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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #21,841
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:07am Jul 17, 2013 4:07am
Quoting borisviven
{quote} hi jackub ! Once again, excellent explanation Thank you so much for your work / your posts here, i'm sure you are helping a lot of newbies (like me) here, thank you again for that !! traders here, please read, re-read and re-read the # 21831 jackub's post. Perhaps you can print it and put it on the wall, near your pc screen ? Peace, dom
glad you like it...
here is a pdf in any case...

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Shortest and simplest trade instruction possible for newbies like me.pdf   251 KB | 1,347 downloads
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,842
  • Jul 17, 2013 5:12am Jul 17, 2013 5:12am
There is a double top pinbar on EURJPY 1H.

How do I trade this in your opinion Jackup?

I have written down my rules:

1. All EMA above/below price on 4H, 1H and 15M charts to enter. (This is reversal pattern, so do we ignore this rule ? )

2.Clear pattern. (Check)

3. Use S/R as protection for SL, and make sure no S/R in immediate vicinity of price. (BRN is next to current price, and so is Major weekly resistance, now turned support).

When should I enter do you think?
  • #21,843
  • Jul 17, 2013 5:14am Jul 17, 2013 5:14am
GBPUSD also has pinbar. Double top on 4H?

What do you think we should do?
  • #21,844
  • Jul 17, 2013 5:24am Jul 17, 2013 5:24am
Quoting Tok
GBPUSD also has pinbar. Double top on 4H? What do you think we should do?
It will not work that way...
you are trader, you place an order and you have to know WHY you place an order, then if it fail it tells you, you made mistake, your analisis was wrong, and eventually somebody might help you to alayse why it fail, but I will repeat again same as before :

Go through history, searching for trades which worked out and analize why they won, look for TDI, MA'S S/R, and HTF... there is no better way like backtest, write down every trade, make screen shots look at them, analize them, backtes few hundreds trades,
then come back to live market, and check again what have you learned
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,845
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:20am Jul 17, 2013 7:20am
Jackub's right Tok, no-one else can tell you what to trade and what will or won't work, the only way to succeed is to learn a strategy, apply those rules, but get to understand in your own mind why those rules work.

My problem is getting enough screentime, I have a full time job, where I am fortunate enough to have a trading laptop on my desk next to my work PC, but I cannot spend nearly enough time on analysis as I should do.

to help compensate for my lack of screen time, i've started using a forextesting program which has all historic data and will allow me to start at any point in time with it's demo account and it will print charts at whatever speed I like, allowing you to pause to check analysis and place trades then click through as your trade unfolds. Then I speed up to max during the sessions I don't normally trade.

Using this means I can get around 2 months of simulated real time trading practiced in a single evening. I've not been using it long, but hopefully it will help improve my choice of trades.


As regards your comments re GU above. In the 4H you refer to, it may look like PA is going to bounce off the 200MA, but it hasn't yet - trade what you see, not what you expect. Also the yellow TDI is in a clear uptrend, making it higher risk.

Then go down to the 1H, price has been bobbling around the 200MA since 11 July, has shot up on news today, but at present appears to be meeting resistance at the 800MA having just formed a weak pinbar under it. The 1H, also is displaying an uptrend in the yellow and red TDI, with green being potentially overbought. Rewards could be there if shorting under the 800MA, but too much risk in my view and certainly not within Arjun's classic playbook.

Finally, whilst it is generally only used for final confirmation, look at the daily. Yesterday there was a bullish close over the 10EMA after making a higher low with a pinbar on Friday. Today, thanks to the news, it has made a higher high against the first break of the bearish trend on 10 July. Whilst it may be sitting under the 200MA, the points above coupled with red and green TDI's showing uptrends after crossing at the 32 level, means it would take a braver trader than me to short cable today.

Then back to the 15M, for experienced traders there looks like a shorting opportunity as a CT trade coming up soon, with green crossing red TDI in overbought territory and a bearish engulf at the top of todays upward trend, but I'm sticking to basic with rules set ups for now.

By way of example, UJ right now. Green has crossed red and yellow TDI and closed above the 10EMA in 4H. Just closed above 200MA in a clear TDI uptrend in 1H. Daily not so clear cut, but appears that PA now sitting above the 10EMA, with green TDI ticking upwards to cross red.

