Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 24 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #461
  • Jul 11, 2013 4:04pm Jul 11, 2013 4:04pm
Hi Derek,

My short entry on gbpnzd is based on H4 supply level not on the H1. I base my entries on the timeframe where I spot the level. If you drill any level down to lower timeframes, most of the time you will see it can be a reaction to other areas on that timeframe.

I reduced my risk, looked at lower timeframes, but i dont pay attention to that lower timeframe. I saw what u mentioned and that served me to place my entry higher I believe, my entry is based on orih4 level at d1 distal line. That is the logic, hope now it's clear now.

Alfonso
Quoting Sdprice
{quote} HI alfonso, was looking at GBP?NZD short trade at the D1 supply distal level you have set up. My question is i thought we only take a reversal trade on ORIGINAL and fresh levels. THIS level at the distal level is an ORIGINAL LEVEL, however, i believe this level is not FRESH. SO would we still take this short trade even if the LEVEL is not fresh? Thanks for the help {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #462
  • Jul 11, 2013 4:12pm Jul 11, 2013 4:12pm
Hi David,

I am tracking and trading 20 currency pairs right now. Is that too much? For me it is now since I am not taking lower timeframe entries. Most entries are h4. I go for clear entries and forget about the pairs that have no clear entry or trend.

A selectioon of gbp, euro, cad and nzd pairs. There are more, but those are enough for now
Alfonso

Quoting david1234
hi Alfonso, u have a nice thread with all ur detailed explanations and videos! i have been following your thread for some time now. just wana check with u, wat currency pairs do u trade on? many thanks!
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #463
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:39pm Jul 11, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting panoramia
Hi Derek, My short entry on gbpnzd is based on H4 supply level not on the H1. I base my entries on the timeframe where I spot the level. If you drill any level down to lower timeframes, most of the time you will see it can be a reaction to other areas on that timeframe. I reduced my risk, looked at lower timeframes, but i dont pay attention to that lower timeframe. I saw what u mentioned and that served me to place my entry higher I believe, my entry is based on orih4 level at d1 distal line. That is the logic, hope now it's clear now. Alfonso {quote}...

Thanks alfonso, i did not realize you were looking at the 4h chart and basing it off of that. Thanks
  • #464
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:59pm Jul 11, 2013 8:59pm
Quoting panoramia
Hi David, I am tracking and trading 20 currency pairs right now. Is that too much? For me it is now since I am not taking lower timeframe entries. Most entries are h4. I go for clear entries and forget about the pairs that have no clear entry or trend. A selectioon of gbp, euro, cad and nzd pairs. There are more, but those are enough for now Alfonso {quote}
Wow nice!
Im tracking mainly de usd majors. Eu gu au nu. And de yen pairs but recently the yen pairs seem to be in messy price action, no clear levels to trade. What do u think abt de yen pairs?

Looking to widen de pairs to trade.
Thanks for ur reply!
  • #465
  • Jul 12, 2013 1:41am Jul 12, 2013 1:41am
Hi Huk,
Thanks for contributing to the thread. I would recommend you to start with maximum 8-10 pairs if you are trading H1/H4 levels. If you want to trade lower timeframes, then less pairs, but the lower the timeframe the most difficult SD trading becomes and the more losses you will have.

Pairs to trade to start with? The majors: eurusd, gbpusd, nzdusd, audusd, usdjpy, usdcad. Then eurjpy, and some crosses like eurnzd, euraud, eurcad.... The pound cross pairs tend to overshoot sd levels by a few pips and then go in your favour, it's something you need to pay attention to when you trade them or add wiggle room to the SL.

Hope that helps Huk!
Alfonso

Quoting Hukkleberry
Alfonso Thank you for the effort put into the webinar: I learned a lot from it. I have a demanding full-time job but want to start setting aside time to analyse some pairs. Would you recommend any to begin with? I was thinking six to eight pairs would be a good start for me to follow. I would then hopefully begin posting some set ups of my own, rather than just continue lurking. Of these pairs do you find any of them show particular behaviour or characteristics that you have got a feel for over time? And have you had more success with some pairs...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #466
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:23am Jul 12, 2013 2:23am
Thanks for your charts Jasmina!

