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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #201
  • Edited 5:51am Jul 10, 2013 5:28am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} You simply mean that during the breakout lot of guys went long and now the big guys are pushing the price down, thus taking out the SLs of the Breakout-Traders? And when its done then they will simply push the start button, and price will go up like a rocket? In your former post "Just to hit peoples' SL just inside the pendant and thus reversing their positions for a push up to the where they really want to sell it." Or am I missing / misunderstanding something? Cause as I understand your above quoted sentence the big guys push down...
No, it has not occurred yet, we are simply speculating that, it is a possibility in an attempt to push price higher for the big one.

We are talking about the channel on the Daily TF.

Just watch that chart and see what happens.

Then, tell us what you see happening.
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  • #202
  • Edited 6:25am Jul 10, 2013 6:07am | Edited 6:25am
Hey Ghous

You got the Popcorn ready? LOL
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  • #203
  • Jul 10, 2013 6:33am Jul 10, 2013 6:33am
Something very interesting that I came across recently.

Why is the general public usually wrong?

Just look at the NU 4H excerpt. We have clear defined border to the downside. But we have numerous wicks testing the lows.

What does these spike below the range mean?

It's very likely that the big players are loading up on longs there. Who are they buying from? Yep
They have to accumulate positions slowly in order to keep the market from taking off. So they will let price get down as wide as they can and below that range many breakout traders will have short orders. Institutions take the opposite and price moves up. But not too much....

This might be an indication for further moves higher. And it's just a way of looking at PA I found worth sharing

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Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #204
  • Jul 10, 2013 6:38am Jul 10, 2013 6:38am
Quoting Helius
Something very interesting that I came across recently. Why is the general public usually wrong? Just look at the NU 4H excerpt. We have clear defined border to the downside. But we have numerous wicks testing the lows. What does these spike below the range mean? It's very likely that the big players are loading up on longs there. Who are they buying from? Yep They have to accumulate positions slowly in order to keep the market from taking off. So they will let price get down as wide as they can and below that range many breakout traders will...
Yeah, without understanding the order flow we may as well flush our money down the toilet.
  • #205
  • Jul 10, 2013 9:18am Jul 10, 2013 9:18am
Quoting Pinbar
Hey Ghous You got the Popcorn ready? LOL {image} {image}
You can place a check against that

lol



g.
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I believe . . .
  • #206
  • Jul 10, 2013 9:21am Jul 10, 2013 9:21am
Quoting Helius
Something very interesting that I came across recently. Why is the general public usually wrong? Just look at the NU 4H excerpt. We have clear defined border to the downside. But we have numerous wicks testing the lows. What does these spike below the range mean? It's very likely that the big players are loading up on longs there. Who are they buying from? Yep They have to accumulate positions slowly in order to keep the market from taking off. So they will let price get down as wide as they can and below that range many breakout traders will...
Great stuff Helius,

Consolidation boxes at swing points can be extremely telling to people willing to lend an ear to the market vibrations

g.
I believe . . .
  • #207
  • Jul 10, 2013 9:53am Jul 10, 2013 9:53am
My you have put some weight on. That's what popcorn does for you.
I know its not you.
  • #208
  • Jul 10, 2013 9:57am Jul 10, 2013 9:57am
Redid the front page. Took the indicators off. People don't need them and will only ask questions about how to use them.
Variety is the spice of life. Every time I see a post of Lamertrader, I confuse the chart with my own. Drives me nuts.
  • #209
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:03am Jul 10, 2013 10:03am
Hey, Ghous & Helius

If you are still in the GU trade, you are almost at TP.

Good job.

You guys are braver than me.
When I saw it dithering, that was it.
  • #210
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:07am Jul 10, 2013 10:07am
Quoting Pinbar
Hey, Ghous & Helius If you are still in the GU trade, you are almost at TP. Good job. You guys are braver than me. When I saw it dithering, that was it.
Hey Steve,

Your idea was right as it did start off slow. We traded the same setup but on different time frames. The daily calls for a bit more patience and the lower time frames allow you to be flexible and react to the current action. Once again neither approaches are wrong nor is it about being brave or timid. Its just about our individual comfort zones.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #211
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:12am Jul 10, 2013 10:12am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Steve, Your idea was right as it did start off slow. We traded the same setup but on different time frames. The daily calls for a bit more patience and the lower time frames allow you to be flexible and react to the current action. Once again neither approaches are wrong nor is it about being brave or timid. Its just about our individual comfort zones. g.

Thanks for the kind comments Ghous.

If it doesn't Bham, I always think the level is suspect.

I shall work on this.
  • #212
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:16am Jul 10, 2013 10:16am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Thanks for the kind comments Ghous. If it doesn't Bham, I always think the level is suspect. I shall work on this.
It does Bam a lot, but very often price does take off a little slow, and isn't necessarily a sign of weakness (just like Helius was talking)

g.
I believe . . .
  • #213
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:25am Jul 10, 2013 10:25am
Quoting ghous
{quote} It does Bam a lot, but very often price does take off a little slow, and isn't necessarily a sign of weakness (just like Helius was talking) g.