Entry oppertunities were at the close of the last two candles in the 15M. Had you taken the 14.30 close (Alpari UK, GMT +2 time) you'd have already bagged 15-18 pips depending on spread etc.

This is the kind of analysis (I hope) that this thread advocates, rather than picking specific patterns that work etc.


Sorry for the lengthy response, but hopefully this will help you understand what we are trying to teach each other.
Getting there, slowly but surely...
  • #21,846
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:45am Jul 17, 2013 7:45am
Quoting Edlich
. This is the kind of analysis (I hope) that this thread advocates, rather than picking specific patterns that work etc. Sorry for the lengthy response, but hopefully this will help you understand what we are trying to teach each other.
I like this
just one little fact more UJ bearish divergency was observed on M15, sugesting comming news might push price down...
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,847
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:56am Jul 17, 2013 7:56am
i'm very emotional to take this trade.
no trend, no TDI, just emotional.. I thinks

http://charts.mql5.com/2/57/gbpusd-m...arkets-ltd.png
TRy my best to learn
  • #21,848
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:01am Jul 17, 2013 8:01am
Quoting thaihoc
i'm very emotional to take this trade. no trend, no TDI, just emotional.. I thinks {image}
Well there is an Price Action, brake of last High, with big momentum, just "folling knife" was caught...
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,849
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:13am Jul 17, 2013 8:13am
Quoting Jackub
{quote} Well there is an Price Action, brake of last High, with big momentum, just "folling knife" was caught...

I think it affect by news. its bad news for USD. so the price up very fast ?
TRy my best to learn
  • #21,850
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:17am Jul 17, 2013 8:17am
My weekly target 100 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdm15_2.png Size: 41 KB
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,851
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:21am Jul 17, 2013 8:21am
Quoting Jackub
My weekly target 100 pips {image}
That's delicious. I have to try hard. try hard. try hard. 1 more year i could have the same your trade results.

so amired you Juckup
TRy my best to learn
  • #21,852
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:25am Jul 17, 2013 8:25am
Quoting thaihoc
{quote} That's delicious. I have to try hard. try hard. try hard. 1 more year i could have the same your trade results. so amired you Juckup
with help news....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 3 KB
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,853
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:53am Jul 17, 2013 8:53am
Super Juckub,

Cant believe i am in 30s and still cant follow rules. Did well for 2 weeks then the losing impulsive mindset came in. Lost all the profts and then some.
No wonder in market wizards all the super traders worked under someone before, must have gotten discipline drilled into them.
Yellow line is up, still took short, Yellow line is down took long, knowing this is against the rules. How can I stop this? Why do I do this?
  • #21,854
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:00am Jul 17, 2013 9:00am
Quoting explor359
Super Juckub, Cant believe i am in 30s and still cant follow rules. Did well for 2 weeks then the losing impulsive mindset came in. Lost all the profts and then some. No wonder in market wizards all the super traders worked under someone before, must have gotten discipline drilled into them. Yellow line is up, still took short, Yellow line is down took long, knowing this is against the rules. How can I stop this? Why do I do this?
HI, I am not completly free from problems you have, my friend, and I do suffer as well lack of discipline, I do have bad weeks and good weeks and still I am working on mmindset. Waiting for THE DAY when will control myself with in 95% patiently ....
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,855
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:16am Jul 17, 2013 9:16am
Quoting explor359
Super Juckub, Cant believe i am in 30s and still cant follow rules. Did well for 2 weeks then the losing impulsive mindset came in. Lost all the profts and then some. No wonder in market wizards all the super traders worked under someone before, must have gotten discipline drilled into them. Yellow line is up, still took short, Yellow line is down took long, knowing this is against the rules. How can I stop this? Why do I do this?
Did you watched this...?? Milion Dollars Traders... BBC movie?
Inserted Video

I think everyone scould see this....
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,856
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:21am Jul 17, 2013 9:21am
Quoting Jackub
{quote} HI, I am not completly free from problems you have, my friend, and I do suffer as well lack of discipline, I do have bad weeks and good weeks and still I am working on mmindset. Waiting for THE DAY when will control myself with in 95% patiently ....
Thanks Jack.

Issues I have are trades running away, I will be watching a set-up by the time everything lines up trade runs away far from the 10ema. Then cause i missed that one I think I was right, then I take few impulsive losers before I stop.

