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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,461
  • Jul 10, 2013 8:30am Jul 10, 2013 8:30am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Bias was down this morning for EURAUD but we did mention the potential for bounce up. Yesterdays low/W M1 1.3896 held with an engulfing close (3 bar reversal signal) hammer on 1hr. Bought at 1.3931 and currently stalling at the Asian high D pivot 1.3991. Should hopefully break higher, will post chart if we proceed. Yesterdays low was of course the 26/27 June low so our CT rules apply. Proven support/resistance level or W pivot (we have both), price proving for hours it did not want to go lower i.e. flow changing, good 1hr candle (lower wick...
Entering the London close potential reversal period. As this trade was against the D close and CT exited at +83. In addition to the time of day the previous potential support areas that could become resistance should be visually obvious on this chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudh1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #6,462
  • Jul 10, 2013 9:17pm Jul 10, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Entering the London close potential reversal period. As this trade was against the D close and CT exited at +83. In addition to the time of day the previous potential support areas that could become resistance should be visually obvious on this chart. {image}

Mmmmh might have to learn to trust EURAUD's runs a little more.
  • #6,463
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:07pm Jul 10, 2013 10:07pm
11 July 2013

Click on the date for 4 hr charts.

Its fair to say that yesterday most pairs did not follow the bias, but bounced from proven support levels as shown on D charts posted previously. Also see comments posted on morning of 10 July 2013. We picked one trade from 4 counter trend options, EURAUD. Counter trend trade rules here http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/02/trade-rules.html and higher low following divergence post here http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/0...ivergence.html

Bernanke's FOMC statement caused significant moves up. Often overly large D candles do not follow immediately whilst the market decides if a new trend has started or if the news move will be rejected. Asian trade in most cases pushed the strong D closes further. Either way there is no way of knowing if today will be a continuation day, a pause or retrace.

So all 5 pairs, no bias for today and care needed.
  • #6,464
  • Edited 6:57am Jul 11, 2013 4:56am | Edited 6:57am
In EURAUD buy at 1.4142, currently sitting at 1.4200. Will post charts if we push through.
  • #6,465
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:58am Jul 11, 2013 6:58am
Quoting Vantage
In EURAUD buy at 1.4142, currently sitting at 1.4200. Will post charts if we push through.
Now sitting on a treble top, given enough chances to pop exit at +50. Will show chart later most likely.
  • #6,466
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:20am Jul 11, 2013 8:20am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Now sitting on a treble top, given enough chances to pop exit at +50. Will show chart later most likely.
15 min chart multiple tops and exited. Entry off 1hr, heres the chart. Did not re-enter when the 1hr closed positive.

We continue to under estimate just how strongly EURAUD can run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudh1.png Size: 35 KB
  • #6,467
  • Jul 11, 2013 9:43pm Jul 11, 2013 9:43pm
12 July 2013
Click on date for D charts.

EUR - D closed with a substantial upper wick. COT data shows the big boys were short the EUR. This move up on Bernanke's statement could have triggered some stops. A 200 pip fall and 100 pip rally in US session makes direction and flow difficult to assess. I suspect down but no bias.

GU - D closed positive. 4hr higher low but could not sustain move above the 1.5200 high, admittedly by then it was late in US session, divergence showing. Bias up but a move lower from W R1 1.5172 would be no surprise.

EJ - D closed a doji with the 130.50/128.50 range respected. These charts are as clear as mud and unless there is clarity by London open there have to be better charts to trade. Basically no idea so no bias.

EURAUD - D closed positive closing on the 1.4250 resistance level. 4hr is still on higher high higher low cycle and is currently challenging the lows which may change the flow. Bias is up but a fall would be absolutely no surprise.

