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No skill in trading! 107 replies

"The JUICE" - how do you separate skill from luck? 14 replies

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Need luck or skill for trading?

  • #141
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:09am Jul 17, 2013 2:09am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
Quoting 60minuteman
... No luck required.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #142
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:36am Jul 17, 2013 2:36am
I don't see any skill in trading. I see knowledge (from study and experience), character and luck.
  • #143
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:37am Jul 17, 2013 7:37am
Quoting 60minuteman
Long Gold today... wait for price to turn first H1 or to be safer H4... if not from here from 1288, then from 1283 or 1279.4 Watch SR, wait for Price to confirm, set appropriate technical SL and TP... No luck required.

ok 1283 it is then... so luck, skill or news?
tradewith60
  • #144
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:34am Jul 17, 2013 8:34am
Quoting Nilfmonkey
I don't see any skill in trading. I see knowledge (from study and experience), character and luck.
A skill is the learned ability to carry out pre-determined results often with the minimum outlay of time, energy, or both.
tradewith60
  • #145
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:56am Jul 17, 2013 8:56am
Quoting Nilfmonkey
I don't see any skill in trading. I see knowledge (from study and experience), character and luck.
The skill is in knowing how to apply that learned knowledge.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #146
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:55pm Jul 17, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting alter
{quote} In the lottery the odds are against you, of course you can win and you would considered luck trader but you can not build a system around it can you? Maybe if yuou can win 5 years in a row some people would say you are skilled right? In the market you can exposes yourself to oportunities to be lucky. O lose 95% of my trades and Im lucky just in 5 cases from 100. And no I dont see the future either some event happent or it doesnt so I can capitalize on it. But the question was u need skill or luck? Statistically there is a lot of unskilled...
I find a lot of contradictions in your way of putting things. Why the need to build a system at all, if it's all luck? Also, it is perfectly possible to build a system aimed at winning the lottery. The important question is: will that system be based on some sound principle that consistently puts odds in your favour? Skill doesn't necessarily require hard work (effort). Being skilled often equates with being able to execute a task at minimum, or no effort whatsoever. Finally, one may choose to have skills by acquiring knowledge and putting it to practice (learning), or not. It's a choice, something the individual can control, and it's stable. Luck, on the other hand, is outside the realm of things the individual can control (I mean control directly anyway), and it's unstable. If one could choose to have luck, or when to have luck, them wouldn't be luck at all. Luck is not a choice.

Anyway answering your last question formulated in terms I find more correct: Would I choose to do a lot of hard work for no pay (A), or would I choose to do no work at all and get a big paycheck in the the end (B)? Then hands down, I would choose B. Everyone would choose B. But is that even a choice?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #147
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:56pm Jul 17, 2013 2:56pm
For me, about trading, luck and skill : We need luck to get our desired price target for profit. We need skill to get ourselves manageable risk / losses and making money.
  • #148
  • Jul 17, 2013 3:25pm Jul 17, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} ok 1283 it is then... so luck, skill or news?

hey 60, did your weekly or daily TF's catch the back flip>?
And to answer your question: luck that your original trade worked out, skill for you to spot it, and news to confirm it.
A guitar has 6 strings did you know>?

I get this whole control vibe from you. It comes across as arrogance. Answer me this, do you often try and force your equity curve into things it really doesn't want to do?
Time hides Nothing
  • #149
  • Edited 3:34pm Jul 17, 2013 3:27pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} A skill is the learned ability to carry out pre-determined results often with the minimum outlay of time, energy, or both.
I think a skill is the ability to zero in on what's important, therefore less energy and time is required. That's what golf has taught me after 15 years of playing it.
Time hides Nothing
  • #150
  • Jul 17, 2013 3:45pm Jul 17, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} hey 60, did your weekly or daily TF's catch the back flip>? And to answer your question: luck that your original trade worked out, skill for you to spot it, and news to confirm it. A guitar has 6 strings did you know>? I get this whole control vibe from you. It comes across as arrogance. Answer me this, do you often try and force your equity curve into things it really doesn't want to do?
mmmm.... are you asking me if I make mistakes because i'm a control freak....? Yes I do, but my analysis is rarely wrong.

Arrogant, maybe.... I like to think of it as confident in my analysis based on past results.

Fact is price leaves clues and pointers and its surprisingly accurate.

here was gold's big clue that it needed more up....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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tradewith60
  • #151
  • Jul 17, 2013 3:56pm Jul 17, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} mmmm.... are you asking me if I make mistakes because i'm a control freak....? Yes I do, but my analysis is rarely wrong. Arrogant, maybe.... I like to think of it as confident in my analysis based on past results. Fact is price leaves clues and pointers and its surprisingly accurate. here was gold's big clue that it needed more up.... {image}
Fair enough each to his own, clues and pointers can be found off the chart as well and I find them much more accurate, sometimes though the market is confused and so a gamble is the best I can do...what price did you enter long? and was it before or after the news? Just curious
Time hides Nothing
  • #152
  • Jul 17, 2013 3:58pm Jul 17, 2013 3:58pm
I would say you need more skill then anything else. Luck will earn you great profit, but it isn't something which is consistent. Skill allows a person to be consistent, and not to become emotional. The trading I have done the last 3 days shows it. Withdraw and try to repeat without redepositing.
  • #153
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:06pm Jul 17, 2013 4:06pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Fair enough each to his own, clues and pointers can be found off the chart as well and I find them much more accurate, sometimes though the market is confused and so a gamble is the best I can do...what price did you enter long? and was it before or after the news? Just curious
I didn't get the long, I wait for H1 or H4 confirm of daily SR and the first h1 went straight to TP, happens sometimes, especially if gentle Ben's doing his thing.... In general I take no notice of news because it tends to just accelerate price movements between SR. On some occasions price will run stops at obvious SR but that is by no means only occurring during news releases.