There are so many things to look at SR, RN, HTFs, MAs, this and that, by the time you check everything bird flies away.
I know lot of experienced traders have explained here to look at HTFs, but what procedure do you guys follow?
What is the hour by hour procedure during the trading session?
Do you check HTFs before every trade?
On your MT4 do you have 4 M15 charts open or do you have eg. one pair with 15m, 1h, 4h, d charts and you switch between pairs to see the set-ups?
Do you use any written check lists of rules?

Sorry lot of questions, but I am sure there are others in same boat as me.
  • #21,857
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:32am Jul 17, 2013 9:32am
Quoting explor359
{quote} Thanks Jack. Issues I have are trades running away, I will be watching a set-up by the time everything lines up trade runs away far from the 10ema. Then cause i missed that one I think I was right, then I take few impulsive losers before I stop. There are so many things to look at SR, RN, HTFs, MAs, this and that, by the time you check everything bird flies away. I know lot of experienced traders have explained here to look at HTFs, but what procedure do you guys follow? What is the hour by hour procedure during the trading session?...
Will come back to your questions little later on, if you don't mind, I need some time to put all this together and make kind a check list...?
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #21,858
  • Jul 17, 2013 9:39am Jul 17, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Jackub
{quote} Will come back to your questions little later on, if you don't mind, I need some time to put all this together and make kind a check list...?
No problem Jack, take your time.
Thanks for your help.


And I have seen the traders video a while back, will be watching again.
  • #21,859
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:32am Jul 17, 2013 10:32am
Quoting explor359
{quote} I know lot of experienced traders have explained here to look at HTFs, but what procedure do you guys follow? What is the hour by hour procedure during the trading session? Do you check HTFs before every trade? On your MT4 do you have 4 M15 charts open or do you have eg. one pair with 15m, 1h, 4h, d charts and you switch between pairs to see the set-ups? Do you use any written check lists of rules? Sorry lot of questions, but I am sure there are others in same boat as me.
explor359 - I have yet to experience the consistency that Jackub seems to be getting, but for me personally, i keep 15 minute charts on my screen, then if a set up looks like it's forming, i spend alot of the 15 minutes before the close of the trigger candle, looking at other TF's, and looking left on the charts for S/R etc. If I can see no barriers to the trade, i click back in to the 15M tf and enter on the close of the candle if it closes as the set up candle it first presented as. it is difficult if there are say 2 or 3 USD pairs forming set ups. If I can't devote enough time to analyse all of them, I'll pick the most promising one from my initial review of the 15M tf's.

The key to it is discipline, if a higher TF says doesn't confirm the signal I'll leave it (or at least that is what I am training myself to do!). If watching a few pairs there will rarely be a day where there are not two or three good classic set ups to earn 15-20 pips, if that can be acheived consistently ...... well we've all done our own compound growth spreadsheet haven't we!

I just need to be more disciplined in picking the peaches rather than taking so many of the maybe's.

Cheers
Getting there, slowly but surely...
  • #21,860
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:39am Jul 17, 2013 10:39am
Quoting explor359
{quote} Thanks Jack. Issues I have are trades running away, I will be watching a set-up by the time everything lines up trade runs away far from the 10ema. Then cause i missed that one I think I was right, then I take few impulsive losers before I stop.
First question answer....

Yesss, this is a syndrome I am calling "one candle to late…" it happens to me permanently, you see more clearly , when situation is building up, and finally is to late to enter, this is because you are waiting , candle by candle what will happen, accidently, not for something you expect will happen.

I am waiting now for this candle is closing over 10 EMA because it is last condition to be met according my trading plan and it happen, and I am entering… that’s all. But what if I have doubt?? I am not entering,. But trade went out fantastic… so what? there will be another one, hundreds of them…

Most of traders are doing everything in opposite way, they should. Doing your analyze I expect the price will do this and this, and if price will do, have no problem to enter, if I am waiting what price will do and then react, in most cases is to late… Imulsive trades… yes it is also difficult for me, million ideas are crossing my mind, and when are crossing, my brain is so busy, that cannot recall special rule "DO NOT MAKE STUPID ENTERIS"


I have big poster in my room with huge size letters saying "DO NOT MAKE STUPID ENTERIS" sometimes helps… will continue
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
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