Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2076 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,501
  • Jul 2, 2013 11:53pm Jul 2, 2013 11:53pm
wow, not even a pen knife.
i traded till i dozed.

see, no need change, just be self.
there still humans on earth.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v...type=2&theater
  • #41,502
  • Jul 3, 2013 12:08am Jul 3, 2013 12:08am
Commerzbank On Goldman's Long EUR/USD Call: Naive & Absurd
02 Jul 2013 09:58 EDT http://www.efxnews.com/sites/all/the.../rss_small.png
By eFXnews.com
http://www.efxnews.com/sites/all/the...-prov-gray.jpg

http://www.efxnews.com/sites/all/the...ree-button.png http://www.efxnews.com/sites/all/the...ree-button.png
Share on print Print Share on email Email


This is probably one of the most interesting notes we have seen so far this year. In a lengthy note today, Commerzbank's FX strategist, Ulrich Leuchtmann argued that the rationale behind Goldman Sachs' long EUR/USD recommendation which moved the market yesterday is simply based on naive and absurd perspectives. Here is the note by CB (Goldman is referred as a large US investment bank):
I have been observing the FX market for 15 years now. Often I tend to believe that over this period I might have seen everything there is to see and that nothing would surprise me any longer. But every so often I do get a surprise. As was the case yesterday when EUR-USD received support as the result of a short note from a large US investment bank (from levels around 1.3020 to the area of 1.3060/70) in which it recommended to buy EUR-USD. Did nobody read the text with it? The recommendation was based on the observation that the euro zone’s current account and “broad basic balance” (defined as current account + direct investments + net flow of portfolio capital) was positive. That simply takes my breath away. So let’s look at it one by one:
(1) Large parts of the periphery have just avoided a current account crisis (covered by the ECB). Of course they had to reduce or reverse their current account deficits as part of this process – due to a lack of sustainable means of financing these deficits. That is exactly what these countries are finding so painful right now. It all depends on whether in future these countries will be able to achieve sustainable and sufficient growth even with more or less balanced current accounts or whether they will be able to attract capital and can remunerate this capital with a growth in productivity.
(2) The balance of payment is always balanced – with the exception of statistical errors (“discrepancies”). A national economy can only create receivables against the rest of the world by exporting goods or services or with the help of income abroad (apart from small amounts of transfers). In other words: the current account is always exactly the same as the capital account but with a reversed sign. The “broad basic balance” picks out those aspects of the balance of payments that one might naively term “positive”. This leaves a rest that is difficult to interpret: the “broad basic balance” has the same amount as the sum of net transfers, “other capital account transactions” (mainly bank loans), changes to the FX reserves of the central bank system and statistical discrepancies. If one says that a surplus in the “broad basic balance” was positive one will have to justify why a deficit in this mix of residual BoP positions is positive. One statement is equivalent to the other. The one makes sense only if the other makes sense, too.
The problem is based on a naïve perspective on the balance of payments. Of course it is positive to acquire receivables against foreign countries. However it is not per se positive to export as many goods and services as possible. An economy benefits more if it uses these goods and services itself. The trade-off between both sides is variable. The residual items are not suited to value the trade-off.
(3) The trade recommendation becomes completely absurd in view of the target level: 1.3500 in EUR-USD. The reasons stated are of such a long term and fundamental nature that they should cause more than a 5-cent move in the EUR-USD exchange rate. However, what use is the best sermon?
If the trade recommendation bears the name of a large US investment bank no amount of good reasons will have an effect. Market participants follow the recommendation like lemmings. I can only warn readers of such “recommendations”.
Copyright 2013 eFXnews
Fti, what do you think about these guys?
  • #41,503
  • Jul 3, 2013 1:59am Jul 3, 2013 1:59am
Quoting Jaro
Commerzbank On Goldman's Long EUR/USD Call: Naive & Absurd 02 Jul 2013 09:58 EDT {image} By eFXnews.com {image} {image} {image} Share on print Print Share on email Email This is probably one of the most interesting notes we have seen so far this year. In a lengthy note today, Commerzbank's FX strategist, Ulrich Leuchtmann argued that the rationale behind...

opinions every body has one, and it stinks.

