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TCO Trader EA

  • #1,041
  • Jul 3, 2013 2:48pm Jul 3, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting MeAgain
Hi TCO, Thanks for sharing your system and fully supported EA with the community. The results of the EA look excellent, but during the years I had some hard lessons with EA's. I am a programmer myself, but was never able to come up with a profitable strategy. I coded many EAs but most of them failed during back testing. I want to contribute to this thread as well, so I thought that I could do some back testing for you on my tick data (its 99% modeling quality). In the attachment I have some back testing results on version 1.3. If you want me to...
Welcome, MeAgain. Good to have you on board. Thanks for sharing your backtests. Very interesting, indeed. I noticed the worst performing pair was EURCHF. That is not a pair that was in 100Pips' original list, and I'm not sure about others here, but I am not trading it with this system. Looks like there are a couple other extra pairs in there as well, but it is good to see the results of all of them nonetheless. Good work.

TurtleFan
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #1,042
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:20pm Jul 3, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting rexio
{quote} Hi MKF, That means, you will have the EA out of order for the whole day tomorrow ? USA will be closed because of 4. July. What do you do on Friday with the NFP report (USA) ?
I'm not sure yet, but I'm incline to just avoid tomorrow with those two rate decisions, and may trade as normal on Friday. I expect NFP to come in inline, or above expectations. I'll just evaluate tomorrow. Alot of people in U.S normally take off on Friday, when a holiday falls on a Thursday. 4 day weekend. Financial markets will probably be on light volume, which could mean exaggerated price swings on both days, so be careful.
  • #1,043
  • Jul 3, 2013 4:20pm Jul 3, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
{quote} I'm not sure yet, but I'm incline to just avoid tomorrow with those two rate decisions, and may trade as normal on Friday. I expect NFP to come in inline, or above expectations. I'll just evaluate tomorrow. A lot of people in U.S normally take off on Friday, when a holiday falls on a Thursday. 4 day weekend. Financial markets will probably be on light volume, which could mean exaggerated price swings on both days, so be careful.
exaggerated price swings ???

So yesterday was normal?

Just kidding, be careful is right!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0062.png Size: 87 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,044
  • Jul 3, 2013 4:26pm Jul 3, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} exaggerated price swings ??? So yesterday was normal? Just kidding, be careful is right! {image}

Man, that was some crazy PA. Look at that shooting star. Is that the XSupertrend indie you're using on that hourly chart?
  • #1,045
  • Jul 3, 2013 4:47pm Jul 3, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
{quote} Man, that was some crazy PA. Look at that shooting star. Is that the XSupertrend indie you're using on that hourly chart?
You know it is; and on the Daily also with 20/50/200 EMA + MACD, I figure out the trend is UP
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,046
  • Edited 5:48pm Jul 3, 2013 5:36pm | Edited 5:48pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} You know it is; and on the Daily also with 20/50/200 EMA + MACD, I figure out the trend is UP

As long as the MACD D1 is negative, I consider the trend DOWN. That relates to the macd strategy.

But I have to admit, that 420 pips upwards was a strong hit for me with GBPAUD.

Is the trend really UP now ? Even if that is true, how much more space does GBPAUD have to go up ? Not so much in my opinion.
It did already 2200 pips upwards and that is more than enough.
( but that's an opinion, you never know for sure).

As to xSupertrend, the indicator : It looks nice on the charts, but it is very lagging in nature.
  • #1,047
  • Jul 3, 2013 6:53pm Jul 3, 2013 6:53pm
In my testing normal MACD is better than MACD Adjustable!!!
Enter Signature
  • #1,048
  • Jul 3, 2013 7:19pm Jul 3, 2013 7:19pm
Quoting maudur
In my testing normal MACD is better than MACD Adjustable!!!
I've been wondering about that since the major confusion over in the Third Screen Strategy thread when we were told to place one indicator on the chart, but had to have another indicator in MT4 because the EA was taking readings from that one.

