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80-85% net winning percent. Should I move on demo?

  • #21
  • Jun 23, 2013 7:28am Jun 23, 2013 7:28am
Quoting Togu
{quote} How do you consider that as engulfing? that candle's high doesn't even engulf the previous bar's high. no?
Here I have indicated many engulfing bars. We consider shadows when we put the SL & TP targets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EB indited.png Size: 30 KB
  • #22
  • Jun 23, 2013 7:31am Jun 23, 2013 7:31am
Quoting Togu
{quote} oh ok. I remember you were saying you don't mind the wicks and shadows right. so 2nd bar's body must fully engulf the 1st bar in order to be called legit engulfing bar.

Yes exactly what I mean. Only the BODY of 2 candles is our concern, not the shadow
  • #23
  • Jun 23, 2013 7:47am Jun 23, 2013 7:47am
Ok, Just for some reference. Before I thought the wicks and shadows played important role as I don't have experience with engulfing bars before. But please bare some of your time and look at the chart below. Are these can be called legit EBs? the numbers on top represent bearish eb and below are bullish eb.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmdaily1.png Size: 34 KB
  • #24
  • Jun 23, 2013 7:50am Jun 23, 2013 7:50am
Quoting Togu
Ok, Just for some reference. Before I thought the wicks and shadows played important role as I don't have experience with engulfing bars before. But please bare some of your time and look at the chart below. Are these can be called legit EBs? the numbers on top represent bearish eb and below are bullish eb. Thanks {image}
Great, all of you EBs are correct. You have understood it rightly. Same thing goes for morning/evening stars. Let me upload an example of star formation as well.
  • #25
  • Jun 23, 2013 7:56am Jun 23, 2013 7:56am
Here, I have marked the 3 evening stars. If you notice the BODY of last candle completely engulfs the BODY of 1st candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MS.png Size: 27 KB
  • #26
  • Jun 23, 2013 8:08am Jun 23, 2013 8:08am
Quoting aarizahmad
Here, I have marked the 3 evening stars. If you notice the BODY of last candle completely engulfs the BODY of 1st candle. {image}
ok so the evening stars pattern's last candle should engulf the first bar. #2 was engulfed just little bit?
  • #27
  • Jun 23, 2013 8:26am Jun 23, 2013 8:26am
Quoting Togu
{quote} ok so the evening stars pattern's last candle should engulf the first bar. #2 was engulfed just little bit?

Yes, even a pip of last candle under the 1st candle means a valid signal IMO.
  • #28
  • Jun 23, 2013 8:30am Jun 23, 2013 8:30am
Quoting aarizahmad
Hello, I am new to Forex. For couple of weeks I have been extensively backtesting the Engulfing Bars at daily timeframe in the direction of the current major trend (I do not use it as reversal rather as continuation). I keep my reward:risk ratio to be 3:1. I often get 20 correct & 10 incorrect. So 20 correct * 3 = 60 profitable trades and 10 lossing trades. So by these numbers my NET PROFITABLE trades get to around 80-85% profitbale trades. I get 100 NET profitable trades per month on backtesting after winning trades*3 & deducting all losing trades....
Hey Aariz,

I wouldn't trust back testing all that much. Its impossible to avoid "after the fact" bias. I would strongly urge you to forward test the method on demo and see how it goes and whether you're getting your 100 trades a month.

It would be interesting to see how you would cope with side ways and choppy market conditions.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #29
  • Jun 23, 2013 8:41am Jun 23, 2013 8:41am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Aariz, I wouldn't trust back testing all that much. Its impossible to avoid "after the fact" bias. I would strongly urge you to forward test the method on demo and see how it goes and whether you're getting your 100 trades a month. It would be interesting to see how you would cope with side ways and choppy market conditions. g.
Sure dear, I am going to forward test is from tommorow. The way I backtest is that I open a chart and keep the page up button pressed & go back to as back as possible. Than step by step I keep on pressing the F12 button. By doing so I am unaware of the upcoming events on the charts, as I progress through the chart I keep on putting wins and losses in a notepad. When I have gone through some 4-5 years of data day by day I calculate the percent won & average trade per month. But honestly yaar on daily time frame huge patience is required as one has to keep the position opened for many days may be a week or 2.

