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Let's Trade Options

  • #801
  • Jun 24, 2013 7:42pm Jun 24, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I think that's a bear spread, he's selling the 930 and buying the 940 puts.
that would make sense, wonder what month?
  • #802
  • Jun 24, 2013 8:18pm Jun 24, 2013 8:18pm
No, I belive in my signal RUT go up at least 1 or 2 days.
I SELL vertical spread puts near to the lower today in 940 sell and 930 BUY
I recive 0.30 credit in JUN 28 options
I have + theta every day and I sell at the HIGH of volatility.
Both help me for time decay and losing value at the expiration.
Today + 6.7% in value
BUT, I will see closer and If go down I close my position, but if go more high maybe close in profit
or wait for expire friday at open.
  • #803
  • Jun 24, 2013 8:22pm Jun 24, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting successlife
No, I belive in my signal RUT go up at least 1 or 2 days.
OK, I see. I think we're due a bounce in equities this week, too, maybe on the heavy POMO days. But we'll be helped if the housing number comes out good tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #804
  • Jun 24, 2013 8:33pm Jun 24, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OK, I see. I think we're due a bounce in equities this week, too, maybe on the heavy POMO days. But we'll be helped if the housing number comes out good tomorrow.
agree with some sort of a bounce
  • #805
  • Jun 25, 2013 12:11am Jun 25, 2013 12:11am
Tuesday Asian session a repeat of Monday, no flight to gold, will we see a repeat of Monday's spike in US Tnote yield? Not enough panic yet for a flight into treasurys? Gold looking setup for another leg down.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #806
  • Jun 25, 2013 1:42am Jun 25, 2013 1:42am
Hello chaps, firstly to the fool. 1929 is related to now because of an 84 year cycle that moves through the market. This is split into 17 year cycles, as 5X17 is 85 the cycle has a varience hence you cannot make it exactly from one date to another on a year by year basis. The cycles compress and expand slightly, so you have to know where you are in the particular cycle, to allow for this varience.

As I don't trade options but am interested in the potential I would be looking to go short the indexes on or around 5th July, maybe someone would be kind enought to suggest an option.

Kind regards


Mike
  • #807
  • Jun 25, 2013 2:25am Jun 25, 2013 2:25am
Quoting The Fool
Tuesday Asian session a repeat of Monday, no flight to gold, will we see a repeat of Monday's spike in US Tnote yield? Not enough panic yet for a flight into treasurys? Gold looking setup for another leg down.....
better at the close, yield seeking never goes out of style, eyes on the us futures & the $.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #808
  • Jun 25, 2013 2:26am Jun 25, 2013 2:26am
Quoting Mike Haran
Hello chaps, firstly to the fool. 1929 is related to now because of an 84 year cycle that moves through the market. This is split into 17 year cycles, as 5X17 is 85 the cycle has a varience hence you cannot make it exactly from one date to another on a year by year basis. The cycles compress and expand slightly, so you have to know where you are in the particular cycle, to allow for this varience. As I don't trade options but am interested in the potential I would be looking to go short the indexes on or around 5th July, maybe someone would be kind...

I agree with your macro view on cyclical austrian deflationary cycles. I even agree with you about the low being set in 2016.

If you want an intensely bearish vega positive type trade you cant go wrong with a double vertical put spread on SPY. If you are really playing for the long term just buying LEAPS on multiple OTM positions is another way to do it as well. premium for buying options is expensive right now due to the increased volatility though which is why I am more of a fan of spread trading.

As I believe bonds are going to rally HARD should this situation come to pass I am looking for some long term ratio call spreads on TLT once we drop a little bit farther( maybe just below 107) and if that doesnt pan out 97 is a massive level
  • #809
  • Jun 25, 2013 2:40am Jun 25, 2013 2:40am
Quoting Mike Haran
Hello chaps, firstly to the fool. 1929 is related to now because of an 84 year cycle that moves through the market. This is split into 17 year cycles, as 5X17 is 85 the cycle has a varience hence you cannot make it exactly from one date to another on a year by year basis. The cycles compress and expand slightly, so you have to know where you are in the particular cycle, to allow for this varience. As I don't trade options but am interested in the potential I would be looking to go short the indexes on or around 5th July, maybe someone would be kind...
temporal cycles in trading and all aspects of life is a fascinating subject but I don't want to make this a space to discuss that subject at length. On the other hand, if that's what you use to inform your trading decisions then by all means, give your reasons.

