(binned per thread starter's request) The big... IF

I have been spending too much time looking at the stock market and this is not good for my forex activities. More attention to the charts is required.

And so I have re-positioned my portfolio using the Warren Buffet method, which I have been using for at least a couple of years now. For the ignoratii, Warren Buffet uses mostly value investing and 'time in the market' to make money. To follow time in the market means that one must be comfortable with the stocks that have been bought, and then just leave them to do their thing with occasional monitoring. It unfortunately also means that considerable research is necessary to arrive at the position of identifying under valued stocks, understanding why they are under valued, and having a view of the prospects or economic conditions that will cause those stocks to gain value.

My portfolio will require review when the economies of Europe and the UK start to improve, when those economies emerge from this moribund state of stagnation. Speaking generally of course, there are parts which are doing Ok, and when the economic changes occur some re-positioning may be necessary as new value candidates emerge. My current 6-year plan extends to the end of 2017. It is on track to deliver promisingly but there can be upsets from the economy, and from the 'unknowns' that exist in the dark corners of company accounts - just look at the banks for example!

I have 15 years experience with the stock market. For any who are aware of my favour of the house building sector I have this to say on the subject: recent UK policy inducements seem to be working and this will benefit the labour force and associated companies; further, there are two companies (at least) issuing trading statements within the next 3 weeks, and results to follow a few weeks after. The trading statements will move the market more than the subsequent results, so if you believe there is upside news to come then be 'in' before the trading statements. Caveat: there always has to be one, stock prices have run up between 130% and 160% in the last 12 months; a retracement is entirely possible and will depend upon the level of positive surprise in the statements - as always.

The beer fund took a loss last week going the wrong way on Cable, not a huge loss, merely disappointing.

Today I made 1% going long in UJ, 97.25 -> 98.01. First trade I have made in a while (it seems) so that was uplifting. Still have my other UJ and EJ longs open - it could be a long wait but there are signs of bullish movement returning ...so long as Abe does not come out with any more anaemic statements.

The beer fund has had a lean month. The small profit on closed positions is not even worth mentioning. Now that I am using a broker who will not let me open a position in both directions I am struggling to handle my losing positions adequately. Or maybe not.... when my UJ position comes up for closure I shall try opening a short position to see what happens. My UJ position is within a few pips of profit so I don't have long to wait to find out.

My EJ position still has a way to go. If the dollar is really going to get a whole lot stronger against everything else I may have to work on my contingency plans. Time to pay more attention to the price action and a little less to my beliefs in the fundamentals.

When Abe and BB appeared to collude to shake-out the markets the result was a 20% drop on the Nikkei over a few weeks, IIRC, and sympathetic falls around the world. UJ followed them down. Despite the efforts of some prat who writes for the Telegraph a sense of relief has returned and my main stock portfolios are about 2% under their peak back in May. Some more house-builder reports are coming out in early July, I am expecting enthusiastic reports which should drive prices quite a bit higher. Also I have dumped Barclays stock in favour of another bank which continued to perform well over the past month, and that kept a floor under the other downward movements.

Stock markets continue to be a bit jittery. Recently the BoE and ECB have started issuing 'guidance' about their policies and that has pushed European markets up. That combined with a very healthy trading statement from a house-builder pushed my stocks portfolio to a new high. This was very welcome because there have been some large retracements since BB and Abe stirred the pot. Next week a different house-builder is also issuing a trading statement and I am expecting some good numbers and a positive business outlook. Not all house-builders are doing well, but those in recovery are performing nicely and still have a couple of years left in them.

The beer fund crept ahead again this week. I closed my previous UJ position in profit, and opened another about an hour before the NFP. So I now have a UJ position in substantial profit and an EJ position that still has a way to go..... Also I think I screwed up with an impulsive long entry on Cable last Thursday. I will watch this a bit closely, and I think it is going to hurt......

The previously mentioned house-builder's trading statement arrives tomorrow. I missed the one yesterday from Bovis Homes (or Bovis Hovis as reported in Digital Look ) and just look at what it did to the sector. A similar report tomorrow should fire things again, at which point I might step out temporarily because there is some exhaustion becoming apparent in the sector.

Also the UK government is receiving serious interest for half of the bailout-equity in one of the rescued banks. The relevant bank is now well above the government's break-even share price and is dragging the rest of the sector along with it - even RBS is benefiting.

Thank you again China! Marvelous trading statement caused temporary encouragement almost immediately drowned by Chinese data.

The beer fund continues to make small advances. So far up 2.7% on the month, I could wish for better but at least it is 'up'.

A week ago I considered dumping all my negative positions and swallowing the 10% draw-down. Well I am glad that I did not do that. I closed one of my Cable positions in profit leaving the original mistake closing in on a profit - currently costing me 0.3% draw-down. Even better the 4hr chart is showing promise for Cable to continue up with a possibility of 400 pips; in which case I shall remove the TP and I will be applying a SL at break-even as soon as I have enough pips in hand to make it relatively safe.

That leaves my EJ position(s) which have been open 2 months!! The second is in the same degree of draw-down as my Cable position above. It has a TP for a 1% win and it might catch that on Monday after the Japanese elections. The first position has further to go to break-even. I could close both positions at 132.80 for a small net win but that would be disappointing. So things remain as they are until after the weekend, not least because 132.80 is a way off.

I have had a few successful UJ trades giving most of the month's profit. Generally though my trading has stalled due to carrying some positions that became seriously negative at points a week ago. That pressure prohibited me from taking some more lucrative long entries that presented themselves, or even taking some short positions on the way down. On my part I still have to work on self-discipline. You might think I would have learned that by now...