Mmm, I could easily confuse the sluggishness around a level with weakness and not see the bigger picture there.

More stuff to think about.
  • #214
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:29am Jul 10, 2013 10:29am
I realize it is a slow jacking up so they can buy more without putting the price up.
But how can we differentiate between this and genuine weakness where, price hangs around a level before breaking through.
  • #215
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:42am Jul 10, 2013 10:42am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Mmm, I could easily confuse the sluggishness around a level with weakness and not see the bigger picture there. More stuff to think about.
That is one reason I let go off the lower TFs. Just the mindset of being patient and letting the trade play out which is imperative for trading the higher TFs helped me eradicate unnecessary nerves, stress and haunting thoughts that I felt uncomfortable with due to the flexible, discretionary nature of lower time frame trading.

But I agree that setups like these can be tricky to manage, and even on the dailies you can get price dying out after printing solid setups before heading in the right direction and these can easily be the toughest setups to manage. Normally you do have factors to formulate some kind of a logical expectation though.

I'll get back with examples...

g.
I believe . . .
  • #216
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:45am Jul 10, 2013 10:45am
Thanks Ghous, appreciate it.

Take your time as, I have to crash out.
Got to take my wife to the airport early tomorrow morning.

Thanks again and look forward greatly to a new way of looking at things.
  • #217
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:49am Jul 10, 2013 10:49am
Quoting Pinbar
I realize it is a slow jacking up so they can buy more without putting the price up. But how can we differentiate between this and genuine weakness where, price hangs around a level before breaking through.
The answer once again lies in the actual bar to bar action and factors at play in the individual situation as opposed to a more generalized solution that you can apply on every situation. Once again this is getting into the most advanced and the most toughest aspects of trading order flow and fake outs. One that so far troubles me often as well when i come across it in real time.

Audience discretion advised...

g.
I believe . . .
  • #218
  • Jul 10, 2013 10:53am Jul 10, 2013 10:53am
Just my take on how I'd look for an entry on the LTF with a D1 bias.

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  • #219
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:10pm Jul 10, 2013 12:10pm
HEY Quidsey,

I was looking at the retest nefore and was thinking about adding to my position. Very nice rounded retest!
And yes Pinbar, almost there Took off slowly at the level but eventually it did as expected.
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Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #220
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:47pm Jul 10, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} The answer once again lies in the actual bar to bar action and factors at play in the individual situation as opposed to a more generalized solution that you can apply on every situation. Once again this is getting into the most advanced and the most toughest aspects of trading order flow and fake outs. One that so far troubles me often as well when i come across it in real time. Audience discretion advised... g.
One of my major research projects these days revolves around the idea of potentially considering setups that initially don't appeal but due to the unfolding action gain strength.

So we know when we see a Nice big bearish pin bar and if it doesn't break soon it weakens the setup and some people actually even pull off their orders if the pin bar doesn't break on the next bar. We know this from our James16 methods.

Can subsequent action after a mediocre setup actually provide it some strength?

Price slowly "but surely" ticking in favor of the setup, I have come to believe, has the power to strengthen an initially weak setup. (Again still part of my research and not something I can say with absolute confidence)

Two interesting cases occurred on the USD/CHF. You can find such examples on any TF but since I stick around the dailies mostly I'll be using that time frame with my examples.

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Both these setups are fake out setups running into close by trouble areas. You would shout a big "NO" if you see them initially. However notice how despite visiting resistance multiple times on both occasions price seems to still hold up at the LLS.

At this point recall Mike's wick plays and some of the failed Pin bars that you can think of. What essentially happens with a failed pin bar is that price fills in the wick proving that the order flow that created the wick was not strong enough and essentially only managed to create a "vacuum" for price to move through (price always chooses the path of least resistance).

Now if the wicks on these two fake out setups represented weak buying and if the order flow at the FTAs (marked in blue) were truly strong enough then price should have had no trouble trickling down into and filling in the wicks (and perhaps more). Instead we see that no daily bar actually closed under the LLS (the decision point of course) and eventually price broke higher.

These are 2 instances where the fake out setups are weak to start off with but as price holds around and despite close by FTAs and some resistance at them you get a feeling price is waiting for tip off. The first setup (to the left of the chart) shows a bar attacking the FTA and eventually closing under leaving behind a small wick on the upper side. The next bar which began the surge to the upside starts off by "filling in" that wick and never looking back. If this was truly a false setup price would have been filling in the wick of the fake out bar. On the second setup too notice the bar that breaks out and closes above the FTA and how we get a nice pullback to the FTA to confirm support at it before price continues on.

These are examples of situations where, the fake out bars them selves don't create any trade triggers but merely contribute to the overall story and the true trigger bars are created in the action that follows the initial fake outs.

g.
I believe . . .
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