Can you tell us what difference you can find between what you call normal MACD and the adjustable MACD used by khaled's EA?

And I wonder why they even went down that road? Surely they would have looked at the standard MACD at some point.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,049
  • Jul 3, 2013 9:37pm Jul 3, 2013 9:37pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote}... Can you tell us what difference you can find between what you call normal MACD and the adjustable MACD used by khaled's EA? ...
Sure. I will try with my little English.

Please look at the attached image.

This chart show 2 EMAs, 12 and 24 and two indicators, Above MACD Adjustable and below Standard MACD (Normal).

In Stardard MACD there are 2 lines. One is the MAIN LINE or histogram and it's a difference between EMA 12 minus EMA 24. When two EMAs are equal, then histogram or MAIN LINE is equal to 0. When EMA 12 is above EMA 24, MAIN LINE or histogram is greater than 0.

The another line in Standard MACD is the Signal line, it's equal to average the MAIN LINE by number of Signal Periods (9 periods in MACD(12,24,9)).

In MACD Adjustable there are two histogram, blue and red (In this case). These histogram are calculate equal to difference between MAIN LINE (In Standard MACD) and Signal Line (In Standard MACD), so when histogram is blue, MAIN LINE is greater than Signal Line (In Standard MACD) and when histogram is red, MAIN LINE is lower than Signal Line (In Standard MACD).

Please note, MACD Adjustable don't show any about EMAs Cross.

I'm waiting all you understand my English.

With regards,

Maudur.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macd.JPG Size: 78 KB
Enter Signature
  • #1,050
  • Jul 3, 2013 10:14pm Jul 3, 2013 10:14pm
Quoting maudur
{quote} Sure. I will try with my little English. Please look at the attached image. This chart show 2 EMAs, 12 and 24 and two indicators, Above MACD Adjustable and below Standard MACD (Normal). In Stardard MACD there are 2 lines. One is the MAIN LINE or histogram and it's a difference between EMA 12 minus EMA 24. When two EMAs are equal, then histogram or MAIN LINE is equal to 0. When EMA 12 is above EMA 24, MAIN LINE or histogram is greater than 0. The another line in Standard MACD is the Signal line, it's equal to average the MAIN LINE by number...
Very good explanation, thanks.

Now I forgot to mention that part of the confusion I referred to was caused by khaled saying to put the MACD3SSS in the indicators folder; I have looked at MACD3SSS and compared with standard MACD, they look the same to me.

I think part of 100_pips success is that he is looking at the MACD Adjustable, which changes color much quicker as shown on your chart, and making discretionary trading exit & entry using that, and once a trend is under way, taking signals / entries from the EA using the MACD3SSS

Which sort of confirm your analysis and testing results saying that the standard MACD is giving better outcome of system, so maybe I need 2 MACD on the chart

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,051
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:05am Jul 4, 2013 12:05am
Quoting maudur
{quote} Sure. I will try with my little English. Please look at the attached image. This chart show 2 EMAs, 12 and 24 and two indicators, Above MACD Adjustable and below Standard MACD (Normal). In Stardard MACD there are 2 lines. One is the MAIN LINE or histogram and it's a difference between EMA 12 minus EMA 24. When two EMAs are equal, then histogram or MAIN LINE is equal to 0. When EMA 12 is above EMA 24, MAIN LINE or histogram is greater than 0. The another line in Standard MACD is the Signal line, it's equal to average the MAIN LINE by number...

The indicator macd_adjustable has errors in it. I call it a 'glitch'. It seems that the source code is a mess.
The glitch appears especially then when the numbers of the main line and the signal line are approaching zero. (When the macd is in transition) .