Anyways, I am going to start the demo test from tommorow morning. Lets hope for the best
  • #30
  • Jun 23, 2013 8:46am Jun 23, 2013 8:46am
Will have more thoughts on this in the future as I trade not that a lot of pairs. Maybe 4-6, but certainly will look through how I can add some more positions once we have a valid EBs/ Evening/ Morning stars. And I'm too willing to test this on my live account.
  • #31
  • Jun 23, 2013 8:46am Jun 23, 2013 8:46am
Quoting aarizahmad
{quote} Sure dear, I am going to forward test is from tommorow. The way I backtest is that I open a chart and keep the page up button pressed & go back to as back as possible. Than step by step I keep on pressing the F12 button. By doing so I am unaware of the upcoming events on the charts, as I progress through the chart I keep on putting wins and losses in a notepad. When I have gone through some 4-5 years of data day by day I calculate the percent won & average trade per month. But honestly yaar on daily time frame huge patience is required as...
Fair enough.

Keep us posted on your progress

g.
I believe . . .
  • #32
  • Jun 24, 2013 5:45am Jun 24, 2013 5:45am
USDJPY the only one is close to eb. Anywayz let's wait for the close. Afte close we open the trade?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpydaily.png Size: 36 KB
  • #33
  • Edited 1:05pm Jun 29, 2013 12:31pm | Edited 1:05pm
Quoting aarizahmad
{quote}You have 5 years of trading experience. You are in better position to add more filters to it and make it even better.
You have a 66.6% strike rate with a 1:3 risk/reward. Im gonna go out on a limb here and say there are no filters that could improve on the results you are already getting. Determining the trend is a bit discretionary though. At what point do you determine that the trend has changed? Perhaps a moving average to determine the trend might help in unclear or reversal situations. It is best to have a clear rule to follow

Backtesting and demo results are not representative of live trading. Only demo long enough to ensure you can actually implement the strategy. Then go live with small risk and increase the risk over time if the live test proves profitable.

I like the system. It ticks all the boxes. You are with the trend and have confirmation of momentum as a trigger. I would expect this to work well.

Unfortunately I think your expectations are too high. The reality (more like 55% net winning percent if your lucky) will probably mean you move on in search of a more and bigger winners than losers, holy grail type system. If your bench mark is twice as many winners as losers and your winners to be 3x bigger, you are in for a very long search. Its gonna be a bit hard to take after 10 years when you realise you could have been trading profitably the whole time with a system you had since you were a noob
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #34
  • Jul 1, 2013 3:05am Jul 1, 2013 3:05am
Quote
Its gonna be a bit hard to take after 10 years when you realise you could have been trading profitably the whole time with a system you had since you were a noob

I totally agree with the statement above, because I too had the same thoughts and wished I had traded with reduced risk and with only one system. In mean time I was searching for the holy grail as well going for 50-100% per month, but I know that 10% monthly is very achievable goal. 100% per year and you will be millionaire let's say after 5-10yrs. My 5yrs already gone in a drain but at least I've started to realize what my mistake was and let's look forward for the next 5-10yrs.
  • #35
  • Nov 11, 2020 12:43pm Nov 11, 2020 12:43pm
Earning a fixed percentage can be very difficult for any trader. Proper knowledge can help you to become successful in this market.
  • #36
  • Nov 16, 2020 12:53am Nov 16, 2020 12:53am
% profit is so good. but equally important. that is time and a sustainable time with a profit is performance
  • #37
  • Nov 20, 2020 3:17am Nov 20, 2020 3:17am
A demo account is the best option to learn forex properly and perfectly.
  • #38
  • Nov 29, 2020 11:33pm Nov 29, 2020 11:33pm
The actual live and demo accounts are completely different. Conditions on the demo are not slippage but live is definitely slippage.
Trading on demo is very comfortable in terms of time. But when trading on live, traders must always pay attention.
The mood will be relieved, even if the market goes in the wrong direction. If you still live at a loss, it will be frustrating.
  • #39
  • Nov 30, 2020 9:14am Nov 30, 2020 9:14am
Quoting WillGagnon
Earning a fixed percentage can be very difficult for any trader. Proper knowledge can help you to become successful in this market.

Discipline, patience and right mindset are essential to achieve this kind of success. So, focus on those part who want to achieve success in trading.
  • #40
  • Nov 30, 2020 8:30pm Nov 30, 2020 8:30pm
Most traders look for 80 to 100% winning strategy. But this type of strategy doesn't exit. Even a small consistent percentage can bring you a fortune in trading. We should focus on consistency.
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