Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 21 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #401
  • Jul 4, 2013 5:21pm Jul 4, 2013 5:21pm
This is what I have on AUDCHF. My zones on H4 chart are a bit different. The H4 supply level you shorted at is a reaction to a previous H4 speedbump (see my chart). The H4 level would be great if price was making new supply and absorbing demand, lower lows and higher lows, but look at H4 trend, it's not doing that. I'd count on your H4 supply level in such a situation, a H4 trending market, it's not now.

My H4 supply is higher at 0.8806, it's a non-fresh supply zone either. First pullback didn't absorb any demand, it stopped at round number 0.8600. Having such a H4 supply a little bit higher, I would not sell now. The previous H4 supply (green one) is at the WK proximal line area. But since it's not an original area, I will wait for confirmation, and some demand being absorbed, that has not happened yet, so I would not short there.

Look at the trendline I have painted, that temporal H4 trend is being respected and levels above are not fresh and not a big imbalance, I just want proof that there were willing sellers left in the area. If area was fresh and original, I would have a limit sell order there!

See how first pullback to H4 supply zone was not a big reaction.

Let's see how it plays out, we never know what's gonna happen... but that's what I see on my charts and what I would do.
Thanks for your post and chart!

Alfonso


Quoting babalame
can any body see this Aud/Chf too entered a sell order will see how it plays out{image}
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #402
  • Jul 4, 2013 5:44pm Jul 4, 2013 5:44pm
Quoting panoramia
This is what I have on AUDCHF. My zones on H4 chart are a bit different. The H4 supply level you shorted at is a reaction to a previous H4 speedbump (see my chart). The H4 level would be great if price was making new supply and absorbing demand, lower lows and higher lows, but look at H4 trend, it's not doing that. I'd count on your H4 supply level in such a situation, a H4 trending market, it's not now. My H4 supply is higher at 0.8806, it's a non-fresh supply zone either. First pullback didn't absorb any demand, it stopped at round number 0.8600....

ok thanks for the heads up
All market movement are as a result of supply and demand
  • #403
  • Jul 4, 2013 5:50pm Jul 4, 2013 5:50pm
Hello Jasmina (Larra),

Remember the H1 short trade you posted the other day? I mentioned that speedbump was not a good one because it would go against current H1 trend right there and it was not at a D1 supply area, D1 supply is a bit higher and not fresh.

Take a look at what happened to the H1 speedbump supply, it was overshot (absorbed) when price reached it first time. It was broken by 2 pips. Price dropped froom entry price at 91.64 about 42 pips, so it would have been a breakeven at least.

The thing is that if the level would have been a good level, with a big imbalance, it wouldn't have been penetrated so much or even absorbed, which is what happened.

These levels can work many times, I am not saying they will never work, but they are not super higher probability so I always skip them and wait for price to either reach opposing D1 supply or wait for brand new supply levels being formed while previous demand is being absorbed again.

Hope that helps!



Quoting larra
Hello to all members. I know that Alfonso is not here right now, but what do you guys think of this speedbump. AUDJPY trend is down in higher timeframe.{image} Am I missing something? Any thoughts? Once again, sorry if my english is not perfect
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #404
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:48pm Jul 4, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting panoramia
My H4 supply is higher at 0.8806, it's a non-fresh supply zone either. First pullback didn't absorb any demand, it stopped at round number 0.8600. Having such a H4 supply a little bit higher, I would not sell now. The previous H4 supply (green one) is at the WK proximal line area. But since it's not an original area, I will wait for confirmation, and some demand being absorbed, that has not happened yet, so I would not short there..
In checking my weekly levels with what you mentioned here I noted that my supply levels were way higher up. I then tried to find out why you had you levels where they were. On my chart there is a doji candle in that area but more importantly a gap. So, am I correct in thinking that the gap down in price is what brough this area to your attention to then make that a weekly level?
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #405
  • Jul 4, 2013 11:05pm Jul 4, 2013 11:05pm
Thankyou Alfonso!!!

I thought your Webinar was great. You explained things very clearly. It is good of you to give your time in this way to help others, along with the many chart examples you post. I don't see there is any gain for you except for helping us. I wish you success in your trading and once again I appreciate all your efforts. I look forward to your next webinar.
  • #406
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:13am Jul 5, 2013 2:13am
Once again, thank you very much for your efforts in explaining.
Every accomplisment starts with decision to try.
  • #407
  • Jul 5, 2013 4:35am Jul 5, 2013 4:35am
Quoting panoramia
Look at how brand new H1 levels of demand were formed on NZDUSD, fresh level after fresh level, giving us entries all the way up, following the H1 trendline. H1 CHART: There is a fresh level at 0.7800 which could be another long entry, but the highs have not been broken, so I wouldn't take it. If that supply on H4 had been absorbed I would take it. This long entry might work but it's a bit more aggressive without having supply taken out. {image} H4 CHART: See how the H4 supply area hasn't been violated yet, buying on the H1 demand area mentioned...
Alfonso,
Just wondering if this two H1 demand levels in the middle look (those which are not fresh yet) is really or not what we are looking for. I mean, there were not a great imbalance on those levels, were it? As well I see there were not so "clean", I mean, so many candlestick movement... Sorry, I'm just trying to understand how to idenfify the levels well. I hope my questions don't bother you. I know I'm just beguining in s/d trading, trying my best.