I want to refer to my post #1035 over here : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...382032&page=52
  • #1,052
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:13am Jul 4, 2013 12:13am
Quoting maudur
{quote} Sure. I will try with my little English. Please look at the attached image. This chart show 2 EMAs, 12 and 24 and two indicators, Above MACD Adjustable and below Standard MACD (Normal). In Stardard MACD there are 2 lines. One is the MAIN LINE or histogram and it's a difference between EMA 12 minus EMA 24. When two EMAs are equal, then histogram or MAIN LINE is equal to 0. When EMA 12 is above EMA 24, MAIN LINE or histogram is greater than 0. The another line in Standard MACD is the Signal line, it's equal to average the MAIN LINE by number...

In the attached image I created the same 2 charts, but now both represented in the same way: mian versus signal line

a) Thirdscreen way = macd_adjustable
b) Official macd way of calculation

Now you can see at once where the minor differences are.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcadh1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #1,053
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:17am Jul 4, 2013 12:17am
Quoting rexio
{quote} In the attached image I created the same 2 charts, but now both represented in the same way: mian versus signal line a) Thirdscreen way = macd_adjustable b) Official macd way of calculation Now you can see at once where the minor differences are. {image}
For the use of the macd strategy in the long run this does not have major implications. It is only annoying to have a glitchy indicator.
In this way it is not possible to get consistency with other programs like for example the dashboard program.
  • #1,054
  • Edited 5:46am Jul 4, 2013 5:33am | Edited 5:46am
I am still plugging away at experimenting with taking trades at the xsupertrend line, the lower line in an uptrend and the upper line in a downtrend (probably discussed about 10 pages back?).

I am not a programmer and I wonder if anyone can help me with relevant code required for this or point me in the direction of someone who can? I am thinking of writing it into the TCO EA as another confirmation stage (as Williams % is) and then I will merrily forward test it and report back here with my findings to everyone. It may be a wild goose chase or just re-inventing the wheel, but I prefer fewer trades with better entries which I think this will give me.

Would I be right in thinking if I checked the 'check once per bar' as false the EA will check the price based on tick data? If yes, then I could merely ask, for example, in an uptrend (defined by 20/50 ema or MACD), to check if xsupertrend line was below closing price in the previous two bars, and current price is at or below the xsupertrend value of the previous bar close, and if so, send buy order. Obviously in a downtrend I would ask it to check if xsupertrend line was above closing price of previous two bars and then check fs current bar price was at, or above, the value of the xsupertrend value of the previous bar close. As the EA currently covers maximum number of trades per pair and time delay between trades, I think I could control the possibility of taking more than one trade at the same line level.

Many thanks for anyone who can help. I have attached the relevant indicator (I use MA 10, and multiplier of 3).
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 xSuperTrend.mq4   4 KB | 330 downloads
John
  • #1,055
  • Edited 8:21am Jul 4, 2013 6:49am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting s3 signals
I am still plugging away at experimenting with taking trades at the xsupertrend line, the lower line in an uptrend and the upper line in a downtrend (probably discussed about 10 pages back?). I am not a programmer and I wonder if anyone can help me with relevant code required for this or point me in the direction of someone who can? I am thinking of writing it into the TCO EA as another confirmation stage (as Williams % is) and then I will merrily forward test it and report back here with my findings to everyone. It may be a wild goose chase or...

Hi S3,

Could you surprise us with a chart with one or two examples on it.
I suppose the timeframe would be 1 hour ?
Thanks.

I give it a try here myself. Here is an attached example of the H1 chart of currently GBPAUD. It is the template of TCO. This means the MACD and 20/50 on it, but translated into a daily interpretation. Williams is the hourly W%R as usual.

I see 2 sells around 24 june, but they are negated because of the positive MACD.

Then I see a buy at July 1./1600 which runs into a reversal.
What do you do with a reversal ? Do you reverse or trade through it ? If you hold the trade, you have a maximim DD of around 100 pips and finally you go to TP = 320 pips.
There would be another buy at July 3./0400 .

