Daily EUR/JPY analysis | Forex Factory

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Daily EUR/JPY analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 8, 2006 3:08pm Jun 8, 2006 3:08pm
i passed on this pair today, just as well really!

wait for the second touch before going short...or be vigilant for fakeouts if you want to jump in.
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  • #2
  • Jun 9, 2006 1:47am Jun 9, 2006 1:47am
I jumped right in. After such a strong trendline I wanted to risk a fake breakout. Glad I did. Asia followed suit as expected and has traded eur/jpy to below 144.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #3
  • Jun 9, 2006 2:33pm Jun 9, 2006 2:33pm
I'm still watching this one, but no prizes for guessing where it found support...
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  • #4
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:15pm Jun 13, 2006 6:15pm
Yep, nice trade, I'm in too .
-soso
  • #5
  • Edited 8:27am Jun 17, 2006 8:25am | Edited 8:27am
I thought I'd offer this to the experts.
I quite like this pair as at first glance it looks to follow steady patterns, but, I couldn't make up my mind on where to plan my trades.
I decided to look at the long term and I think the pattern is interesting.
The trendline (monthly) is, and has been, symettrically down since the beginning of 1983. There also looks to be solid S/R at the current price going back someway.
Now I know past performance is no help for future predictions, but having struck the fib from 1983 to the latest low, it's amazing how each turndown has happened at a major fib number.
At the moment the price has only just cleared the 25 fib, and, as pointed out earlier, there is a double top. In fact if you go back to April 18th the current price is only a few pips higher than then. Correct me (being new to this) but I'm thinking treble top.
I'm going to wait for the price to head south and then follow it.
Any thoughts would be appreciated
Peter
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  • #6
  • Jun 19, 2006 11:18am Jun 19, 2006 11:18am
Strong bounce of upper trendline. Waiting for now, one of the trendlines will break.
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-soso
  • #7
  • Jun 19, 2006 3:11pm Jun 19, 2006 3:11pm
i agree wait for the break. i think it might break down.
  • #8
  • Jun 20, 2006 5:05am Jun 20, 2006 5:05am
Quoting soso_beton
Strong bounce of upper trendline. Waiting for now, one of the trendlines will break.
Hi soso

Do you wait for break of the lines, or a close above/below the t/l ? if a close - is it a daily close ? if a break, do you set a limit order above/below the t/l - if so, how much above/below ?

cheers
John
  • #9
  • Jun 20, 2006 6:18am Jun 20, 2006 6:18am
Hi John,

It depends, gut feeling has a large role for me. In current EURJPY case I would wait for current bar (daily) to finish because as you can see it is not a clear break, it could still bounce back. But, I will stand aside on this pair for now using the daily system, as I am short since yesterday following the rules of my second system.

I don't use limit orders though it would be a good idea if screen time is a problem.

The whole daily system is to follow the most current trend while keeping an eye on incoming trendlines (like current EURJPY) in which case it is better to stand aside. Entries are mostly on TL touch.

Hope it helpes

Cheers,

P.S. What happened to your journal? Not posting anymore? Your charts are great!

Quoting Mosaic
Hi soso

Do you wait for break of the lines, or a close above/below the t/l ? if a close - is it a daily close ? if a break, do you set a limit order above/below the t/l - if so, how much above/below ?

cheers
John
-soso
  • #10
  • Jun 20, 2006 5:58pm Jun 20, 2006 5:58pm
Wow your marriages are short lived LOL. You will be back to EURJPY when GBPJPY start to drive you nuts hehe.

Quoting Isotonic
This will be my last EURJPY chart for a while. I've jumped ship (again)!

GBPJPY is my new Yen darling...(time to woo a new mistress).

well, lookey here...
  • #11
  • Jun 21, 2006 12:25am Jun 21, 2006 12:25am
I'm still a newbie and hopefully I'm not making wrong moves but I'm going long on eurjpy at 145.00 because of fib line at 50.00. My take profit is 145.51. My stop loss is 144.83.
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  • #12
  • Jun 21, 2006 3:01am Jun 21, 2006 3:01am
Quoting soso_beton
Hi John,

It depends, gut feeling has a large role for me. In current EURJPY case I would wait for current bar (daily) to finish because as you can see it is not a clear break, it could still bounce back. But, I will stand aside on this pair for now using the daily system, as I am short since yesterday following the rules of my second system.

I don't use limit orders though it would be a good idea if screen time is a problem.

The whole daily system is to follow the most current trend while keeping an eye on incoming trendlines (like current EURJPY) in which case it is better to stand aside. Entries are mostly on TL touch.

Hope it helpes

Cheers,

P.S. What happened to your journal? Not posting anymore? Your charts are great!
2nd system....what you using for that ?

and the journal's going again...thanks

cheers
John
  • #13
  • Jun 21, 2006 3:27am Jun 21, 2006 3:27am
Nothing fancy, same trend following technique using trendline bounce only that the entry it is done on 1H charts and a couple more simple rules. Until now it is ok, if it'll make me money I'll post the details.


Quoting Mosaic
2nd system....what you using for that ?
-soso
  • #14
  • Jun 21, 2006 5:23am Jun 21, 2006 5:23am
Looks like your call was a good one imbiber .



Quoting imbiber
I'm still a newbie and hopefully I'm not making wrong moves but I'm going long on eurjpy at 145.00 because of fib line at 50.00. My take profit is 145.51. My stop loss is 144.83.
  • #15
  • Jun 21, 2006 5:56am Jun 21, 2006 5:56am
Funny, I am short from 145.15. Stop at 145.25. Daily pivot resistance. Gonna see if there comes a retrace from here...
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #16
  • Jun 21, 2006 5:59am Jun 21, 2006 5:59am
It looks like the the 130s level is a thing of the past for this pair. Its been ranging between 140.00 and 146.00 since April. What are your thoughts FXVision?



Quoting fxvision
Funny, I am short from 145.15. Stop at 145.25. Daily pivot resistance. Gonna see if there comes a retrace from here...
  • #17
  • Jun 21, 2006 7:25am Jun 21, 2006 7:25am
Well, I got reversed as the resistance got trashed and liquidity returned to the market. Next upside target could be 145.70. If that tripple top is shaped we could see a retrace. With Fukui underlining the need to maintain zirp we could very well see 146 soon.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #18
  • Jun 23, 2006 11:07am Jun 23, 2006 11:07am
Gone long at 145.57, target 146.34, SL 145.19.
  • #19
  • Jun 23, 2006 11:15am Jun 23, 2006 11:15am
Ouch, stopped out by 3 pips... sorry to hear that. And only 8 pips away from your target. Or did you close in profit before it turned down?
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #20
  • Jun 23, 2006 11:20am Jun 23, 2006 11:20am
I'm still in the trade. Not stopped out yet.

Edit - The image is poor but i went long at the 61.8 fib line.
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