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HCR-LCS + SFP Research thread

  • #61
  • Jul 5, 2013 1:29am Jul 5, 2013 1:29am
Quoting ghous
{quote} People tend to think of PPZs as doors. The stronger you hit them the more the chance that you'll break the locks and barge in. Whereas a lot of timesPPZs work like trampolines. The bigger the force you hit them with, the higher you will bounce. One of the most popular myths revolving around with new traders is that bars with big strong ranges are always reminiscent of strong persistent momentum . Essentially, it all boils down to location. Such bars heading out and away from important levels hold true to what is believed about them. Such...
Thanks for the explanation Ghous

Slowly the pieces of the puzzle are coming together.
Still a long way to go on this endless journey but, it gets more exciting the longer we tread the road, like life.
Eventually we will arrive at a place we can call home.
  • #62
  • Jul 5, 2013 1:32am Jul 5, 2013 1:32am
yo wash,

you should put those .mq4 files inside the "indicators folder" which can be found here. -- folder of your platform>experts>indicators
and the template file should go here. --folder of your platform>templates


hope that helps sir..
  • #63
  • Edited 2:00am Jul 5, 2013 1:46am | Edited 2:00am
Quoting wash
i down load the indicators and template but si not working on my chart can some one help?
You are using Metatrader4 I imagine or they will not work.

See revised post 1 for how to install the indicators.
  • #64
  • Jul 5, 2013 1:59am Jul 5, 2013 1:59am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} You are using Metatrader4 I imagine or they will not work. Make sure all the indicators go in the proper directory, the script in its directory and the template in its directory. See image {image}
Ah, I beg to differ, but there are 2 Templates folders, I believe your drawing points to the wrong one?

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #65
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:03am Jul 5, 2013 2:03am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Ah, I beg to differ, but there are 2 Templates folders, I believe your drawing points to the wrong one?


OK, I changed it for ease of use.

Thanks for pointing that out.
  • #66
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:07am Jul 5, 2013 2:07am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Thanks for the explanation Ghous Slowly the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. Still a long way to go on this endless journey but, it gets more exciting the longer we tread the road, like life. Eventually we will arrive at a place we can call home.
One of my aha-moments when I heared Sam Seiden say

"It's not how much time price spent at a level. It's the opposite - the less time price spends at a level the stronger it is."

And it makes sense when you think about it. A wild move up (or down) suggests a great imbalance between buyers and sellers. Due to a rapid take-off from a level many orders will be left unfilled plus you will very likely have orders sitting underneath (in case of a bullish move) the level that will get triggered when we get back to it. Just look at the attached chart and how price reacted each time when we traded back into the area.

This thinking can be applied to trading SFPs as well.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-07-05_0854.png Size: 84 KB
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #67
  • Edited 2:53am Jul 5, 2013 2:11am | Edited 2:53am
Quoting Helius
{quote} One of my aha-moments when I heared Sam Seiden say "It's not how much time price spent at a level. It's the opposite - the less time price spends at a level the stronger it is." And it makes sense when you think about it. A wild move up (or down) suggests a great imbalance between buyers and sellers. Due to a rapid take-off from a level many orders will be left unfilled plus you will very likely have orders sitting underneath (in case of a bullish move) the level that will get triggered when we get back to it. Just look at the attached...

That sounds very true.

Helius, what's your take on GU for an SFP here?
Would you consider this area to be too far back in time or valid?
This monthly level from 2000 may show us some reaction.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #68
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:27am Jul 5, 2013 3:27am
Anyone else experiencing page 4 loading extremely slowly in your browser?
  • #69
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:52am Jul 5, 2013 3:52am
Quoting Pinbar
Anyone else experiencing page 4 loading extremely slowly in your browser?

No.

Question:

How significant the PBT move has to be? Yesterday on the EURCHF price closed above the the daily HCR. But only very very slightly. I guess that wouldn't count according to jarroo's methodology, right?
  • #70
  • Jul 5, 2013 4:07am Jul 5, 2013 4:07am
Quoting Pinbar
VERY IMPORTANT. Target areas. I have not mentioned this yet but, it is probably time to mention how Jarroo will set his targets for any trade taken from these levels. As we know, Price Breaking Through a level is related to the time frame on which this occurs and, so is the target area. If we see PBT&CB on a weekly chart, we may go down to the Daily, 4H or even lower to enter the trade via a trigger such as small tf PA. Jarroo uses the Price Breaks Through & Closes Below (PBT&CB) bar's CLOSE & LOW on the time frame it occurs on as the initial target...
Bang! And there was light
I know where I as wrong - i though about jarroo trades as long term trades. And that's where i got confused sayin "Damn - how can his be that with the jarroo method i should stay in the trade while with Tom's SFP I should go to the other direction.
The picture is now complete Thank you pinbar it makes perfectly sense to quit a jarroo trade "or at least do sg. at the first FTA Wick"

Lessen learned:
Either go deep down into some stuff until you understand it 100% or don't care about it. Otherwise it will just messes up your head...

Thank you pinbar - you made my day!
It's all psychology...
  • #71
  • Edited 4:56am Jul 5, 2013 4:36am | Edited 4:56am
Quoting Almost
{quote} No. Question: How significant the PBT move has to be? Yesterday on the EURCHF price closed above the the daily HCR. But only very very slightly. I guess that wouldn't count according to jarroo's methodology, right?

