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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #1,681
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:57am Jul 17, 2013 8:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
AUD/USD looks like it is attempting a bottoming process. Can somebody give me an EW count on higher time frames (H4 and above)? I would like to start selling it again around 0.95/0.96 area {image}

Hi PT,

find attached the desired count. My view now is, that we are certainly in a wave 4 action. Wave 2 retraced deep, so rule of alternation calls for sideways pattern.

I think think this will last for a few days/weeks.

Looking at the subwaves of the wave 4 now shows an ABC-flat (up), which may be finished, so I would expect the next move down.

In the chart you can spot the resistance shelf in the 95/96 area. I would like to see the price there - it would provide exceptional good shorting opportunity.

But maybe correction ends already in the 93/94 region.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Daily_snapshot2.png Size: 39 KB
  • #1,682
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:58am Jul 17, 2013 8:58am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} for me it looks like: ending diagonal at the end of the move down. Then followed by an ABC-flat 3-3-5, where we are now in wave 5 of the C-wave impulse Correction may end soon here. But the ABC may only be the wave W of a complex WXY
I can not think so abstract.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,683
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:08am Jul 17, 2013 9:08am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi PT, find attached the desired count. My view now is, that we are certainly in a wave 4 action. Wave 2 retraced deep, so rule of alternation calls for sideways pattern. I think think this will last for a few days/weeks. Looking at the subwaves of the wave 4 now shows an ABC-flat (up), which may be finished, so I would expect the next move down. In the chart you can spot the resistance shelf in the 95/96 area. I would like to see the price there - it would provide exceptional good shorting opportunity. But maybe correction ends already...
Thanks bro. I don't like the current level for short entries. If we see 95/96 area, I will happily short it. If not, it can leave without me. Many more nicer opportunities developing out there to worry about this one at current levels.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,684
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:17am Jul 17, 2013 9:17am
Benny's testimony - LIVE

www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN3/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,685
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:38am Jul 17, 2013 9:38am
Seems to me the algos just kicked in. Do they have what it takes to drive the USD higher?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,686
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:46am Jul 17, 2013 9:46am
Quoting BoringIsGood
Gold looking very ripe for a sell off here.
Now she's warming up.
  • #1,687
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:57am Jul 17, 2013 9:57am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Now she's warming up.
I would not be playing with that fire right now.
For now gold looks to me like it has found a temporary bottom and today's swoon has moved right into a demand zone. I think we'll get another pop up before Benny is done. I could be wrong, but it's not a trade I would be very excited to get involved in right now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,688
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:05am Jul 17, 2013 10:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I would not be playing with that fire right now. For now gold looks to me like it has found a temporary bottom and today's swoon has moved right into a demand zone. I think we'll get another pop up before Benny is done. I could be wrong, but it's not a trade I would be very excited to get involved in right now.
This next hourly close is pretty important on my charts. I'm certainly not married to the trade but if it doesn't rebound a bit soon, I'll keep riding the pig.
  • #1,689
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:09am Jul 17, 2013 10:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Thanks bro. I don't like the current level for short entries. If we see 95/96 area, I will happily short it. If not, it can leave without me. Many more nicer opportunities developing out there to worry about this one at current levels.

That is the right mindset. I had to learn that once the hard way LOL


BTW

What happened? LOL

Short time before the fireworks to the downside started, one of my bigger customer called me for discussing some things. I had short orders set @ 3180, but they got not triggered.

Damn, this months, regarding EU, I have missed some nice trains.

But we are by no means out of the chop zone. 3060 to 3030 should give support.
  • #1,690
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:27am Jul 17, 2013 10:27am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} That is the right mindset. I had to learn that once the hard way LOL BTW What happened? LOL Short time before the fireworks to the downside started, one of my bigger customer called me for discussing some things. I had short orders set @ 3180, but they got not triggered. Damn, this months, regarding EU, I have missed some nice trains. But we are by no means out of the chop zone. 3060 to 3030 should give support.
Algos my friend. I tweeted about it and I'm pretty sure I posted something here also. Mind you, many trading desks were calling for a technical move down today, so it may be a bit of both. I don't know the technical details behind their calls coz I don't usually take notice of them. I trade my own signals only. That way if I screw up, I only have myself (or Benny) to blame
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,691
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:31am Jul 17, 2013 10:31am
EURUSD, Daily, 2013 July 17
EURUSD, Monthly, 2013 uly 17
1.3090 could be a probability (within the monthly profit zone) for testing some Longs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,692
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:33am Jul 17, 2013 10:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Oh absolutely. I couldn't agree more. That's partially why I have no problems staying long USD. I'm very patient. I find it much easier (maybe coz I'm a bit lazy?) to wait 12 to 18 months for 50,000 pips in one shot than to work hard for a whole year and hope to capture 1,000 pips per week. Of course the only drawback is that I don't get to experience that instant gratification we all love so much.. but I cannot even begin to describe how good it feels to get it all at once

