 6:57am
Quoting Ttop
{quote} I cannot see how you construed my post to be favourable for any forex broker. Why am I exactly what brokers pray for? They would surely be praying for more victims? Sign up! Sign up! The new Klondike rush is here...trade forex! My post concluded that trading forex is gambling and therefore high risk, precisely the opposite of what brokers would pray for. Please be assured that I am not employed by a broker or any other financial player and never have been.

As long as people believe markets are random, you need luck etc etc 95|% lose etc etc.. all that crap that gets published everywhere... then traders will continue to make the same mistakes over and over again and the brokers will continue to make lots of money.

That's why....

Are you familiar with positive mental attitude? or psychology? or letting emotions affect your trading? being a trader I presume you're aware of these issues?...

And where the hell do you get this 95% from? it's not true its forum crap....
tradewith60
  • #174
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:59am Jul 18, 2013 6:59am
Quoting Patience
{quote} I don't get bogged down in all that stuff. Either a trade is there or it isn't. I couldn't care less about fractal geometry and chaos. Besides, you seem to know where the market is going. Do you not consider yourself a "pro" and worth listening to?
I wouldn't get yourself bogged down with what I consider about myself, you sound like you know what you're doing.
tradewith60
  • #175
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:05am Jul 18, 2013 7:05am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I wouldn't get yourself bogged down with what I consider about myself, you sound like you know what you're doing.

Everything in life requires luck. Do the Gods favor you?
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #176
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:08am Jul 18, 2013 7:08am
Quoting 60minuteman
Just because people fail does not prove something is impossible. Trading is no different to any business, there are risks and there are rewards. The business that get the balance right make a lot of profit, but lot's of business get it wrong and fail. They usually blame the stuff out of their control but more often than not it is due to their own failings. Markets are not random, if they were random they would jump around all over the place, you would not get trends and repeating patterns, markets are chaotic which is similar to random but with...
Hi please take my following comments in the spirit of the debate and not any kind of personal criticism. "Just because people fail does not prove something is impossible" -------Agreed

"Trading is no different to any business, there are risks and there are rewards."-----Just because there are risks and rewards does not make a business viable.

"Markets are not random, if they were random they would jump around all over the place, you would not get trends and repeating patterns, markets are chaotic which is similar to random but with distinct differences."------Markets have been shown to be random in the short term. In-depth research was done in the 1960s by eminent researchers such as Prof Robert Levy. Despite many such studies, the results have never been disputed.

"There are lots of people that fail at trading, mainly because it is on the whole a self taught skill"----Playing poker, roulette and Blackjack are also self-taught skills but the casinos keep winning, why? No amount of skill can make up for the fact that the odds are against the punter. The punter needs to find a game to play that he can win at.

"Facts are nearly half of traders have a sufficient win rate to be profitable but do not manage their trades correctly"----Please direct me to this evidence.
  • #177
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:14am Jul 18, 2013 7:14am
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} Everything in life requires luck. Do the Gods favor you?
I don't believe in any gods, luck will be an element in anything requiring skill but only skill will be able to maintain consistent success.
tradewith60
  • #178
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:18am Jul 18, 2013 7:18am
I don't think luck is needed to do this properly. You need luck in a casino. In trading if you have an edge + rules + plan that produces a positive return over time then you just need the skill to trade it without mistakes or deviating.

It's not any more complicated than that.

Just my 2c
Anything can happen.
  • #179
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:28am Jul 18, 2013 7:28am
Hi please take my following comments in the spirit of the debate and not any kind of personal criticism. "Just because people fail does not prove something is impossible" -------Agreed

"Trading is no different to any business, there are risks and there are rewards."-----Just because there are risks and rewards does not make a business viable.

where did I say it did??? But if it is possible to have control over risk and reward then it is most likely viable with some skill, and yes, maybe a little luck

"Markets are not random, if they were random they would jump around all over the place, you would not get trends and repeating patterns, markets are chaotic which is similar to random but with distinct differences."------Markets have been shown to be random in the short term. In-depth research was done in the 1960s by eminent researchers such as Prof Robert Levy. Despite many such studies, the results have never been disputed.

they have not been disputed but there are also studies that disagree with that thesis and they too have not been disputed

"There are lots of people that fail at trading, mainly because it is on the whole a self taught skill"----Playing poker, roulette and Blackjack are also self-taught skills but the casinos keep winning, why? No amount of skill can make up for the fact that the odds are against the punter. The punter needs to find a game to play that he can win at.

the casino controls the game in a casino, the dealer will always have the edge over the player because casino bosses aren't stupid. In trading the odds are equal for all players.


"Facts are nearly half of traders have a sufficient win rate to be profitable but do not manage their trades correctly"----Please direct me to this evidence.

try google, you're basing your future on this i presume? arm yourself with the best knowledge you can find. Most of the brokers publish hard data... here's 1 article to be going on with.

There's a tendency in forex/trading to believe stuff becuase it gets repeated everywhere and often, and if the facts ARE that the majority are wrong, it makes sense to question those forex facts, it might just be the difference between winning and losing...

tradewith60
  • #180
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:29am Jul 18, 2013 7:29am
Quoting ddinnov
I don't think luck is needed to do this properly. You need luck in a casino. In trading if you have an edge + rules + plan that produces a positive return over time then you just need the skill to trade it without mistakes or deviating. It's not any more complicated than that. Just my 2c
If you don't have billions of $ to play with and an army of PhDs and rocket scientists in your trading room on million $ bonuses to make profits , what kind of an edge can you really have?
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