AUD - D closed a massive doji, similar to EJ there have to be better options to trade. No bias.
  • #6,468
  • Jul 11, 2013 10:49pm Jul 11, 2013 10:49pm
Could you share the base of your system? Thank you
  • #6,469
  • Jul 13, 2013 4:51am Jul 13, 2013 4:51am
Quoting eleva_urune
Could you share the base of your system? Thank you
Its the same as its always been except the major focus is now from 1hr entry and 15 min as opposed to 5 min entry. So its bigger pic HL/LH's as opposed to the scalping 5 min type entries. Its all in the 1st post and at the bottom of the first post you'll see some blog links for how I look at MTF analysis and a few other ideas.
  • #6,470
  • Jul 13, 2013 8:10am Jul 13, 2013 8:10am
Quoting eleva_urune
Could you share the base of your system? Thank you
Have a look at this http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/0...of-method.html
  • #6,471
  • Jul 14, 2013 9:52pm Jul 14, 2013 9:52pm
15 July 2013
Click on date for D charts.

EUR - D closed an inside candle hammer, falling around London open and bouncing up from the same area where US buyers came in on 11th, the major support/resistance level of 1.3000. 4hr clearly showing the base and the lower high made on Friday. A positive close and we are on a higher low and an upper trend line break, a negative close confirms the lower high. Can go either way, no bias.

GU - D closed negative after a 2 day strong move up it is still on a lower high lower low flow. The 4hr is still on a higher high higher low flow. Same as EUR can go either way, no bias.

EJ - D made a slightly higher low than the previous 2 days, charts still give me no clue as to whats going on. EUR and GU above can go either way with a good candle which I would be pretty much happy to take. EJ on the other hand might give a clearer picture as the day unfolds but for now I have no idea.

EURAUD - D closed positive. The next resistance level I see on chart is at 1.4900. 4hr is showing negative divergence and crossed lower but at this stage bias remains up.

AUD - D close negative with a lower wick rejecting the move below the 0.9040 support, positive divergence is showing. We have headed back to the 0.9100 area that can act as resistance. Bias down with possibility of reaction up from the lows.
  • #6,472
  • Jul 15, 2013 9:12pm Jul 15, 2013 9:12pm
The mentioned 4hr divergence and RSI cross lower won out.

1hr had a large engulfing positive close a couple of hours after London open. No follow through higher for 3 hrs, then a 3 bar reversal signal for a 1hr lower high swing. TP just above the W Pivot target for +74.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,473
  • Jul 15, 2013 9:17pm Jul 15, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting eleva_urune
Could you share the base of your system? Thank you

You can also look at http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html for getting a handle on trend v counter trend.
  • #6,474
  • Jul 15, 2013 9:18pm Jul 15, 2013 9:18pm
Quoting eleva_urune
Could you share the base of your system? Thank you

And perhaps http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/1...ulti-time.html also.
  • #6,475
  • Jul 15, 2013 9:44pm Jul 15, 2013 9:44pm
16 July 2013
Click on date for 4hr charts.

EUR - D closed an inside candle hammer the previous support level 1.3000 holding, RSI flat above 50. 4hr shows the current range 1.30/1.31 clearly, RSI has crossed its signal line up but more by default than anything else. The red signal line is falling and RSI drifting sideways. Can go either way no bias.

GU - D closed a hammer off the Apr and May lows/W pivot. 4hr is on a lower high lower low. Conflicting information no bias.

EJ - D closed positive at the 130.55ish resistance level. Bias up but can fall from the resistance level.

EURAUD - D closed negative and followed through in Asian session. The 11 June high/W pivot may act as support. Bias down but can move up from support level.

AUD - D closed positive from the 0.9050ish support area that it has struggled with for 2 weeks. 4hr is on a higher high higher low. Bias up.
  • #6,476
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:26pm Jul 16, 2013 10:26pm
Our EURAUD sell made yesterday has been taken out at BE.
17 July 2013
With the MPC Bank Rate votes this morning and Bernanke testifying this afternoon care needed.

EUR - D closed positive above 50 level, 4hr on higher high higher low. We are approaching an area where we sold off strongly last week and can react lower. Bias up.

GU - D closed positive. 4hr made higher high with price contained by the W pivot 1.5045 and W M3 1.5162, RSI has signaled a sell on cross lower. We are approaching area where we sold off from last week, even if 4hr has higher low that could present a problem. Bias up.

EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr sideways. Unless things get dramatically clearer by London open I do not see much in these charts.

