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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #321
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:56am Jul 17, 2013 4:56am
I trade 1 hour SFPs and rounded retests.

Based on the daily chart, and if you could trade futures, at which daily bar would you have entered? I guess you would not have gone short at the 1st test of the HHR as you would have likely got stopped out on day 2. Is there a reason not to enter at the end of day 1? Is it because the wick of the daily candle isn't long enough?

In day 2 price tested above the HHR again and found sellers. Would this be the sign to go short? Would your sell order would be placed close to HHR level?


PS: car yes, yacht no.
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  • #322
  • Edited 8:37pm Jul 17, 2013 7:33pm | Edited 8:37pm
EG looks like it doesn't really know which way to go.
This is not a setup I am looking at because of the severe lack of space to the FTA.
Just trying to get a hint from the bars as to what will go down here.
We now have a BEOB going straight into the PPZ.
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  • #323
  • Edited 9:57am Jul 18, 2013 2:46am | Edited 9:57am
I am liking the looks of this.
Maybe Ghous will like this area also?

The swing point is not very big, that what it has going against it however, it is a long term PPZ with the 4.8500 RN, the 61.8 fibo & the TL.

Let's see what happens.

EDIT: Removed the orders as, we can not know if this is going to be a fake out, till we get the bar close.
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  • #324
  • Jul 18, 2013 12:23pm Jul 18, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting Pinbar
EG looks like it doesn't really know which way to go. This is not a setup I am looking at because of the severe lack of space to the FTA. Just trying to get a hint from the bars as to what will go down here. We now have a BEOB going straight into the PPZ. {image}
Hello Pinbar!

I'm not sure if I get your post 100% so let me tell you what I understood.
Every time we get an SFP Bar (a bar that exceeds the former high but fails to close above it.) it becomes the new HHR?
What is PCA SFP? - you meant price closes above the old sfp level but it couldn't close above the new HHR?

Sorry for the stupid question but i just wanna make sure i dont misunderstand anything

Cheers,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #325
  • Jul 18, 2013 1:38pm Jul 18, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting ghous
This one's on my radar. 12.6 RN + Long term PPZ + fake out. g. {image}
This one had the confluence factors that get me excited always, but I guess the lack of space above due to the lower range of the consolidation box plus the 150 EMA killed this one.



g.
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I believe . . .
  • #326
  • Jul 18, 2013 1:42pm Jul 18, 2013 1:42pm
Been away from the markets and forums for a while and just saw this. Will definitely be reading and chiming in from time to time.
  • #327
  • Edited 2:28pm Jul 18, 2013 2:10pm | Edited 2:28pm
Quoting kl1968
I trade 1 hour SFPs and rounded retests. Based on the daily chart, and if you could trade futures, at which daily bar would you have entered? I guess you would not have gone short at the 1st test of the HHR as you would have likely got stopped out on day 2. Is there a reason not to enter at the end of day 1? Is it because the wick of the daily candle isn't long enough? In day 2 price tested above the HHR again and found sellers. Would this be the sign to go short? Would your sell order would be placed close to HHR level? PS: car yes, yacht no. {image}...
There is a reason to not enter on Day 1. You are right. Its because the length of the wick is just simply not long enough and while we do have a rejection the fake out bar still has closed relatively strongly with a small wick. Not enough information to create a strong enough bias to pull the trigger.

I would have entered on bar 3/4. This is when we had strong rejection off the HHR (decisive rejection) on bar 2 and the next two bars pulled back to the HHR. The stop would have been above the fake out bar high.

As mentioned previously The 105 level was always going to be crucial. Notice the rejection off it. BANG! A BE, Minor loss, minor profit - all acceptable. A full bar loss?

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #328
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:25pm Jul 18, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting Pinbar
I am liking the looks of this. Maybe Ghous will like this area also? The swing point is not very big, that what it has going against it however, it is a long term PPZ with the 4.8500 RN, the 61.8 fibo & the TL. Let's see what happens. EDIT: Removed the orders as, we can not know if this is going to be a fake out, till we get the bar close. {image} {image} {image}
We had the fake out off the level (double bar fake out) and the very next bar pulled back to your level before taking off.

I don't look for entering trades on second pull backs (where they have time and space in between)

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #329
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:26pm Jul 18, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting Donkey
Been away from the markets and forums for a while and just saw this. Will definitely be reading and chiming in from time to time.
Wow!

It would thrilling to have you on board D

Can't wait to see those charts from you

g.
I believe . . .
  • #330
  • Jul 18, 2013 5:02pm Jul 18, 2013 5:02pm
check it out
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  • #331
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:23pm Jul 18, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Hello Pinbar! I'm not sure if I get your post 100% so let me tell you what I understood. Every time we get an SFP Bar (a bar that exceeds the former high but fails to close above it.) it becomes the new HHR? What is PCA SFP? - you meant price closes above the old sfp level but it couldn't close above the new HHR? Sorry for the stupid question but i just wanna make sure i dont misunderstand anything Cheers, Stephen

I do not think that the fake out bar low, which is always lower than the LLS or higher than the HHR is the "New HHR or LLS".
Take a look at the chart about entry on a Long that Ghous posted and note he explains that if the fake out bar closes considerably above or below LLS or HHR, he will enter on an order placed near the HHR or LLS to get in close to the HHR or LLS.

