Could this be an easy way to win in forex? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Hard Way, Easy Way 115 replies

No Ducks Given - Make money from forex the easy way 21 replies

Why and how Win-Win in Forex is possible 56 replies

Is there an "easy" way to trade on Forex? 98 replies

Attachments: Could this be an easy way to win in forex?
Exit Attachments

Could this be an easy way to win in forex?

  • #21
  • Jul 16, 2013 5:51am Jul 16, 2013 5:51am
OP, I meant what I meant, fully understanding what you meant.

You say it's "a consistently crappy indicator". I say it "generates random signals". We are talking about the same thing. No misunderstanding on my part.

Btw, read very carefully post 17 by Wanderer.

I'd be amazed to know. Not everyone burning time on forums is necessarily newbie.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #22
  • Jul 16, 2013 6:29am Jul 16, 2013 6:29am
Quote
BUT STILL USING 20 SL and 10 TP to completely reflect the opposite of the original system.

I'm sorry to tell you that it is not that simple.
You see that if you completely reflect the opposite of the original system, you will not be using the same SL and TP.

Eg.
The original system signals
Buy at 1.1020 (Ask)
SL at 1.1010 (Bid)
TP at 1,1040 (Bid)

Now the complete opposite would be a Sell, but a sell does not open at Ask or settle at Bid
Assuming a 2 pip spread the opposite trade would be
Sell at 1.1018 (Bid)
TP at 1.1012 (Ask)
SL at 1,1042 (Ask)

So every opposite winner would return 6 pips. not 10
and every opposite loser would lose 24 pips not 20.

So an opposite signal with 80% win rate would just give break-even - No profit
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #23
  • Jul 16, 2013 7:14am Jul 16, 2013 7:14am
Quoting Gumrai
{quote} I'm sorry to tell you that it is not that simple. You see that if you completely reflect the opposite of the original system, you will not be using the same SL and TP. Eg. The original system signals Buy at 1.1020 (Ask) SL at 1.1010 (Bid) TP at 1,1040 (Bid) Now the complete opposite would be a Sell, but a sell does not open at Ask or settle at Bid Assuming a 2 pip spread the opposite trade would be Sell at 1.1018 (Bid) TP at 1.1012 (Ask) SL at 1,1042 (Ask) So every opposite winner would return 6 pips. not 10 and every opposite loser would...
Simple fix, TP-spread. You'll get less TP, but exactly the same performance.
  • #24
  • Jul 16, 2013 7:27am Jul 16, 2013 7:27am
Instead of looking for the worst system/ea/indicator, how about looking at the worst principles? Such as buying at the high/resistance etc?
  • #25
  • Jul 16, 2013 7:40am Jul 16, 2013 7:40am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} Simple fix, TP-spread. You'll get less TP, but exactly the same performance.
That's not a fix. That is what i said in my post and the reason why this would not work
Assuming 2 pip spread
Entry will be 2 pips worse off, TP will be 2 pips worse off and SL will give 2 pips additional loss
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #26
  • Edited 7:59am Jul 16, 2013 7:42am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Gumrai
{quote} That's not a fix. That is what i said in my post and the reason why this would not work Assuming 2 pip spread Entry will be 2 pips worse off, TP will be 2 pips worse off and SL will give 2 pips additional loss
I would take that if the system produces 80% winning rate any day. I bet anyone would.

Quoting vox dei
OP, I meant what I meant, fully understanding what you meant. You say it's "a consistently crappy indicator". I say it "generates random signals". We are talking about the same thing. No misunderstanding on my part. Btw, read very carefully post 17 by Wanderer. I'd be amazed to know. Not everyone burning time on forums is necessarily newbie.
I don't understand how you can put the word consistent and random in one sentence and say they mean the same to you. Maybe I just don't know your definition of random.
  • #27
  • Jul 16, 2013 7:46am Jul 16, 2013 7:46am
Honestly speaking it is the game of probabilities the more odds are in your favour the higher the chance of success It is an age old game there is nothing new in this business whether you have good system or worst system it doesn't matter,Agree with me or not profit is the name of the game Do whatever it takes to be profitable
  • #28
  • Jul 16, 2013 7:53am Jul 16, 2013 7:53am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} I would take that if the system produces 80% winning rate any day.
Look at my post #22 again and concentrate.
if a system produces 8 winners at 6 pips and 2 losers at 24 pips there is no profit to be made.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #29
  • Jul 16, 2013 8:24am Jul 16, 2013 8:24am
Quoting Gumrai
{quote} Look at my post #22 again and concentrate. if a system produces 8 winners at 6 pips and 2 losers at 24 pips there is no profit to be made.
Didn't you say you to assume 2 pips spread?

10 TP - 2 spread = 8 pips profit
20 SL + 2 spread = 22 pips loss

80% system with this MM setting = out of 10 trades, 8 of them is expected to win 8 pips profit, and 2 of them is expected to lose 22 pips.

