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  • #1,061
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:24am Jul 4, 2013 9:24am
I just don't see the advantage of using XSupertrend. If you compare the signals using Stochastics -vs- XSupertrend, is possible you could've missed this whole uptrend on U/J? You're talking with just a 300 pips TP with each signal using stochs with minimal DD. That's over 1000 pips
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  • #1,062
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:26am Jul 4, 2013 9:26am
Quote
Erebus
How about if you took the break of the line starting about June 25 ?

I think this gives you 4 entries and probably more pips

Hi Erebus

I am a creature of the pullback. I tend not to like initial congestion zone breakouts or the types of break that you point out; prefer to wait for a retrace. Otherwise generally I have found that my stop losses need to be greater, which restricts my risk:reward. I realise that there are times when I miss the boat, but there are also times when my entry is spot on and better than the initial break.

Also, on the break you suggest, I expect I would have moved the stop loss to break even after the initial fall. This would have taken me out at nothing on that trade. I also like the pullback entry point because after the pullback if the trade goes in your direction to the previous low (in this example) you know it has to take that out for you to get to target and bring your stop loss to break even would be above the new resistance level which is safer. Swings and roundabouts I guess.
John
  • #1,063
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:43am Jul 4, 2013 9:43am
Hi TCO,
thanks you very much for your big works, I have sett your ea on more demo.

I have noticed I got much time alert with invalid stop and so on, window, is possible to turn off the alert?
Thanks you.
Best Regards,
Antonio
  • #1,064
  • Jul 4, 2013 10:22am Jul 4, 2013 10:22am
Quote
MKFX Trader
I just don't see the advantage of using XSupertrend. If you compare the signals using Stochastics -vs- XSupertrend, is possible you could've missed this whole uptrend on U/J? You're talking with just a 300 pips TP with each signal using stochs with minimal DD. That's over 1000 pips

MKFX

I don't trade the UJ so wouldn't have looked at this. However, I have attached a chart. On the daily it looks like longs only, although I don't know why the MA ribbon on the hourly shows short positions only as I thought the MA ribbon was supposed to replicate the trend on the daily but on the hourly chart.

Anyways.....so we are singing from the same hymn-sheet, if we assume longs only per your hypothesis, then I would have had 2 long trades (1 @ 97.75 on 24 June and 1 @ 97.58 on 26 June). My first trade would have been a loss of 80 pips (supertrend allows me to adopt a tighter stop loss because generally mean I will take the loss rather than carry a larger drawdown and wait for the creation of another trade opportunity as a result) and my second a 2.5% profit, giving 1.5% profit overall. I also believe that you might have moved your stop loss up to break even on your first trade as it had been up over 150 pips before it came back to entry before it took off. If not, then I presume you might be using 175 pips of something of that order, giving you your 5 trades to get 1,000 pips between them. That is good and a very good chart example for a linear line. However, you have to compare like with like.

If you are using 175 pips stop loss as your risk each time then 1,000 pips profit is 5.7 times your risk. Say if you risk 1% on each trade, that is 5.7%. The UJ rose about 250 pips from most of your entry levels so my second trade would have made 3.1% (using 80 pip stop loss and replacing 250 target with 200 that I use to replicate your example) and my first trade would have lost, so I would have netted 2.1% against your 5.7%. But this is flawed in one simple factor. It doesn't compare apples with apples. If you are prepared to risk up to 5 trades (and indeed it might be up to 8 trades) and I were only to risk 1 trade, I doubt you would be risking as much as I on each trade because your stops are greater and you know you might be in for at least 5 trades deep (4 of your trades were around the same level meaning fingers and legs crossed that the market didn't turn at that point). So say I can risk 4 times what you risk to be in the same position (I could say 5), my return would have been 12.4% on my winner and 4% loss on my loser, netting 8.4%, using your 250 target level as exit. This is the true comparison with your 5.7% return. Of course, this depends upon your stop loss. If it is not 175, but 100 then your return would have been 10%, similar to what I would have achieved.

