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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #301
  • Jun 28, 2013 11:56pm Jun 28, 2013 11:56pm
thanks a lot for your explanation - i see, must read more carefuly the chart.

wish everybody a relaxing weekend. regards



Quoting panoramia
You sold too low in the curve, there was no level to lean on for short, price was bouncing of a D1 demand zone on the eurusd after a big drop. Selling is not an option where you are at a D1 demand or bouncing from it, it's lower odds. Look at the charts I attached. Look at my D1 zones... you wanted to buy right in the purple area, that's lower odds for a short, better to look for longs on brand new lower timeframe demand areas. {quote} {image} {image}
  • #302
  • Edited Jun 30, 2013 4:30am Jun 29, 2013 3:43pm | Edited Jun 30, 2013 4:30am
I was thinking of maybe organizing some webinars (free of course) for those interested in learning more about supply and demand and solving some of your doubts. We'll help each other by doing so.

It'll be about the way I trade supply and demand. There are several approaches to supply and demand trading, this is just my way, based mainly on OTA set & forget methodology. I try to stay away from complex definitions, multiple patterns or abbreviations, my goal is making is as simple as possible. There are other ways of doing it, you can look around, all of them are great, you just have to find your style and go for it.

I would like to organize the first one this week (Wednesday 3rd), possibly around 7-8 GMT. The webinar would be be organized via GoToMeeting I believe.

Doubts happen to be the same almost always:

- How to draw a level correctly
- How to score a level appropiately
- Cutting through candles (no, no, forbidden)
- How and where to define a trend
- When to trade with the trend and when to go counter trend
- When and how to set & forget your trades, and when to wait for a confirmation

So on and so forth... We'll analyze some pairs live and set some set & forget orders!

If you are interested, send me a personal message with your username, name and email. First, I need to know how many, if any, are interested.

I am not here to be good trader (even though that's why my ego wants), but to be profitable. I believe we're not here to be the best traders in the world, to be 85% accurate or more in our entries. Maybe you want, I don't want to. Our egos want that for sure, but if we succumb to our egos, we'll probably fail. We're here to earn money and reach our goals, not to be right most of the time. After all, trading is not about being right or wrong, it's about making money.

Looking forward to hearing from your personal messages to see if I can organize the webinar.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #303
  • Jun 29, 2013 4:29pm Jun 29, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting panoramia
I was thinking of maybe organizing some webinars (free of course) for those interested in learning more about supply and demand and solving some of your doubts. If you are interested, send me a personal message with your username, name and email.
Hi Alfonso, as you know i am a huge fan of your thread and am very excited at the chance to join your webinar. Cant PM you though as i am only a junior member here at forex factory and that feature is didabled for me. But im 100% up for the webinar. Even better if you can record it !

Thanks as always for the great thread
  • #304
  • Jun 30, 2013 12:49am Jun 30, 2013 12:49am
Hi Alfonso, I am very thankful to have found your thread because I believe I have learnt so much from your teachings. I would love to be part of the webinar but as a jounior member i am unable to send PM.

Is there another way for me to send you a private message.

Thanks Denny
  • #305
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:13am Jun 30, 2013 3:13am
Hi Panoramia

Sent you a PM regarding the webinars!

Regards

mickey
  • #306
  • Jun 30, 2013 11:06am Jun 30, 2013 11:06am
Alfonso

Thanks for your reply to my first post earlier. I'd love to take part in your webinar but unfortunately my in-laws are in town. Like Mis5ion, if you decide to record it, I'd definitely look forward to watching it when I have the chance.

Best regards

Huk
  • #307
  • Jun 30, 2013 12:10pm Jun 30, 2013 12:10pm
i really loved to watch your webinar.

i like your insight on zones where you say which are good which not now i know that is about the way of price departing from a level.

but i have a tought time in highier time frames zones monthly and wk
could you tell me is it vaild what i drew ?
http://charts.mql5.com/1/925/eurusd-...ari-uk-ltd.png
  • #308
  • Jun 30, 2013 12:36pm Jun 30, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting Hukkleberry
Alfonso Thanks for your reply to my first post earlier. I'd love to take part in your webinar but unfortunately my in-laws are in town. Like Mis5ion, if you decide to record it, I'd definitely look forward to watching it when I have the chance. Best regards Huk
Hi Hukkleberry,
What do you mean by:unfortunately my in-laws are in town
I don't understand
Regards
  • #309
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:19pm Jun 30, 2013 3:19pm
Hi Blitzkie!