8 * 8 = +64

2 * 22 = -44

Out of 10 trades, you would make +20 pips profit. If you toy with SL and TP, you can possibly get more. Regardless, I'll be happy with it.
  • #30
  • Jul 16, 2013 8:46am Jul 16, 2013 8:46am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} That's why I'm a purely discretionary trader. Every trade is different, trading becomes an open field. That's what works for me anyway. But system traders would only know long term success if they know WHEN to execute their system and when NOT to. imo
Amen to that. Fixed TP and SL will put some pressure off you perhaps, but in changing market conditions, fixed things work only for a certain period of time, then they stop working, that included fixed TP/SL. Still an interesting topic.
Trax Tibidax Tibidox...
  • #31
  • Jul 16, 2013 8:49am Jul 16, 2013 8:49am
Quoting Ishtana
{quote} Didn't you say you to assume 2 pips spread? 10 TP - 2 spread = 8 pips profit 20 SL + 2 spread = 22 pips loss 80% system with this MM setting = out of 10 trades, 8 of them is expected to win 8 pips profit, and 2 of them is expected to lose 22 pips. 8 * 8 = +64 2 * 22 = -44 Out of 10 trades, you would make +20 pips profit. If you toy with SL and TP, you can possibly get more. Regardless, I'll be happy with it.
No, you have forgotten that if you take the opposite entry you will also be losing on the bid/ask difference. If you enter a long position on the original system, you are entering at ask. The opposite would be a short at Bid and so you have to knock off another 2 pips.
So it would be 8 *6 = +48 and 2 * -24= -48.
If you toy with SL and TP, you can possibly get more, but then you are no longer trading the opposite of the original system, you are trading an unrelated system.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #32
  • Jul 16, 2013 9:18am Jul 16, 2013 9:18am
Quoting Gumrai
{quote} No, you have forgotten that if you take the opposite entry you will also be losing on the bid/ask difference. If you enter a long position on the original system, you are entering at ask. The opposite would be a short at Bid and so you have to knock off another 2 pips. So it would be 8 *6 = +48 and 2 * -24= -48. If you toy with SL and TP, you can possibly get more, but then you are no longer trading the opposite of the original system, you are trading an unrelated system.
For example, EU is on 1.3002/1.3000

Original system long: filled at 1.3002/1.3000, TP is at +20 = 1.3022/1.3020, SL is at -10 = 1.2992/1.2990
Reverse system short: filled at 1.3002/1.3000, SL is at -22 = 1.3022/1.3020, TP is at +8 = 1.2992/1.2990

Both systems open and close at the same price level if the 2 pips spread are included. Why are you paying double the spread if you reverse the trade?

The system would still be related. That's the whole point of the discussion, tweaking a good MM to a consistently bad system in reverse. Once you have found a system that produces 80% 10 pips SL trade, that's when the MM trial and error begins.

I'm only putting this idea forward because of the fact that it is much easier to find a losing system than a winning one. Losing system is ubiquitous, but has potential if it is really really bad consistently.
  • #33
  • Jul 16, 2013 9:34am Jul 16, 2013 9:34am
your broker approves of this strategy ....so thats a tick
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #34
  • Jul 16, 2013 9:37am Jul 16, 2013 9:37am
Quote
Original system long: filled at 1.3002/1.3000, TP is at +20 = 1.3022/1.3020, SL is at -10 = 1.2992/1.2990
Reverse system short: filled at 1.3002/1.3000, SL is at -22 = 1.3022/1.3020, TP is at +8 = 1.2992/1.2990

Totally wrong. Maybe this makes sense to you as it is your format

Original system long: filled at Ask 1.3002 TP is at +20 = Bid 1.3022, SL is at -10 = Bid 1.2992
Reverse system short: filled at Bid 1.3000, SL is at -24 = Ask 1.3024, TP is at +6 = Ask 1.2994
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #35
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:54am Jul 16, 2013 11:54am

Quoting Ishtana
{quote} I would take that if the system produces 80% winning rate any day. I bet anyone would. {quote} I don't understand how you can put the word consistent and random in one sentence and say they mean the same to you. Maybe I just don't know your definition of random.

Easy. Consistent and random are not antonyms.

Quoting Ishtana
{quote} (...) I'm only putting this idea forward because of the fact that it is much easier to find a losing system than a winning one. Losing system is ubiquitous, but has potential if it is really really bad consistently.


Quoting vox dei
The chances you find an ANTI-HOLY GRAIL are the same as finding a HOLY GRAIL: 0 (zero).
Please carefully re-read Gumrai posts, as he was kind enough to explain.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #36
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:23pm Jul 16, 2013 1:23pm
Hi, I coded simple EA that buys and sells based on the crossing of two moving averages. It buys when fast ma crosses slow from below and sells when fast ma crosses slow from above. The trade is opened at the opening price of the next bar. Then I made another EA that does the exact opposite at the exact same prices. The spread must be added or else trade would not always get filled. Below are the results of these two EAs. I hope this information can be of use to you. This demonstrates how spread affects trading.

Br,

kateeus
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx ReportTester-22549.xlsx   177 KB | 521 downloads
File Type: xlsx ReportTester-22549_r.xlsx   176 KB | 452 downloads
  • #37
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:31pm Jul 16, 2013 1:31pm
Clear crystal explanation Kateeus
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #38
  • Jul 16, 2013 2:57pm Jul 16, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting orabi
forex is a one way market you either lose or lose no one will win in it alone they created this market to take liquidity easy liquidity from people .(this is insider information i have knew from 1998 from a collage that had deep connection with certain organizations and i remember his words that they will make a challenge that will harm people integrity and no one will win it ) banks and hedge funds have teams that work in this market and they have information and more power so i advice any one not to waste his money effort time in this bad market...
sorry to disagree but BOLLOCKS, I trade I win I live and I am in no secret society, be good and I reckon you are developing a hedging system lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #39
  • Jul 16, 2013 3:02pm Jul 16, 2013 3:02pm
how about trading a half decent method and if you lose muscle your way back in whether its martingale, hedging buy in ,scale or what ever you wish to call it
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40
  • Jul 16, 2013 3:15pm Jul 16, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} sorry to disagree but BOLLOCKS, I trade I win I live and I am in no secret society, be good and I reckon you are developing a hedging system lol
Missed orabi's post. You made me go back and read it. Thanks for that. BIG LOL
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
0 traders viewing now