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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #1,641
  • Jul 17, 2013 5:43am Jul 17, 2013 5:43am
Quoting Forexcube
USDINR seems for me an aspect for going short longer term. 1st reason: EWP (http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/...principle.html) seems at 5 and it could be time fo a correction. 2nd reason: positive interests when going short (carry trade). actual DR1 @ 59.57 The rest seems to play a correct money management. FXcube

Cube in da house!!! :-)

What a surprise. Hope all is running well. Have missed your postings lately in your threads

Will put the link into my blog roll of my Forex blog - thank you for that


Hmm, both of my brokers, Duka and FXCM have no USDINR. Found a chart at GCI


What I see is, that on weekly TF the last impulse up from the 53,63 low came out of a triangle.

So the actual impulse up should be the final one.


Question is: is impulse over or not?


Hard to say. As often, the trust out of a triangle is sharp. So they often come with no very clear substructure.


I would not be surprised, when we right now only would develop a subwave 4 of 5.

On daily TF the structure of the recnt move down looks like a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, but that can be a corrective move also.



But overall, with apropriate money management, this may play out very good


62,50 may be a very safe target to short, if you are not willing to take the bet, yet
  • #1,642
  • Jul 17, 2013 5:51am Jul 17, 2013 5:51am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Wouldn't that be 365/4, or 91.25 days? Or is that one fourth of the number of trading days in a year?
Oh, the number of working days per year is different. But we can get something like this:
52 x 5 = 260 or 365 - 52x2 = 261
But the exchange is non-working days such as Christmas and New Year, 14 July
Murrey accepts the year has 256 days = 4 x 64.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,643
  • Edited 6:02am Jul 17, 2013 5:52am | Edited 6:02am

theDHT view (EJ):


On the zoomed out chart,Bearish Gartley appears to be playing out

the max target would be around 131.8 which would be a perfect termination point, fibs are well clustered here...

however, on zoomed in chart, we can see that a 78.6% retrace of the recent swing implies that the upside target @ 127% has been achieved, and there is a momentum divergence...

I remain bearish, T1 is the 127% external price extension of the major swing, at c123 (this is also another fib cluster and should provide decent support)


chart1: Bearish Gartley

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Bearish Gartley.png Size: 96 KB


chart2: Divergences 101

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Gartley Zoomed.png Size: 57 KB


note: 4181 tick charts (timing is not shown)

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #1,644
  • Jul 17, 2013 5:53am Jul 17, 2013 5:53am
Quoting godim
{quote} Oh, the number of working days per year is different. But we can get something like this: 52 x 5 = 260 or 365 - 52x2 = 261 But the exchange is non-working days such as Christmas and New Year, 14 July Murrey accepts the year has 256 days = 4 x 64.
http://bonniehill.net/pages.aux/murr...thquarter.html
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,645
  • Jul 17, 2013 5:59am Jul 17, 2013 5:59am
Quoting Forexcube
USDINR, Weekly, 2013 July 17 USDINR seems for me an aspect for going short longer term. 1st reason: EWP seems at 5 and it could be time fo a correction. 2nd reason: positive interests when going short (carry trade). actual DR1 @ 59.57 The rest seems to execute a correct money management. (While it's for me a longer term investment I have built up an extra account only for this currency pair. Expected win: 50% this year). FXcube ___ (http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/...principle.html) {image}

let us try the following count:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDINR,Weekly.png Size: 59 KB



since wave 3 is only (to the pip or so) 100% of wave 1, we have a fairly good chance, that a wave 5 may extend. Becase nearly every time you have one of the 3 impulses extended

If that is true, wave 5 may end beyond of 73
  • #1,646
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:03am Jul 17, 2013 6:03am
Quoting godim
{quote} Ultimately EWA. OK I was talking about the 200 EMA. 200 × 4/24 = 33.33 days. Why 33 and one third?

Hahaha, that is Godim as we know him - asking taff questions


Have to read Gann stuff on weekend, otherwise my answers will look stupid
  • #1,647
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:04am Jul 17, 2013 6:04am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Godim, looking at how the waves have created since the down move started at 1.63 combined with a break of the 4 year triangle tells the story. The area you highlighted is the end of the A-B-C wave 2 correction that ran from 14830-15750 and the wave 3 that started with 3 strong bear candles (3 black crows). Price is currently either doing a 50% or a 61.8% retracement of that for a sub wave 2. Currently, my target is 1.42 A weekly close over 1.54 would force me to reanalyze this scenario.

Nice EW analysis
  • #1,648
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:08am Jul 17, 2013 6:08am
Quoting godim
{quote} I, for example, for use MurreyMath with 384 bars. 384 × 4/24 = 64 days. Or one quarter or one fourth year.