All I am trying to do with supertrend is to get fewer trades, a tighter stop loss, and not load up the boat with trades around the same level which may result in a coin toss aka. 'double or quits' scenario. With a tighter stop AND fewer trades I can up my initial risk substantially, compared to what it would be if I thought I could be in 5 deep.

I have attached a NZDUSD from past week. Daily 20/50 EMA shows shorts only. You would have up to 8 trades now on average at 50 pips underwater on 8 trades. Yes, it might come round and make lots of profit but, personally, I just wouldn't want to be there. With supertrend I would have had one losing trade and one break even trade, assuming just one trade per pair at a time.

That's all. Probably both right, but both with different trading styles.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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John
  • #1,065
  • Jul 4, 2013 10:40am Jul 4, 2013 10:40am
Quoting s3 signals
{quote} MKFX I don't trade the UJ so wouldn't have looked at this. However, I have attached a chart. On the daily it looks like longs only, although I don't know why the MA ribbon on the hourly shows short positions only as I thought the MA ribbon was supposed to replicate the trend on the daily but on the hourly chart. Anyways.....so we are singing from the same hymn-sheet, if we assume longs only per your hypothesis, then I would have had 2 long trades (1 @ 97.75 on 24 June and 1 @ 97.58 on 26 June). My first trade would have been a loss of 80...


Ho S3,

In my opinion you would not have had the 2 trades , you mention in your post :

quote
if we assume longs only per your hypothesis, then I would have had 2 long trades (1 @ 97.75 on 24 June and 1 @ 97.58 on 26 June
end quote


For both trades, price is under or in the macribbon. I thought you would only take trades, when price is above the ribbon (for longs) ?

The first trade you would have is July 3./10:00 at 100.32 Long.

What is wrong with my reasoning ?
  • #1,066
  • Jul 4, 2013 10:50am Jul 4, 2013 10:50am
If only people start testing different settings with the existing indicators - instead of adding different indicators with the same settings that would be just great
  • #1,067
  • Jul 4, 2013 10:56am Jul 4, 2013 10:56am
Quoting Mones
If only people start testing different settings with the existing indicators - instead of adding different indicators with the same settings that would be just great

I don't stop you. Go ahead. Show your settings etcetera !

What about your H4 settings with EMA+MACD . Long heard nor seen anything.
  • #1,068
  • Jul 4, 2013 11:36am Jul 4, 2013 11:36am
Quote
Rexio
For both trades, price is under or in the macribbon. I thought you would only take trades, when price is above the ribbon (for longs) ?

The first trade you would have is July 3./10:00 at 100.32 Long.

What is wrong with my reasoning ?

Hi Rexio

Nothing wrong with your reasoning at all. I was just trying to keep the debate relevant to the trades MKFXTrader took. I trade the 20/50 EMA trend method and so I don't think MKFXTrader would have taken those longs using that method either, so his whole hypothesis for his trades would have been in question. If you drill out to the daily and look at the 20/50 EMA's then the price was ranging from UNDER the 20 ema to between the 20 and 50 ema from 6 June. The price only closed above the 50 EMA on the 27 June. So, in theory, he shouldn't have taken long trades during that period. However, he showed 4 trades he would have taken between the 21st June and 26th June so, I thought rather than just say 'you shouldn't have taken them' and 'I wouldn't have taken them' I assumed we both did so we could at least compare the outcomes. So I thought IF I just blindly assumed for the sake of this exercise that the trend was up, then I would be looking for longs at the supertrend line below the price action. Then I compared the outcomes.

Perhaps MKFXTrader was using another trend method, but that would make the whole argument irrelevant. We can all find examples of where one trend method says long and one says short. It would have made our trade comparison a COMPLETE waste of time if that were the case.