If you are interested in the webminar, send me a personal message with your email please.

As far as the WK chart you attached, the zones are not well painted. The lower one is ok, but the upper one is not. You drew a zone which is a reaction to a previous one, AND even that upper zone u drew, you didn't cover the highs, for what reason? A peak (swing high) needs the highest high in the zone covered when the level is painted. See my attachment.

You say that u have a tough time drawing the zones on monthly and weekly. Let me tell you something, it's the same Price is fractal, the same rules apply to higher and lower timeframes. I can see by the chart u attached that you are not drawing the zones correctly, but that is not because it's a weekly chart, it's because of the intrinsic definition on how to draw a level. Go to my first post and and watch the video on "How to draw levels", you will see what I mean.

Hope that helps!
Alfonso


Quoting blitzkie
i really loved to watch your webinar. i like your insight on zones where you say which are good which not now i know that is about the way of price departing from a level. but i have a tought time in highier time frames zones monthly and wk could you tell me is it vaild what i drew ? {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 49 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #310
  • Jul 1, 2013 12:09am Jul 1, 2013 12:09am
Hi,

Great thread and following along. I have sent you pm and would very much like to attend webinar

Thx
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #311
  • Jul 1, 2013 6:22am Jul 1, 2013 6:22am
Hi Alfonso, actually I'm kinda confused about the way to draw zones too. In Blitzkie's chart, I would feel that he drew the upper zone correctly. I'm aware that including the swing high in the zone would be more conservative and safer, but I remember from Sam Seiden's webinars that he doesn't include the swing high when his zone is as such. Here are some relevant screenshots from his webinars:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stop position.png Size: 147 KB


The notes in the screenshots are paraphased from what Sam said, he mentioned that in such cases there is no need to include the swing high in the stop. As such I'm wondering whether this is just a matter of being more of less conservative, hope you can enlighten me
  • #312
  • Edited 6:49am Jul 1, 2013 6:36am | Edited 6:49am
Hi Mystz!

I have chosen to draw the whole zone because that's what I consider to be the zone. The chart you posted is a M1 timeframe. The one that was posted by Blitzkie is the Weekly. I will not trade from the Weekly or D1 chart, I just want to know where supply and demand is on the higher timeframes and look for lower timeframe's SD levels (H1 and H4).

I've seen Sam Seiden in some videos say what you have just said and in others say the opposite. I've seen him say that he will only take fresh levels and in others he has said that he will go long on a level over and over, up to 50 times if the level has not been penetrated more than 25% the previous 49 times. So, what to do? You decide. I did already, so I draw my levels like that for good or for worst. Since I am being more conservative, I guess I will not have as many losses as if I tried the reduced level, so it should be "positive".

Those examples you attached and Blitzkie's show an wide area and then a lower area which is the decision point, where price decided to break lower. You can do both, I will always take the whole area, being more conservative as you said, but I've seen so so many times price break those zones, and penetrate higher, that I will not take that risk any more. I prefer quality/conservativeness versus quantity/aggressivity. Even being conservative, you will have lots of losers, so would I want to be aggressive?

What is my conclusion? Screen time. You decide if you want to cover the whole zone or just the lower zone you painted. I'm always covering the swing highs/lows of any given zone. If I am in doubt, then I will do nothing and wait for price confirmation (brand new H1/H4 sd zone absorbing previous SD area).

REMEMBER: if you are confused or you are in doubt, don't do anything. That's the best thing you can do. Move on to another pair and look for clearer/cleaner levels. Go for quality and not quantity.