LOL tough old game, adding myself here, good to see someone actually working hard for it, keep it up!!

Thanks

I chickened-out and closed my remaining Cable position for small profit.
That leaves my EJ position(s) to enjoy the celebrations of an Abe landslide on Sunday/Monday.

Now very occasionally an odd thing happens on the forum, and such an odd thing happened on Sunday. There I was, reading a multi-page article from the New York Times about how some banks had bought the aluminium warehousing facilities near Detroit, iirc. The scam being that warehousing charges rent for storing aluminium ingots. An ingot weighs 1500lbs. The ruse is that although there are rules about how long an ingot can be stored before it has to be moved, (? !!) it only has to move out of the current storage facility to somewhere else - such as another storage facility. So there appears to be a merry-go-round of ingots moving from A to B to C and incurring storage charges along the way. All of which gradually pushes up the price of aluminium.

So as I flipped from page 2 to page 3 I encountered an 'internet error'. A bit of persistence revealed that I could not find any of the pages which I had just read. A bit more persistence and bingo! ...the link from the FF news columns has disappeared. So I waited a while and no news on this story. Did anybody see this story? Is it completely false?

Well... here (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/goldman-sachsin-spotlight-over-aluminium-pricehike-scandal-8727125.html) is coverage from a UK news sheet, and here (http://au.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-aluminum-fact-sheet-2013-7) is the denial. So that's Ok then....

The beer fund creeps ahead.... now up 3.1% on the month.

The beer fund creeps ahead again! Now up 4.3%. Just need another small win to achieve the significant milestone of 50% on the year so far.

Since last Friday I have scratched a few pips here and there. Tempted by Cable on a couple of occasions - what were disappointing positions at the time turned into something quite rewarding, learned a bit there too. Also sneaked a few shorts on UJ which compensated for my moribund EJ position. Yen crosses were doing Ok until today, part of my EJ closed in profit leaving one underwater position. Despite all the hype it may be that the Yen will not weaken significantly any time soon. The Japanese economy is reviving courtesy of Abenomics, and a little inflation is starting to creep in there. I shall have to ponder what difference that will make to the Yen in general. The hype-engines are now moving away from weak Yen to weak USD, but that may all change with the NFP next week...

I have realised that the psychological side of trading has suppressed me over the past couple of months. Two things, increasing the default trade size and carrying some seriously drawn-down positions, had weakened my resolve. Also my stocks portfolio is distracting me even though I have streamlined it for minimal supervision. The result has been that not enough analysis has gone into my charts further resulting in me not taking many trades. My portfolio is 2 orders of magnitude bigger than the beer fund so it merits a little TLC now and then.

The beer fund is up over 50% on the year

...and now, the truth
I have finished for the month and the beer fund is up 5.3%, that leaves two exciting days packed with central bank breeze and the NFP.
My accounting runs on the closed trades basis, and I still have one open EJ position, it needs a good shove at the moment.
That aside, if I were to close this EJ position I am still up on the month, so it is not a catastrophe.
It will be nice to see another monthly figure above 10%.....

Thanks to some good numbers from construction PMI I managed to close my impulsive Cable long, in profit.

At the moment I have a long on UJ which has crept ahead. I considered adding to this before the NFP, and have decided not to do that. I am expecting a good shove on UJ, and that should also shove my EJ position in a favourable direction, but unless there is a huge surprise in the numbers UJ could rebound of the 100 round number.

Today the Exodus European Recovery Fund (EERF - aka my portfolio) posted its second significant milestone.
The market has been teasing me all July, nearly getting there and then falling back, then nearly getting there....
Today the Chinese PMI data (allegedly) has boosted stock markets, assisted later by various European and UK PMI data.
EERF punched through its 100% barrier, currently standing +104% since November 2011.
I accomplished this by mainly investing in house builders and a bank (Barclays, which has been ditched in favour of a different bank).
Only another 500% to go, ......haarrr

The beer fund is holding station at + bugger-all (British for 'not much').
I have not put in a great deal of time this month with my forex trading.
Holidays and visitors have distracted me, but also I still have a few sunken trades open.
TBH I have not paid enough attention to price action, and have far too bearish on the Yen.

....and I have been reading loads of stuff about stocks.
The EERF held above 100% for a few days, then market jitters all around the world sent things pushing back down.
This is mildly surprising because my portfolio does not have much in the way of international companies.
Also the Syrian situation is having a bad effect on pretty much everything, so I hope that is sorted soon and painlessly (although probably it will not be because despots are clinging to power).

The beer fund growth was zero during August. However I have started again with serious attention to forex trading.
Up slightly more than 50% on the year (but less than 51% ) I am working towards a more significant finish by the year-end.
I have begun researching other brokers ready for re-funding next year - always provided that I do not crash along the way.....

Ok, all my visitors have gone and it is back to the market.

Last week I closed a short position in Cable. This was my first serious loser since January, and is a useful reminder to think first....

Also thank you to Helicopter Ben who stood up and, to almost audible gasps, told the world that there would be no tapering, at least not yet. When pressed on some wording he said "I don't think I ever used those words", and I kind-of think he was right in that respect. Anyway the happy consequence was that Fibre and Cable soared (good job I was out!) and so did the stock markets, and so did my bearish Yen positions. My final EJ position (remember that one?) closed at TP, and I have one UJ long waiting for some more shove next week.

I still have some uphill work to finish the month at break-even, and a week to accomplish this.

Wah-haay! Trade explorer is working. That was easy!