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Could this be an easy way to win in forex?

  • #41
  • Jul 16, 2013 8:47pm Jul 16, 2013 8:47pm
Quoting Ishtana
The worst trading method/strategy/indicator/EA + a proper money management skill = the easiest way to win in forex. .
Hello Ishtana. I dare say that your idea has been thought of before. Believe me, it has.

I'm just wondering if your time wouldn't be better spent trying to find a method/system
that produces positive results and suits your own style. Better yet, find a method and
nurture it...... until you "understand" it. Or disregard it if it sucks.

That's frustrating of course...... such is forex.

The most difficult part may be in believing in a method once you "understand" it.

You're an intelligent person......... should you try and "reinvent the wheel".
or "go with the flow"

I don't know the answer (but you do).

all the best
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #42
  • Edited 11:54pm Jul 16, 2013 10:54pm | Edited 11:54pm
Guys, I really appreciate all of your responses. They all make perfect sense. I never claimed originality of this idea, I just found a new angle on an old idea.

In everything in my life, I just don't want to give up until I know something is no longer worth pursuing. If I stop at first difficulty, first naysayer, then I'm a loser.

I purposefully train myself to think outside the box, and it doesn't mean this practice is always useful. But I would rather spend my life doing something and not regretting anything, than playing safe doing nothing and regretting everything.

Have a look at the pic. EU this month 1H chart + standard Stoch setting

Almost all systems that use stochastic indicator advocate the term overbought at 80 and oversold at 20. You're supposed to open a sell in the 80+ area and open a buy in the 20- area. If you apply the opposite rule + 10 TP & 20 SL (this is just an arbitrary pick of MM setting, not a thoroughly researched MM setting), you would have 75% winning rate just this month alone. The candle may look small, but if you respond to each signal you would have 10 pips gain on every winning trade and 20 pips loss on every losing trade. This month alone, if you follow this system, you would've made (12*10) - (20*4) = 40 pips, knowing absolutely nothing about forex, paying nothing on any scam product, and doing nothing if you set this up as an EA.

This idea is so contrary to what you've been taught all these times. Of course it's not gonna be comfortable. And mind you this idea has not been matched up with other techniques of MM like hedging, martingale, scaling in, etc. We're barely scratching the surface.

@kateeus: MA crossover system is too sophisticated for this purpose. The banks and the professionals use them. Besides, you're using 1:1 RR. In theory, it should be less because it is a flip of the original system, and again in theory, people want to have more than 1:1 RR.

@Slim Buffett: I already found a winning system. But I would never stop learning and discovering.
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  • #43
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:55pm Jul 16, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting vox dei
X 2 Read Hannover's posts on the subject! Having proper money management skills without a proper edge, simply means you'll take longer to lose all your account balance. Death by a thousand cuts instead of the typical supernova account blowup. Also 99.9% of the time, you cannot turn a losing system into a winning one by reversing things like buy/sell or tp/sl, as most of those systems generate nothing but random signals. Think about it! Does it make any sense reversing random signals, or their tp/sl for that matter? The chances you find an ANTI-HOLY...
Quoting Wanderer272
It is incredibly difficult to find a statistical edge of more than 50% in the long term. I have spent countless hours researching this. It is basically impossible to create a system that loses 80% of the time with a 2:1 R/R - long term. That will basically mean that you can predict the inverse of the market with 80% accuracy. You will learn much on the journey however...
  • #44
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:21pm Jul 16, 2013 11:21pm
grit is the most important factor to be a successful trader
Everything in the world has its own rhytms
  • #45
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:32pm Jul 16, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting Ishtana
In everything in my life, I just don't want to give up until I know something is no longer worth pursuing. If I stop at first difficulty, first naysayer, then I'm a loser. I purposefully train myself to think outside the box, and it doesn't mean this practice is always useful. But I would rather spend my life doing something and not regretting anything, than playing safe doing nothing and regretting everything. {image}
I think that's VERY admirable. In fact... extremely so. (I don't know where that SB quote came from

though. I'm demented sometimes)

It IS true that if you want to think outside the box then disregard the 2x2's and Hanover's
Think for yourself (as you've obviously done) and you WILL benefit.

However..... since you posted a chart.... let me relate an experience that has to do with
following your method

I shorted GBP/AUD Monday AM.... watched it bounce around all day and when it made a few
pip higher move (than I had planned) I got out for a small loss. As you can see though, had I held
the short I would have made shitloads of money.

I didn't follow my method and if you read between the (two black lines)
you'll see whatI mean
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When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #46
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:46pm Jul 16, 2013 11:46pm
Quoting Ishtana
. In everything in my life, I just don't want to give up until I know something is no longer worth pursuing. If I stop at first difficulty, first naysayer, then I'm a loser. I purposefully train myself to think outside the box, and it doesn't mean this practice is always useful. But I would rather spend my life doing something and not regretting anything, than playing safe doing nothing and regretting everything. . {image}
ha... It's the Aussie way!

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Time hides Nothing
  • #47
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:55pm Jul 16, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} ha... It's the Aussie way! {image}
Nuh mate, the Aussie way is more like Tall Poppy Syndrome. People would diss you if you're trying to be ahead of them. They will remind you of your past failures and mistakes. Well unless you bring along the whole mob with you.
  • #48
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:56pm Jul 16, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} what I mean {image}
BTW..... the "grid" (blue/white) represents 37 pips
and has to do with my own MM

just thought I'd mention that
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #49
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:51am Jul 17, 2013 1:51am
Hi Ishtana,

Already did that when developing losing systems, I inverted the logic but they remained losing systems.