I do my MM with 32 periods. We already talked in the past about it. If you trade more loner swings, 64 is the place to look

If you do trade a lot in the 1-5min, I would recommend the 16 period, since you get many good signals. But speed comes with a burden: you will often see Octave jumps
  • #1,649
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:12am Jul 17, 2013 6:12am
Quoting Forexcube
USDINR, Weekly, 2013 July 17 USDINR seems for me an aspect for going short longer term. 1st reason: EWP seems at 5 and it could be time fo a correction. 2nd reason: positive interests when going short (carry trade). actual DR1 @ 59.57 The rest seems to execute a correct money management. (While it's for me a longer term investment I have built up an extra account only for this currency pair. Expected win: 50% this year). FXcube ___ (http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/...principle.html) {image}

Take a look at Ramkis blog regarding INR

Ramki is one of the very good EW traders


Pity is: his count of UI is from last year


http://www.wavetimes.com/elliott-wav...ndian-rupee-2/
  • #1,650
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:57am Jul 17, 2013 6:57am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote}.... Currently, my target is 1.42 A weekly close over 1.54 would force me to reanalyze this scenario.
Does this mean that you sell with stop loss above 1.54? If scenario wrong?
Why ask? You're talking about levels that can occur after weeks and months. I'm interested in how trading these levels.
Some here traded on the M5 or M1, others on a daily chart. You traded directly on the monthly chart?
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,651
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:10am Jul 17, 2013 7:10am
Quoting godim
{quote} Does this mean that you sell with stop loss above 1.54? If scenario wrong? Why ask? You're talking about levels that can occur after weeks and months. I'm interested in how trading these levels. Some here traded on the M5 or M1, others on a daily chart. You traded directly on the monthly chart?
Yes, I'm swing trading cable on the weekly/monthly. If you are interested in trading these levels, now is a great time to enter. All it requires is not over leveraging and having enough patience. I've provided the longer term analysis. The problem is shorter term traders always over think things and find a reason to get out of the trade rather than letting it develop. It requires a very different mental approach.

I don't follow any set rules about which time frame to trade from. Wherever I see an opportunity is what I trade from. But my tendency is to use EW analysis on daily charts and longer and shorter term trading decisions I use momentum analysis, fibos and candlestick patterns.
  • #1,652
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:23am Jul 17, 2013 7:23am
The text of Benny's opening statement for his semi-annual testimony in front of the congressional financial services committee will be published at this site in 10 minutes (8:30 New York) (13:30 London)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...3testimony.htm
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,653
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:30am Jul 17, 2013 7:30am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Yes, I'm swing trading cable on the weekly/monthly. If you are interested in trading these levels, now is a great time to enter. All it requires is not over leveraging and having enough patience. I've provided the longer term analysis. The problem is shorter term traders always over think things and find a reason to get out of the trade rather than letting it develop. It requires a very different mental approach. I don't follow any set rules about which time frame to trade from. Wherever I see an opportunity is what I trade from. But...
Thus, it is now much easier. We know already that for you.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,654
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:31am Jul 17, 2013 7:31am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Cube in da house!!! :-) Have missed your postings lately in your threads
Post# 1,683

I have closen all my threads during summer time.
I have sent you a PM!
Best wishes from Switzerland!
FXcube
  • #1,655
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:40am Jul 17, 2013 7:40am
And if the subsequent data continued to confirm this pattern of ongoing economic improvement and normalizing inflation, we expected to continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending them around midyear.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20130717a.htm
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #1,656
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:44am Jul 17, 2013 7:44am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} let us try the following count: {image} since wave 3 is only (to the pip or so) 100% of wave 1, we have a fairly good chance, that a wave 5 may extend. Becase nearly every time you have one of the 3 impulses extended If that is true, wave 5 may end beyond of 73

  1. Post# 1,689

Interesting aspect! Thank you for your interpretation, infinitus!
I like different views so much!

I have taken and take the risk over with some Shorts yet.
@ 61 was my first short, @ 60 my 2nd one and @ 59.55 the third one today by setting a SL 60.90 over weekly's high 60.817 from 2013.06.23 (three weeks ago). In this way I have not much to lose.
FXcube

  • #1,657
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:47am Jul 17, 2013 7:47am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} Post# 1,689Interesting aspect! Thank you for your interpretation, infinitus! I like different views so much! I have taken and take the risk over with some Shorts yet. @ 61 was my first short, @ 60 my 2nd one and @ 59.55 the third one today by setting a SL 60.90 over weekly's high 60.817 from 2013.06.23 (three weeks ago). In this way I have not much to lose. FXcube

Thanks FC,

will answer you later...... :-)
  • #1,658
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:53am Jul 17, 2013 7:53am
5272 after 10 minutes. And then a few more resistances. Do you think today will attack the target? However, today's bar is almost 200 pips?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 91 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,659
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:53am Jul 17, 2013 7:53am
Gold looking very ripe for a sell off here.
  • #1,660
  • Jul 17, 2013 7:59am Jul 17, 2013 7:59am
maybe Gold on 4h TF build a triangle, and we are now in the thrust out of it. 5min TF has 5 waves up, so the top may be in



Quoting BoringIsGood
Gold looking very ripe for a sell off here.
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