I appreciate your undertanding and patience.


Thanks
toni
  • #408
  • Jul 5, 2013 5:56am Jul 5, 2013 5:56am
Hi Alfonso,

nice work! Did you record your webinar? You were talking about Youtube but I couldn´t find it. Did you upload it?

Cheers
  • #409
  • Jul 5, 2013 6:23am Jul 5, 2013 6:23am
Quoting Christianfx
Hi Alfonso, nice work! Did you record your webinar? You were talking about Youtube but I couldn´t find it. Did you upload it? Cheers
Hi,

go to post #373, there you could find the video.

Regards,
Peter
  • #410
  • Jul 5, 2013 7:07am Jul 5, 2013 7:07am
thanks Lion, I missed that
  • #411
  • Jul 6, 2013 1:46am Jul 6, 2013 1:46am
just wanted to say thanks for all you've done in this thread. I trade S&D and hope to be able to contribute when I can if it's cool with the thread master.

If I post charts they will not have any indi's on them as I don't use them at all.

DetroitMoney
Trade smart. OR JUST DON'T TRADE!!!
  • #412
  • Jul 7, 2013 2:29am Jul 7, 2013 2:29am
Alfonso - thanks so much for the webinar mate: Incredibly informative !
  • #413
  • Edited 8:40am Jul 7, 2013 7:49am | Edited 8:40am
Quote
On this thread we're doing swing trading, so please only post H1/H4 entries, not lower. We don't want scalp on this thread, sorry! Hope you understand

I'll take my leave then.

I trade CL GC and NG futures and short term.

I will still read this thread though.

I do have a question about your zone indi though. Could the code be converted for ninjatrader? TIA

DM
Trade smart. OR JUST DON'T TRADE!!!
  • #414
  • Jul 8, 2013 9:59am Jul 8, 2013 9:59am
alfonso, thanks a lot for the updated spreadsheet. thats very helpfull for me - i can compare my selected levels with your ones.


Quoting panoramia
For those interested, these area the D1 and WK supply and demand levels I've on the currency pairs that I trade. I used the SD spreadsheet I created, I use it extensively. You can download original spreadsheet from another thread I have or download it from this post as well. If you want to know how to use is and how to install it, visit the thread that explains it. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=424894 I have not traded today and won't be trading tomorrow, I am away. Also, another of my rules is not to trade during big news...
  • #415
  • Jul 8, 2013 1:52pm Jul 8, 2013 1:52pm
Hello Alfonso
Thank you for this thread, it is really interesting.
what do you think about this possibility? it is a valid supply?
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  • #416
  • Jul 8, 2013 2:22pm Jul 8, 2013 2:22pm
Quoting panoramia
I will be organizing a second Webinar next week, probably on Tuesday 9th at NY Open, like this time. Those who are interested and have not yet sent me their emails through a private message, do it. I need your email in order to add you to the mailing list. Next webninar will be shorter, we'll focus mainly on how to score a level based on: 1. STRENGTH OF DEPARTURE 2. NUMBER OF PULLBACKS 3. PROFIT MARGIN. 3:1 4. BIGGER PICTURE 5. TIME AT LEVEL 6. ARRIVAL And then we'll do some live analysis. This time it won't take 3 hours! Looking forward to your...

Hi Alfonso,

do you already know, if the webinar will take place tomorrow?
Thanks.

Regards,
Peter
  • #417
  • Jul 8, 2013 5:35pm Jul 8, 2013 5:35pm
Hey alfonso, Will you be holding a webinar tomorrow?
  • #418
  • Jul 9, 2013 3:34am Jul 9, 2013 3:34am
I won't be holding the webinar today because I'm still away, will be away the whole week. I have my laptop with me, but I need to configure it for recording, test the small portable headphones with my laptop as well as testing connection speed. I will test it at the end of the day and will let you know when the next webinar will be. If all goes fine with the tests, it will be this Thursday.


Sorry for the inconvenience!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #419
  • Jul 9, 2013 6:15am Jul 9, 2013 6:15am
great alfonso,i am already excited for your next webinar.

best regards, ts



Quoting panoramia
I won't be holding the webinar today because I'm still away, will be away the whole week. I have my laptop with me, but I need to configure it for recording, test the small portable headphones with my laptop as well as testing connection speed. I will test it at the end of the day and will let you know when the next webinar will be. If all goes fine with the tests, it will be this Thursday. Sorry for the inconvenience! Alfonso
  • #420
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:18am Jul 9, 2013 8:18am
I am long on CADJPY H1. At BE already, after the high was broken.


H1 is in an uptrend as well as higher timeframes. H1 Trendline up, all H1 demand areas are being respected and all H1 supply areas are being violated. The only thing I can do is go long at fresh H1 demand levels that go with current trend.

My TP is near the D1 supply area. Let's see if it wants to reach that area.
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