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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #241
  • Jul 11, 2013 2:09am Jul 11, 2013 2:09am
Here are my two trades I am in since tonight. Took a loss on an other GU short before but it's part of the game.

NU and GU both turned where I expected it. SL at BE and let's see if we can get to target

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-07-11_0907.png Size: 53 KB
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #242
  • Jul 11, 2013 3:21am Jul 11, 2013 3:21am
Quoting Helius
Here are my two trades I am in since tonight. Took a loss on an other GU short before but it's part of the game. NU and GU both turned where I expected it. SL at BE and let's see if we can get to target {image}
Like a boss!

g.
I believe . . .
  • #243
  • Jul 11, 2013 3:33am Jul 11, 2013 3:33am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Not sure if I get this, Could you please rephrase what you just said Steve? g.

I am not sure what it is you don't get. The Matrix (Pun) quote about artificial manipulation of the markets or, the chart?

Thanks for your detailed explanation as to why you changed your trading.

Still not sure how you are entering, are you touch trading these.

I am wondering if this chart would be a good example of an area you may look at.
I know the pair is not great either in pip value nor conformity.

If I get you right, if the high of this chart and the former double top, gets taken out but price closes below the highs, you will enter short?
Is the shape of the bar important as in you are going to look for a bearish pa bar or, just the close?
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  • #244
  • Jul 11, 2013 3:48am Jul 11, 2013 3:48am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} I am not sure what it is you don't get. The Matrix (Pun) quote about artificial manipulation of the markets or, the chart? Thanks for your detailed explanation as to why you changed your trading. Still not sure how you are entering, are you touch trading these. I am wondering if this chart would be a good example of an area you may look at. I know the pair is not great either in pip value nor conformity. If I get you right, if the high of this chart and the former double top, gets taken out but price closes below the highs, you will enter...
I didn't understand the chart you posted as in what exactly were you trying to show.

And I am not touch trading. Touch trading refers to anticipating action at a level and executing the trade at the source. So a touch trade would mean that I would say go short as price touches the HHR. Instead I am actually waiting for a bar confirmation. I am waiting for a bar to test the order flow beyond the HHR and then falling back and closing below without any major support at the HHR.

The shape of the bar matters as I like to see a protruding wick (though it doesn't necessarily mean I am only looking for pin bars) as opposed to strong authoritative close on the fake out bar (even if that close is within the HHR).

The chart you just showed represents a situation I would be interested in except that this looks like non-fx and I haven't yet ventured with this method on to other markets. I have no doubt that it should work but I still can't vouch for it obviously.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #245
  • Edited 4:54am Jul 11, 2013 4:40am | Edited 4:54am
I will go back and read your posts on the GU.

EDIT:

Ok, so I am thinking that, the GU is basically a Daily SFP and validated in the same manner.

Just that you are not using the ATR SL.

And apart from you just mentioning you look for a long wick on the fake out bar, this is basically the recipe.

Is this correct?

Hmm, but come to think of it, did you not enter before that bar close?
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  • #246
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:10am Jul 11, 2013 5:10am
Quoting Pinbar
I will go back and read your posts on the GU. EDIT: Ok, so I am thinking that, the GU is basically a Daily SFP and validated in the same manner. Just that you are not using the ATR SL. And apart from you just mentioning you look for a long wick on the fake out bar, this is basically the recipe. Is this correct? Hmm, but come to think of it, did you not enter before that bar close? {image}
No I actually entered a little later than the daily bar close. the 2 AM alarm was of no use that day as I was up almost the entire night swatting mosquitoes and wiping sweat off me due to an electricity outage that lasted the entire night. I was hoping and praying all the time that the train wouldn't leave without me. I ended up getting in about 4 hours after the daily close. Fortunately it got me a slightly better price than the daily close.

But in "normal" circumstances I enter on the daily close unless the close is way off from the HHR/LLS. An example would be the USD/NOK trade. You can see the second bar of the fake out bars actually closed way under the LLS. I hence placed a pending short a few pips below the LLS. Here's a chart from my archives.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #247
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:46am Jul 11, 2013 5:46am
Ok Ghous.

