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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #41,201
  • Jun 25, 2013 12:18pm Jun 25, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
I've had it with Alpari. 20 minutes their price feed was down again. This has happened about 5 times in the last month and each time they tell me it is a problem that only affected a small number of accounts - as if that's supposed to make me feel any better!! And why is my account always included in the small number that are affected? If they can't solve a technical issue in 4 weeks, they don't deserve my business, or anybody else's for that matter. Anybody got any recommendations for a UK based broker with decent spreads and easy deposit...
Hi Ukman!
I could recommend German broker that I use. Easy deposit and withdrawal, but a little paperwork for opening acc. If interested.... let me know and I will PM the name.
  • #41,202
  • Jun 25, 2013 12:22pm Jun 25, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting Jaro
{quote} Hi Ukman! I could recommend German broker that I use. Easy deposit and withdrawal, but a little paperwork for opening acc. If interested.... let me know and I will PM the name.
Hi Jaro. Thanks for the reply. It depends if they have a UK bank account or not. If I have to send funds internationally, the fees get a bit too much.

Cheers.
  • #41,203
  • Jun 25, 2013 12:27pm Jun 25, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Hi Jaro. Thanks for the reply. It depends if they have a UK bank account or not. If I have to send funds internationally, the fees get a bit too much. Cheers.
I will PM the name and you can check it out. I know they improved deposits, but I do not know to which end...
  • #41,204
  • Jun 25, 2013 12:32pm Jun 25, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting Jaro
{quote} I will PM the name and you can check it out. I know they improved deposits, but I do not know to which end...
UKman, check your PM
  • #41,205
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:38pm Jun 25, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting Jaro
{quote} UKman, check your PM
Thanks, I got it. Need to check transfer fees with them - probably give them a call tomorrow.

Cheers!
  • #41,206
  • Jun 25, 2013 5:14pm Jun 25, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Thanks, I got it. Need to check transfer fees with them - probably give them a call tomorrow. Cheers!

I used Alpari for a short while and the slippage was terrible. I dont know if it was them or beacuse of MT4 but either way i hated it. I really dont like using MT4 Either. Currently using Oanda.

Have you thought about FXCM.? I was thinking about them recently.
  • #41,207
  • Edited 9:47pm Jun 25, 2013 9:24pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting Acs_112
{quote} I used Alpari for a short while and the slippage was terrible. I dont know if it was them or beacuse of MT4 but either way i hated it. I really dont like using MT4 Either. Currently using Oanda. Have you thought about FXCM.? I was thinking about them recently.
I only ever tried MT4 live with Alpari - you had to hit the sell button 5 or 6 times as prices were moving away from you in fast-moving markets, and quite often got requotes or "context busy" messages at other times too.

There's no slippage on their MT5 ECN account - it's fill or kill - unfortunately, sometimes you don't notice your order was killed until after the fact. On the whole though, I don't have a problem with their order fills, spreads, withdrawals, deposits etcetera, just the price feed going down. I do have a small account with Oanda and their MT4 platform seems reliable so I might move the rest of my money over to them.

FXCM.......I can't even remember what it was that I read but I am sure they have been in trouble with the regulatory authorities for dubious practices before - there is something at the back of my mind thnat puts me off them anyway. One thing that definitely puts me off them is their aggressive sales techniques.

I looked at the broker Jaro suggested but unfortunately they only have bank accounts in three European countries, none of which is the UK. I bank with a building society that uses an intermediary bank for international transfers, which means it is more expensive for me to make international transfers so I don't think they are going to be a good choice. I have been demoing Gain's MT4 offering and they seem OK......I'm not sure what to do next really.

I haven't lost any money because of the price feed issues with Alpari but you can imagine what it does to your mindset when you have to deal with technical problems like that - it puts you right off, you lose your rhythm and you get angry; not a good combination.

I like the look of Divisa Capital - they have currenenex viking, a reasonable opening account balance requirement and they are not afraid to advertise their liquidity providers. However, they are an LLC, which worries me a little. I might start looking into futures trading and see if the commmissions would kill me or not. I really don't know what to do at the moment.

