- #1,502
- Jul 16, 2013 4:49am Jul 16, 2013 4:49am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
A good indication that the Euro is currently directionless (No conviction from either Bulls or Bears) is that price is ranging between the 23.6% and 38.2% fibo of last Wednesday's ball busting short squeezing Bernanke Q&A rally.
If we see a daily close above 23.6 or below 38.2, then maybe we're going somewhere.
Either way, I am biased and accordingly position to the downside.
If we see a daily close above 23.6 or below 38.2, then maybe we're going somewhere.
Either way, I am biased and accordingly position to the downside.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,504
- Jul 16, 2013 5:01am Jul 16, 2013 5:01am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #1,505
- Jul 16, 2013 5:05am Jul 16, 2013 5:05am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} my directional bias remains to the downside for now, which is why i labeled it the way i did. following 2 weeks of congestion, a true break to the upside would be a reversal of the downtrend (in my view) however, your point regarding the definition is noted and appreciated
1. Price has bounced off the rising equidistant channel resistance. (twice)
2. Since price crossed the 55, 100 and 200 week averages, it has yet to make an attempt to retest them as support.
3. Since price has broken out of the longer term falling equidistant channel, it has yet to retest the broken channel resistance on a larger TF swing.
4. There is also a MacD bearish divergence (although it is not shown on my chart)
5. Also, usually when price extends to the 123.6% - 138.2% range (or the popular 127.7%), it is usually followed by a retrace back down to at least the 100% level but more likely 88.6%
As for the top side, I don't see anything that compels me to consider a buy at this point, but I would not rule out one more approach of the rising equidistant channel resistance before it comes crashing down. However, my analysis tells me that we are in the process of forming a lower high as we speak.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,506
- Jul 16, 2013 5:07am Jul 16, 2013 5:07am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,507
- Jul 16, 2013 5:10am Jul 16, 2013 5:10am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #1,508
- Jul 16, 2013 5:12am Jul 16, 2013 5:12am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} my views are very similar, and many of my reasons are the same as yours... I am looking for 123, 119, and 108(maybe) to the downside, and I have started building my short book accordingly (currently @ 30% of max allocation) I may take an overweight short on this pair once it breaks down past 127 (and holds) while it is nice to see that our views are similar, I was secretly hoping that someone would play devils advocate!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,509
- Jul 16, 2013 5:14am Jul 16, 2013 5:14am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
{quote} I did in fact advocate for the devil. This time he appears to be on our side.
i see a lof of people on FF calling for screaming highs with random wave counts (which dont make sense to me)
curve fitting and forced wave counting always puts me on high alert for BS
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #1,510
- Jul 16, 2013 5:17am Jul 16, 2013 5:17am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} 123 and 119 are also major fib confluence zones and therefore quite likely in my view (looking at daily and weekly tf) i see a lof of people on FF calling for screaming highs with random wave counts (which dont make sense to me) curve fitting and forced wave counting always puts me on high alert for BS
That's very refreshing. The more retail traders I see heavily advocating longs on a pair, the more I am inclined to take a trade in the opposite direction.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,511
- Jul 16, 2013 5:24am Jul 16, 2013 5:24am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
{quote} . That's very refreshing. The more retail traders I see heavily advocating longs on a pair, the more I am inclined to take a trade in the opposite direction.
but here is something i published on another thread last week regarding the current break above the downward sloping trend line resistance (turned support), and i think its still mostly valid (source: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post6811904)
Published on July 11th
theDHT view: The Big Picture
We can see that long term critical trend lines have played an important role in the evolution of PA
The key question we must ask is: can this breakout be trusted? or is it smoke and mirrors?
On the surface, the reversal pattern illustrated from points 1 thru 5 appears to be structurally correct, and the break above the key resistance level seems credible at first glance,
However, a closer look shows that the swing highs at points 3 and 5 have failed to make a higher high than point 1... this makes the reversal pattern questionable...
Additionally, an argument can be made, that the price action since the break above the trend line resistance level, is following the path of yet another reversal pattern(to the downside...)
If I were to place a directional bet just from this chart, I can argue a bull case as well as a bear case... however, the longer term TF's (daily/weekly/monthly) are, IMO, pointing towards a bearish scenario...additionally, the macro back drop cannot be under estimated, therefore I am not bullish at this stage (additionally, I am not a day trader)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #1,512
- Jul 16, 2013 5:29am Jul 16, 2013 5:29am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
{quote} Breakthrough. The euro remained around 3070, but we need support to look up again. {image}
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #1,513
- Jul 16, 2013 5:32am Jul 16, 2013 5:32am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Cheat-Sheet On Spying http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...t-sheet-spying
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,514
- Jul 16, 2013 5:36am Jul 16, 2013 5:36am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
М15 {image}
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #1,515
- Jul 16, 2013 6:02am Jul 16, 2013 6:02am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,516
- Jul 16, 2013 6:11am Jul 16, 2013 6:11am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote}
This spying stuff starts to obsess me :-)
- #1,518
- Jul 16, 2013 6:15am Jul 16, 2013 6:15am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} This spying stuff starts to obsess me :-)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,519
- Jul 16, 2013 6:17am Jul 16, 2013 6:17am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it