He even says as much, on the chart, "Fake out bar closes way above the LLS"

If it was, there would NEVER be an entry to have, would there now?


Entry:

Where price closes just within the HHR/LLS I prefer to enter on the close and where price travels more then that (for instance price closing way under an HHR for a short setup) I place a pending order just under the HHR in a hope of a pull back to the HHR before price continues to drop (happens a lot). Either ways the idea is to always execute entries near and around your HHR/LLS levels and never too far from them. This makes sure you get an entry nearer to the "source" and enjoy a good R:R as well as leverage the maximum available space for the trade to breathe in.
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  • #332
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:25pm Jul 18, 2013 8:25pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} We had the fake out off the level (double bar fake out) and the very next bar pulled back to your level before taking off. I don't look for entering trades on second pull backs (where they have time and space in between) g. {image}

Thanks Ghous

Now I know to ignore the STB to the level.
  • #333
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:50pm Jul 18, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Wow! It would thrilling to have you on board D Can't wait to see those charts from you g.

Here's how I'm using jarroo's stuff playing the weekly EUrAUd BUOB, which closed above 2 weekly HCRs. I like to use 4H to target retrace entries and stop positions for daily and weekly closes above/below their respective HCR/LCS levels. This one didn't move away from the level as much as I would like, but I will check in at LO and make a decision on whether to sit tight, reduce risk or close out.

Weekly level and PA
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4H entry and stop placement
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  • #334
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:22pm Jul 18, 2013 9:22pm
Donkey, great to see you here.

Interesting take you have with the HCR2 there.

I am assuming you are using this to verify a continuation setup?

As in the Weekly BUEOB.
  • #335
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:40pm Jul 18, 2013 9:40pm
This was a nice pullback to the level.
However, the 1 pip close below the HHR would have concerned me.
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  • #336
  • Jul 18, 2013 10:15pm Jul 18, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting Pinbar
Donkey, great to see you here. Interesting take you have with the HCR2 there. I am assuming you are using this to verify a continuation setup? As in the Weekly BUEOB.
Thanks pin. Yes I use HCR/LCS levels in confluence as a sign of a higher probability set up - in this case a continuation. When the bar closes above the highs associated with the HCRs or below the lows of the LCSs, I see that as a sign of strength.

Here is an example of a PBTCA a daily HCR with no other confluence...I would not trade this live but I do like watching what happens in real time.

Daily chart - close above the level, but not the high (HHR in ghous's method I think)
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4hr - identifying entry, stops, and targets
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  • #337
  • Edited 10:45pm Jul 18, 2013 10:33pm | Edited 10:45pm
Quoting Donkey
{quote} Thanks pin. Yes I use HCR/LCS levels in confluence as a sign of a higher probability set up - in this case a continuation. When the bar closes above the highs associated with the HCRs or below the lows of the LCSs, I see that as a sign of strength. Here is an example of a PBTCA a daily HCR with no other confluence...I would not trade this live but I do like watching what happens in real time. Daily chart - close above the level, but not the high (HHR in ghous's method I think) {image} 4hr - identifying entry, stops, and targets {image}

Synchronicity again, LOL

I am in it and almost at TP.

Yeah, I hear you D and totally agree that the HCR combined with the HHR in these swing points, add that extra edge to these setups both in terms of clarity and possibly momentum. That said, I was thinking the other day that, there are going to be more people that are aware of a HHR than a HCR as, the HCR on a weekly TF is not always going to be visible on a Daily chart or lower tf. Whereas, the HHR will be visible. If you see what I mean.

Just took full profit off the short.
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  • #338
  • Jul 18, 2013 10:49pm Jul 18, 2013 10:49pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Synchronicity again, LOL I am in it and almost at TP. {image}
Very nice....are you in as an SFP setup? Would be interested in hearing your trade reasoning here.

When I look at PBTCA/B with no other confluence there's usually a 50/50 chance on if it will work or not, which is why I like the multiples lining up, EURAUD.

Although I like to trade the first time back to the level after the close above, it's abit more risky as per jarroo's teachings, the level is not confirmed as an s/r flip until the bar after the breakthrough bar closes and confirms the flip.

sorry to ramble a bit.
  • #339
  • Jul 18, 2013 10:57pm Jul 18, 2013 10:57pm
Quoting Donkey
{quote} Very nice....are you in as an SFP setup? Would be interested in hearing your trade reasoning here. When I look at PBTCA/B with no other confluence there's usually a 50/50 chance on if it will work or not, which is why I like the multiples lining up, EURAUD. Although I like to trade the first time back to the level after the close above, it's abit more risky as per jarroo's teachings, the level is not confirmed as an s/r flip until the bar after the breakthrough bar closes and confirms the flip. sorry to ramble a bit.

You are not rambling at all D, this kind of discussion is what this thread is all about.

Not really an SFP, more a ghous fake out.

I was not going to hold this for long.
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  • #340
  • Jul 18, 2013 11:15pm Jul 18, 2013 11:15pm
Donkey, I think we are on a similar page here.

I know, you know what I am talking about, the diagram is for people who do not know.
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