I was almost ready to open an account with Pepperstone until they refused to answer my question on capitalisation - told me they were a private firm and not required to release such details (not quite so bluntly but that was the gist of their answer - no way to get figures as you can for Oanda and others)
  • #41,208
  • Jun 25, 2013 10:39pm Jun 25, 2013 10:39pm
Dear FTI and friends ,

I'm attempting to dance with one pair, USD/JPY.
i'll be putting my thoughts here, and i would be most glad if you can give me your thoughts.

on the UJ hourly, price is heading north, so i will be a bull.
at this point in the chart, i see a "head and shoulder" formation developing, but all patterns are continuously developing so i will keep monitoring.
I will wait until london open before looking at how price responds before entry.

Good trading to all.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2013-06-26 at 11.38.36 AM.png Size: 37 KB
  • #41,209
  • Jun 25, 2013 11:00pm Jun 25, 2013 11:00pm
Quoting appleboy
Dear FTI and friends , I'm attempting to dance with one pair, USD/JPY. i'll be putting my thoughts here, and i would be most glad if you can give me your thoughts. on the UJ hourly, price is heading north, so i will be a bull. at this point in the chart, i see a "head and shoulder" formation developing, but all patterns are continuously developing so i will keep monitoring. I will wait until london open before looking at how price responds before entry. Good trading to all. {image} {image}
Please take the following comments with a large pinch of salt, because I am not fti and it is your money that you are trading.....

Bear in mind that the up leg you are looking at on the H1 chart could be a pullback after the first leg of a down move and the fact you see a head and shoulders forming means that it could be about to head down for the second leg. As can also be deduced from that H & S pattern, it has been trading in something of a range since last Thursday. JPY has been strong in the crosses this morning too (although that seems to be changing as I type). So my advice would be to proceed with caution. However, I must reiterate that I am absolutely not qualified, either professionally or in terms of past successes, to offer advice so do not let my thinking influence yours. I only replied because you asked for comments.

I'm not sure why you want to wait for London open - I know the largest volume takes place during London trading hours but JPY should be fairly active in Asian session....

Good luck whatever you do and don't listen to me Certainly don't sit there and watch it shoot up because some fool on here told you to take care! If you are happy with your analysis, enter a position when you feel it is right to do so.

I'm also looking to get in on the long side of USD but probably in the Euro as I don't like the look of JPY. All this is subjective thinking and is not set in stone though. I, or anybody else, could tell you one thing and then change our mind in ten minutes time.
  • #41,210
  • Jun 26, 2013 1:39am Jun 26, 2013 1:39am
On this note about USD/JPY and which leg it is etc there is something I would like some clarification on please (hopefully from fti if he is around )

I know that at all times we should be following the trend. That is number 1 rule. Don't trade against the trend.

I have always taken that to mean we should look to the daily charts and judge from the overall picture where price is going. If it is making higher highs and lower lows then we are in an up trend.

But since the daily is far removed from 5 min time frame I have been thinking lately fti might have meant we should find something on the daily charts with an immediate up/down leg and take that as the current direction of price. This in turn makes a nice higher high and lower low trend formation on the hourly. And use the 5 min for entry.

I know nothing is set in stone, but generally overall there must be some pattern to the way fti determines current price bias. Would love to know more
  • #41,211
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:02am Jun 26, 2013 2:02am
Hi ukman and appleboy

if I could just point out one thing,

'I, or anybody else, could tell you one thing and then change our mind in ten minutes time.'

This should never happen, no matter who it is stating the market is going to do this or that, in my experience we should make our own decisions and learn to live with them, learn from them or change direction, this teaches YOU how to react to the market and gives you the confidence you need to do this trading thingy without the scorpions stinging you to badly, I have found that cutting all/most of the rubbish that we decorate our charts with was only a distraction for our mind and hindered the self learning process severely, if you let your mind do the work and trust in YOUR OWN abilility to deal with your decisions then the confidence to trade well embeds itself into your intuition which will then lead you to better decision making in your trading.