EURAUD - D closed negative, 4hr lower high following divergence did sell off until US session where we have drifted sideways. D suggests down, 4hr hinting up.

AUD - D closed positive. 4hr RSI has signaled a sell and 1hr is potentially on a lower high. Approaching the 0.9300 area where we sold off last week. Bias up.
  • #6,477
  • Jul 17, 2013 6:32am Jul 17, 2013 6:32am
Aud/Usd

Hi Dave,

Took this trade. I identified that i wanted to be a buyer in line with 100 pips Triple Screen method. Then waited on 1Hr for price to retrace to oversold as per %Williams R.(indicated by red line)

Price then bounced off previous support and formed a 3 bar reversal. I entered just after close of candle, as marked by arrow. There were some anxious moments, but support again held. I have taken 2/3 off at 50 pips, and am letting the other 1/3 run. SL set to breakeven.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.png Size: 50 KB
  • #6,478
  • Jul 17, 2013 8:46am Jul 17, 2013 8:46am
Quoting mt2
Aud/Usd Hi Dave, Took this trade. I identified that i wanted to be a buyer in line with 100 pips Triple Screen method. Then waited on 1Hr for price to retrace to oversold as per %Williams R.(indicated by red line) Price then bounced off previous support and formed a 3 bar reversal. I entered just after close of candle, as marked by arrow. There were some anxious moments, but support again held. I have taken 2/3 off at 50 pips, and am letting the other 1/3 run. SL set to breakeven. {image}
That looks like an outstanding trade, we were sitting out with the news but that's the choice you make. You have used, as far as I am concerned, the best of 100pips TS method with the best of what we do here i.e. waiting for the turn to get a tighter stop.

Very very nice.
  • #6,479
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:05pm Jul 17, 2013 10:05pm
18 July 2013
Click on date for D charts.

Bernanke is testifying again this afternoon.

EUR - I amended my resistance level to the body highs for Apr and May 1.3178 which held. D closed negative with a lower wick. 4hr RSI crossed lower and 1hr flow now on lower high. Since the big upper wick on 11 July its 4 days later and that high hasn't been challenged. That does not seem to be a bullish market to me? In view of 4hr short term bias down, only time will tell if this is the start of a big move.

GU - D closed a large body doji. 4hr showing negative divergence from last weeks highs, RSI crossed lower but the candle has not yet closed. Its Wed and the only big move was yesterdays news event that has not followed through. Will be looking short term for 4hr to set up sells until D confirms.

EJ - D closed a hammer above every charts moving averages and RSI 50 levels. We can react lower from the April high overall bias up.

EURAUD - D closed a doji in big up trend. 4hr positive divergence, RSI crossed up and now a higher low. Bias up.

AUD - D closed a doji in down trend. 4hr negative divergence, 3 bar reversal, RSI crossed lower. Bias down.
  • #6,480
  • Jul 18, 2013 10:10pm Jul 18, 2013 10:10pm
19 July 2013

Click on date for 1hr charts.

For the last 2 days we have had only 2 BE trades. Choosing to avoid the news/speech times and lack of follow through generally.

EUR - D closed with another hammer, price did not go down after the lower high following 4hr divergence. Moves below 1.3100 have rejected on 17th, yesterday at London open and this morning in Asian session. Whilst the D is above the RSI 50 level and has a hammer it all seems a struggle to go up. The upper resistance area 1.3180 is approaching. Fairly clean 1hr trend line break and higher low set up Asian move. Bias is up but just does not seem convincing.

GU - D closed a hammer, 4hr still on higher low with the weeks high 1.5266 and W R1 approaching. Bias is up but like EUR just does not seem convincing.

EJ - D strong positive close, 4hr on higher high higher low. Bias up.

EURAUD - D closed positive with a 3 bar reversal but after the Asian/London open push there was no more upside for the day. That also is not inspiring confidence in move up today. There is a small hurdle at 1.4310, bias up.

AUD - After the doji D closed negative but it was all done in Asian session and no follow through lower during the London/US session. 4hr RSI crossed up and flat on 50 level. 1hr double bottom with divergence.
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