Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 23 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #441
  • Jul 10, 2013 7:54pm Jul 10, 2013 7:54pm
Hi there!

Those are normal things that happen... It takes time in order to properly identify levels, and even after months of years, you will fail many times, that's part of the game. We can't help you if you don't post your charts like another user mentioned.

If you trade swing H4 or intraday with H1, there are not too many trades at the same time, they are easily managed. I have my own trade assistant built for SD trading, so it's easier on my case.

Your questions can't be answered easily without charts, turning points and good SD levels take time, months, or even years, it depends on so many variables like time, dedication, number of neurons left...

I have posted some videos, watch them several times, ask any doubts you have! We'll try to solve them!
Alfonso

Quoting Voiture_10
Hi Panoramia, I am huge fan of cars and I recently visited France and embarrassingly this was the one word that I used very often when I was there and it kinda stuck with me now. Hence, my choice of login name. Anyhow back to the real world of trading, i do have a number of questions which I hope you will be able to help make it understandable. (1) S/D Zones - I had another breakeven week with profit from AUDUSD but losses from EURJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD. I am still not able to correctly identify the turning points of price and it has been very challenging...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #442
  • Jul 11, 2013 3:23am Jul 11, 2013 3:23am
This is the short trade I had planned yesterday on GBPCAD. I had planned one on H1 speedbump but I cancelled it because approach was not good, profit margin either (in the heat of the moment I placed that limit set, not good). I would love to, but I can't post all cancellations and all trades that I plan, it would take me most of my time, sorry for that. There are rules that will force me to cancel my trades on H1 and even on H4, certain conditions, trendline being broken with conviction, news like yesterday's Benanke.

But the top trade, based on H4 supply but drilled down to match my risk worked really well. 125 pips, 5:1 risk/reward.

The trade was planned based on H4 supply zone WITHIN the D1 supply zone, fresh and original H4 supply in the direction of the D1/WK timeframe.

Anybody took this trade with me?

Quoting panoramia
Planned 2 trades to go short on GBPCAD. - First one is on H1 speedbump supply after last week low (red beads on my charts) has been solidly broken with momentum - The second one is a H4 short which has been drilled down to the H1 chart for a lower risk entry. Why? I switched to the H1 chart and saw level on top of level on H1, in this sceneario I always try to go for the upper zone of supply. {image} {image} The D1 demand is further down. So there is enough room for a nice risk reward. {image}
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #443
  • Jul 11, 2013 3:46am Jul 11, 2013 3:46am
Quoting panoramia
Anybody took this trade with me?
No, but I followed along and watched it unfold on my charts .. well done .. very nice trade
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #444
  • Jul 11, 2013 4:17am Jul 11, 2013 4:17am
nice trade, I am still at demo modus....
  • #445
  • Edited 5:36am Jul 11, 2013 4:36am | Edited 5:36am
Hi Shabs,
Sorry for my late reply but I hadn't seen ur message amongst the others, sorry

  1. If a SD area is taken out by just 0.1 pip it will no longer be a valid area for me. I try to think like a robot or EA, a robot has no "maybe", if a zone is broken then the zone is broken, no matter how many pips, because if you do, then you will have to establish the max number of pips for a zone to be invalidated. To me 0.1 pip means that a zone has been taken out. Big players have strong buy/sell algorithms and robots, they won't allow their areas to be broken easily
  2. If a SD area is ponetrated by 25% or more, I will not take it as a retest. In fact, if the area is not fresh, I will not take it. I want the first pullback always. But in case you want to try it a second time, +25% penetration is not a good signal. Many times it will work, but it's not higher odds any more
  3. Take a look at those false breakouts, sometimes when you place an order on H4, if you switch to the H1 or even lower timeframes, you will see areas that made price react above the zone, if that is the case you should add more wiggle. Many times, those false breakouts are bull/bear traps, be careful!


Hope that helps Shabs!
Alfonso

Quoting Shabs19
Hi Alfonso, Just an observation, the supply gets taken out by a couple of pips, is this supply now invalid and is the demand now in control on that EurJpy chart ? I am sure you said somewhere that you wait for 2 supply zones to be taken out before you determine that demand is now in control. Can you please clarify, as I have often seen supply or demand spiked by only a couple of pips over ( false breakout ) to reverse strongly from there as if the supply / demand was still intact.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #446
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:54am Jul 11, 2013 5:54am
gold now stays at daily fresh original supply label. 4 hour chart i found good supply label for entry .
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  • #447
  • Edited 7:05am Jul 11, 2013 6:32am | Edited 7:05am
Be careful Ochin, Gold H4 supply level is not original, it's fresh but not original. I took that short trade on the H4 speedbump supply some days ago, it was on demo since I am practising my SD trading on metals and commodities, not trading live on metals for now, spot has big spreads.

See that the level is not original. Draw a horizontal line at the highest high and you will see it's a reaction to that level.

Price looks like it could be forming a H4 speedbump demand and could absorb supply.

By the way ochin, use Jing to capture your screens, I can't see your timeframes on your captures. http://www.techsmith.com/download/jing/

Quoting ochinkumar
gold now stays at daily fresh original supply label. 4 hour chart i found good supply label for entry . {image} {image}
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #448
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:09am Jul 11, 2013 7:09am
Quoting panoramia
Be careful Ochin, Gold H4 supply level is not original, it's fresh but not original. I took that short trade on the H4 speedbump supply some days ago, it was on demo since I am practising my SD trading on metals and commodities, not trading live on metals for now, spot has big spreads. See that the level is not original. Draw a horizontal line at the highest high and you will see it's a reaction to that level. Price looks like it could be forming a H4 speedbump demand and could absorb supply. By the way ochin, use Jing to capture your screens, I...