Summarized : 1 or 2 buys in the period of June21 till now. BUT : I see afterwards, that these buys occur in a time period where the MACD D1 is negative. So they should be negated. So there would be nothing all that time period from June 21 till now.
Do you agree roughly with this analysis ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaudh1.png Size: 44 KB
  • #1,056
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:48am Jul 4, 2013 7:48am
Quote
Rexio
Summarized : 1 or 2 buys in the period of June21 till now. BUT : I see afterwards, that these buys occur in a time period where the MACD D1 is negative. So they should be negated. So there would be nothing all that time period from June 21 till now.
Do you agree roughly with this analysis ?

Thanks for your reply.

I have attached my chart of GBPAUD. Using 20/50 EMA to determine trend, I have been only taking long trades for a while. Two trade opportunities in the chart, both made 2.5 times risk, in this case 275 pips each risking 110 pips per trade.

I have also attached my chart of EURUSD. I use the 20/50 EMA for trend so I have only been looking for long trades for some time (the MA ribbon is below the price action). Since 21 June (the start of your chart) I have had only 2 trades which were two long trades, both potential good winners. A potential third trade, a buy at 1.4255 would be currently underwater, but applying a 12 hour delay after the last closing trade (my take profit is 2.5 times risk, or 200 pips in this case; you could have made more) it would not have been taken. Currently I would be waiting for price to rise to take out the higher xsupertrend line again before looking for a new buy at the resulting lower xsupertrend line thereafter. So I would want the EA (in this upward trend) to determine whether the xsupertrend level closed below the actual close for the previous two bars (which they don't in the current example) before buying during the current candle when the price touches the xsupertrend close of the previous candle. So no potential new long trade yet.

I hope that makes sense. I would want the EA to look at the previous 2 candles and determine whether, per xsupertrend, we are in an uptrend, ie above the xsupertrend line. If we are, then place buy order when the price hits the xsupertrend value of last close, in the current candle.

So, potentially, four trades here which are 'cherry picking at it's best' but you couldn't fail to make money from them. In the first chart you might have got stopped out on the first as the price moved more than 110 in your favour and retraced to break even before taking off. But the second one was clean.

That's potentially 7.5% from these two this week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudh1.png Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaudh1.png Size: 43 KB
John
  • #1,057
  • Edited 8:39am Jul 4, 2013 8:12am | Edited 8:39am
Quoting s3 signals
{quote} Thanks for your reply. I have attached my chart of GBPAUD. Using 20/50 EMA to determine trend, I have been only taking long trades for a while. Two trade opportunities in the chart, both made 2.5 times risk, in this case 275 pips each risking 110 pips per trade. I have also attached my chart of EURUSD. I use the 20/50 EMA for trend so I have only been looking for long trades for some time (the MA ribbon is below the price action). Since 21 June (the start of your chart) I have had only 2 trades which were two long trades, both potential...

Hi S3,

Thank you for your clear explanation.

It is interesting to see for EURAUD that the 20/50 strategy would give 2 winning trades whereas the MACD strategy would have 1 losing
trade in the same time period.
I suppose hereby that once the trade is entered, only SL or TP decide about the end of that trade. In other words : you trade through a reversal of the indicators.

Now about who is going to program this ?
For the time being, in my opinion, we should wait for TCO's newest version, yet to be released. Then this version needs time to stabilize, i.e. the debugging phase. All this takes at least 2 weeks after release.

After that , there would be time to look into new adventures, including yours with the supertrend.

I hope that TCO would be willing to program it , because he knows his program best.
In essence the case looks like this :

The EA knows 4 main strategies to determine the trend.( 1. Ichimoku, 2. 20/50, 3. MACD, 4. Turtle channel).
These strategies may be added if you wish.

Once the trendstrategies have been choosen, we rely on EXCLUSIVELY (one excludes the other) one of 2 hourly mechanisms for orderentry :

1) W%R
2) Stochastic

Yours with the supertrend would be number 3.
  • #1,058
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:31am Jul 4, 2013 8:31am
Quote
Rexio
Summarized : 1 or 2 buys in the period of June21 till now. BUT : I see afterwards, that these buys occur in a time period where the MACD D1 is negative. So they should be negated. So there would be nothing all that time period from June 21 till now. Do you agree roughly with this analysis ?