1: So, you are using the SP as we would in an SFP, just that it was not an SFP because price closed above the SP?

2: You are waiting for the next bar to close and watching where it closes?

If this is correct, I will continue?

Please see chart.
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  • #248
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:46am Jul 11, 2013 5:46am
I got a few PMs asking for my entry reasoning on GU and NU short. Both scenarios are a form of rounded retest. Previous support turned into resistance.

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Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #249
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:05am Jul 11, 2013 6:05am
Quoting ghous
{quote} To begin with, the pin bar was headed straight into a big box of consolidation and immediate trouble area in that prior swing low hovering just above the pin bar. Always remember that price will take the path of least resistance. Here it was caught up between the order flow that triggered the pin bar and the bearish order flow being sourced from that consolidation box/FTA/PPZ. {image} Look at the bar that tried to penetrate the consolidation box and only ended up closing back under the it (the one I have a down arrow on). If this was some...
Ghous! - I know how much of your precious time can be consumed by such a post! I appreciate it A fully detailed answer - 100% what i was looking for. I will read it a couple more times I guess...
And no, - this new information doesnt make me dizzy. With this i just realize how much i still have to learn before thinking of going live... In the last 1 week i have learned a LOT from you guys. (Cheap joke there - lot, and LOT haha )
It's always a good thing to get new things in our toolbox - so that at demoing or back-testing I can have more aspects on what is happening and why

Thank you guys!
(You will see this sentence in the next years many many times )

Take care,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #250
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:51am Jul 11, 2013 6:51am
Quoting Pinbar
Ok Ghous. 1: So, you are using the SP as we would in an SFP, just that it was not an SFP because price closed above the SP? 2: You are waiting for the next bar to close and watching where it closes? If this is correct, I will continue? Please see chart. {image}
I want to see price take off above an HHR. I want to see it get rejected. I want to see it close back under the HHR with ease (i.e without using the HHR as support too much).

Ideally you want all this action to take place within 1 bar so that it gets contained inside a wick formation. In some cases such as the USD/NOK you get the same action very clear and obvious off a great location with good space only that it happens in more than one bars. In this case it happened on 2 bars. I consider such situations as well but like I said these are rare.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #251
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:52am Jul 11, 2013 6:52am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Ghous! - I know how much of your precious time can be consumed by such a post! I appreciate it A fully detailed answer - 100% what i was looking for. I will read it a couple more times I guess... And no, - this new information doesnt make me dizzy. With this i just realize how much i still have to learn before thinking of going live... In the last 1 week i have learned a LOT from you guys. (Cheap joke there - lot, and LOT haha ) It's always a good thing to get new things in our toolbox - so that at demoing or back-testing...
Good to hear Stephen.

Wishing you success

g.
I believe . . .
  • #252
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:44am Jul 11, 2013 7:44am
Quoting Pinbar
Closed out the trade for a loss. Now you know why this thread is called "The HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread". Let's see what the next one does. {image}
Hi, I had a question about this trade.

When zooming out on the charts at the time the trade was made it looks like price was still in a downtrend since around June 17th and was still making lower highs and lower lows.

In this context isn't it risky to go long at this point?
  • #253
  • Edited 12:30pm Jul 11, 2013 10:02am | Edited 12:30pm
Cannot complain about a lack of good setups today. USDCAD with a RR at a very nice level.

Edit: Very quick run to the target

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #254
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:12pm Jul 11, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting Helius
Cannot complain about a lack of good setups today. USDCAD with a RR at a very nice level. Edit: Very quick run to the target {image}
Hi Helius!

Sorry for bothering, but im kind of confused with your charts.
- What was the story behind you GU and NU trades? They were not 3 touch + rounded retests cuase on your chart I only see two touches. Could you give us some more detais? (+ Could you bit explain your UC trade as well?)
- What is the trade history indicator you are using? Would you mind sharing it?