@ukman... I use pepper, though I do not keep a big account with them, just enough to do my trading, I found them really good, I did have a problem with the platform freezing and being slow to execute, as soon as I told them about this they sorted it (a new account on a different server) and my chart and execution are back to as good as they get, one thing with pepper is that you get filled at market, so no re-quotes or any of that other rubbish and the slippage (if any) is minimal even in fast markets, to me the looked quite highly regulated but I am far from an accountant and lack that type of knowledge completely, I am not trying to convince you about them, it makes no difference to me, just stating my experience with them for you.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,212
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:20am Jun 26, 2013 2:20am
Quoting phil13
Hi ukman and appleboy if I could just point out one thing, 'I, or anybody else, could tell you one thing and then change our mind in ten minutes time.' This should never happen, no matter who it is stating the market is going to do this or that, in my experience we should make our own decisions and learn to live with them, learn from them or change direction, this teaches YOU how to react to the market and gives you the confidence you need to do this trading thingy without the scorpions stinging you to badly, I have found that cutting all/most of...
I'm not really sure what you're saying there Phil. My opinion of where price might go changes as the action unfolds. I don't mean that I keep flipping my position but for example, I did enter two shorts on EUR/USD earlier and cut them both with a very small profit because I could see it wasn't behaving as I thought it might at this moment in time. I went short USD/JPY instead and made some money.
  • #41,213
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:23am Jun 26, 2013 2:23am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I'm not really sure what you're saying there Phil. My opinion of where price might go changes as the action unfolds. I don't mean that I keep flipping my position but for example, I did enter two shorts on EUR/USD earlier and cut them both with a very small profit because I could see it wasn't behaving as I thought it might at this moment in time. I went short USD/JPY instead and made some money.


Hi ukman

yes, they were YOUR decisions though, my friend.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,214
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:27am Jun 26, 2013 2:27am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi ukman yes, they were YOUR decisions though, my friend. Regards Phil.
Yes I know. That's why I said don't listen to my opinions.

Edit: Maybe I wasn't clear in my first post. When I said we could tell you something and change our minds in ten minutes time, I meant even if my market read was accurate it would not be worth anything to anybody else because I might change my mind after saying one thing on here and then do another thing completely. I think we are probably in agreement but just misunderstanding each other.

I would never follow anybody else's advice on price direction, not even fti's. If I did, I would have no idea why I was in a trade, no confidence in my position and no idea what to do next.
  • #41,215
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:40am Jun 26, 2013 2:40am
Hi ukman

yes, I believe we mean the same thing, make only your own trading decision and do not be swayed/influenced by others, I misunderstood the meaning of the line I took from your post, apologies.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,216
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:45am Jun 26, 2013 2:45am
Quoting phil13
Hi ukman yes, I believe we mean the same thing, make only your own trading decision and do not be swayed/influenced by others, I misunderstood the meaning of the line I took from your post, apologies. Regards Phil.
No worries, No need to apologise. Having looked at it again, I don't think I read your post properly before replying!

Cheers
  • #41,217
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:49am Jun 26, 2013 2:49am
i don't see what's the harm of sharing your opinion of the same chart with people who are trading in the same daylight as you. it allows you to see different perspective. but ultimately its YOU who filters all the info and make the decision to trade or not yourself. so i personally would love to see sharing of opinions and views..
  • #41,218
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:56am Jun 26, 2013 2:56am
Hi kinky

that is not what I (nor ukman I believe) am saying, sharing is good to give you ideas I agree, but do not let anyone say this is going down and then you doubt yourself and flip or take a trade in that direction, make your own decision free from bias.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #41,219
  • Jun 26, 2013 3:11am Jun 26, 2013 3:11am
It did go down nearly 50 pips after my post though <<====== Ego post.
  • #41,220
  • Jun 26, 2013 3:20am Jun 26, 2013 3:20am
Quoting phil13
Hi kinky that is not what I (nor ukman I believe) am saying, sharing is good to give you ideas I agree, but do not let anyone say this is going down and then you doubt yourself and flip or take a trade in that direction, make your own decision free from bias. Regards Phil.
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