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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,561
  • Jul 6, 2013 12:47am Jul 6, 2013 12:47am
hello everyone
i would like to ask a Question to senior traders or anyone who knows the answer
why there is a spike above or below the market price when there is news release like NFP , GDP etc the market moves 40-50 pips within seconds i want to know the reason of this spike in terms of demand and supply
thanks
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  • #41,562
  • Jul 6, 2013 2:40am Jul 6, 2013 2:40am
Quoting jonyl_pips
{quote} Nice observation and analysis there, frz...BTW, thanks for the v. Have a great weekend!
i'm thanking to you as well,
have a good weekend.
steady as she goes
  • #41,563
  • Jul 6, 2013 2:41am Jul 6, 2013 2:41am
Quoting AllanS
{quote} Yes. Farmer Brown crept out one dark night and set fire to Farmer Smith's house. But when Brown got home, his own house was in flames! Both men ended up dead in a ditch, hungry, cold, penniless and lonely. Dogs chewed their bones.
indeed.
steady as she goes
  • #41,564
  • Jul 6, 2013 2:48am Jul 6, 2013 2:48am
Quoting gaurav.132
hello everyone i would like to ask a Question to senior traders or anyone who knows the answer why there is a spike above or below the market price when there is news release like NFP , GDP etc the market moves 40-50 pips within seconds i want to know the reason of this spike in terms of demand and supply thanks {image}
Hi Gaurav
Here is a link to the post where i gathered together FTI posts relating Figures
Enjoy reading
Hope it hepls
Wish nice weekend for everybody
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #41,565
  • Jul 6, 2013 5:12am Jul 6, 2013 5:12am
Quoting gaurav.132
hello everyone i would like to ask a Question to senior traders or anyone who knows the answer why there is a spike above or below the market price when there is news release like NFP , GDP etc the market moves 40-50 pips within seconds i want to know the reason of this spike in terms of demand and supply thanks {image}
imho, with this new electronic trading, it's just because everyone probably withdraws bids before news. So probably book is so thin that with very little money you move it alot(monday opening stop hunt anyone?)

after it moved a bit, stops cascade, etc. further exagerating the speed(the speed, not the move - the move might be in the "correct"direction and the initial level may be revisited only months later).
  • #41,566
  • Jul 6, 2013 7:11am Jul 6, 2013 7:11am
Quoting kinky
{quote} I don't understand why do they need electronic balance that measure in micrograms and why do they g row nothing in the end? Can someone pls explain to me in simple terms, dun understand the economics..
the simple way think is, that every one supposed work hard and live to enjoy life.
but these days every one born , gets an education , refuse to work and expect to be rich to abuse others.
they use microsfot gates as role models, use the systems, extort everyone , so that they no need work.

whats so hard to understand?
everyone has choice.
carry axe and changkul work or carry the sword and extort.
oh now have gun. even no need chop, jusr pull lever.



regards
  • #41,567
  • Jul 6, 2013 7:18am Jul 6, 2013 7:18am
Quoting snowly
{quote} imho, with this new electronic trading, it's just because everyone probably withdraws bids before news. So probably book is so thin that with very little money you move it alot(monday opening stop hunt anyone?) after it moved a bit, stops cascade, etc. further exagerating the speed(the speed, not the move - the move might be in the "correct"direction and the initial level may be revisited only months later).
in real markets , bid and offer go thru a time process get in to and out of access, so markets stable.
electronic robots use nano seconds and requotes deny price access.
last few days someone hacking my isp access when they want trap positions.
these derivative markets untradable already professionally.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-four-arrested


regards
  • #41,568
  • Jul 6, 2013 8:56am Jul 6, 2013 8:56am
Quoting kinky
{quote} I don't understand why do they need electronic balance that measure in micrograms and why do they g row nothing in the end? Can someone pls explain to me in simple terms, dun understand the economics..
Trust between honorable people makes the world go round. When people break trust, we're forced to spend a disproportionate amount of time licking our wounds and guarding our backs (reading fine print, hiring lawyers etc). Much of our mental energy will be devoted to trying to even the score. Time, creativity, and resources better spent on improving our business etc will be wasted. Optimism will be replaced by pessimism; trust will be replaced by suspicion; hope, by cynicism; honesty, by corruption; happiness, by bitterness and anger. Nothing great will ever grow in this sour soil.
  • #41,569
  • Jul 6, 2013 11:45am Jul 6, 2013 11:45am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} Hi Gaurav Here is a link to the post where i gathered together FTI posts relating Figures Enjoy reading Hope it hepls Wish nice weekend for everybody regards Michael

thanks alot michael for providing the link and FTI for the useful information
  • #41,570
  • Jul 6, 2013 12:30pm Jul 6, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting fti
{quote} in real markets , bid and offer go thru a time process get in to and out of access, so markets stable. electronic robots use nano seconds and requotes deny price access. last few days someone hacking my isp access when they want trap positions. these derivative markets untradable already professionally. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-four-arrested regards
wasn't talking about retail; here, its clear - we're screwed by widening the spreads and requotes and crap. I trade news pretty often, but:

1. at most have 3:1 leverage;
2. never put the offer later than 30 secs before the announcement and usually limit order, not market order.
3. usually don't try to save them if going wrong. If announcement is different than what I expected, I just close and swallow the loss. Still, I manage ~6 outta 7, so it's worth the loss.

was talking about how much it takes to move the market; i.e. - with 100mln you probably can move e/u 100pips in wellington on monday morning(let's say) and probably 5 pips when both London and NY are on. I guess news time books are very thin and you can munch through them without much money so there isn't much of a philosophy to clear stops a long way? You should know this better, though nowdays, with electronic crap instead of phones things can get canceled or placed instantly?