Incidentally, after a long trend like the one in the chart when the supertrend line isn't touched for a while it can tend to get too close to the price action resulting in a loss from a decent pullback. Indeed, my first trade (3 July) would have been a loser, whereas MKFXTrader's long trade soon after mine would still be running. MKFXTrader would also have had no long trades from 27 June to 3 July during the big run up. C'est la vie....
John
  • #1,069
  • Jul 4, 2013 11:47am Jul 4, 2013 11:47am
Quoting rexio
{quote} I don't stop you. Go ahead. Show your settings etcetera ! What about your H4 settings with EMA+MACD . Long heard nor seen anything.
That's 2 days ago sherlock, i don't have the powers to speed up a forward test. Plus i have something running on my profile shown public.

Go ahead, ruin the thread with random nonsense indicators to filter out some bad trades. In a few weeks, this system doesn't have anything to do with the third screen strategy anymore, as everything gets destroyed on this forum.. Though i keep hearing K.I.S.S alot here
  • #1,070
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:27pm Jul 4, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting Mones
{quote} That's 2 days ago sherlock, i don't have the powers to speed up a forward test. Plus i have something running on my profile shown public. Go ahead, ruin the thread with random nonsense indicators to filter out some bad trades. In a few weeks, this system doesn't have anything to do with the third screen strategy anymore, as everything gets destroyed on this forum.. Though i keep hearing K.I.S.S alot here
That's 2 days ago sherlock


Thanks Watson,

Let me know when you have the investigation finished.
  • #1,071
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:36pm Jul 4, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting discomania
Hi TCO, thanks you very much for your big works, I have sett your ea on more demo. I have noticed I got much time alert with invalid stop and so on, window, is possible to turn off the alert? Thanks you. Best Regards, Antonio

Hi TCO


Please keep the alert function that we can monitor which trades should be taken and if they are placed correctly and have also SL and TP set. I will not turn the function off but if you think about this please give only the ability to turn it off and don`t take this function away.


erin1

Enter Signature
  • #1,072
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:37pm Jul 4, 2013 12:37pm
Quoting s3 signals
{quote} MKFX I don't trade the UJ so wouldn't have looked at this. However, I have attached a chart. On the daily it looks like longs only, although I don't know why the MA ribbon on the hourly shows short positions only as I thought the MA ribbon was supposed to replicate the trend on the daily but on the hourly chart. Anyways.....so we are singing from the same hymn-sheet, if we assume longs only per your hypothesis, then I would have had 2 long trades (1 @ 97.75 on 24 June and 1 @ 97.58 on 26 June). My first trade would have been a loss of 80...
I wouldn't classify our trading style as being any different. I am pretty conservative myself in how many positions I open per pair, and delay time I use is either 8-12 hrs. My only point is with the use of stochastics one can trade just as effectively and efficiently without the need of introducing all kinds of different indicators. I like Dr. Elder's system because of it's simplicity and KISS approach. I understand though, that traders often have their favorite indies that provide comfort. Happy trading S3.
  • #1,073
  • Jul 4, 2013 1:01pm Jul 4, 2013 1:01pm
Quote
MKFXTrader
I wouldn't classify our trading style as being any different. I am pretty conservative myself in how many positions I open per pair, and delay time I use is either 8-12 hrs. My only point is with the use of stochastics one can trade just as effectively and efficiently without the need of introducing all kinds of different indicators. I like Dr. Elder's system because of it's simplicity and KISS approach. I understand though, that traders often have their favorite indies that provide comfort. Happy trading S3.

Happy trading to you too MKFX (or can I call you MK?)

I don't know if 'comfort' is the right word but I get your gist.

Seems like discussion like ours which may be 'outside the box' strikes the raw nerve of the guys who want to follow a system blind for their 'comfort.'

Good eve, MK.
John
  • #1,074
  • Jul 4, 2013 1:31pm Jul 4, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting s3 signals
{quote}discussion like ours which may be 'outside the box' strikes the raw nerve of the guys who want to follow a system blind for their 'comfort.'
Don't get me wrong, i don't have anything against new indicators which can lead to greater success. But i don't believe we are any close to that stage yet. As i for one, and i'm sure there are many others, are still testing basic settings. I think we should test what we have first, instead of throwing more stuff at TCO to code and bring out a new version every week.

