Strategies with a 50% win ratio? | Forex Factory

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Strategies with a 50% win ratio?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 25, 2013 4:16pm Jun 25, 2013 4:16pm
Are there any strategies that have a 50% win ratio that you know of?
  • #2
  • Jun 25, 2013 5:38pm Jun 25, 2013 5:38pm
Yes: at exactly 7 minutes past every hour, without even looking at a chart, enter a long EUR/USD trade at market price with a 7-pip TP and a 7-pip SL. Set and forget. That's it. I've never tried it, but it will clearly average out over the year at a 50% win ratio. Less dealing costs, of course. Exactly as will hundreds of thousands of other completely random "systems" with an overall 50/50 chance.

Why do you ask?
  • #3
  • Jun 25, 2013 9:14pm Jun 25, 2013 9:14pm
Quoting Xela
Yes: at exactly 7 minutes past every hour, without even looking at a chart, enter a long EUR/USD trade at market price with a 7-pip TP and a 7-pip SL. Set and forget. That's it. I've never tried it, but it will clearly average out over the year at a 50% win ratio. Less dealing costs, of course. Exactly as will hundreds of thousands of other completely random "systems" with an overall 50/50 chance. Why do you ask?
Because of the spread, mathematically, that is unlikely to achieve a win rate of 50%
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #4
  • Jun 26, 2013 12:22am Jun 26, 2013 12:22am
Quoting Xela
Yes: at exactly 7 minutes past every hour, without even looking at a chart, enter a long EUR/USD trade at market price with a 7-pip TP and a 7-pip SL. Set and forget. That's it. I've never tried it, but it will clearly average out over the year at a 50% win ratio. Less dealing costs, of course. Exactly as will hundreds of thousands of other completely random "systems" with an overall 50/50 chance. Why do you ask?
Because its hard to find a decent strategy out here.. I think 50% win ratio is a good place to start.
  • #5
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:04am Jun 26, 2013 2:04am
Quoting focusonmoney
Are there any strategies that have a 50% win ratio that you know of?
Click on the link in my signature valid as of today's date June 26 2013

Go to Trade Report = 63% out of almost 300 trades over last 3 weeks

This post may or may not be valid in the future

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #6
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:11am Jun 26, 2013 2:11am
Quoting focusonmoney
{quote} Because its hard to find a decent strategy out here.. I think 50% win ratio is a good place to start.
50% win ratio doesn't make a strategy to be a winner. You can even have a win ratio of 75% but a loss in money. At opposite, you can have a win ratio of 25% but earn money.

The important thing is the risk to reward ratio.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #7
  • Jun 26, 2013 4:18am Jun 26, 2013 4:18am
Top intraday traders aim for a minimum 50% winning rate, + higher R (avg. at least 1.5R)
  • #8
  • Jun 26, 2013 5:12am Jun 26, 2013 5:12am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} 50% win ratio doesn't make a strategy to be a winner. You can even have a win ratio of 75% but a loss in money. At opposite, you can have a win ratio of 25% but earn money. The important thing is the risk to reward ratio.
Imprint this quote from FerruFx into your brain. This is how you succeed in the business.
  • #9
  • Jun 26, 2013 5:15am Jun 26, 2013 5:15am
Quoting focusonmoney
Are there any strategies that have a 50% win ratio that you know of?
Here's your answer http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69170
  • #10
  • Jun 26, 2013 9:58am Jun 26, 2013 9:58am
Quoting FerruFx
... You can even have a win ratio of 75% but a loss in money...
+1

There is a strategy in this forum with statistically 93.6% success rate. Yet it is doomed to failure (negative expectency)!
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #11
  • Jun 26, 2013 10:03am Jun 26, 2013 10:03am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} +1 There is a strategy in this forum with statistically 93.6% success rate. Yet it is doomed to failure (negative expectency)!
Yes this is generally the case with strategies with a large (or no) SL and small TP.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #12
  • Jun 26, 2013 11:19am Jun 26, 2013 11:19am
It ain't how many times you win, it's how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose. Once you figure out your trade expectancy, then you need to figure out your risk of ruin so you can determine how much to bet. With that said, there is a lot more to trading than the entry and exit.
  • #13
  • Jun 26, 2013 1:16pm Jun 26, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting Gumrai
{quote} Because of the spread, mathematically, that is unlikely to achieve a win rate of 50%
That's why I said "excluding dealing costs".

That's going to be true for all random "systems", and is why forex isn't really a zero sum game.
  • #14
  • Last Post: Jun 26, 2013 2:23pm Jun 26, 2013 2:23pm
most working strategies for retail traders win less than 50%.I saw fxcm research showing that losing traders win an average of 65% but have a win/loss of 0.5.

Almost all high win strategies end in wipe out in less than 3yrs.you can confirm this on zulu and other signal providers.None crosses the 3 year barrier when the optimized systems become poop. There is no known long term profitable trader with more than 61% win rate.Cohen said his top trader wins about 63%,Marty schwartz said he win about 60%.These are the best of the best!!!

If you have 3yrs of more than 300 live trades and you still positive with a jagged but ascending equity curve you're worth of breaking bread with the gods.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
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