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TCO Trader EA

  • #1,241
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:06am Jul 16, 2013 10:06am
Quote
TCO
Hi S3, that is not correct. I started with $10,000 balance for back testing. I used .01 per $1000 lot sizing, so my lot size initially was .10. Also, the totals at that bottom do not take in account if all pairs were traded together on the same account, were the lot size would have increased to .11 when the balance reached $11,000 and .12 when $12,000 and so on. So probably the $10,000 +/- profit would be more when taking into account the all the pairs. I wish mt4 would let you set up testing for all pairs at once. It would be nice to see the...

Thanks for that TCO. So am I right (approx.) in saying your test showed $10,000 turning into $20,000 in 18 months by risking 0.1% per trade (ie micro lot with 250 pips stop loss on average)?

Thanks.
John
  • #1,242
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:06am Jul 16, 2013 10:06am
Quoting alpine4133
I would be helpful to see the DD for each configuration on the spreadsheet.

A lot of things would be helpful. Winning % would also be helpful. I didn't want to spend 6 mos doing all the backtesting and recording all the results. Sorry. We are just looking for good indications of what works and what doesn't. For example, if you want to use Stoch, it would be a good indication at looking at the spreadsheet that the price method of close, seems to work better than low/high. We didn't know that 2 weeks ago. Did we really know that WPR is better for some trend methods and Stoch for other...no we didn't. Did we really know that all 4 trend methods seem to be profitable. That you can optimize the trend methods together and different combinations might be more profitiable on some pairs. Did we know that LWMA MA method seems to be a lot more profitable than EMA MA method. No we didn't. So.....a lot of things would be helpful, but it seems that some of this testing should already be helpful. If you think it would be helpful than please take on some of this testing and present some results. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
  • #1,243
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:20am Jul 16, 2013 10:20am
Quoting s3 signals
{quote} I hope so, his results would then surely be phenomenal!!
Yes, he is using micro lots.

Looking at the results in the first column of his spreadsheet (the MACD Adjustable, Selected Pairs), we see:

Worst result:
STOCH SMMA HIGH/LOW (No CON)
Profit: $3,764.95 (+37.65%)

Best result:
STOCH LWMA CLOSE (With CON)
Profit: $10,628.75 (+106.29%)

Since that is over an 18-month period, you must divide that return by 18 to get the possible monthly return. So the range of return between the worst and best methods is +2.09% to +5.91% per month, regardless of how much capital is in your account.

To many of you, I am guessing that you consider those types of results to be "chicken feed." However, if you understand the power of compounding, you will quickly see the potential in consistent returns of that amount. Obviously this is very conservative lot sizing, and you can ramp up the results by being more aggressive with your order sizes, but I am not sure that would be very wise. At the very least, increasing your lot size will probably give you ulcers during the periods of drawdown that will necessarily come. The key is to be consistent and conservative, and you will most likely be happy with the results in the end.

TF
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #1,244
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:22am Jul 16, 2013 10:22am
Quoting s3 signals
{quote} Thanks for that TCO. So am I right (approx.) in saying your test showed $10,000 turning into $20,000 in 18 months by risking 0.1% per trade (ie micro lot with 250 pips stop loss on average)? Thanks.
Yes that sounds reasonable. Please remember this is not a guarantee. This is back testing and not real life. There are no slam dunks. So please test and be conservative. Thanks!

One thing I also forgot to mention in the testing. I also used close on opposite signal. I didn't do any testing with that option turned off.

As far as optimization. I would consider these parms as possible optimization candidates to find the best combination for each pair. Just my guess. Not a guarantee.

To find trend method combinations you may get where they are all the same. That would indicate a strong method for that pair
Trend_Method_1 Start 1 Step 1 Stop 4
Trend_Method_2 Start 1 Step 1 Stop 4

and maybe

Trend_Method_3 Start 1 Step 1 Stop 4

Lower_TF_Meth Start 1 Step 1 Stop 2 <== to find if WPR or Stochastic is a better choice

MA_MAmethod Start 0 Step 1 Stop 3 <== if MA is a good Trend Method, this will help to determine what MA method works the best
MA_PriceMethod Start 0 Step 1 Stop 6 <== if MA is a good Trend Method, this will help to determine what Price method works the best

MACD_Method Start 1 Step 1 Stop 4 <== if MACD is a good Trend Method, this will help determine what MACD method works the best.

Stoch_MAmethod Start 0 Step 1 Stop 3 <== if Stochastic is the best signal method, this will help determine what MA method is best for Stochastic
Stoch_PriceMethod Start 0 Step 1 Stop 1 <== if Stochastic is the best signal method, this will help determine what Price method is best for Stochastic

Other thoughts, if I made the WPR confirmation an interger value of 1 for on and 0 for off then we could optimize that easier, the same asfor Stochastic confirmation.

