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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,581
  • Jul 8, 2013 9:12am Jul 8, 2013 9:12am
Quoting fti
This nice relaxing living. Only problem is in that place properties have little resale value. Good for living, little economics. regards {image}
I would live there until I die then economics won't matter anyhow :-)
  • #41,582
  • Jul 8, 2013 10:33pm Jul 8, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting fti
{quote} keep slow climb on curve. regards now we know who the manipulator. he selling aud to prop up euros & cable. thinks is smart move because some idiots gave good figs reads to cable. now just need wait markets and cbs responds to it. lets see how e feels when cbs does concerted rate drops on him. maybe maybe not. will be interesting. he trapped my 1 foot in markets, so i gonna make him bleed. big time. regards
Dear FTI,
With reference to the above post , may i ask how "selling the AUD will prop up the EURO and CABLE " ?
Thank you for your time in advance.
  • #41,583
  • Jul 9, 2013 2:18am Jul 9, 2013 2:18am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Dear FTI, With reference to the above post , may i ask how "selling the AUD will prop up the EURO and CABLE " ? Thank you for your time in advance.

Hi appleboy

I know it is not me that you are directing this question at but this is a link to one of fti's posts, it explains the use and set up of all the kingdoms and more once you become familiar with it, it is not a direct answer to your posts but I believe you are enquiring on use of the kingdoms and crosses but have asked something specific instead, hope it helps.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post6419025

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,584
  • Jul 9, 2013 2:50am Jul 9, 2013 2:50am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi appleboy I know it is not me that you are directing this question at but this is a link to one of fti's posts, it explains the use and set up of all the kingdoms and more once you become familiar with it, it is not a direct answer to your posts but I believe you are enquiring on use of the kingdoms and crosses but have asked something specific instead, hope it helps. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post6419025 Regards Phil.
Hi Phil, Thanks for the linkback.
Yes it does help, but it only tells us to keep the emerging markets , ie, AUD in mind and to incorporate them into our MO, but it does not answer my question on how selling the AUD will prop up the Euro and Cable ?
What is the link between the dominant (Euro and Cable) and AUD ?
Seems to me that EUR/USD , GBP/USD , AUD/USD have a direct relationship (not inverse relationship)
So why would Selling AUD prop up the Euro and Cable ?
Is it Gold or is it the USD?
Or am i missing something here ?
Many thanks and greatest respect.
  • #41,585
  • Jul 9, 2013 3:29am Jul 9, 2013 3:29am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Hi Phil, Thanks for the linkback. Yes it does help, but it only tells us to keep the emerging markets , ie, AUD in mind and to incorporate them into our MO, but it does not answer my question on how selling the AUD will prop up the Euro and Cable ? What is the link between the dominant (Euro and Cable) and AUD ? Seems to me that EUR/USD , GBP/USD , AUD/USD have a direct relationship (not inverse relationship) So why would Selling AUD prop up the Euro and Cable ? Is it Gold or is it the USD? Or am i missing something here ? Many thanks and...


Hi appleboy

I can not answer that specific question, I do not myself fully understand all the relationships in the market, as far as I understand it we are to look for what is moving in the market and then use our skills/tools that we have practise with to find any good entries in that direction, the relations as to 'why' is not as important as getting the true direction correct.
I watched a program last night on how we make decisions, it turns out the more information we have the more our mind will only try to concentrate on the main thing in focus and the rest is 'perceived' from a best fit scenario from of our previous experiences, it showed how distorted/confused those 'other' pieces on the edge become.
Here is a link with some short videos previews of the program I watched last night, the first short video is quite revealing on our decision process. If you are interested in watching it I dare say this and the other episodes are out there somewhere.