I got the oil long though... can't win them all.
tradewith60
  • #154
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:14pm Jul 17, 2013 4:14pm
forex trading need several skills
  • #155
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:29pm Jul 17, 2013 6:29pm
1283 for shorts tomorrow cindy...wait for h1 or h4 to close down

If you look at the poll on page 1 and add all the traders who only use 1 TF... that's an interesting %age
tradewith60
  • #156
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:29pm Jul 17, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting 60minuteman
1283 for shorts tomorrow cindy...wait for h1 or h4 to close down If you look at the poll on page 1 and add all the traders who only use 1 TF... that's an interesting %age
Rodger that.. Double points if you can tell me whats moving Gold right now apart from your TF's... Will be watching.
Time hides Nothing
  • #157
  • Jul 17, 2013 11:26pm Jul 17, 2013 11:26pm
Some people simply say, "when people succeed, it is because of hard work, luch has nothing to do with success". what you guys think? When people succeed, it is because of hard work, but luck also plays a role. Hard work can invite good luck. When it comes to success, luck can mean being in the right place to meet someone, or having the right skills to get job done. It might mean turning down an offer and then having a better offer come along. Nothing can replace hard work, but working hard also means you are preparing yourself for oppertunity and opportunity very often depends on luck.
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #158
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:40am Jul 18, 2013 2:40am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Rodger that.. Double points if you can tell me whats moving Gold right now apart from your TF's... Will be watching.
easy peasy... this is moving gold

Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #159
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:40am Jul 18, 2013 2:40am
Whether you need luck or skill to profit from forex depends on whether you are gambling or investing. If you are gambling you need luck to win but if you are investing then you need skill to win.

What is gambling? Acting in uncertain conditions does not mean that one is gambling. Uncertainty pervades our lives. Will you still be here tomorrow?

Here are a few differences between gambling and investing:

1. If the odds of winning are not in your favour, you are gambling
2. Are the results random? Gambling results are based on pure chance. Investing results have some underlying reason.
3. Does the game end if you lose your stake? For example, in a casino, if you lose a hand of blackjack you lose your stake and you are out of that particular game of blackjack. Compare this to if you buy stocks and they drop you can still hold on and if the stock price recovers then you get your money back.
4. Does someone have to lose in order for someone else to profit? Is it a zero-sum game?

In my experience:

1. The odds of winning are not in the small trader's favour. More than 95% (apparently) lose money. And when you see brokers offering $1000 or more just to open an account with them, you have to realise that these are businessmen and are not giving away their wealth without a purpose. They know that they will reap fortunes from taking the other side of small trader's bets as well as from the spreads that they charge.

2. Are the results random? In my experience it seems that they are. For example, this is a news-driven market. News is unpredictable because any politician, central banker, banker, economist etc can open his/her mouth at any time, or important economic figures are released and cause a loss on your trade.

3. Does the game end if you lose your stake? Yes! Place a trade and when your stop loss is hit, you lose and are closed out of that trade. You don't get to hang on to your position while it perhaps recovers.

4. Is it a zero-sum game? Definitely. In fact it is worse because of the spreads that brokers charge

Two last poinst about odds of winning. There is a well-known statistical proof that is called "Gambler's Ruin" which shows that even in a fair game, the player that starts with the most capital has the highest odds of winning. A small player with limited capital and having to limit bet sizes because of margin requirements who takes on giant institutions in the forex market is likely to eventually go broke. The longer you play, the greater the chance you are going to lose everything. Casinos make a healthy living with odds in their favour of just above 50%. Compare this to the 95% loss rate of traders in the forex market.

The above shows that trading forex is gambling and hence no form of analysis, system or skill will help. Luck is required. Sure, there will be some lucky winners just as there are lotto winners but the vast majority of traders have and will continue to lose their shirts despite the millions of trading systems that have been tried. Is any further evidence needed?
  • #160
  • Jul 18, 2013 4:11am Jul 18, 2013 4:11am
Quoting Ttop
Whether you need luck or skill to profit from forex depends on whether you are gambling or investing. If you are gambling you need luck to win but if you are investing then you need skill to win. What is gambling? Acting in uncertain conditions does not mean that one is gambling. Uncertainty pervades our lives. Will you still be here tomorrow? Here are a few differences between gambling and investing: 1. If the odds of winning are not in your favour, you are gambling 2. Are the results random? Gambling results are based on pure chance. Investing...

You have a lot to learn, you are exactly what brokers pray for, I wouldn't be surprised if you worked for a broker?
tradewith60
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