As far as what options to trade, I recommend you choose the most liquid ones, they will be cheapest to trade. I trade a lot of etf options, and I like the leveraged etf's, because they pay better, when I'm right. There are lots of options on the various indices; I have puts on SDS running now...if you wanted to short the S&P you'd buy calls on it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #810
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:01am Jun 25, 2013 3:01am
Quoting Mike Haran
Hello chaps, firstly to the fool. 1929 is related to now because of an 84 year cycle that moves through the market. This is split into 17 year cycles, as 5X17 is 85 the cycle has a varience hence you cannot make it exactly from one date to another on a year by year basis. The cycles compress and expand slightly, so you have to know where you are in the particular cycle, to allow for this varience. As I don't trade options but am interested in the potential I would be looking to go short the indexes on or around 5th July,...
that would be a day after independence day, granted there has been the occassional large move in the past but this is due to right inbetween the holiday and extended weekend break in the US plus volume is incredibly light add to the mix NFP but if you already take the moves down then we have already started
  • #811
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:06am Jun 25, 2013 3:06am
china has come out saying tight liquidity is due to seasonal factors and will eventually fade, yeah right you mean the balance of growth change has already started
  • #812
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:15am Jun 25, 2013 3:15am
Guys remember we have EARNINGS SEASON starting be extra careful when trading options. Implied volatility increases making options more expensive, you could huge movements just don't get caught out.

I tend to trade reactions of earnings or look to companies competitors as there options maybe cheaper.

http://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar.asp
  • #813
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:15am Jun 25, 2013 3:15am
Thanks for the great replys I appreciate it very much, some very good suggestions. I will keep you chaps informed on the cycle side as I know it is useful to have half an idea of when a market mightmove.
  • #814
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:25am Jun 25, 2013 3:25am
indexes are higher across europe plus futures in the US, i'm honing on Google for a put come thursday/friday
  • #815
  • Jun 25, 2013 4:04am Jun 25, 2013 4:04am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} i'll be watching TLT this week especially wednesday with GDP coming out, i've got an explosive move reading in the YEN due, trouble is i don't know if its being bought or sold, if its dosn't happen tonight in asia then it s gonna happen when US markets come on line tomorrow
looks like its being bought
  • #816
  • Jun 25, 2013 6:10am Jun 25, 2013 6:10am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} i'll be watching TLT this week especially wednesday with GDP coming out, i've got an explosive move reading in the YEN due, trouble is i don't know if its being bought or sold, if its dosn't happen tonight in asia then it s gonna happen when US markets come on line tomorrow
Gonna try the theory as discussed with T.F. over the weekend, sold USD/Y at 97.38 right now for a lousy mini lot, set s/l at 97.53 take profit open for now. test option theory
  • #817
  • Jun 25, 2013 6:44am Jun 25, 2013 6:44am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Gonna try the theory as discussed with T.F. over the weekend, sold USD/Y at 97.38 right now for a lousy mini lot, set s/l at 97.53 take profit open for now. test option theory
nah don't like this kind of trading, stick with options. I'll keep this trade open win or lose its the last fx trade i'll do
  • #818
  • Jun 25, 2013 6:47am Jun 25, 2013 6:47am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} nah don't like this kind of trading, stick with options. I'll keep this trade open win or lose its the last fx trade i'll do
closed it at 97.42 on the bid side -4 . i'll observe
  • #819
  • Jun 25, 2013 6:49am Jun 25, 2013 6:49am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} closed it at 97.42 on the bid side -4 . i'll observe
ask
  • #820
  • Jun 25, 2013 6:51am Jun 25, 2013 6:51am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} closed it at 97.42 on the bid side -4 . i'll observe
just as i did price now at 97.34/35
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