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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,301
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:00am Jun 27, 2013 5:00am
Quoting cuthbert
{quote} seems they don't chief. they seem delaying their plans. regards

what you mean?
is very clear, they capped the euro but is having difficulty on the downside.
so is rallying the cable.
markets not moved, but spreads widened.

they widen the offer push the bids.
just in case down push meets steam rollers.

all they need is if given. bid last offer and the offer will cause giver out of court and lost range.
market makers scalping.
nothing is happening.
just want your piptits.
  • #41,302
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:06am Jun 27, 2013 5:06am
Quoting fti
{quote}If your analysis focus is only abc , then thats may be only part of the piicture. stuff gets added and stuff gets retarded. I have very wide market focus. So things keeps getting inputed into the analysis as it comes on stream. Withour market on hands experience, some stuff may be meaningless to one, but may be whats driving market.
chief i tried that but is difficult have confidence in what i see.
so things get hypothesized and and feelings get creepy.
i remember when you posted about central bank of newzeland harkening on taking a slice from
all customer's deposit money. was a wide focus.
but things like that are less confidently treated on my part.
recent example will be to gauge aud behaviour with electioneering in austrailia.
that may really be a driving factor for today's aud rally and subsequent recedence.

regards
  • #41,303
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:09am Jun 27, 2013 5:09am
Quoting cuthbert
{quote} chief i tried that but is difficult have confidence in what i see. so things get hypothesized and and feelings get creepy. i remember when you posted about central bank of newzeland harkening on taking a slice from all customer's deposit money. was a wide focus. but things like that are less confidently treated on my part. recent example will be to gauge aud behaviour with electioneering in austrailia. that may really be a driving factor for today's aud rally and subsequent recedence. regards
they already took step back rethink, and you still thinking about something thats no more.
they trying emulate the cyprus incident, second thoughts and took step back.
and you still stuck in the past.

Fundemetally now , only factor still in play is every one thinking drop rates if needed.
next event upcoming is benenke. If he retards from fed then the question is who comes on chair and what he/she will do?
if status quo, probably usd going dive again. but i no crystal balls so deal with it when gets there.
of course also our daily course of figs medicine.

Every one wants be so clever have everything so well figured out.
if you KNOW. then sell the house and make a BOMB.



regards
  • #41,304
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:14am Jun 27, 2013 5:14am
Quoting fti
{quote} they already took step back rethink, and you still thinking about something thats no more. they trying emulate the cyprus incident, second thoughts and took step back. and you still stuck in the past. Fundemetally now , only factor still in play is every one thinking drop rates if needed. regards
only giving example of how i got you try have wide focus.
no old burden la. why should there be?
that alrady learnt from youtube episode.

regards
  • #41,305
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:15am Jun 27, 2013 5:15am
Quoting fti
{quote} nonono you also wrong. there no such thing as daily trend hourly trend........... is either they in line or out of line with trend. Your trend read is dependent on what your adopted time frame. Your pain treshhold is reflected in your mm. your analysis of whats happening is dependant on how much you had developed ability to focus on. If your analysis focus is only abc , then thats may be only part of the piicture. stuff gets added and stuff gets retarded. I have very wide market focus. So things keeps getting inputed into the analysis as...
Wow, well said fti. You just summarize years of experience into a few short sentences. It takes most people years to figure this out, and there are at least 1000 trading books out there that haven't figured this out yet. This one post should be dissected and studied carefully. This is why I like hanging around your thread!
  • #41,306
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:16am Jun 27, 2013 5:16am
Quoting fti
{quote} nonono, you not read the thread. sorry i not have energies rehash everything now. What you mentioned is how YOU want build your decision process. read thread. Maybe watch this clips first get the general mindset alligned. 4 parts. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aufuwMiKmE regards
I have read the first 200 posts of this thread - took me almost a month to get through but I have read them. I didn't go past 200 because it would take me years to catch up to this point which I think may be false economy. Maybe I haven't absorbed the trend part as I should have - but I didn't really see it discussed too much actually. Just that we should follow the trend, not how to identify it.

I understand that we cannot be rigid and therefore cannot have any strict rules of 'this is a trend' definition. Instead we need to adapt to what the market is telling us - but there must be some way to approach the idea of what the current trend might be. Judging from the replies by others and your replies to them, other people may not be grasping this idea too well either.

I also understand that you are teaching more of a mindset here and not trying to create copies of yourself (even tho I wish I could! ) but I feel this could be a fundamental point that would help alot.

And thanks for the video. I love Allan Watts btw.
  • #41,307
  • Edited 5:31am Jun 27, 2013 5:17am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Wow, well said fti. You just summarize years of experience into a few short sentences. It takes most people years to figure this out, and there are at least 1000 trading books out there that haven't figured this out yet. This one post should be dissected and studied carefully. This is why I like hanging around your thread!

oops my gold filling dropped out of my teeth?
How you doing, my friend?


regards
  • #41,308
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:23am Jun 27, 2013 5:23am
Quoting fti
{quote} nonono you also wrong. there no such thing as daily trend hourly trend........... is either they in line or out of line with trend. Your trend read is dependent on what your adopted time frame. Your pain treshhold is reflected in your mm. your analysis of whats happening is dependant on how much you had developed ability to focus on. If your analysis focus is only abc , then thats may be only part of the piicture. stuff gets added and stuff gets retarded. I have very wide market focus. So things keeps getting inputed into the analysis as...
Ok so I guess what your saying is that you take in all sorts of things - charts plus fundamental stuff thats going on as well. Not just what the charts are doing?

