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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #1,181
  • Jul 11, 2013 12:48pm Jul 11, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well that all depends if yesterday's move was an impulse... which I don't agree with. In fact, yesterday's move was a correction from both a market sentiment POV as well as technical. I also believe the correction is over as evidenced by the lack of follow through today on top of a few technical indications which also suggest that a correction was overdue (such as a bullish hidden divergence on the daily charts plus unfinished PA retest business at the 1.3190 area.) Of course this is just my humble opinion based solely on 12 years trading...
EUR bulls were reduced to only 4% on Friday. Pity was, I got this information only yesterday LOL

Would be interesting to now the number right now after a 450 pip move.

Right now I am without charting program, but later I will show you a daily EW count, where yesterdays surge is the wave C impulse of an ABC-flat correction
  • #1,182
  • Jul 11, 2013 12:51pm Jul 11, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} There's not much decoding to do really. Benny just had to clarify some points on what "taper" means and he wanted to make it very crystal clear to the markets that it did not mean rate hikes any time soon. Once the bond vigilantes got the message, they covered their positions... and because it happened after hours in a low volume market condition, the move was exaggerated and turned into a stop hunting short squeeze by the big boys who price spot markets on the Interbank. Simple really. It was a storm in a teacup and now it's over. CNBC...

  • #1,183
  • Jul 11, 2013 12:55pm Jul 11, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting godim
{quote} I feel that I am wrong somewhere? I do not want to ignore your experience. On the contrary. I want to discuss freely. Even talk about correction. It may be a zigzag. Yesterday - impulse. Consolidation today and tomorrow - impulse. Edit: While the price does not go over the top 3417 will always talk about the correction.
Okay. Can you perhaps elaborate why you feel that yesterday's wave was an impulse wave rather than a corrective wave?

Also, if yesterday was impulse, then today was corrective. No?

In my knowledge of elliot wave theory (which admittedly is not that strong), an impulse wave is one that goes with the trend and a corrective wave is one that goes against the trend.

In my opinion which I elaborated on in my last post, the trend is still bearish, therefore yesterday's rally was a corrective wave, unless it was an actual trend reversal which cannot be confirmed until we see PA above my previously mentioned 1.3072 area on a weekly candle close basis and further confirm with another rally after a retest of the 3072 area as support/demand. Even then, the overall larger time frame trend is still bearish until we break and close (again on a weekly candle close basis) above 1.3710.

What are your thoughts on this?

ADD: Okay scratch that impulse/corrective question. I understand now. A corrective ABC as a whole is in fact corrective, but within that correction, waves A and C are impulse and only wave B is corrective... assuming of course that yesterday's rally was in fact wave C of a flat correction as indicated by Marcus.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,184
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:04pm Jul 11, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} EUR bulls were reduced to only 4% on Friday. Pity was, I got this information only yesterday LOL Would be interesting to now the number right now after a 450 pip move. Right now I am without charting program, but later I will show you a daily EW count, where yesterdays surge is the wave C impulse of an ABC-flat correction

EW count 12h TF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,185
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:06pm Jul 11, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay. Can you perhaps elaborate why you feel that yesterday's wave was an impulse wave rather than a corrective wave? Also, if yesterday was impulse, then today was corrective. No? In my knowledge of elliot wave theory (which admittedly is not that strong), an impulse wave is one that goes with the trend and a corrective wave is one that goes against the trend. In my opinion which I elaborated on in my last post, the trend is still bearish, therefore yesterday's rally was a corrective wave, unless it was an actual trend reversal which cannot...
You must excuse me. I work with a translator and a little slow to answer.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,186
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:09pm Jul 11, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} EW count 12h TF {image}

since wave C is over 4x wave A, this count would get more and more un-probable, if we would get higher now
  • #1,187
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:10pm Jul 11, 2013 1:10pm
All right. Let us leave the waves of Markus.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,188
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:12pm Jul 11, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting godim
{quote} You must excuse me. I work with a translator and a little slow to answer.
Take your time. No problem
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,189
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:15pm Jul 11, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} since wave C is over 4x wave A, this count would get more and more un-probable, if we would get higher now
That is a big if. I really don't see this pair going any higher other than maybe a retest of the high that was already reached at 1.3205
Actually it will be more likely that a retest will not exceed yesterday's close.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,190
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:15pm Jul 11, 2013 1:15pm
Here's the chart. There DownTrend. But now there UpSwing. Neutral Slope. Crossing one of the two levels will be a certainty.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 60 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,191
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:19pm Jul 11, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting godim
{quote} You must excuse me. I work with a translator and a little slow to answer.

Hahaha, Godim, you are the only guy on the world who is able to explain Gann via a translator :-)

Very good, my friend, very good
  • #1,192
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:22pm Jul 11, 2013 1:22pm
What is the probability to turn this UpSwing?
Attached Image


In price is 67%. But at the time - only two days - under 50%.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,193
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:29pm Jul 11, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} EW count 12h TF {image}

1h TF EW count EU


this is not set in stone - only idea
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  • #1,194
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:31pm Jul 11, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} 1h TF EW count EU this is not set in stone - only idea {image}

Since the impulse down is a leading diagonal wave 1, the wave 2 up should retrace high. Normally wave 2's after leading diagonal retrace above 80%


Maybe we get a complex consolidation here over the next few days.

That would accomodate Godim's view, that we have right now only a chance of 50% for reversing here (time wise)
  • #1,195
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:39pm Jul 11, 2013 1:39pm
And here is my interpretation of Gann.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 112 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,196
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:40pm Jul 11, 2013 1:40pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Since the impulse down is a leading diagonal wave 1, the wave 2 up should retrace high. Normally wave 2's after leading diagonal retrace above 80% Maybe we get a complex consolidation here over the next few days. That would accomodate Godim's view, that we have right now only a chance of 50% for reversing here (time wise)
Now that we've pretty much exhausted the technical possibilities, let's look at sentiment for a minute.

Traders are going to be buying USDs again very soon... maybe even starting tomorrow, but probably next week.
So, if you wanted to buy USD, which currency would you use?

AUD? Nope. It's already oversold and with the rate differential, it is too expensive to sell at these levels.
GBP? Maybe, but you won't get much bang for your buck because in the longer term TF it is already at historic lows.
JPY? Yes of course, but I think it still needs to correct more before attracting any serious sellers.
EUR? Definitely. Compounded with the fact that the EuroZone is economically in the crapper and that a further rate cut is imminent, if the market manages to push price below the 2745 area, there is no significant support until just below 1.20

Therefore, I believe speculators will be picking on the Euro next and future COT reports are going to reflect that in a huge way. That's what I call "Bang for Buck"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,197
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:46pm Jul 11, 2013 1:46pm
so we are at cross road!!! eur/usd
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #1,198
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:47pm Jul 11, 2013 1:47pm
In the cable. Bears still have hope.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 97 KB


But as you can see the bulls are growing and it is possible tonight to go over 5191.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #1,199
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:49pm Jul 11, 2013 1:49pm
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...#axzz2YlPu7Z65

EUR/USD: Enjoying the Ride?
  • #1,200
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:50pm Jul 11, 2013 1:50pm
Quoting priceaction1
so we are at cross road!!! eur/usd
Yes. Crossroads is a good word for it.
When you find yourself at a crossroad, you analyse the fundamental market drivers... In other words, market sentiment.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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