Unfortunately i don't have the experience to do very thoroughly backtests as i'm not a programmer, but the least i can do is forward testing. And i'm more interested in different results from what we have right now, than results with new indicators, which we cannot even compare since we don't have alot statistics.

Edit:
And with that i mean different settings, i.e. jump stops, pipstep, trailing stops, ATR SL/TP's, Tick/Bar mode, different TF's, Stochastic, MACD etc... There's still alot to test before i would consider adding even more to what we already have
  • #1,075
  • Edited 2:47pm Jul 4, 2013 2:15pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting Mones
{quote} Don't get me wrong, i don't have anything against new indicators which can lead to greater success. But i don't believe we are any close to that stage yet. As i for one, and i'm sure there are many others, are still testing basic settings. I think we should test what we have first, instead of throwing more stuff at TCO to code and bring out a new version every week. Unfortunately i don't have the experience to do very thoroughly backtests as i'm not a programmer, but the least i can do is forward testing. And i'm more interested in different...
I agree with you, I come from ea school, I traded for years only with ea and I tried hundreds of ea, I also made myself ea cuz I know mql4 code, I spent many hours on backtests, you can add all parameters you want and keep adding and adding parameters and I can say to you it's all useless, there will be never no 100% fully automatic ea able to make profit in the long run, MONEY PRINT does not exists ... just stick with base 20&50 or D1 macd systems with manual interventions (what you see with your eyes EA can't see) ... the system you use can be very simple but what makes the difference is the phsicology, money managment of the trader, emotions .... the system is not the main part of the game and it can be simple ... thrust me maybe I can say that after 4 years of ea managing and use ....
I mean for entry/exit logic of the ea, then other things like automatic calculation of lot size, fast entries, automatic set of sl,tp base on atr or whatever you want yes it can help traders ...
I think the goal is a mixture of ea using with human interventions as 100pipsaday already do, obviously if you know what to do ....
with this I don't want to discredit tco trader ea it's a great work and it can help all of us... just use it with your brain ....
just my 2 cents...
  • #1,076
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:41pm Jul 4, 2013 6:41pm
Hello TCO. I have a doubt you might clarify. Why does the EA show Trend=Ranging when Tenkan > Kijun using Ichimoku method only? Shouldn't it show Uptrend instead?

Thanks for all your hard work and commitment to others. My thanks for your clarification in advance.

Regards,
D
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,077
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:07pm Jul 4, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting vox dei
Hello TCO. I have a doubt you might clarify. Why does the EA show Trend=Ranging when Tenkan > Kijun using Ichimoku method only? Shouldn't it show Uptrend instead? Thanks for all your hard work and commitment to others. My thanks for your clarification in advance. Regards, D

Hi Vox,

Could you show a chart ? Perhaps the reason is : When you have "CheckOncePerBAr = true", then the EA takes the values of the previous day. They may be different from today's values.
  • #1,078
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:15pm Jul 4, 2013 7:15pm
Quoting vox dei
Hello TCO. I have a doubt you might clarify. Why does the EA show Trend=Ranging when Tenkan > Kijun using Ichimoku method only? Shouldn't it show Uptrend instead? Thanks for all your hard work and commitment to others. My thanks for your clarification in advance. Regards, D
Perhaps if you at least mention what pair (or is it all pairs) or show a screen shot of chart, then those of us with time to problem solve have somewhere to start from

Thanks, E.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,079
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:05pm Jul 4, 2013 9:05pm
Ok, guys here's a chart.

As you can see

Ichimoku current trend says "Ranging" with Tenkan above Kijun
Williams is issuing a buy signal that should be valid assuming Tenkan>Kijun=Uptrend

How does Ichimoku determine the trend exactly?

Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-07-05_02-56_Global Prime MT.jpg Size: 133 KB
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,080
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:11pm Jul 4, 2013 9:11pm
Quoting rexio
{quote} Hi Vox, Could you show a chart ? Perhaps the reason is : When you have "CheckOncePerBAr = true", then the EA takes the values of the previous day. They may be different from today's values.
Hi rexio. This is Ichimoku in H1 TF.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
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