If anyone else has some insights in the optimizing process, so that we don't curve fit, but find a robust profitable system. I'm all ears. Thanks!
  • #1,245
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:26am Jul 16, 2013 10:26am
Quote
Turtlefan
Yes, he is using micro lots.

I am happy with 4% - 5% a month. I was basically saying that I would risk about 15% of account in drawdown to get 4% a month if results were consistent. I did get my decimal point in the wrong place, but ended up at the same result from a risk perspective.

It's a shame we cannot get a handle on drawdown levels but, if reasonable, doubling an account in 18 months is commendable.

Thanks for clarification.
John
  • #1,246
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:31am Jul 16, 2013 10:31am
Quoting s3 signals
{quote} I am happy with 4% - 5% a month. I was basically saying that I would risk about 15% of account in drawdown to get 4% a month if results were consistent. I did get my decimal point in the wrong place, but ended up at the same result from a risk perspective. It's a shame we cannot get a handle on drawdown levels but, if reasonable, doubling an account in 18 months is commendable. Thanks for clarification.
So far, in my 2.5 months of testing, it has been reasonable (under 10%).

TF
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #1,247
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:08am Jul 16, 2013 11:08am
Quoting TallCoolOne
{quote} A lot of things would be helpful. Winning % would also be helpful. I didn't want to spend 6 mos doing all the backtesting and recording all the results. Sorry. We are just looking for good indications of what works and what doesn't. For example, if you want to use Stoch, it would be a good indication at looking at the spreadsheet that the price method of close, seems to work better than low/high. We didn't know that 2 weeks ago. Did we really know that WPR is better for some trend methods and Stoch for other...no we didn't. Did we really...
Sure, I understand and I will do some testing. I do have one question. Now more than before I like the MacD Adjustable. In the new EA you have some set up choices that I did not see on the spreadsheet. What MA was the MacD using, 1,2,3,4 in your test? Is see the settings for Stoch and WPR, but not for the options specifically for the adjustable MacD.
Gary
  • #1,248
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:08am Jul 16, 2013 11:08am
Hello,

first time I respond to You, you did a GREAT job.I never saw something (complex) like this before. It's all tooooooo technical for me but im using your 1.4 version on a $1000 account,trading the 6 pairs we all know (pips at 0.01) and I let it running,once a day i open that account and close all winning trades........my result after 10 days is $81 so almost 10%.Not bad at all for me....so thx again for sharing this great ea
raycoboy
  • #1,249
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:30am Jul 16, 2013 11:30am
Quoting alpine4133
{quote} Sure, I understand and I will do some testing. I do have one question. Now more than before I like the MacD Adjustable. In the new EA you have some set up choices that I did not see on the spreadsheet. What MA was the MacD using, 1,2,3,4 in your test? Is see the settings for Stoch and WPR, but not for the options specifically for the adjustable MacD.
Sorry, there is only 3 MACD methods, not 4. There are no MA methods for MACD.

1 - Adjustable, 2 - Hanover(corrected adjustable) 3 - Traditional MACD

To get Adjustable MACD, you would make these selections.

Trend_Method_1 = 3

MACD_Method = 1
  • #1,250
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:33am Jul 16, 2013 11:33am
Quoting raycoboy
Hello, first time I respond to You, you did a GREAT job.I never saw something (complex) like this before. It's all tooooooo technical for me but im using your 1.4 version on a $1000 account,trading the 6 pairs we all know (pips at 0.01) and I let it running,once a day i open that account and close all winning trades........my result after 10 days is $81 so almost 10%.Not bad at all for me....so thx again for sharing this great ea raycoboy

Hi Raycoboy, that is an interesting strategy also. What pairs are you testing and do you close all trades at end of day and then just turn on the EA again?