I have a limit buy order on a H4 demand area within a D1 demand, which is within a WK demand area. The D1 demand is the area that Jasmine (Larra) pointed out on his chart.

If you know the trendline color codes used by my rectangle indicator and on my charts, you will see where the D1 and the WK zone on the H4 chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 142 KB


There was another D1 demand above the one you pointed out and see what price did, bounced from it and reached the opposing D1 supply. I had a limit sell order up there but price didn't make it and dropped creating new lower timeframe areas.

There could be selling opportunities all the way down to the demand area we would be looking to trade long. H1 and H4 are very messy right now, boucing from all areas up and down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 146 KB




Quoting larra
Hello again, may I ask you if this demand daily area on AUDJPY can be considered as original one, and good for set and forget type of trade? {image} Thanks, and have a nice trading day.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #467
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:30am Jul 12, 2013 2:30am
Every accomplisment starts with decision to try.
  • #468
  • Edited 2:59am Jul 12, 2013 2:41am | Edited 2:59am
Planning a long at a H4 demand level within a fresh WK and D1 demand area.

The H4 demand area has been taken out, so price could easily drop towards my long entry. There could be some short opportunities on the way down but first we need to break lower than 1.0315 ish area to short the pullbacks towards the WK demand area.

If price rallies higher and does not take much time to do it, it won't break my H4 down trendline and 1.0527 will be a short entry.
But if price breaks lower than 1.0315 then we'll look to short lower than that upper H4 supply area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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See where the limit buy order is located, right within the fresh WK demand area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #469
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:32am Jul 12, 2013 3:32am
Planning a short on a H4 supply area right within the D1 supply area for CADCHF.

I had a loss on the original supply area on the left when price came back to it, then price went in my direction. Now I am trying the new level formed on H4.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #470
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:51am Jul 12, 2013 3:51am
I made nice trade this morning too
http://charts.mql5.com/2/23/gbpjpy-m...-markets-2.png
  • #471
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:56am Jul 12, 2013 3:56am
Nice one Blitzkie... Congratulations!

Just a reminder only. Please, we only allow H1/H4 trades on the thread. I don't trade timeframes lower than H1, mostly concentrated on swing trades. You are welcome to post your entries before of after they have been taken, but please no entries lower than H1.

Alfonso

Quoting blitzkie
I made nice trade this morning too {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #472
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:03am Jul 12, 2013 4:03am
About CADCHF. One more opinion. Hope you dont mind.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_07 Jul. 12 11.01.jpg Size: 161 KB
Every accomplisment starts with decision to try.
  • #473
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:12am Jul 12, 2013 4:12am
Jasmina, your opinion and any other's are most welcome.

My entry is based on H4 supply, but if you look at the H1 supply areas, there is a level on top of level.

The only problems I find on that H1 level is:

  1. Level on top of level, I go always for the top one
  2. The H1 down trendline created on the way down had been broken with conviction so if anything, I will go for the extreme. In this case the top H1 area

I may be wrong, I am MANY times, but that's the way I normally do it.

The H1 demand level could work but it's a bit aggressive, it would need to break the highs before being validated though, but it's aggressive (too high in the curve).


Quoting larra
About CADCHF. One more opinion. Hope you dont mind. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 144 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #474
  • Jul 12, 2013 6:13am Jul 12, 2013 6:13am
Alfonso,

I'm planning a long trade on a H4 demand area that kiwi made. I think it's low on the curve and have a nice R:R ratio, so it could work well. I have many doubts but still trying to catch those great odds trades.

Do you agree with my point of view? Would you go long there?


thanks in advance, have a nice day and weekend in the sun!!
toni
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #475
  • Jul 12, 2013 6:28am Jul 12, 2013 6:28am
Hola Toni,

Took a look at your NZDUSD H4 chart. This is what I've got. That whole H4 demand area on the kiwi is a reaction to previous demand. Too much trading in the zone, so no trade for me on that one.

