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95% traders go broke, only 5% survive

  • #61
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:47am Jun 26, 2013 2:47am
Quoting decades
I've been a member of a well known trading forum ( not FF ) for about 12 years. Pretty much all the posters from 10 years ago are gone now. Always wonder, did they wash out and move on or just get new alias's

the bigger a trader gets the less time he or she has to come talk trash on fx forums mostly populated by clueless traders. I mostly get bored staring at my computer screen so i just hop in here, smoke some weed and talk trash
  • #62
  • Jun 26, 2013 10:09am Jun 26, 2013 10:09am
I guess it takes some time before you figure out a way to reap consistent profits. I believe that one could definitely earn a living through trading forex. After all it is the largest traded market; there should be a reason why so many people are involved in this.
  • #63
  • Jun 26, 2013 11:28am Jun 26, 2013 11:28am
I've only recently begun participating in forums again, after having done so many years ago. They have not changed. There are many participants who are newbies, looking for a holy grail, and plenty of self-professed pros who say they make money like picking up a $20 bill on the sidewalk.

The fact of the matter is that the 95% loser rate is probably close to correct. A futures broker friend of mine, who has been in the business for 30 years, says he has NEVER seen a customer be profitable in the long run. Now, that doesn't mean anyone who traded with him has never been profitable in the long run...they may have just done this with another broker. Still, I found that statement to be truly enlightening, and judging from what I typically read in the forums, I am not at all surprised. I have also seen this type of comment elsewhere, where a broker indicated he had ONE successful trader as a client over the long run, and that client was mainly focused on longer term strategies, rather than day trading and scalping like everyone else.

Just my two cents.
  • #64
  • Jun 26, 2013 1:29pm Jun 26, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting stockietrade
I've only recently begun participating in forums again, after having done so many years ago. They have not changed. There are many participants who are newbies, looking for a holy grail, and plenty of self-professed pros who say they make money like picking up a $20 bill on the sidewalk. The fact of the matter is that the 95% loser rate is probably close to correct. A futures broker friend of mine, who has been in the business for 30 years, says he has NEVER seen a customer be profitable in the long run. Now, that doesn't mean anyone who traded...

Livermore wrote that no one can beat the market in the longrun.How prescient he was.I remember Richard Dennis interview in 2004 and he sounded defeated,he admitted that the markets have become really difficult.The truth is that markets are becoming more efficient,there are no success stories like in the 70s-80s.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #65
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:31pm Jun 26, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting pemully
{quote} Livermore wrote that no one can beat the market in the longrun.How prescient he was.I remember Richard Dennis interview in 2004 and he sounded defeated,he admitted that the markets have become really difficult.The truth is that markets are becoming more efficient,there are no success stories like in the 70s-80s.
Meanwhile, Dennis's old partner Eckhardt continues to have a successful career as a trend follower.

A friend of mine has worked for three successful hedge funds over the last 20 years. About ten years ago, when he was in transition, he tried his hand at proprietary trading. His method depended upon large directional daily moves. But, that summer volatility was low. He concluded that the markets were becoming too efficient and it would be difficult making money any more. Meanwhile, 2008 happened.

What has happened in just the last six months? Huge moves in the Yen, Nikkei, U.S. stocks, Aussie$, Gold, Silver, etc. Dunn Capital, the purest of the trend followers, is up 24% this year through May.
  • #66
  • Jun 26, 2013 3:10pm Jun 26, 2013 3:10pm
Quoting stockietrade
{quote} ..... Meanwhile, 2008 happened. What has happened in just the last six months? Huge moves in the Yen, Nikkei, U.S. stocks, Aussie$, Gold, Silver, etc. Dunn Capital, the purest of the trend followers, is up 24% this year through May.
November 2008 was my best-ever month. As a result I was totally hooked. I have never repeated that success....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #67
  • Jun 26, 2013 3:17pm Jun 26, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting stockietrade
{quote} Meanwhile, Dennis's old partner Eckhardt continues to have a successful career as a trend follower. A friend of mine has worked for three successful hedge funds over the last 20 years. About ten years ago, when he was in transition, he tried his hand at proprietary trading. His method depended upon large directional daily moves. But, that summer volatility was low. He concluded that the markets were becoming too efficient and it would be difficult making money any more. Meanwhile, 2008 happened. What has happened in just the last six months?...