Hope that helps!
Alfonso




Quoting Myst1z
Hi Alfonso, actually I'm kinda confused about the way to draw zones too. In Blitzkie's chart, I would feel that he drew the upper zone correctly. I'm aware that including the swing high in the zone would be more conservative and safer, but I remember from Sam Seiden's webinars that he doesn't include the swing high when his zone is as such. Here are some relevant screenshots from his webinars: {image} The notes in the screenshots are paraphased from what Sam said, he mentioned that in such cases there is no need to include the swing high in the...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #313
  • Jul 1, 2013 6:59am Jul 1, 2013 6:59am
Hi Alfonso great clarification, thanks! Glad I'm not the only one who has heard Sam said conflicting things, sometimes it makes me want to pull my hair out
Ya I agree that very often price will break one zone to hit a further away stacked zone, still in the process of deciding whether i should just include both in my risk or put POs on both or only take the further away one. Seems like there is no one right method and there are pros and cons to each approach, ultimately a trade off between hit rate and RR of each trade.
  • #314
  • Jul 1, 2013 8:28am Jul 1, 2013 8:28am
You just have to decide a couple of things Mystz!

1. Are you a conservative or an aggressive trader? I am conservative
2. Which is your minimum R/R for any given trade? Mine is 3:1 minimum

Once you know that, do as planned.
Alfonso

Quoting Myst1z
Hi Alfonso great clarification, thanks! Glad I'm not the only one who has heard Sam said conflicting things, sometimes it makes me want to pull my hair out Ya I agree that very often price will break one zone to hit a further away stacked zone, still in the process of deciding whether i should just include both in my risk or put POs on both or only take the further away one. Seems like there is no one right method and there are pros and cons to each approach, ultimately a trade off between hit rate and RR of each trade.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #315
  • Jul 1, 2013 9:34am Jul 1, 2013 9:34am
Sell limit triggered on AUDUSD @ 1TF. Hope the trade works.

Please comment on my S/D zones also.

Thank you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 130 KB
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
  • #316
  • Jul 1, 2013 9:39am Jul 1, 2013 9:39am
It looks like a good trade! It's difficult to tell you because you posted your chart without showing the timeframe. Please always mention the timeframe or included it on the screenshot. Haven't looked at the audusd on my charts, my MT is off now. It looks like a good zone.

I would have painted the upper zone a bit different, see attachment. I agree on the other areas.
Alfonso

Quoting isko
Sell limit triggered on AUDUSD @ 1TF. Hope the trade works. Please comment on my S/D zones also. Thank you! {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 270 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #317
  • Jul 1, 2013 9:47am Jul 1, 2013 9:47am
Oh, I see, sorry for that, I just took the snap shot using the MT4 save picture. Anyway, this is a 1HR TF in AUDUSD.

thank you for looking into this Alfonso.

Quoting panoramia
It looks like a good trade! It's difficult to tell you because you posted your chart without showing the timeframe. Please always mention the timeframe or included it on the screenshot. Haven't looked at the audusd on my charts, my MT is off now. It looks like a good zone. I would have painted the upper zone a bit different, see attachment. I agree on the other areas. Alfonso {quote} {image}
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
  • #318
  • Jul 1, 2013 11:52am Jul 1, 2013 11:52am
Hi Alfonso,


Is the webinar will take place at the same time and date as expected?
  • #319
  • Jul 1, 2013 12:46pm Jul 1, 2013 12:46pm
Hi Isko,

I think Alfonso will tell you this when he turns his MT4 back on, but it looks to me like you sold audusd at a 1h level (speedbump), when it was bouncing up from a Daily Demand Zone. Just my opinion, but could be why that one didn't work. That speedbump was pretty wicky too, and counter to the 1h trend when hit. I don't do well with those. Believe me, I've made ALL the mistakes. :-)
  • #320
  • Jul 1, 2013 2:04pm Jul 1, 2013 2:04pm
Airation, the trade did not worked,

I think you are right with your observation, this will add up to my lesson learned lists since I believe I have more to understand how the market moves. Nevertheless, I will still be posting charts here, good or bad outcome, everyone is entitled to their options to help and enlighten everyone.

Thanks again airation.

Quoting airation
Hi Isko, I think Alfonso will tell you this when he turns his MT4 back on, but it looks to me like you sold audusd at a 1h level (speedbump), when it was bouncing up from a Daily Demand Zone. Just my opinion, but could be why that one didn't work. That speedbump was pretty wicky too, and counter to the 1h trend when hit. I don't do well with those. Believe me, I've made ALL the mistakes. :-)
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
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