I'd want to see a much higher close above and a pullback to create space.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #72
  • Edited 4:50am Jul 5, 2013 4:39am | Edited 4:50am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Bang! And there was light I know where I as wrong - i though about jarroo trades as long term trades. And that's where i got confused sayin "Damn - how can his be that with the jarroo method i should stay in the trade while with Tom's SFP I should go to the other direction. The picture is now complete Thank you pinbar it makes perfectly sense to quit a jarroo trade "or at least do sg. at the first FTA Wick" Lessen learned: Either go deep down into some stuff until you understand it 100% or don't care about it. Otherwise...
You are doing fine my friend.
Better than I did, it took me at least a couple of years to work that out and only after Jarroo mentioned the SFP.
I could not understand why he suddenly introduced the SFP and it confused the daylights out of me, till it clicked.

And, if we take a PBT&CB a LCS and price closes past the SFP, what does that tell us?
  • #73
  • Jul 5, 2013 5:02am Jul 5, 2013 5:02am
Quoting Helius
{quote} One of my aha-moments when I heared Sam Seiden say "It's not how much time price spent at a level. It's the opposite - the less time price spends at a level the stronger it is." And it makes sense when you think about it. A wild move up (or down) suggests a great imbalance between buyers and sellers. Due to a rapid take-off from a level many orders will be left unfilled plus you will very likely have orders sitting underneath (in case of a bullish move) the level that will get triggered when we get back to it. Just look at the attached...
I was thinking about it. Many times it works and many not.
If this is true that big long candles are smart money or whatever big corporation. why when price come back it push price again up ?
i dont think big corporation would hold their position to BE.. they shoud unload their position on some distribution higher.
so why it sometimes works thats mystery to me
  • #74
  • Edited 5:32am Jul 5, 2013 5:12am | Edited 5:32am
Quoting Helius
{quote} One of my aha-moments when I heared Sam Seiden say "It's not how much time price spent at a level. It's the opposite - the less time price spends at a level the stronger it is." And it makes sense when you think about it. A wild move up (or down) suggests a great imbalance between buyers and sellers. Due to a rapid take-off from a level many orders will be left unfilled plus you will very likely have orders sitting underneath (in case of a bullish move) the level that will get triggered when we get back to it. Just look at the attached...
Hey Helius
I have a few questions about your chart.

Maybe I misunderstood your chart as, it appears that, that level is not an SFP level?
Also, the new lower low on the right, shouldn't it create a new lower SFP level?
And last but not least, it was mentioned in the Fail Better thread that, Tom will not trade the SFP on H4?

Perhaps, you were just pointing out the momentum point you were making?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #75
  • Jul 5, 2013 6:30am Jul 5, 2013 6:30am
I drew the level sloppy the first time to just outline the idea but I think it is more complex and needs some further and more accurate explanation

So here my next try to unload the very complex idea behind it.

1) you will often see price reverse ahead of the level. Especially when we trade back into an area for the first time (like on that blow arrow) Just keep this in mind and start paying attention to it. You will experience it a lot. Do we counteract this by seeting a limit oder a few pips shy of the level? could be, but this will go at the costs of your risk-reward-ratio. (If you just trade a blind touch without SFP confirmation)

2) With every time we come back into a level it gets weaker. Why? We will pick up more and more unfilled orders that have been left at that area. This can be clearly seen by the way we push through the level futher and further with every time we come back to the level.
This way we will also pick up some stop orders below the level who are waiting for the breakout. The more often a level has been "validated" the more obvious it becomes to the "general" public and breakout traders will just have their orders beneath the level. The big bus will anticipate...

Quote
If this is true that big long candles are smart money or whatever big corporation. why when price come back it push price again up ?
i dont think big corporation would hold their position to BE.. they shoud unload their position on some distribution higher.
so why it sometimes works thats mystery to me

NO, the big guys for sure will not let their profits run towards B/E when we come back to the level. The will long ago have closed it. BUT What moves the markets are the orders waiting at the level that have not been filled due to the sudden takeoff the time before.

This is not a system or a method. But a way of looking at price and understanding whats behind the price action - like Ghous said before. How you trade it can vary in a lot of ways. Some people just trade the "blind touch" (have orders already waiting for the bounce back up), some wait for a PA confirmation (and a SFP is just one of it) ....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-07-05_1312.png Size: 108 KB
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #76
  • Edited 7:04am Jul 5, 2013 6:44am | Edited 7:04am
The actual GU chart is very similar to the UJ one from above.

Again on the second touch we did not quiet make it down there. On the third and 4th touch we also spent more time at the level and not take of immediately. By the forth time people will start waiting to trade the breakout.
By the 5th touch people will probably think that it will take up again but this would be a little too obvious, right

Did you notice, that this is the complete opposite what they teach in all the trading books: the more touches a level has, the stronger it is.
But again, 95% of all traders fail. Maybe it's time to think outside the box

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-07-05_1340.png Size: 23 KB
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #77
  • Jul 5, 2013 7:10am Jul 5, 2013 7:10am
Interesting take you have on it Helius.
I am going to take some time to get my head around it properly.

Many thanks.
  • #78
  • Jul 5, 2013 7:55am Jul 5, 2013 7:55am
Let's see how the weekly candle closes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #79
  • Jul 5, 2013 1:09pm Jul 5, 2013 1:09pm
Yes, will be interesting. Plus 1.5015 area might be an interesting place to look for a short trade with a rounded-retest-scenario.
I will be posting my Sunday's analysis on a few interesting setups for the upcoming week if you guys don't mind.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #80
  • Edited 1:59pm Jul 5, 2013 1:37pm | Edited 1:59pm
Hi Pinbar,

Nice thread,

I trade the same SR Level very much as what you done.

Keep it UP!!

Twinsummit
Trade what you SEE, don't trade what you FEEL. Be Smart! - (Webadoi)
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