http://braingames.nationalgeographic.com/episode/9/

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,586
  • Jul 9, 2013 3:34am Jul 9, 2013 3:34am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Dear FTI, With reference to the above post , may i ask how "selling the AUD will prop up the EURO and CABLE " ? Thank you for your time in advance.
maybe by selling AUDEUR and AUDGBP specifically?
  • #41,587
  • Jul 9, 2013 3:54am Jul 9, 2013 3:54am
Quoting kinky
{quote} maybe by selling AUDEUR and AUDGBP specifically?
hi Kinky,
Thanks for the suggestion, but i am unsure if we should draw reason from the crosses, as they are, after all the side show to the majors.
So any action in the majors will coil the crosses.
I think explanation can be obtained from the majors, if we only knew .....
  • #41,588
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:02am Jul 9, 2013 4:02am
Quoting fti
{quote} sit down and start slowly. impliment only things you initially understand. then slowly add things that you learn. regards do this 1st thing line the 4 majors side by side trade the most liquid market. the most liquid markets can be identified by 2 characeristics. 1 is spread. 2 is nummber of times it moves,blips if you like.
Someone pls help me out here.
FTI was talking with reference to USD , EUR , GBP , JPY
By 4 majors, does FTI mean :
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
and
EUR/GBP ? - wouldn't this be a cross ?
Or is the last pair something else (USD/CHF) ?
  • #41,589
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:05am Jul 9, 2013 4:05am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} hi Kinky, Thanks for the suggestion, but i am unsure if we should draw reason from the crosses, as they are, after all the side show to the majors. So any action in the majors will coil the crosses. I think explanation can be obtained from the majors, if we only knew .....
i am not sure.. i was thinking along these lines:

if i am a munipulator and i wanan prop up EUR. i will buy EURUSD on good news and suitable EUR crossess (whichever cross that has the line of least resistance, say EURAUD)..

so to another observer, he will see EURUSD is not in sync with other majors displaying dollar bulls charecteristics.. and he ask himself why isn't EURUSD in syn? so he has to look at other eur crosses (eg. EURAUD) to see why..

haha.. just guessing. any comments?
  • #41,590
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:08am Jul 9, 2013 4:08am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Someone pls help me out here. FTI was talking with reference to USD , EUR , GBP , JPY By 4 majors, does FTI mean : EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY and EUR/GBP ? - wouldn't this be a cross ? Or is the last pair something else (USD/CHF) ?
yup.. usdchf
  • #41,591
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:34am Jul 9, 2013 4:34am
YES! The cable turned around!

I was in serious trouble for a minute. Was in full attack yesterday when things turned on me. Rescue after rescue failed. I was up until 5am trying to manage my way out. Decided to reduce exposure, take some loss and let it ride over night.

Then just now BOOM! The news today turned things around and I'm out with minimal loss. Very very very lucky.

I need to reassess my trading so that never happens again.
  • #41,592
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:36am Jul 9, 2013 4:36am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Someone pls help me out here. FTI was talking with reference to USD , EUR , GBP , JPY By 4 majors, does FTI mean : EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY and EUR/GBP ? - wouldn't this be a cross ? Or is the last pair something else (USD/CHF) ?
I was always under the impression it was 3 kingdoms.

USD/JPY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Then also look at crosses of those to see what is going on.

... I guess if we are talking majors though you should also include USD/CHF and AUD/USD
  • #41,593
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:43am Jul 9, 2013 4:43am
Hi nomadic123

things have changed in the market since the thread started so now there are 4 kingdoms, the fourth being (USD/CHF) the safe haven in these troubled times.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,594
  • Jul 9, 2013 5:11am Jul 9, 2013 5:11am
Quoting nomadic123
YES! The cable turned around! I was in serious trouble for a minute. Was in full attack yesterday when things turned on me. Rescue after rescue failed. I was up until 5am trying to manage my way out. Decided to reduce exposure, take some loss and let it ride over night. Then just now BOOM! The news today turned things around and I'm out with minimal loss. Very very very lucky. I need to reassess my trading so that never happens again.
very lucky indeed u deserve an ice cold beer!
  • #41,595
  • Jul 9, 2013 6:56am Jul 9, 2013 6:56am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Hi Phil, Thanks for the linkback. Yes it does help, but it only tells us to keep the emerging markets , ie, AUD in mind and to incorporate them into our MO, but it does not answer my question on how selling the AUD will prop up the Euro and Cable ? What is the link between the dominant (Euro and Cable) and AUD ? Seems to me that EUR/USD , GBP/USD , AUD/USD have a direct relationship (not inverse relationship) So why would Selling AUD prop up the Euro and Cable ? Is it Gold or is it the USD? Or am i missing something here ? Many thanks and...
Hi appleboy
Not sure if this is the correct answer. Using aud to buy euro and pound.
  • #41,596
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:41am Jul 9, 2013 7:41am