Thats over my head right now I guess. Trying to absorb that stuff but it makes me all foggy in my mind.
  • #41,309
  • Edited 5:37am Jun 27, 2013 5:24am | Edited 5:37am
Quoting nomadic123
{quote} I have read the first 200 posts of this thread - took me almost a month to get through but I have read them. I didn't go past 200 because it would take me years to catch up to this point which I think may be false economy. Maybe I haven't absorbed the trend part as I should have - but I didn't really see it discussed too much actually. Just that we should follow the trend, not how to identify it. I understand that we cannot be rigid and therefore cannot have any strict rules of 'this is a trend' definition. Instead we need to adapt to what...
fine you love him, by the way he's no more with us.
but do you get the point.
you approaching the picture 1 track mind.
i see all at once.
you see only a little. and have have to make decisions on the little that you see.
but of course is not as easy as just open eyes wider.
you need laern from markets, market body language idf you like. Is a big puzzle board and even i not got a full pic yet.
worst is our leaders , some CBs are doing double talk and make lots confusion.
when you cannot manage , just create confusion. that was what my middle managers expert in.

and if you fail, just send all the men out advertising & explain how difficult it is.
the strategy is called distraction.
don't go on the real issues. If can't shit, talk about the toilet. Maybe is because toilet bowl is too hard.



regards
  • #41,310
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:27am Jun 27, 2013 5:27am
Quoting fti
{quote} fine you love him, by the way he's no more with us. but do you get the point. you approaching the picture 1 track mind. i see all at once. you see only a little. and have have to make decisions on the little that you see. but of course is not as easy as just open eyes wider. you need laern from markets, market body language idf you like. Is a big puzzle board and even i not got a full pic yet. regards
Ok thanks for letting me down lightly here hehe

I understand now.
  • #41,311
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:37am Jun 27, 2013 5:37am
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/0...95Q02H20130627

Just read this. So, if you are a business (small or large) and you have your payroll funds deposited at the local (failing) bank, you are at risk of having a large portion of those funds removed from your account to help fund the failing bank? In that case, the employees are at risk, not the "rich" depositors. And any way, won't "rich" people now start pulling their money out of European banks and depositing elsewhere? Won't that make matters worse? Am I on another planet? I get having stockholder and bond holders who have invested risk capital in a bank, but now large deposits are considered risk capital?
  • #41,312
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:39am Jun 27, 2013 5:39am
Quoting fti
{quote} oops my gold filling dropped out of my teeth? How you doing, my friend? regards
Doing well fti, and hope the same for you. In the middle of summer here and have my kids at home, life could not be better. Am blessed in many ways.
  • #41,313
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:39am Jun 27, 2013 5:39am
now they made 1.5280 cap trying attract sucker sellers.maybe shoot some ducks at margin call?
  • #41,314
  • Edited 6:38am Jun 27, 2013 5:41am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting GEfx
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/0...95Q02H20130627 Just read this. So, if you are a business (small or large) and you have your payroll funds deposited at the local (failing) bank, you are at risk of having a large portion of those funds removed from your account to help fund the failing bank? In that case, the employees are at risk, not the "rich" depositors. And any way, won't "rich" people now start pulling their money out of European banks and depositing elsewhere? Won't that make matters worse? Am I on...

desperation, maybe. lines of survival.
better customers get bbqed then failing system.


regards

watching ec.
they cross dressers back?
now that cable hitting cap
they can try force euro down buy cheap.
i also not mind buy ec 0.8515 . anyone want give me?

15300 would be interesting

small shorts in us unemployment figs.
gambling again.
have foreign cap itchy backside.
  • #41,315
  • Jun 27, 2013 6:02am Jun 27, 2013 6:02am
why try 1.3028 early?
ok your choice.

regards
  • #41,316
  • Jun 27, 2013 7:32am Jun 27, 2013 7:32am
figs non event.
squaring.
sell higher.
bids everywhere

cannot even consider selling now.
  • #41,317
  • Jun 27, 2013 7:40am Jun 27, 2013 7:40am
got small fortune on yen spike, should be very nimble.
squaring all position.
steady as she goes
  • #41,318
  • Jun 27, 2013 7:59am Jun 27, 2013 7:59am
Quoting fti
{quote}
Fundemetally now , only factor still in play is every one thinking drop rates if needed.
next event upcoming is benenke.
If he retards from fed then the question is who comes on chair and what he/she will do?
if status quo, probably usd going dive again.
but i no crystal balls so deal with it when gets there. of course also our daily course of figs medicine.

good day sir,
i still cobbling my weakness on fundamental.
i just have little understanding about open market operation, credit expansion, money supply, and interest rate.

if i may ask, if there is any suggestion about fundamental subject that i should learn more deep?
steady as she goes
  • #41,319
  • Jun 27, 2013 8:40am Jun 27, 2013 8:40am
Quoting frz
{quote} good day sir, i still cobbling my weakness on fundamental. i just have little understanding about open market operation, credit expansion, money supply, and interest rate. if i may ask, if there is any suggestion about fundamental subject that i should learn more deep?
Yes! I think I need this too?
  • #41,320
  • Jun 27, 2013 8:49am Jun 27, 2013 8:49am
Quoting fti
figs non event. squaring. sell higher. bids everywhere cannot even consider selling now.
Are you talking about the cable here?
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