I mean, look at last nfp usd/jpy. It's positioned to clear 95, number is good, spikes to 96.4, than they turn it, go to 94.98(clear the suckers) than goes to 97.2 and beyond(don't remember, was out at 97.2 or so but I think it went over 97.5 that day? Traded 2 days non stop, went to sleep didn't wait for ny close, so don't remember).

What'd be the explanation, on a good number, after spike to 96.4, to get back at 95 if not to clear stops? Market is long usd/jpy, goes into nfp, it's already 7 big figures below top the day before, mm pushes it lower, everyone just drop part of their position pushing it even lower, number is out, it's good, spikes up, push it back down into stops to square the yen longs, than raises 2.5 big figures. Sure, it's just a theory as I can't see the books, but from 96.4 to 95... there aren't many explanations beside covering the yen longs into stops.
  • #41,571
  • Jul 6, 2013 11:47pm Jul 6, 2013 11:47pm
input is missing.
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  • #41,572
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:34am Jul 7, 2013 1:34am
Quoting fti
input is missing. {image}
I was going to reply FT but... I just need to check my email, write this text message, get the latest from Bloomberg, attend to my positions, look up "alcoholism" on Wikipedia, call my mum, take a photo of myself, post photo of myself on facebook, buy that song, listen to that song, download that app, update that other app, check my email again, reply to text message, get the latest from Bloomberg, attend to my positions, look up alcoholism on Wikipedia (cause I've forgotten already), call my lady, listen to that song again, delete that app cause it sux... won't be a minute sir
Time hides Nothing
  • #41,573
  • Jul 7, 2013 3:45am Jul 7, 2013 3:45am
Hi all

I found this site last week, there is a lot of free good quality info on there (I am not suggesting you sign up, I have not) and believe is in line with what is here, this link is about 'cause and effect' and I thought it may help some understand a little more.

http://www.informativetraders.com/index.php/

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,574
  • Jul 7, 2013 6:08am Jul 7, 2013 6:08am
Quoting fti
{quote} what is it you want explained? i just describing to you what i seeing and hearing. what can you benefit from hindsight. wants point analyse shit? i am not a doctor. actually i am very busy trying deal with this manipulators. they trading my retail blotter plus disturbing my line access. just cut loss today, on a trade when markets was rioted by not even is valid stuff. the fig compiled for months , suddenly becomes so important to run markets hundreds pips. then the iron lady announces no change, and they run it the other way 100s pips....
i had been thinking.
feels a little sorry for appleboy.
Seems i am in bad bad mood and being unfriendly.
i guess is true.
I was positioned big and well into short cables, only to cut loss, snooked out by markit figs rally, only to see a big drop and unable chase the drop afterwards.
is real stupid timing.
But it happens in markets. MM didn't do well, but is not anyone's fault.

So falls off my saddle again. appleboy a newbie comes chatting, during a bad time. So if i had been unfriendly, i apologise. didn't mean too but happens.


regards
  • #41,575
  • Jul 7, 2013 6:41am Jul 7, 2013 6:41am
Quoting phil13
Hi all I found this site last week, there is a lot of free good quality info on there (I am not suggesting you sign up, I have not) and believe is in line with what is here, this link is about 'cause and effect' and I thought it may help some understand a little more. http://www.informativetraders.com/index.php/ Regards Phil.
I must say Thank you phil!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #41,576
  • Jul 7, 2013 11:23am Jul 7, 2013 11:23am
Quoting fti
{quote} i had been thinking. feels a little sorry for appleboy. Seems i am in bad bad mood and being unfriendly. i guess is true. I was positioned big and well into short cables, only to cut loss, snooked out by markit figs rally, only to see a big drop and unable chase the drop afterwards. is real stupid timing. But it happens in markets. MM didn't do well, but is not anyone's fault. So falls off my saddle again. appleboy a newbie comes chatting, during a bad time. So if i had been unfriendly, i apologise. didn't mean too but happens. regards...
Not at all, Sir, i am already much obliged to you for the opportunity to be your pupil from afar.
Am working hard towards the day that i can humbly show you my blotter without having to be ashamed of it...
  • #41,577
  • Jul 8, 2013 4:09am Jul 8, 2013 4:09am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Not at all, Sir, i am already much obliged to you for the opportunity to be your pupil from afar. Am working hard towards the day that i can humbly show you my blotter without having to be ashamed of it...

Inserted Video


regards
  • #41,578
  • Jul 8, 2013 5:05am Jul 8, 2013 5:05am
Quoting phil13
Hi all I found this site last week, there is a lot of free good quality info on there (I am not suggesting you sign up, I have not) and believe is in line with what is here, this link is about 'cause and effect' and I thought it may help some understand a little more. http://www.informativetraders.com/index.php/ Regards Phil.
Thanks Phil.

regards
  • #41,579
  • Jul 8, 2013 7:32am Jul 8, 2013 7:32am
Quoting phil13
Hi all I found this site last week, there is a lot of free good quality info on there (I am not suggesting you sign up, I have not) and believe is in line with what is here, this link is about 'cause and effect' and I thought it may help some understand a little more. http://www.informativetraders.com/index.php/ Regards Phil.


regards
  • #41,580
  • Jul 8, 2013 7:34am Jul 8, 2013 7:34am
This nice relaxing living.
Only problem is in that place properties have little resale value.
Good for living, little economics.

regards
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