Thanks!
Have a pipful day!

Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #255
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:17pm Jul 11, 2013 1:17pm
Based on my rules a setup does not require 3 touches. I found this during backtesting. I have taken hundreds of rounded retest trades using forextester and the way I play them in regards to SL and TP 3 touches are not required. A valid level for me exists if it has acted as BOTH support and resistance in the past. You can see this very nicely on the UCAD trade.

Saying this, you gotta find out how to play any trade setup on your own. You cannot just copy a "system" and expect it to work. Every personality is different and you will trade the exact same setup different then me, ghous, pinbar and anyone else. So having some fixed "rules" is good, as long as you can varify that over the long run you can trade it profitabily. No matter if it's 1, 2 or 3 touches...

For the trade "indicator". Just open your terminal on mt4, click on one of your trades in your history and drag them on the pair and you will see it.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #256
  • Edited 8:26pm Jul 11, 2013 7:47pm | Edited 8:26pm
Quoting bfd
{quote} Hi, I had a question about this trade. When zooming out on the charts at the time the trade was made it looks like price was still in a downtrend since around June 17th and was still making lower highs and lower lows. In this context isn't it risky to go long at this point?
Hi

Not at all, quite the reverse actually.
I know that may sound totally alien to what you have probably been taught.

The fact that it was making LHs & LLs helped to put the breakout traders into short positions just above where the order flow was set to flip, with major buyers coming in. The people short on that trade had their positions Reversed when they either closed the trade or their SL got hit. This means that, both the big guys and the millions of little guys were then pushing in the same direction, Up.

This is what trading the order flow is about.

Hope this helps
  • #257
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:09pm Jul 11, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting Helius
Cannot complain about a lack of good setups today. USDCAD with a RR at a very nice level. Edit: Very quick run to the target {image}
Nice one Helius

The FTB to the 150 EMA was great confluence.

Now we have a daily close below the WLCS, we may see a push down to the H1 SP for an SFP.
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  • #258
  • Edited 9:19pm Jul 11, 2013 8:48pm | Edited 9:19pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} I want to see price take off above an HHR. I want to see it get rejected. I want to see it close back under the HHR with ease (i.e without using the HHR as support too much). Ideally you want all this action to take place within 1 bar so that it gets contained inside a wick formation. In some cases such as the USD/NOK you get the same action very clear and obvious off a great location with good space only that it happens in more than one bars. In this case it happened on 2 bars. I consider such situations as well but like I said these are...
Ok Ghous

I am building a chart to get imaged in my brain.

This is correct, so far right?

EDIT: I also posted a GU setup which, if I am on the right track, was not an entry?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #259
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:37am Jul 12, 2013 2:37am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Ok Ghous I am building a chart to get imaged in my brain. This is correct, so far right? EDIT: I also posted a GU setup which, if I am on the right track, was not an entry? {image} {image}
Hey Steve,

As a rule price must close within the HHR and not necessarily under the previous bar's range. Since in this case you have marked out the HHR in confluence with the previous bar's high, naturally for this case price must close within the prior bar's range.

So for instance, with the Gu setup you mentioned, Its a very valid fake out setup because price closed under the HHR (the top most dotted line you drew) but the previous bar's range is way under and it obviously didn't close within the prior bar's range.

However, as much as it is a valid fake out setup its not a very good trade setup. There isn't much for price to go for because of the 150 EMA in confluence with the 1.55 RN coming in the way. It nevertheless did what it should have as price tested this FTA nicely before it took off.

g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I believe . . .
  • #260
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:39am Jul 12, 2013 2:39am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Ok Ghous I am building a chart to get imaged in my brain. This is correct, so far right? EDIT: I also posted a GU setup which, if I am on the right track, was not an entry? {image} {image}
I see there is some confusion about the way I trade. I'll get to this later today and formulate a post that explains exactly what I look for when I am trading. It really is pretty simple and straightforward. My bad I have just been randomly throwing trades and charts around the thread.

g.
I believe . . .
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