Hi PT,

since I fear, that here in Germany we will get the transaction tax, trading on small TF may soon get a disaster. So I try more and more to switch to longer TF trades.

Additionally to my daily trading I actively such for opportunities, to nail down the really big swings. Over the last year I rode UJ up, nearly from the bottom aŽnd covered around 101, when I remember correctly. I have posted the trades in the Shangr-La threads.

Such rades are really easy and stress free money at the end. Biggest hurdle is:

a) at the beginning of the trade, especially when higher leveraged, it needs some baby sitting

b) when the waves develop, one has to overcome the reflex, to touch the position in counter moves


Sometimes, when I see bigger counter moves arrive, I hedge partially simply with a counter position
  • #1,693
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:36am Jul 17, 2013 10:36am
Quoting Forexcube
EURUSD, Daily, 2013 July 17 EURUSD, Monthly, 2013 uly 17 1.3090 could be a probability (within the monthly profit zone) for testing some Longs. {image}

on my various Market profiles the POC's now allign in the 3077 to 3096 zone. Should give some support, as it is doing right now

If long here, SL shortly below 3042, which is the H4 POC, which is protected by the -2SD/-3SD of the 1h TF distribution curve
  • #1,694
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:39am Jul 17, 2013 10:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Algos my friend. I tweeted about it and I'm pretty sure I posted something here also. Mind you, many trading desks were calling for a technical move down today, so it may be a bit of both. I don't know the technical details behind their calls coz I don't usually take notice of them. I trade my own signals only. That way if I screw up, I only have myself (or Benny) to blame

So let us agree on Benny
  • #1,695
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:43am Jul 17, 2013 10:43am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} on my various Market profiles the POC's now allign in the 3077 to 3096 zone. Should give some support, as it is doing right now If long here, SL shortly below 3042, which is the H4 POC, which is protected by the -2SD/-3SD of the 1h TF distribution curve
See here


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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BTW: the red point on the charts is the real time price
  • #1,696
  • Edited 10:59am Jul 17, 2013 10:44am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} on my various Market profiles the POC's now allign in the 3077 to 3096 zone. Should give some support, as it is doing right now If long here, SL shortly below 3042, which is the H4 POC, which is protected by the -2SD/-3SD of the 1h TF distribution curve
EURUSD, M1, 2013 July 17
...by executing some scalping trades for bumping up the warchest.

Further scalping trades > which direction?
The market price at H4 is struggling above the middle line of Bollinger Band at the time.
Shorts should be "clinically indicated" when the market price should run down this line.

EURUSD, M1, 2013 July 17
EURUSD, H4, 2013 July 17
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, H4, 2013 July 17.jpg Size: 85 KB
  • #1,697
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:54am Jul 17, 2013 10:54am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} This next hourly close is pretty important on my charts. I'm certainly not married to the trade but if it doesn't rebound a bit soon, I'll keep riding the pig.
YEE-HAW!
Attached Image
  • #1,698
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:59am Jul 17, 2013 10:59am
that is really funny - watch the video


http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...omb-aftermath/
  • #1,699
  • Jul 17, 2013 11:00am Jul 17, 2013 11:00am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} YEE-HAW! {image}

Is that Benny beneath you?
  • #1,700
  • Jul 17, 2013 11:03am Jul 17, 2013 11:03am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} EURUSD, M1, 2013 July 17 ...by executing some scalping trades for bumping up the warchest. Further scalping trades > which direction? The market price at H4 is struggling above the middle line of Bollinger Band at the time. Shorts should be "clinically indicated" when the market price should run down this line. EURUSD, M1, 2013 July 17 EURUSD, H4, 2013 July 17 {image} {image}

Great trade :-)
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