Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 27 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #521
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:09am Jul 17, 2013 9:09am
Not sure what your problem with time is, many people was there. That's why I also mentoned "right at NY Open". Forex NY Open is the same time for everybody. In Spain it's at 2 pm, in UK it's 1 pm, you adapt it to your timezone. The webinar is recorded, will be uploading it soon.

Alfonso

Quoting mosah
Hi Alfonso, Today, i entered the webinar at 13H00 GMT and i find you started at 12H00 GMT. The same thing has happened to me for the first Webinar. I always miss you by 1 hour. Fortunately, the webinar is recorded. Am I wrong with these stuff or what?
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #522
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:23am Jul 17, 2013 9:23am
Mosah.

You are not allowing for DST, however no excuses you should know when the US open is, as Alfonso says.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #523
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:48am Jul 17, 2013 10:48am
Second webinar held today has been uploaded to YouTube. It's 1h and 50 minutes long.

On today's webinar we mainly covered how to score a level based on 6 odds enhancers:

  1. STRENGTH OF DEPARTURE. 2 points
  2. NUMBER OF PULLBACKS. 2 points
  3. PROFIT MARGIN. 3:1 or more. 2 points
  4. BIGGER PICTURE. 2 points
  5. TIME AT LEVEL. 1 point
  6. ARRIVAL. 1 point

IF TOTAL SCORE IS = to

  1. 9 or 10, you can SET & FORGET (set a limit order)
  2. 8 = confirmation entry. We wait for an engulf pattern, brand new lower timeframe SD areas to take out opposing SD areas
  3. 7 = No trade

We also analyzed a couple of pairs and practiced how to score levels on lower and higher timeframes.
I hope that this new webinar has casted some more light on your supply and demand trading.

The video can be found here:

Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #524
  • Jul 17, 2013 12:20pm Jul 17, 2013 12:20pm
hey Did you considered using Average directional movement index i think it sort some of bad signals
  • #525
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:37pm Jul 17, 2013 1:37pm
I don't know what Average directional movement index is or how it can be read. I am trying not to add more information to my charts though. But as I said, I donkt know what that index is about or how it can be applied to sd trading.

Alfonso

Quoting blitzkie
hey Did you considered using Average directional movement index i think it sort some of bad signals
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #526
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:07pm Jul 17, 2013 4:07pm
Hi Alfonso, Another fantastic and informative webinar .. thank you very much
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #527
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:33pm Jul 17, 2013 4:33pm
Thanks for taking the time to do education.

DM
Trade smart. OR JUST DON'T TRADE!!!
  • #528
  • Edited 5:38pm Jul 17, 2013 5:18pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting panoramia
Hello Jasmina! Thanks for your chart. I do have myself a limit buy order on a H4 demand level, but one higher than yours. There is a first D1 zone we found on the way down, a speedbump demand. My H4 long order is within the first D1 demand area. There is a second D1 demand speedbump right below but departure was not that good. There is a nice H4 demand level there which is the one Larra mentioned. Price is at 50% on the weekly chart now, diddle in the middle. It could go either way, but I want to try that H4 demand level at the D1 demand speedbump....
Hi Alfonso,

I'm a little confused with the USDCHF H4 trade setup. When I look at the chart I don't see enough profit margin. Maybe I am looking/measuring profit margin from the wrong place.

Can you show on the chart with a line or a rectangle box where you measure the profit margin on this setup?

Thx

p.s
Just watching video and you have picture that shows to measure the initial move away to determine risk to reward ration.
When measuring the initial move for USDCHF the profit margin is there.

However, when I look at chart now it has a lot of price action just above the level which makes the risk/reward not so good.
When you review charts and you see this type of price action would this recent price action cause you to cancel the trade?

Are there any other things that would cause you to cancel a pending order?
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #529
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:51pm Jul 17, 2013 6:51pm
Hi Peter,

I measure profit margin from the origin of the rectangle (demand area) to where price decided to go in the opposite direction. If there are supply areas right above my demand area, then profit margin is reduced.

Remember that D1 demand areas, if the level is good, it will take out lower timeframes supply areas (H4 and lower), it's the SD nature. When a higher timeframe demand is in control, it will most likely absorb lower timeframe supply.

Take a look at my H4 USDCHF chart again, you will see what I mean. My live MT is off at this time of the day, so I pasted chart from a demo account. I don't want to open my live charts, I would break my rules.

NOTE: remember that if your demand level is located on H4, if you look at lower timeframes you will see lots of H1/M15 supply zones, and you will think that those can reduce your risk/reward. But again, when a higher timeframe demand is in control, lower timeframe supply will most likely be taken out.

The D1 demand was already hit, it bounced 80 pips already.