i only read news, opinions i have my own, and it shits.
everyone's should follow their own abilities and opinions. BIG does nothing.
How many BIGs still surviving today?
they change teams and use same name , so it seems they around when infact they dead.
To survive one need be able distinguish news from opinions.

regards

markets cracks at last, i have BIG load, thanks for the time slowly build up the SIZE.
looks like duku langsat again
Attached Image
  • #41,504
  • Edited 2:39am Jul 3, 2013 2:23am | Edited 2:39am
i like see if 1.5050 can hold this drop.
slippery floor.

this a rally?
my grandmother can do better.
  • #41,505
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:03am Jul 3, 2013 3:03am
soon
soon when euro finds the bottom.
i show you what trading supposed be like.

and how crosses dies computer algos? you not seen what skills like.
read retail thread?
  • #41,506
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:10am Jul 3, 2013 3:10am
Quoting fti
i like see if 1.5050 can hold this drop. slippery floor. this a rally? my grandmother can do better.
Dear FTI,
I do not quite understand your above statement.
you mentioned that price is dropping ie. "this drop"
but then you ask if this is a "rally"
my understanding is that a rally is an up move.
am i mistaken ?
Thank you.
  • #41,507
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:14am Jul 3, 2013 3:14am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Dear FTI, I do not quite understand your above statement. you mentioned that price is dropping ie. "this drop" but then you ask if this is a "rally" my understanding is that a rally is an up move. am i mistaken ? Thank you.
you npt in syncwith charts la
they selling ec.
so euro drop but cablr rallys
this very clear manipulation.
bastards work.
brainless peeps or robot.
only stupid markets when manipulated behaves like this.

nonetheless, i manaaged give good size.
now he dies.

regards

to hold drop they rallying cable.
next cable drop they no going see daylight.
watch.
manipulators always dies.
  • #41,508
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:18am Jul 3, 2013 3:18am
Quoting fti
{quote} you npt in syncwith charts la they selling ec. so euro drop but cablr rallys this very clear manipulation. bastards work. brainless peeps or robot. only stupid markets when manipulated behaves like this. nonetheless, i manaaged give good size. now he dies. regards to hold drop they rallying cable.
Oic, i got you now chief.
thanks !
  • #41,509
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:36am Jul 3, 2013 3:36am
Looks like there is active manipulation going on now?

Spread on the GBP/USD widened monentarily before price shot up.

Please correct me i am mistakened
Attached Image
  • #41,510
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:37am Jul 3, 2013 3:37am
so someone was fore running soft data.
now lets get the authorities plug this leak.
someone's going to jail.

hope they get the whole syndicate.
  • #41,511
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:49am Jul 3, 2013 3:49am
Gaaahhh. I'm deep in rescue mode now. This is hurting..............
  • #41,512
  • Jul 3, 2013 3:53am Jul 3, 2013 3:53am
Quoting fti
so someone was fore running soft data. now lets get the authorities plug this leak. someone's going to jail. hope they get the whole syndicate.
Dear FTI,

If i may give my humble thoughts now on why GBP/USD is heading north
1) May be due to manipulation, in which case, it is likely that price might come down.
2) May be due to fore-running of data, as noted by your good self above, in which case markets may move up from this point on.

We have no way of knowing the real situation, so in such a circumstance,
if we are already in a trade, we will have to be nimble and find a way out.
if we are not in a trade, it might be prudent to stay out ?

A penny for your thoughts ?
  • #41,513
  • Edited 6:19am Jul 3, 2013 4:32am | Edited 6:19am
Hi Guys,
I'm still newbie in forex market , I a bit confuse about which currency are they really manipulate and hold for the drop now. I compare 3 kingdoms EUR/USD is hold for not dropping but GBP/USD is rallying like crazy and USD/JPY is dropping too . Mean EUR/USD is ABNORMAL Compare to the other 2 kingdoms, mean they are manipulate for EUR/USD not Dropping by selling EUR/GBP? Can anyone explain to me?
What I understand about the relationships about the 3 kingdoms are EUR/USD will will act proportionally with GBPUSD and USDJPY will act inversely with others.
But now GBP/USD is rising and USDJPY is droping but EURUSD just rally slowly ( Its is not in-line with GBPUSD). My understanding is EURUSD suppose to fall lower but because of Manipulation it is force to rally but in slow motion, once the peak is reach it will fall with GBPUSD with great decline. Please correct me I am mistakened. Sorry for my poor English
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR USD.JPG Size: 248 KB
  • #41,514
  • Jul 3, 2013 5:01am Jul 3, 2013 5:01am
muscle against muscle.
no choice.
i need wait this manipulator die.
need more bullets.