Nice to hear some new approaches. Thanks!
  • #1,251
  • Jul 16, 2013 12:11pm Jul 16, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting TallCoolOne
{quote} Sorry, there is only 3 MACD methods, not 4. There are no MA methods for MACD. 1 - Adjustable, 2 - Hanover(corrected adjustable) 3 - Traditional MACD To get Adjustable MACD, you would make these selections. Trend_Method_1 = 3 MACD_Method = 1
Did you have Weekly Confirmation on or all, or did you find it made any difference?
Gary
  • #1,252
  • Jul 16, 2013 12:18pm Jul 16, 2013 12:18pm
Im just trading the 6 "headpairs", and when I see I have profit I just close the trade.At the other hand,when a trade is negative,I just let it run.....and so far not one that was closed by the EA.Its also not so that I have many trades running (just one that opened today.....so its not a mess where i pick up only the good trades,just be patient....
greetings
raycoboy
  • #1,253
  • Jul 16, 2013 12:29pm Jul 16, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting alpine4133
{quote} Did you have Weekly Confirmation on or all, or did you find it made any difference?
Everytime I use weekly confirmation, it seems to make the results less profitable, or not profitable at all. So I don't use it.
  • #1,254
  • Jul 16, 2013 12:36pm Jul 16, 2013 12:36pm
Cool one, if your using the "weekly" you need a very strong trend otherwise (I guess you will have to wait a long time) but once it opens a trade you will have big profits
raycoboy
  • #1,255
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:12pm Jul 16, 2013 1:12pm
I do NOT close all trades TCO,just the + ones, the - trades (if there are)....i just let them run till they become+;than i close them (in the worst case your EA will close them for me) so my risks are much smaller and my profit bigger because 10 times $2 is also 20 no? mb you make the same 20 but I think you have to wait much longer and for example EURUSD i didnt saw a move for 350 pips last times (so far).I hope you understand what I mean TCO
greetings
  • #1,256
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:46pm Jul 16, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting raycoboy
I do NOT close all trades TCO,just the + ones, the - trades (if there are)....i just let them run till they become+;than i close them (in the worst case your EA will close them for me) so my risks are much smaller and my profit bigger because 10 times $2 is also 20 no? mb you make the same 20 but I think you have to wait much longer and for example EURUSD i didnt saw a move for 350 pips last times (so far).I hope you understand what I mean TCO greetings
Can you set up a Trade Explorer so we can see this in action?

TF
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #1,257
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:58pm Jul 16, 2013 1:58pm
why is the "close order delay" not working?
  • #1,258
  • Edited Jul 17, 2013 4:11am Jul 16, 2013 4:03pm | Edited Jul 17, 2013 4:11am
Quoting samblue
why is the "close order delay" not working?

Because I can't get it to work. The order history is not put in order. So we are not assured of bring back the latest closed trades. I'm not going to try and store those orders internally to make sure they are ordered correctly. It is a huge issue not having this. Can you document $ lost for not having this feature?
  • #1,259
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:00pm Jul 16, 2013 11:00pm
Set Files

I will try my best (if anyone find this useful) to upload each Trend Method's set files and its various combinations. With reference to the backtesting excel (which u could download and pls follow along if you intend to download the set files and use them)

Eg,

Trend Method=MACD Adjustable

1) METHOD=WPR W/O Con => set file name
MACD Adjustable, WPR WO CON


2) METHOD=STOCH SMA CLOSE With Con => set file name
MACD Adjustable, SMA CLOSE W CON

Set file name is self-explanatory. Today I will upload the MACD Adjustable set files. If u decide to trade MACD Adjustable this is the set that will help u. Then choose the various methods & just load up that set file and you are all "set" (pun fully intended)

PS: Pls give your feedback whether you will find this useful, otherwise I will keep the settings to myself. Rest of the settings is defaulted "out of the box"

Have fun
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip MACD Adjustable Settings.zip   22 KB | 323 downloads
  • #1,260
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:16pm Jul 16, 2013 11:16pm
Hi All,

Here's something I used for my TCO trader testing

I always assigned a different magic number to each chart, this way u can make use of TCO Trader's parm of setting acct profit close % and get to know just which cur will do well with that method u choose. Its more helpful than using Equity Sentry ea. A little trick is to even cleared out SL/TP to 0, then set acct loss close % as well. Eg if you wanted 3% profit, then consider also 3% loss. Coz thats 1:1. I find it a very neat way to give me somewhat of an indication of what works and what may not

ES ea will help to monitor the entire acct, it does allow u to input magic numbers, but imagine if u want to track like 20 pairs or whatever, and u want each to be tracked more strictly in terms of profitability per cur? You will end up with 20 charts with TCO trader, another 20 charts with ES ea.

If u do a basket close on ALL open trades, u still dont know which cur is more profitable, coz the basket close may happen when some trades had just opened, which makes it looks as if its always lossing $. (a false positive result).

PS: Maybe if we all do this knowledge swap by sharing our own little "tricks" or test results, all of us will gain something

BTW: Someone posted that I had to recompile the TCO Trader ea if I need a magic number there? I just placed the magic number without re-compiling. Pls let me know:-do I recompile once with any magic numbers, or multiple times with different magic numbers.
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