"Generally analysis of the forexmarkets is confined to broad analysis of the relationship between,

1. The Allied stronghold currencies, eg the cable , EUR(lately), AUS, etc

2. The USD

3. The inferiors and exotics. eg DMK (retired), YEN, CHF, etc

Therefore the romance of the 3 kingdoms."


"the most efficient and core markets used to be the usd/dmk.

she has grown up and become the euro now.

this the reason why your core activities should be centered around the euro/usd.

then beside her you should have cable and yen, these the next layer of the core. then the swissy.

These called the majors, ie major markets."

Post 38,641


not sure which post this is , but these were fti's words.

based on the above, if i understood correctly, the 3 kingdoms is a geographic classification as a result of historical events like war and such...

Its the currency pairing between the 3 kingdoms that create the pairs that we trade.

and its my understanding that the main 4 pairs that form the core of our analysis should be

EUR/USD , GBP/USD , USD/JPY , USD/CHF.

And that both EUR/USD AND GBP/USD move in tandem and that both USD/JPY and USD/CHF move in tandem, and these 2 groups have an inverse relationship.


Subsequently , fti said ...

"after building the core in place you need incorporate the crosses between the 4 core majors in strategic manner so as to feel the flow of the majors."


What would the crosses btw the 4 cores be ?

All possible combinations are, EURO/JPY , EURO/GBP , GBP/CHF , CHF/JPY , GBP/JPY , EUR/CHF

And to concurrently make sense of it with the CORE seems too much for me to handle.

Am having trouble trying to ascertain if its right and also trying to "feel the flow"

What does this feel the flow mean, does it mean to feel the flow of value ie, is one currency increasing in value and thus the pair drops/ rises ?

How do you make sense all these information to come up with some actionable decision ?


  • #41,597
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:53am Jul 9, 2013 7:53am
Quoting liqidone
{quote} Hi I do not usually interfere with Fti's thread but I have noticed your question last couple weeks and will try to assist. Currency Flow...where is it? where is it going and why? If you look at the W EURAUD and the GBPAUD (bottom right hand) for the last few months the AUD has been sold off for the GBP & EUR. That currency has to go somewhere so someone is holding/selling cables and euro's waiting for a price to sell back into the market. This in turn will 'prop up' the EUR and GBP 'artificially' when you see the e$ and C$ not moving or...

Hi liqidone,
Thanks for the explanation.
This is still over my head, but i will sleep over it...
But shouldnt we be comparing charts of the same time frame ? ie, weekly / daily for all pairs ?
Thanks again and kind regards.
  • #41,598
  • Jul 9, 2013 11:04am Jul 9, 2013 11:04am
Hi appleboy

flow---- can be seen if you look at the market structure, something fti said to learn/read about at the beginning of this thread.

Feel---- that is difficult to explain, here is an extract of one fti's posts.

Once upon a time was 3 blind men.
They was puzzled what a elephant looks like.
so they went checked it out.
1 blind man was feeling the elephants trunk.
He concluded that an elephant was like a snake ...long and.....
the second blind man was feeling the leg.
He concluded that the elephant was like a big tree.
the 3rd blind man was feeling the elephants balls.
He concluded that..........................

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,599
  • Jul 9, 2013 11:46am Jul 9, 2013 11:46am
Sell the Aussie for Dollars, sell the Dollars for Euro and Cable. You guys sound like you are looking for the holy grail. Make your own minds up.
  • #41,600
  • Edited 2:34pm Jul 9, 2013 1:14pm | Edited 2:34pm
sell here, you must be kidding.

Have a saying, even hanging also must break and take a breath.



http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post6795476



regards
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