I just hold and rest, while they audit and put them in jail
resting in cave wait is better.



regards
  • #41,515
  • Jul 3, 2013 8:11am Jul 3, 2013 8:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} opinions every body has one, and it stinks. i only read news, opinions i have my own, and it shits. everyone's should follow their own abilities and opinions. BIG does nothing. How many BIGs still surviving today? they change teams and use same name , so it seems they around when infact they dead. To survive one need be able distinguish news from opinions. regards markets cracks at last, i have BIG load, thanks for the time slowly build up the SIZE. looks like duku langsat again {image}

Chief,

work of art...beautiful....
  • #41,516
  • Jul 3, 2013 10:11am Jul 3, 2013 10:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} opinions every body has one, and it stinks. i only read news, opinions i have my own, and it shits. everyone's should follow their own abilities and opinions. BIG does nothing. How many BIGs still surviving today? they change teams and use same name , so it seems they around when infact they dead. To survive one need be able distinguish news from opinions. regards markets cracks at last, i have BIG load, thanks for the time slowly build up the SIZE. looks like duku langsat again {image}
How cool is this! Would love to see more like it. I agree with V, a thing of beauty!
  • #41,517
  • Jul 3, 2013 12:48pm Jul 3, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting fti
{quote} opinions every body has one, and it stinks. i only read news, opinions i have my own, and it shits. everyone's should follow their own abilities and opinions. BIG does nothing. How many BIGs still surviving today? they change teams and use same name , so it seems they around when infact they dead. To survive one need be able distinguish news from opinions. regards markets cracks at last, i have BIG load, thanks for the time slowly build up the SIZE. looks like duku langsat again {image}

Thanks Fti! Great point!
  • #41,518
  • Jul 3, 2013 1:05pm Jul 3, 2013 1:05pm
We love your presence in the thread, Dear FTI! The more you say something, the more market wisdom we get. As of late, my account has been improving. Feb to April, I lost 30% of my capital...almost gave up in trading...took a 3 week hiatus. Thought hard about what Sir FTI has been saying and what has been discussed by others members. I just kept on reading this thread. In May, a spark came to me and came back to trading with a fresh mindset. This time being conscious of the power of 1 pip. Before, I only count the $ that comes, never minding the hundred of pips am losing just to get a cent. Since I started to value the pip count, seems like I got into the right rhythm, now knowing when am with the trend or not. Yes, the last 2 months has been a consistent winner and my losses is now reduced to within 5 %. Soon, I am counting to be in the winner side. Hopefully, the old scorpion won't come back and be able to stick to FTI MO.

A great thanks to you, Chief and to all contributors.

Happy trading, everyone.
  • #41,519
  • Jul 3, 2013 1:12pm Jul 3, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting jonyl_pips
We love your presence in the thread, Dear FTI! The more you say something, the more market wisdom we get. As of late, my account has been improving. Feb to April, I lost 30% of my capital...almost gave up in trading...took a 3 week hiatus. Thought hard about what Sir FTI has been saying and what has been discussed by others members. I just kept on reading this thread. In May, a spark came to me and came back to trading with a fresh mindset. This time being conscious of the power of 1 pip. Before, I only count the $ that comes, never minding the...



keep slow climb on curve.

regards

now we know who the manipulator.
he selling aud to prop up euros & cable.
thinks is smart move because some idiots gave good figs reads to cable.
now just need wait markets and cbs responds to it.
lets see how e feels when cbs does concerted rate drops on him. maybe maybe not.
will be interesting.
he trapped my 1 foot in markets, so i gonna make him bleed. big time.

regards
  • #41,520
  • Jul 3, 2013 1:12pm Jul 3, 2013 1:12pm
Jaro,

Good to see you back in the thread...Hope your trading is doing well. Good luck and more blessing...

Good fortune to you!

jonyl
21 traders viewing now