Alfonso

Quoting outapips
{quote} Hi Alfonso, I'm a little confused with the USDCHF H4 trade setup. When I look at the chart I don't see enough profit margin. Maybe I am looking/measuring profit margin from the wrong place. Can you show on the chart with a line or a rectangle box where you measure the profit margin on this setup? Thx p.s Just watching video and you have picture that shows to measure the initial move away to determine risk to reward ration. When measuring the initial move for USDCHF the profit margin is there. However, when I look at chart now it has a lot...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_h4.png Size: 69 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #530
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:06pm Jul 17, 2013 9:06pm
Really great and informative 2nd webinar Alfonso. Thanks again!
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
  • #531
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:28pm Jul 17, 2013 10:28pm
hi alfonso,

many thanks for the webinar - it was very helpfull - to see, talk and ask questions - is much better then only reading the thread.

hope you continue. i apreciate a lot your work and the time you spend for us.

kind regards, ts



Quoting panoramia
Second webinar held today
  • #532
  • Jul 18, 2013 1:06am Jul 18, 2013 1:06am
Quoting panoramia
Hi Peter, I measure profit margin from the origin of the rectangle (demand area) to where price decided to go in the opposite direction. If there are supply areas right above my demand area, then profit margin is reduced. Remember that D1 demand areas, if the level is good, it will take out lower timeframes supply areas (H4 and lower), it's the SD nature. When a higher timeframe demand is in control, it will most likely absorb lower timeframe supply. Take a look at my H4 USDCHF chart again, you will see what I mean. My live MT is off at this time...

That makes it much clearer for me .. thx again
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #533
  • Jul 18, 2013 1:09am Jul 18, 2013 1:09am
Hi Alfonso,

Thanks again for taking the time to run the webinar. I wish I could stay till the end of it but however I did learn a lot from it. I have attached a EURUSD chart on a possible buy entry. Your comments and inputs on this entry is greatly appreciated.

Thank you.

Syafiq
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H4.png Size: 34 KB
  • #534
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:15am Jul 18, 2013 2:15am
Hi Syafiq,

That high (spike) was not taken out by that level you painted, so for me it's not a demand level. There is far too much trading on the H4 on that area, look at the screenshot I attached based on your chart. That's what I see.

Right now price is in the middle of the WK curve, trying to make higher highs on lower timeframes, but those highs were not taken out by that level, so not for me, not in my rules.

Alfonso

Quoting Voiture_10
Hi Alfonso, Thanks again for taking the time to run the webinar. I wish I could stay till the end of it but however I did learn a lot from it. I have attached a EURUSD chart on a possible buy entry. Your comments and inputs on this entry is greatly appreciated. Thank you. Syafiq {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_comment2.png Size: 142 KB
Attached Image
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #535
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:31am Jul 18, 2013 2:31am
Hi Alfonso,

I did question myself on the possibility of the other candles in the same area as my DZ having an impact on my entry. And you made a very strong and valid point about it and how the previous spike has not been consumed by demand.

Thanks.

Syafiq
  • #536
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:38am Jul 18, 2013 2:38am
Hi Syafiq,

That H4 area with so many candles on it could be a nice D1 demand area on eurusd BUT by definition a D1 demand should take out opposing supply or resistance. This D1 level I painted is not on my charts, but it shows why it's not a valid level for me, it didn't make a HH


Quoting Voiture_10
Hi Alfonso, I did question myself on the possibility of the other candles in the same area as my DZ having an impact on my entry. And you made a very strong and valid point about it and how the previous spike has not been consumed by demand. Thanks. Syafiq
Attached Image
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #537
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:45am Jul 18, 2013 3:45am
Hi Alfonso,

Based on the D1 chart, the long candle prior to the speedbump where the DZ lies did consume previous supply speedbump. Will you not consider that move as a change of trend to the upside and a possible entry on the demand speedbump for a continuation of trend?

Syafiq
  • #538
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:49am Jul 18, 2013 3:49am
Hello,

GBPUSD H4 TF for a possible buy entry? Your inputs and comments are greatly appreciated.

THank you.

Syafiq
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.png Size: 32 KB
  • #539
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:50am Jul 18, 2013 3:50am
Hi Syafiq,

You are using the Reply button instead of the QUOTE button to reply an existing post. When you do so, anybody reading will not know what you are referring to. You didn't quote my message or added any screenshot, it's difficult to follow. Please use the QUOTE button on the post you are interested to quote/reply so that we all know what you are referring to. Please try to add some screnshots of what you are trying to put forward, it's easier and faster to understand. You can download a free tool like JING to do that.

Thanks for all!
Alfonso

Quoting Voiture_10
Hi Alfonso, Based on the D1 chart, the long candle prior to the speedbump where the DZ lies did consume previous supply speedbump. Will you not consider that move as a change of trend to the upside and a possible entry on the demand speedbump for a continuation of trend? Syafiq
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #540
  • Edited 4:06am Jul 18, 2013 3:53am | Edited 4:06am
Remember what we talked yesterday on the webinar! We are right within a D1 supply zone on the pound, we shouldn't be buying in such an scenario.

Would you buy in a H4 used up demand area right underneath the D1 supply? I missed the H4 short entry at 1.5270 by very fews pips, pity!


Quoting Voiture_10
Hello, GBPUSD H4 TF for a possible buy entry? Your inputs and comments are greatly appreciated. THank you. Syafiq {image}
Attached Image
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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