Rexio

Looking at EURUSD I had a sell on 27 June @ 1.3053 and another on 1 July @ 1.3051 (assuming 2 sells max per pair which I might yet change). I have closed one trade and moved stop down on the other. Individual targets were 1.2853 and 1.2851 respectively. I closed one before ECB announcements (sod's law!). The point is if I had left both trades to run, between them they would be up nearly 4% now.

Different ramble: I sometimes wonder if it might be a good idea to have a monthly target of, say, 2% profit per currency pair, and when they hit it individually, you halt the EA on the respective chart until next month. I think 2% is reasonable because that is what the EA is kind of programmed for, so we must assume we are hopeful of attaining that target, ie 1 winning trade. A bit like the old rhyme, 10 (or in my case 12) green bottles hanging on a wall. As each one hits their 2% for the month they are removed, gradually reducing risk, and trading, for the month. I am, of course, assuming that individually each pair will get to it's 2% (which is probably a reasonable assumption with this system otherwise we might be all wasting out time) although some will go underwater before doing so. In other words trade every pair until they individually reach 2% and then delete them until next month. It might mean some months we get to 24% (in my case with 12 pairs) with two weeks to go and switch off the PC!!! Another way of doing this might be to have a total trade closure when a combined profit of 6% is hit and cease trading for the month when 2 of these total closures have happened. I recall from TCO's original analysis he had about 96,000 pips profit in 18 months? That's 5,300 pips a month and he was risking about 200 pips a trade (from memory)? At 1% a trade, that's 26% a month, so closing at 24% or even 12% is fairly prudent. We all know that there are good periods and bad periods of trading. However, if I was closing at 2% per pair, and ended the month with 8 pairs closed at 2% and the other 4 down 1% each, I'd still be happy with my 12% overall and possibly my stress would be less. Because I would know that after buttoning down say 6 pairs, leaving 6 to trade, my maximum risk from new trade baskets would be diminishing as the month progressed, ie half. Imagine if you were up 15% for the month, still traded all the pairs, and then had 10 trade pairs go the wrong way on you and you lost it all. By taking 'pairs off the table' as they hit target I believe we are less likely to be 'giving it all back' which tends to be the common cycle in forex.

However.............I expect a mathematical genius might prove to me that numerically I might be talking nonsense. Just some thoughts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 52 KB
John
  • #1,059
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:48am Jul 4, 2013 8:48am
Quoting s3 signals
{quote} Rexio Looking at EURUSD I had a sell on 27 June @ 1.3053 and another on 1 July @ 1.3051 (assuming 2 sells max per pair which I might yet change). I have closed one trade and moved stop down on the other. Individual targets were 1.2853 and 1.2851 respectively. I closed one before ECB announcements (sod's law!). The point is if I had left both trades to run, between them they would be up nearly 4% now.
How about if you took the break of the line starting about June 25 ?

I think this gives you 4 entries and probably more pips

As I mention before, I think this is more in line with how SuperTrend is meant to be used

And it would be easier to program in my opinion, not that I know anything about that; not sure about multiple entries

Anyway, has given me some new ideas to work on, thanks for posting
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,060
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:58am Jul 4, 2013 8:58am
Quoting s3 signals
{quote} Rexio Looking at EURUSD I had a sell on 27 June @ 1.3053 and another on 1 July @ 1.3051 (assuming 2 sells max per pair which I might yet change). I have closed one trade and moved stop down on the other. Individual targets were 1.2853 and 1.2851 respectively. I closed one before ECB announcements (sod's law!). The point is if I had left both trades to run, between them they would be up nearly 4% now. Different ramble: I sometimes wonder if it might be a good idea to have a monthly target of, say, 2% profit per currency pair, and when they...
Just using stochastics, I had one E/U short opened @ 1.30583 on July 1st. Almost similar to your July 1st short using XSupertrend. I haven't checked last month since my terminal is cleared beginning of the month.
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