Most of the trendfollowing funds are still below equity highs.Dunn has had some crazy drawdowns (50%). This decade has been a disaster for trendfollowing,the equity curves have been largely flat.Henry closed shop and clients have withdrawn over 50% of their funds from trendfollowing funds including eckhardts...maybe a sign the market is about to begin trending.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #68
  • Jun 26, 2013 3:36pm Jun 26, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting pemully
{quote} Most of the trendfollowing funds are still below equity highs.Dunn has had some crazy drawdowns (50%). This decade has been a disaster for trendfollowing,the equity curves have been largely flat.Henry closed shop and clients have withdrawn over 50% of their funds from trendfollowing funds including eckhardts...maybe a sign the market is about to begin trending.
I would say that is exactly right, and they probably already have.
  • #69
  • Jun 26, 2013 4:23pm Jun 26, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting Makavell
{quote} the bigger a trader gets the less time he or she has to come talk trash on fx forums mostly populated by clueless traders. I mostly get bored staring at my computer screen so i just hop in here, smoke some weed and talk trash

giz a drag
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #70
  • Jun 26, 2013 8:48pm Jun 26, 2013 8:48pm
found this: http://forexmagnates.com/us-forex-br...st-profitable/

slightly outdated, but you can see that the majority still lose money.
  • #71
  • Jun 27, 2013 1:46am Jun 27, 2013 1:46am
Quoting jhehe
found this: http://forexmagnates.com/us-forex-br...st-profitable/ slightly outdated, but you can see that the majority still lose money.
Thanks for this! It explains why my profitability has improved since I switched to OandA.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #72
  • Jun 27, 2013 3:47am Jun 27, 2013 3:47am
Still looking for the true answer...

It's not that hard to be profitable so the statistic of 95% being broke still doesn't make sense to me.
  • #73
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:19am Jun 27, 2013 5:19am
Because only those 5% are disciplined and patient enough to wait for their turn.
  • #74
  • Jun 27, 2013 7:41am Jun 27, 2013 7:41am
threads like this is too depressing and negative.
8 out of 10 restaurants fail within 1st year of opening.Should that stop everyone trying?
Trading is hard work and most importantly one must develop patience.Increase your odds of success by trading daily and weekly charts.
Money is on longer TF.Not that you can't scalp or day trade but vast majority of failures are traders trading shorter TF with accounts that can't handle orders.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #75
  • Jun 27, 2013 8:16am Jun 27, 2013 8:16am
Quoting sandycarrot
... ,,but,, in every internet forum we see and hear this many people say they are profitable ...
In fact, it's simple to recognize those that are spreading bs and those that just put on the table what they are doing. This is why I don't trust anyone anymore until they show me a trade explorer linked to a live account where I can look at the trades that illustrate their theories.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #76
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:52am Jun 27, 2013 9:52am
Quoting Vitez
Still looking for the true answer... It's not that hard to be profitable so the statistic of 95% being broke still doesn't make sense to me.
Did you not read the report pointed to by jhehe?
It is quite apparent from the table within the article that the number of profitable traders with the various brokers ranges from about 20% (1 in 5) to about 40% (1 in 2.5). The other way to interpret those figures is to say that the unprofitable or losing traders as a percentage range from about 80% to about 60% depending upon which broker they happen to be with.
The specific metric which is missing is the number of traders who run their accounts with some profit, but who then blow their accounts within a few days.

I find it very interesting that the ratio varies by broker. That aside, it means that the percentage who go broke is probably around 70% and that around 1 in 4 people could go on to make a success of trading.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #77
  • Jun 27, 2013 3:27pm Jun 27, 2013 3:27pm
1 out of 4 that's more like it IMO. perhaps 95% is a lie..
  • #78
  • Jun 27, 2013 7:34pm Jun 27, 2013 7:34pm
yup its more like 20-30% of traders are profitable.

just because you aren't doesn't mean that 99% of traders are unprofitable.

its actually a guarantee to be profitable if you use very small size and scale in entries (and have the slightest idea how to trade)

most brokers i have seen have 20-30% of accounts in the green.


problem i see with most traders is they use too tight of stop losses at the wrong time.. let your trade breath and you will win its almost guaranteed
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #79
  • Jun 28, 2013 5:36am Jun 28, 2013 5:36am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
yup its more like 20-30% of traders are profitable. just because you aren't doesn't mean that 99% of traders are unprofitable. its actually a guarantee to be profitable if you use very small size and scale in entries (and have the slightest idea how to trade) most brokers i have seen have 20-30% of accounts in the green. problem i see with most traders is they use too tight of stop losses at the wrong time.. let your trade breath and you will win its almost guaranteed
100% agree.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #80
  • Jun 28, 2013 5:57am Jun 28, 2013 5:57am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
yup its more like 20-30% of traders are profitable. just because you aren't doesn't mean that 99% of traders are unprofitable. its actually a guarantee to be profitable if you use very small size and scale in entries (and have the slightest idea how to trade) most brokers i have seen have 20-30% of accounts in the green. problem i see with most traders is they use too tight of stop losses at the wrong time.. let your trade breath and you will win its almost guaranteed
Agree with you mate. When losing, people try to justify themselves by saying this.
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