You painted your zone on one of the pullbacks. It's not an original zone, but a fresh zone which is a reaction to previous zones, too much trading in the area, so it does not match my rules for a set & forget.

That's just my view, like always!
Alfonso


Quoting forexdaist
Alfonso, I'm planning a long trade on a H4 demand area that kiwi made. I think it's low on the curve and have a nice R:R ratio, so it could work well. I have many doubts but still trying to catch those great odds trades. Do you agree with my point of view? Would you go long there? thanks in advance, have a nice day and weekend in the sun!! toni {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 158 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #476
  • Jul 12, 2013 8:07am Jul 12, 2013 8:07am
Quoting panoramia
Hola Toni, Took a look at your NZDUSD H4 chart. This is what I've got. That whole H4 demand area on the kiwi is a reaction to previous demand. Too much trading in the zone, so no trade for me on that one. You painted your zone on one of the pullbacks. It's not an original zone, but a fresh zone which is a reaction to previous zones, too much trading in the area, so it does not match my rules for a set & forget. That's just my view, like always! Alfonso {quote} {image}
Ok Alfonso. I think you are right.

Thank you, you are very kind.


toni
  • #477
  • Edited 6:41pm Jul 12, 2013 6:30pm | Edited 6:41pm
Next week, I will be organizing the second webinar (Wednesday 17th at 1 PM GMT, right at NY Open).

Those interested in attending, please send me a private message with your email.

Those who have already sent me their emails for the first webinar need not to send me their emails again, they are already in the mailing list, thus invited automatically.

On this second webinar we'll be covering:

  1. Assess how good a level is based on the main odds enhancers
  2. Live trading analysis on the pairs that you suggest

If you have any suggestions, please let me know via private message.

Anybody is welcome to join the webinar, no matter what trading level you have.
Looking forward to the next webinar (the second)

NOTE: please, watch the previous webinar as well as the videos on this thread's first post if you are new and wish to attend. Why? Because those videos cover the basics of supply and demand trading, I won't go through the basics again, the existing videos cover the basics in depth.

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #478
  • Jul 12, 2013 9:22pm Jul 12, 2013 9:22pm
Hi Alfonso, will the following items you mentioned before will still be covered on the 2nd webinar?

1. STRENGTH OF DEPARTURE
2. NUMBER OF PULLBACKS
3. PROFIT MARGIN. 3:1
4. BIGGER PICTURE
5. TIME AT LEVEL
6. ARRIVAL

Looking forward. Thanks!

Have a great weekend everyone! :-)



Quoting panoramia
Next week, I will be organizing the second webinar (Wednesday 17th at 1 PM GMT, right at NY Open). Those interested in attending, please send me a private message with your email. Those who have already sent me their emails for the first webinar need not to send me their emails again, they are already in the mailing list, thus invited automatically. On this second webinar we'll be covering: Assess how good a level is based on the main odds enhancers Live trading analysis on the pairs that you suggestIf you have any suggestions, please let me know...
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
  • #479
  • Jul 13, 2013 6:32am Jul 13, 2013 6:32am
Yes, Isko, we'll be covering all that as well. I will try to make the webinar shorter than first one (3 hours). I will try and record a video before the webinar that will cover those 6 odds enhancers in detail, or I the webinar will be too long and we will not cover any live setups.

Alfonso

Quoting isko
Hi Alfonso, will the following items you mentioned before will still be covered on the 2nd webinar? 1. STRENGTH OF DEPARTURE 2. NUMBER OF PULLBACKS 3. PROFIT MARGIN. 3:1 4. BIGGER PICTURE 5. TIME AT LEVEL 6. ARRIVAL Looking forward. Thanks! Have a great weekend everyone! :-) {quote}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #480
  • Jul 13, 2013 6:54am Jul 13, 2013 6:54am
@Panoramia:

Do you publish your results?

I'd like to see your stats considering that you've been using this system of trading for quite sometime.
Twitter: @Solve_Forex
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