With my humble experience, I would say that it's better develop a system, even a bad one and then understand its losing nature and fine-tune it to try to correct that or even take profit from that...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #50
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:54am Jul 17, 2013 1:54am
Quoting Ishtana
@Mingary: I don't understand what you're saying.
How to extract money from any financial market via speculation is a problem with no solution.

==> Except for the one and only parameter that can be controlled, how much to bet, how much to risk.
  • #51
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:10am Jul 17, 2013 2:10am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} How to extract money from any financial market via speculation is a problem with no solution.

Ludicrous.... but maybe it depends on what you mean...... "via speculation".


Quoting Mingary
{quote}==> Except for the one and only parameter that can be controlled, how much to bet, how much to risk.

Your example there has nothing to do with anything at all. Possibly though,
to always stay the same.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #52
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:16am Jul 17, 2013 2:16am
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Ludicrous.... but maybe it depends on what you mean...... "via speculation". {quote} Your example there has nothing to do with anything at all. Possibly though, to always stay the same.
1) Speculation = trading
2) yes, it does.
  • #53
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:28am Jul 17, 2013 2:28am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} 1) Speculation = trading 2) yes, it does.

Of course. !!!!

Which is NOT the same as "a problem with no solution".

Make up your mind. If there IS NO SOLUTION then WHY would you
SPECULATE ????????????
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #54
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:32am Jul 17, 2013 2:32am
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Of course. !!!! Which is NOT the same as "a problem with no solution". Make up your mind. If there IS NO SOLUTION then WHY would you SPECULATE ????????????
OR would that simply be called
gambling.

No solution...... I'll throw in the chips anyway.....
I just might win something


Maybe the odds are just as great............ right????
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #55
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:38am Jul 17, 2013 2:38am
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} OR would that simply be called gambling. No solution...... I'll throw in the chips anyway..... I just might win something Maybe the odds are just as great............ right????
No solution with some sort of system.
Except how much to bet, how much to risk
I guess that is a system, I will give you that.
  • #56
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:50am Jul 17, 2013 2:50am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} No solution with some sort of system. Except how much to bet, how much to risk I guess that is a system, I will give you that.
It's obvious that you don't understand much of anything.

Not even the words that you (yourself) have spoken.

"always stay the same." - Mingary

I find that odd.... but I know you'll never get that.

that's ok
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #57
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:21am Jul 17, 2013 4:21am
Crazy how quickly this kind of threads can grow...

Gumrai spent some time explaining it cannot work. He's right. Here Ishtana, I propose you another way of looking at the issue: maths! I know people don't like maths because they give a definitive answer and the answer is often NO. People prefer Believing YES, they worship Holy Grail...

You're proposing simple binary outcome systems. Either you win TP or lose SL. You can change these variables to say you win R times your, now unit, risk. R is you R:R. A system is profitable in the long run if its expectency is strictly positive. In this simple case, the expectancy is E = (R + 1).p - 1 where p is the probability of winning, that's the win/loss ratio.

If you reverse the rules, you get the complement of the win/loss. p' = 1 - p and, up to the spread, you get the reciprocal of the R:R => R'= 1/R
The expectancy of the miror system is E' = (R' + 1).p' - 1 = (1/R + 1).(1-p) - 1

You can see in this formula that you transform a system which almost never wins into a system that wins very often but too few profits to cover the losses! Usually you get another losing system.

Let me quickly analyze your stochastic example. The rule "buy 20/sell 80" works great in ranges. When the market trends half the time you're against the trend the second half you take profit too early. You often win small in range and lose very big in the trends. Now if you revert the rules you get the opposite, you win big in the trends and lose very often in the ranges. Same problem than with MA crossover. Market ranges more than it trends and the balance keeps being negative.

During ranges the market is mainly anti-persistent. The strategy is to fade the moves as they are statistically followed by the opposite move.
During the trend the market is persistent, the strategy is to follow the move as it is statistically continuing.

One strat is the exact opposite of the other. You cannot win without evaluating correctly the persistent/anti-persistent behaviour of the market (aka is it trending or ranging). You cannot win if you want to be agnostic to the market condition by following blindly an oscillator for instance. The indi can perfectly tell you that you're at a low but it cannot tell if it is a higher low or a lower low.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #58
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:21am Jul 17, 2013 4:21am
Oh BTW, MM is NOT the key http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post6379487
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #59
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:38am Jul 17, 2013 4:38am
Quoting PipMeUp
Crazy how quickly this kind of threads can grow... Gumrai spent some time explaining it cannot work. He's right. Here Ishtana, I propose you another way of looking at the issue: maths! I know people don't like maths because they give a definitive answer and the answer is often NO. People prefer Believing YES, they worship Holy Grail... You're proposing simple binary outcome systems. Either you win TP or lose SL. You can change these variables to say you win R times your, now unit, risk. R is you R:R. A system is profitable in the long run if its...
I have a feeling he will not listen to your logic, one thing I must point out is and it looks like this is where you can tell the difference between traders and non traders is,, your trend can be within a range ie charts 1 hour,4 hours,daily,weekly,monthly,yearly and vice versa. be good and good maths
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:18am Jul 17, 2013 6:18am
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} It's obvious that you don't understand much of anything. Not even the words that you (yourself) have spoken. "always stay the same." - Mingary I find that odd.... but I know you'll never get that. that's ok
Of course it's Ok.

Please explain the meaning of your statement:

== >Not even the words that you (yourself) have spoken. "always stay the same."

What are you referring to?
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