Thank you for this nice explanation.
  • #449
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:11am Jul 11, 2013 7:11am
Alfonso, Iīve been looking for a commodities and metals demo account for some time now. Iīd like to test them as well. However, I canīt find one. Everytime itīs set up I can only trade FX. Can you recommend one? Which one are you using?

Cheers,

Christian
  • #450
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:16am Jul 11, 2013 7:16am
Hola Christian!

I am using HotForex broker as my demo account for commodities and metals, I use it as well for Dollar Index, which is key for forex trading.

These are the commodities is has in demo account, as well as indexes, etc.

Quoting Christianfx
Alfonso, Iīve been looking for a commodities and metals demo account for some time now. Iīd like to test them as well. However, I canīt find one. Everytime itīs set up I can only trade FX. Can you recommend one? Which one are you using? Cheers, Christian
Attached Image
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #451
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:22am Jul 11, 2013 7:22am
I know it should be there. Iīve tried several brokers already but I canīt access commodities. I mightcontact them.
Thanks for your help
  • #452
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:51am Jul 11, 2013 8:51am
Quoting Christianfx
I know it should be there. Iīve tried several brokers already but I canīt access commodities. I mightcontact them. Thanks for your help
Hi Christian,

The symbols may be there but hidden. Go to your "Market Watch" window (the one with the symbols listed)
and then right mouse click and select "Show All" option and that will refresh and show every symbol available
on that broker's platform into the "Market Window" list.
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #453
  • Edited 11:00am Jul 11, 2013 10:13am | Edited 11:00am
Hi Alfonso,
I don't have the "automated level drawer indicator" in the template.
What about the date & time for the next webinar?
Regards
  • #454
  • Jul 11, 2013 10:15am Jul 11, 2013 10:15am
Hi Mosah,

It's not on the thread, but someone posted it in the thread a few pages back... You can look for it using the FF filter search for my thread and you will find it.

I am away with slow connection and difficult to plan any webinars, so it will probably be next Monday but will let all of you know soon!
Alfonso

Quoting mosah
Hi Alfonso, I haven't the "automated level drawer indicator" in the template. What about the date & time for the next webinar? Regards
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #455
  • Jul 11, 2013 10:23am Jul 11, 2013 10:23am
Quoting outapips
{quote} Hi Christian, The symbols may be there but hidden. Go to your "Market Watch" window (the one with the symbols listed) and then right mouse click and select "Show All" option and that will refresh and show every symbol available on that broker's platform into the "Market Window" list.

Got it. Thanks
  • #456
  • Jul 11, 2013 11:26am Jul 11, 2013 11:26am
Planning a long on H1 speedbump demand on GBPNZD.
I had taken the long at the bottom based on H1 demand for 125 pips, but it rallied like a rocket!

If price reaches the D1 supply area, I will cancel the long because it will no longer be valid and D1 supply will be in control.
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Planning a short based on H4 supply on GBPNZD
Planning this short at the D1 distal line. I drilled it down to H1 because the risk was too high. If I miss it then I will start looking for brand new H1 supply levels on the way down (engulf patterns absorbing previous lower timeframe demand).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #457
  • Jul 11, 2013 11:51am Jul 11, 2013 11:51am
hi Alfonso,

u have a nice thread with all ur detailed explanations and videos!

i have been following your thread for some time now.

just wana check with u, wat currency pairs do u trade on?

many thanks!
  • #458
  • Jul 11, 2013 12:19pm Jul 11, 2013 12:19pm
Alfonso

Thank you for the effort put into the webinar: I learned a lot from it.

I have a demanding full-time job but want to start setting aside time to analyse some pairs. Would you recommend any to begin with? I was thinking six to eight pairs would be a good start for me to follow. I would then hopefully begin posting some set ups of my own, rather than just continue lurking. Of these pairs do you find any of them show particular behaviour or characteristics that you have got a feel for over time? And have you had more success with some pairs over others?

Kind regards

Huk
  • #459
  • Jul 11, 2013 12:35pm Jul 11, 2013 12:35pm
Hello again,
may I ask you if this demand daily area on AUDJPY can be considered as original one, and good for set and forget type of trade?

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Thanks, and have a nice trading day.
Every accomplisment starts with decision to try.
  • #460
  • Jul 11, 2013 12:44pm Jul 11, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting panoramia
Planning a long on H1 speedbump demand on GBPNZD. I had taken the long at the bottom based on H1 demand for 125 pips, but it rallied like a rocket! If price reaches the D1 supply area, I will cancel the long because it will no longer be valid and D1 supply will be in control. {image} Planning a short based on H4 supply on GBPNZD Planning this short at the D1 distal line. I drilled it down to H1 because the risk was too high. If I miss it then I will start looking for brand new H1 supply levels on the way down (engulf patterns absorbing previous...
HI alfonso, was looking at GBP?NZD short trade at the D1 supply distal level you have set up. My question is i thought we only take a reversal trade on ORIGINAL and fresh levels. THIS level at the distal level is an ORIGINAL LEVEL, however, i believe this level is not FRESH. SO would we still take this short trade even if the LEVEL is not fresh?
Thanks for the help
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